Matt Fargo 10* NBA Enforcer
Golden State
Golden State
| NCAA-B | Feb 12 '13 (7:00p) VIRGINIA TECH vs Virginia Cavaliers |
VIRGINIA TECH +15-110 at betus |
| 15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia Tech +15 The Virginia Tech Hokies are showing some of their best value of the season as a huge road underdog to rival Virginia tonight. I look for this game to go right down to the wire and for the Hokies to easily stay within this inflated number. Virginia is in a big letdown spot here. It is coming off an 80-69 road win at Maryland on Sunday, and it also has road games against UNC and Miami on deck. That makes this a look-ahead spot for the Cavaliers. Also, they will only be playing on one days' rest, so this is a tired team right now. Another reason Virginia will have a hard time getting motivated to play tonight is the fact that it already won at Virginia Tech 74-58 on January 24th in their first meeting of the season. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Cavaliers simply pulled away late. Virginia Tech clearly wants revenge from that defeat, and it has shown that it can hang on the road this season. The Hokies won at Georgia Tech 70-65 as a 10-point underdog, played Clemson to a 70-77 game as an 11.5-point dog, and took North Carolina to overtime as a 16.5-point dog. The Hokies are 8-0 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. They are only losing in this spot 58.6 to 61.6, or by an average of 3.0 points/game. Virginia Tech is 10-2 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Virginia Tech Tuesday. |
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| NBA | Feb 12 '13 (7:35p) Portland Trailblazers vs Miami Heat |
Portland Trailblazers +11½-107 at 5dimes |
| 15* Blazers/Heat NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Portland +11.5 The Portland Trail Blazers are showing solid value as a double-digit road underdog to the Miami Heat Tuesday. Portland comes in highly motivated for a win after dropping three straight road games at Dallas, Houston and Orlando heading in. The Blazers were clearly overlooking the Magic and looking ahead to this game with the defending champion Heat, which is only human nature. I look for them to come out with one of their best efforts of the season to try and get a win to get back to .500 on the season. Miami is coming off a huge win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. It also has a game against defending Western Conference champion Oklahoma City on deck Thursday on TNT. The Heat will clearly be overlooking the Blazers and looking ahead to that showdown with the Thunder. This play falls into a system that is 41-18 (69.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days. Miami is 0-9 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing in this spot 93.2 to 100.3, or by an average of 7.1 points/game. It is clearly overvalued here tonight. Take the Blazers Tuesday. |
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| NBA | Feb 12 '13 (10:35p) Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors |
Golden State Warriors -5-110 at BetOnline |
| 20* Rockets/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -5 The Golden State Warriors will be more motivated for a win tonight than they have been at any other point this season. As a result, I look for them to roll to a blowout home victory over the Houston Rockets Tuesday. Golden State has lost four straight coming in, all of which have come on the road against Western Conference playoff contenders Houston, Oklahoma City, Memphis and Dallas. Now, it returns home where it is 16-6 on the season. The Warriors want some serious payback against the Rockets in this one. They were beaten handily in Houston 109-140 on February 5th just a week ago today. The Rockets made an NBA record-tying 23 three-pointers in the win. That's clearly not going to happen again. Houston is 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games this season. It is losing in this spot 93.1 to 105.4, or by an average of 12.3 points/game. Golden State is 42-24 ATS in home games revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more since 1996. The home team has won five straight and eight of the last nine meetings in this series. The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet the Warriors Tuesday. |
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