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A great day for us yesterday as we hit both our 5 Star Pick on the Chicago Blackhawks and our 2 unit pick on the under 5.5 goals between Carolina and Ottawa. A solid 7 unit night for clients while some profited a bit more as Chicago became underdogs by game time. Congrats to everyone on the night.
Moving on, with just one game on the card tonight and we have a play on it so let's check it out:
[2 Unit Pick] Anaheim Ducks @ Dallas Stars - ANAHEIM DUCKS
(Best Odds: -105@5Dimes.com)
(Risking 2.10 units to win 2 units)
-= TOP PLAY =-
NBA Feb 08 '13 (7:05p)
Toronto Raptors vs Indiana Pacers Total
188½ un-105 at 5dimes
20* Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Raptors/Pacers UNDER 188.5
The Toronto Raptors and Indiana Pacers will take part in a defensive battle tonight. The books have set the bar too high in this contest due to recent high-scoring games by both teams, which has forced them to inflate the number.
Indiana was out of character with its back-to-back home wins over Chicago (111-101) and Atlanta (114-103). It got back to reality last time out with an 88-69 road win at Philadelphia. Remember, this is a Pacers team that is scoring just 92.7 points/game and allowing 90.0 points/game on the season.
Toronto lost at home to Boston 95-99 last time out. Its previous three games had all seen 185 or less combined points with a 92-93 loss at Atlanta, a 98-73 home win over the Clippers, and an 85-100 home loss to Miami.
My biggest reason for backing the UNDER tonight is due to the recent history between these teams. The Raptors and Pacers have combined for 185 or less points in four of their last five meetings. That includes both meetings this season with a 74-72 Toronto road victory on November 13th for 146 combined points, and a 90-88 Indiana road win on October 31st for 178 combined points.
Indiana is 10-1 to the UNDER in home games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons. We're seeing an average of 178.8 points/game in this situation. The UNDER is 6-0 in Pacers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
NBA Feb 08 '13 (7:05p)
Brooklyn Nets vs Washington Wizards Total
185½ ov-107 at 5dimes
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Wizards OVER 185.5
The books have set the bar too low tonight in this contest between the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards. I look for a shootout tonight in Washington as both teams go for around 100 points apiece.
One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that the books have missed their mark. Washington and Brooklyn have combined for 197 or more points in each of their last three meetings.
The OVER is 8-3 in Wizards last 11 home games. The OVER is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 Friday games. The OVER is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic division foes. Take the OVER in this game Friday.
NBA Feb 08 '13 (8:05p)
Portland Trailblazers vs Houston Rockets Total
211 ov-110 at betus
15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Blazers/Rockets OVER 211
The Portland Trail Blazers and Houston Rockets will take part in a shootout tonight. Houston plays at a faster pace than any other team in the league, and it will control the tempo tonight playing at home.
Houston is scoring 110.0 points/game and allowing 103.5 points/game at home this season, combining with their opponents for 213.5 points/game. As you can see, that number is above tonight's posted total, giving us value to pull the trigger on the OVER.
The Rockets are hitting on all cylinders right now offensively. They have scored 108 or more points in six straight games, averaging a whopping 118.5 points/game in those six contests.
These teams last met on November 16th in an absolute shootout. Portland beat Houston 119-117 at home in overtime in a game that saw 236 combined points. It was tied 111-111 at the end of regulation for 222 combined points, so overtime was not needed to get the OVER.
The OVER is 4-1 in Blazers last 5 games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in Blazers last 5 vs. Western Conference opponents. The OVER is 8-3 in Rockets last 11 home games. The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.
NBA Feb 08 '13 (8:05p)
Los Angeles Clippers vs Miami Heat Total
195 un-105 at 5dimes
15* Clippers/Heat ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 195
The Los Angeles Clippers and Miami Heat are set to square off on National TV Friday night in what could easily be an NBA Finals preview. I look for defense to reign supreme tonight as both teams get after it on that end of the floor.
The Clippers are really struggling offensively of late because they have no chemistry right now due to injuries to Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and Jamal Crawford. They have scored less than 100 points in 10 of their last 12 games overall. Los Angeles is averaging just 88.3 points/game in its last four contests.
Miami is coming off a very high scoring game against the Houston Rockets last time out, which is a big reason I believe the books have made the mistake of setting this total too high tonight. Miami's previous five games had all seen 193 or less combined points at the end of regulation.
This play falls into a system that is 92-48 (65.7%) to the UNDER over the past 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (MIAMI) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), on Friday nights. A great match-up like this almost always seems to bring out the best defensively in both teams.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 games following a ATS win. The UNDER is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 4-0 in Heat last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. These three trends combined for a 12-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
NBA Feb 08 '13 (10:35p)
Chicago Bulls vs Utah Jazz Chicago Bulls
+4-105 at 5dimes
15* Bulls/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago +4
The Chicago Bulls are one of the most resilient teams in the league thanks in large part to the motivation their players receive from the most underrated head coach in the game in Tom Thibodeau. Off back-to-back blowout loss at Indiana and Denver, I look for them to respond in a big way tonight.
The Bulls have been one of the best road teams in the league this season. They are 14-9 away from home this year with road wins over the likes of Mami, New York, Boston and Atlanta in 2013 alone.
Chicago has had Utah’s number in recent meetings. It has won three straight and six of the last eight meetings in this series, going 6-2 ATS in the process. In fact, its last two wins over the Jazz have come by 14 and 18 points, respectively. This is clearly a team it matches up well against.
The Bulls are 41-21 ATS in their last 62 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Chicago is 36-16-1 against the spread in its last 53 Friday games. Utah is 4-11 against the spread in its last 15 Friday games. The Bulls are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 meetings with the Jazz, and 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 meetings in Utah. Take Chicago Friday.
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