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Dave Essler
Friday Cliff Notes
G-Town at Cincinnati: Bearcats looked good against 'Nova (unfortunately) but I really wonder how much of that was Villanova's youth making them look better than they are/were. Clearly they started stroking the ball, but early on when the confidence wasn't there, they threw up bricks. Hoyas have been equally impressive, but for longer. They've got a gimme next while Cincinnati travels to UConn. Clearly though, there is no such thing as a look-ahead right now in this Conference. Hoyas have a bit of a score to settle in that they lost at home to the Bearcats and lost in OT in the Big East Tournament to them as well. Hard to imagine this one going over with two of the top ten defenses in the nation, which is exactly why I might consider it, and that would be mainly because they know each other so well. Not sure I can lay points here, but it's got to be the Bearcats almost as a fade of G'Town's youth, and the fact that they will get to the line more.
Iona at Manhattan: The suddenly surging Jaspers who have won four of their last five and have a score to settle from an earlier loss at Iona, but it was only an eight point loss, so they've got every reason to think they can win this game. Iona first of three straight road games, including a tough on at Fairfield on Monday and the their bracketbuster game at Indiana State next weekend. Given their inability to play much defense and Manhattan's new-found confidence, I clearly lean to the home team here. They'll slow it down, and the Jaspers' have the #1 ranked defense in Conference play in terms of efficiency. And yes, they can defend the perimeter reasonably well.
Columbia at Brown: I suppose Brown could be dangerous here, not having played a home game in almost a month. They are a big, slow, three point shooting team, which can cause issues if they get even luke warm, especially at the pace they'll play. Columbia is almost a mirror image in what they want to do, but the do it just a bit better. Perhaps the biggest difference is that they (Columbia) do get to the line a lot, and are a good FT shooting team, and don't turn the ball over. Always tough to lay those short numbers on the road (for me), but stat-wise there is no other option. Brown capable, they've beaten Niagra and Providence, so this would certainly not be a stretch here.
Niagra at Marist: Niagra could be getting to the point where they're now over valued. That double-ot loss at home to Loyola may have been a tipping point for this young team. Whereas Marist comes in a little warm, having upset Iona on the road and beaten Loyola at home. Marist did play a great non-conference schedule was I can assure has jaded their stats to some extent. Niagra's defense is, from an efficiency standpoint, not that far behind Marist's at all. Marist has a little more experience and a little more length. Just don't like Niagra's situation here. Two Conference road games and the home next weekend against Northwestern State just doesn't sit right with me. Lean Marist for the upset here.
Wisconsin MW at Youngstown State: Youngstown, for all their January ATS wins/betting love, really only has one good win and that was at home over Valpo. Yes, it's hard to back a team as bad as MW, especially on the road, but there is Sunday's game against Green Bay that Valpo could be thinking more about. MW hasn't won a road game, and in fact hasn't really been IN a road game since early January at Wright State. They ARE bigger and they ARE more experienced (OK, older) but can we really take them seriously here. Probably better games or a total will come out, but BECAUSE MW can hit threes once in while, I couldn't rule them out.
Wisc GB at Cleveland State: Green Bay is certainly going to be loved by bettors after beating Detroit, and Cleveland State not-so-much after getting shelled by Detroit in a rare Tuesday (make up) Horizon League game. But, this is the same Cleveland State team that actually beat Detroit at home earlier this season, so let's not be quick to dismiss a home team catching a couple of possessions. GB is in a tough scheduling spot, with three of their last four Conference games on the road, in addition to a game at Drake next weekend. Cleveland State is young and tiny, while GB is one of the biggest teams in the nation. But, they'll play this game slow enough to where I certainly don't see it being a boatrace. GB can in fact be turnover prone, and one of the things the little quick team will do to the big slow team is steal the ball. I just don't know if CS can combat the massive amount of FT's GB usually takes, and makes. -
NCAAB game of the day: Georgetown at Cincinnati
Georgetown Hoyas at Cincinnati Bearcats (-4)
No. 15 Georgetown puts its six-game winning streak on the line against a Cincinnati squad that has had its number in recent years. The Bearcats, who enter the game in seventh place in the Big East, have won four in a row over the Hoyas, including a 72-20 win in double overtime in the Big East championship quarterfinals. Cincinnati also won the regular season matchup, 68-64, at the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.
The Hoyas come into the contest in a three-way tie for first place with Syracuse and Marquette and also on a roll. Georgetown has defeated three ranked teams -- Louisville, Notre Dame and Marquette -- during its win streak and has allowed 60 or more points just once since Jan. 19. The Hoyas, who still have two games remaining with Big East co-leader Syracuse, scored an impressive 63-55 victory over Marquette at home on Monday while Cincinnati comes in off a 68-50 win over Villanova on Tuesday.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
ABOUT GEORGETOWN (18-4, 8-3): Sophomore forward Otto Porter is having a breakout season, leading the team in scoring (15.3), rebounds (7.9) and 3-point shooting percentage (44 percent). He scored a game-high 21 points, grabbed seven rebounds and had three steals in Monday's win over Marquette. Junior guard Markel Starks ranks second on the team in scoring (12.4) while making a team-best 38 3-pointers while 6-8 junior forward Nate Lubick is shooting a Big East leading 61.7 percent from the floor. But the Hoyas' strength is hard-nosed defense. Georgetown ranks eighth in the nation in scoring defense (55.7) and 11th in field goal percentage defense (37.6). The Hoyas, who scored 24 points off 19 Marquette turnovers Monday, have held their last five opponents to an average of 54 points.
ABOUT CINCINNATI (19-6, 7-5): The Bearcats have won six of the last seven meetings with Georgetown including two of three played at home. Cincinnati is led by Big East Player of the Year candidate Sean Kilpatrick, a 6-4 junior shooting guard who ranks fourth in the conference in scoring (18.2) and is second in 3-pointers made (2.68 per game) and has attracted strong attention from NBA scouts. Senior point guard Cashmere Wright is second on the team in scoring (13.4) while another guard, senior JaQuon Parker, also averages in double figures (10.9). The trio combined for 49 points in Tuesday's win over Villanova. Like Georgetown, the Bearcats get it done on the defensive end where they are holding opponents almost 13 points below their average in Big East play.
TRENDS:
* Hoyas are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Bearcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Hoyas are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Hoyas are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
TIP-INS:
1. The 6-8 Porter ranks third in the Big East in 3-point shooting percentage (44.3).
2. Wright needs one steal to become the school career leader. He is currently tied with David "Puffy" Kennedy who had 189 from 1977-81.
3. Cincinnati ranks 11th in the nation in rebounding margin (plus-8.0) and has out-rebounded 20 of its 25 opponents this season.Comment
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JACK JONES
20* Georgetown / Cincinnati ESPN Friday No-Brainer
Georgetown +4Comment
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Sharks at Blackhawks: What Bettors Need to Know
San Jose Sharks at Chicago Blackhawks (-145, 5.5)
Still in search of their first win this month, the San Jose Sharks will attempt to do something on Friday no team has been able to achieve thus far this season - defeat the Chicago Blackhawks in regulation. San Jose ran the table in January, beginning the abbreviated campaign with seven straight victories. The club's fortunes have changed completely in February as the Sharks have gone 0-3-3, scoring more than two goals only once during the winless streak while being shut out twice.
San Jose, which is 0-1-1 on its six-game road trip, would like nothing better than to be the first team to prevent Chicago from earning at least one point. The Blackhawks started the season with a six-game winning streak before falling in a shootout to the Wild in Minnesota on Jan. 30. They have gone 4-0-2 since, including a 3-2 shootout loss to the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday in the opener of their seven-game homestand. Chicago is four away from setting the NHL record for most games without a regulation loss to start a season - a mark currently owned by the 2006-07 Ducks, who opened the campaign 12-0-4.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NHL Network, CSN California (San Jose), CSN (Chicago)
ABOUT THE SHARKS (7-3-3): Matt Pelech's first stint with San Jose lasted just one game as the right wing was assigned to Worcester of the American Hockey League on Wednesday. Pelech, who appeared in five contests with the Calgary Flames during his only previous season in the NHL in 2008-09, had 11:23 of ice time while engaging in a fight against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Monday but was a healthy scratch for the 1-0 overtime loss to the Nashville Predators the following night. The Sharks are hoping to avenge a 5-3 home loss on Feb. 5 in which it squandered a pair of two-goal leads in the first period.
ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS (10-0-3): Nearly everything is clicking for Chicago thus far this season. The one part of its game that needs work, however, is the power play. The Blackhawks rank 16th in the league at 18.2 percent after a 1-for-6 performance on Tuesday. They spent all but 1:20 of overtime with the man advantage but were unable to produce the winning goal. Patrick Kane had his five-game goal-scoring streak snapped against Anaheim but extended his point streak to seven contests with an assist. Kane, who is tied for second in the league in scoring with 20 points, has gotten his name on the scoresheet in all but one of Chicago's 13 games.
TRENDS:
* Home team is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Blackhawks’ last six home games.
* Under is 8-2 in Sharks’ last 10 overall.
* Blackhawks are 5-1 in their last six vs. Pacific foes.
OVERTIME:
1. San Jose returns to Chicago next Friday for the fifth game of its road trip.
2. The Blackhawks had played only twice at the United Center before hosting Anaheim on Tuesday.
3. The Sharks are 2-for-34 on the power play over their last eight contests.Comment
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CBB
-- Columbia won six of last eight games vs Brown, with home sides 4-0 in last four series games; Lions lost last two visits here, by 8-16 points. Losing side scored 74+ points in three of last four meetings. Ivy League home underdogs are 4-2 vs spread. Lions lost four of last five, but upset Harvard last game; they're 0-2 on Ivy road, losing by 4-6 points at Penn, Princeton. Brown lost four of last five games, but all five were on road.
-- Cornell is 11-6 in last 17 games vs Yale, with home side winning last four; Big Red lost last two visits here, by 1-31 points. Cornell won two of three on Ivy road, with wins by 2-3 points- three of their last five games were decided by 3 or less points. Yale is 3-3 in Ivy, 3-0 when it allows 64 or less points, 0-3 when it allows more. Cornell scored 65+ points in all six of its conference games.
-- Princeton won its last six games vs Dartmouth, winning last four here, by 5-16-22-24 points; Tigers are 4-1 in Ivy, with three wins by 12+, but all those games were at home. Dartmouth is 2-4 in Ivy, turning ball over 23.8% of time in league- they allowed 75+ points in three of four losses, gave up 62-57 in its two wins. Ivy League home underdogs are 4-2 vs spread. Princeton is 3-3 on road, winning at Kent State/Elon.
-- Harvard is 5-1 in Ivy, but 0-6 vs spread, with no wins by more than 10 points, and two in OT; they've won six of last seven games vs Penn, but three of last five series games were decided by a single point. Penn lost its only Ivy road game by 12 at Princeton; they won at Harvard LY, after losing here previous two years, by 14-15 points. Ivy League double digit home favorites are 2-6 against the spread.
-- Milwaukee is 2-10 in Horizon, 0-5 on road, losing by 15-2-11-10-31 points; they're turning ball over 22.1% of time, making 28.8% of its 3's. Youngstown made 56% of 2-point shots, won 75-72 (-3) at Milwaukee Jan 19, its third win in row vs Panthers, by 2-8-3 points. Penguins lost three of last four games, with win by a point; they're 3-2 in Horizon home games, winning by 7-14-12. Horizon League home favorites of 8+ points are 11-7 vs spread.
-- Cincinnati won six of last seven games with Georgetown, winning last four, by 12-22-4-2 points, with double OT win in conference tourney LY. Cincy won three of last four home games, winning by 2-8-18; they held five of last six opponents under 60 points. Big East home favorites of 5 or less points are 2-15 vs spread. Georgetown won/covered last six games, with wins at Notre Dame/Rutgers.
-- Home side won 10 of last 11 Green Bay-Cleveland State games, with Phoenix losing last five visits here, by 17-8-14-7-10 points., but Vikings lost six of last eight games, with four of last five losses by 12+ points. Green Bay won seven of last ten games; they're 2-4 on Ivy road, winning by 20-8 points. Horizon League home underdogs of 5 or less points are 9-6 vs spread. Cleveland State allowed 86 ppg in last two games.
-- Iona (-13) beat Manhattan 78-70 Jan 6, making 10-19 from arc, with 19 forced turnovers; Gaels won four of last five series games, winning its last two visits here, by 37-12 points. Iona lost three of last four games, with two OT losses; they've also lost three of last four on road. Jaspers won last three games, allowing 47.7 ppg; they've won three of last four at home. MAAC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 6-4 vs spread.
-- Niagara shot 58% inside arc, raced out to 51-30 halftime lead as they drilled Marist 94-72 (-10.5) Jan 3; home teams won last six series games, with Eagles losing last two visits here, by 8-12 points. Niagara lost last three games, allowing 79.3 ppg; they've won five of last six conference road games. Marist's last five games were decided by 6 or less points. MAAC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 6-4 vs spread.Comment
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NHL
Hot teams
-- Bruins won six of their last eight games.
-- Penguins won six of their last eight games.
-- New Jersey won five of its last six games. Flyers won four of last six games, but lost four of last five on road.
-- Ducks won six of their last seven games. Detroit won three of last four.
-- Chicago won four of its last five games.
-- Vancouver won its last six games, outscoring opponents 19-6. Dallas Stars won four of their last five games.
Cold teams
-- Sabres lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Winnipeg lost five of its last seven games.
-- San Jose lost its last six games, outscored 17-7.
-- Blues lost five of their last six games. Calgary lost four of last six at home.
-- Los Angeles lost four of its last six games. Blue Jackets lost five of last seven.
Totals
-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Buffalo-Boston games.
-- Five of last seven Penguin-Jet games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Philly road games stayed under total.
-- Eight of last ten Anaheim games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Chicago-San Jose games went over total.
-- Eight of last ten St Louis-Calgary games stayed under.
-- Under is 7-1-2 in last ten Vancouver games.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Columbus-LA games.
Series records
-- Bruins won three of last four games against Buffalo.
-- Penguins won 15 of last 18 games against Winnipeg.
-- Devils won their last five games against Philly.
-- Red Wings won six of last eight games with Anaheim.
-- Blackhawks won four of last six games with San Jose.
-- Blues won three of last four games against Calgary.
-- Canucks won seven of last ten games with Dallas.
-- Kings won nine of last twelve games against Columbus.Comment
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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index
02/15/13 Predictions
Season
Straight Up: 2930-996 (.746)
ATS: 1322-1371 (.491)
ATS Vary Units: 3898-4235 (.479)
Over/Under: 361-347 (.510)
Over/Under Vary Units: 389-409 (.487)
Atlantic Sun Conference
JACKSONVILLE 73, North Florida 69
Big East Conference
CINCINNATI 57, Georgetown 55
Horizon League
Green Bay 66, CLEVELAND STATE 62
YOUNGSTOWN STATE 73, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 61
Ivy League
Columbia vs. BROWN: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
HARVARD 72, Penn 57
Princeton 65, DARTMOUTH 52
YALE 69, Cornell 64
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
MANHATTAN 74, Iona 73
Niagara 77, MARIST 74Comment
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DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index
02/15/13 Predictions
Season: 61-50 (.550)
Boston vs. BUFFALO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NEW JERSEY 3, Philadelphia 2
Pittsburgh 4, WINNIPEG 3
Anaheim vs. DETROIT: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
CHICAGO 3, San Jose 2
St. Louis vs. CALGARY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
VANCOUVER 3, Dallas 2
LOS ANGELES 3, Columbus 2Comment
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Mighty Quinn
Mighty hit with Arkansas State (-8 1/2) Thursday.
Friday it’s Columbia. The surplus is 5 sirignanos.Comment
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Gamblers Data
Free Play Friday
Boston Bruins -145Comment
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
Our Free Plays are 981- 733 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !
Free Winner FRI -5 Wisc-GBComment
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NCAA Basketball Picks
Georgetown at Cincinnati
The Hoyas look to take advantage of a Cincinnati team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 home games. Georgetown is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's games.
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 15
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. ESTGame 801-802: Columbia at Brown (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 48.933; Brown 52.690
Dunkel Line: Brown by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Columbia by 4
Dunkel Pick: Brown (+4)Game 803-804: Cornell at Yale (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 51.360; Yale 52.343
Dunkel Line: Yale by 1
Vegas Line: Yale by 5
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (+5)Game 805-806: Princeton at Dartmouth (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 57.189; Dartmouth 51.569
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Princeton by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dartmouth (+9 1/2)Game 807-808: Pennsylvania at Harvard (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 47.062; Harvard 62.405
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Harvard by 11
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-11)Game 809-810: WI-Milwaukee at Youngstown State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 43.590; Youngstown State 57.660
Dunkel Line: Youngstown State by 12
Vegas Line: Youngstown State by 10
Dunkel Pick: Youngstown State (-10)Game 811-812: Georgetown at Cincinnati (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 69.944; Cincinnati 70.035
Dunkel Line: Even; 113
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 117
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (+3 1/2); UnderGame 813-814: WI-Green Bay at Cleveland State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 58.557; Cleveland State 53.071
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 5 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 4 1/2; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-4 1/2); OverGame 815-816: Iona at Manhattan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 58.383; Manhattan 54.571
Dunkel Line: Iona by 4; 140
Vegas Line: Iona by 2 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-2 1/2); UnderGame 817-818: Niagara at Marist (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 56.967; Marist 47.026
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 10
Vegas Line: Niagara by 4
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-4)Comment
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Today's NHL Picks
Dallas at Vancouver
The Stars look to bounce back from their 7-4 loss to Calgary and build on their 12-4 record in their last 16 games following a defeat by 3 goals or more. Dallas is the pick (+170) according to Dunkel, which has the Stars favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+170). Here are all of today's picks.
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 15
Time Posted 6:30 a.m. ESTGame 51-52: Boston at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 10.729; Buffalo 11.472
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+125); OverGame 53-54: Pittsburgh at Winnipeg (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.162; Winnipeg 10.741
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-135); UnderGame 55-56: Philadelphia at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.211; New Jersey 12.141
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-145); UnderGame 57-58: Anaheim at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.294; Detroit 11.546
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+115); OverGame 59-60: San Jose at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.304; Chicago 12.502
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-145); OverGame 61-62: St. Louis at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.524; Calgary 10.462
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); UnderGame 63-64: Dallas at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 12.322; Vancouver 11.435
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+170); OverGame 65-66: Columbus at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.246; Los Angeles 11.504
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-210); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-210); UnderComment
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Hockey Crusher
Chicago Blackhawks -140 over San Jose Sharks
(System Record: 13-1, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 13-11
Basketball Crusher
Georgetown +4 over Cincy
(System Record: 61-3, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 61-41-1
Soccer Crusher
Racing Club + Argentinos Juniors UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 355-14, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 355-311-42Comment
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