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Dave Essler
CBB Saturday Cliff Notes
UVA at North Carolina: I guess the obvious first question is whether UNC has any energy/emotion after playing Duke to the wire, and getting mauled by Miami before that. The only home loss they've got was to Miami. They're sitting at 6-5 and actually two full games behind UVA in the ACC. The slight issue with UVA is that they also travel to Miami on Tuesday, but in this particular situation, and the fact that UVA is not a perennial power, they're not (probably) looking ahead here. They lost here badly to the Heels last season. The dichotomy here is that you've got one of THE slowest teams against perhaps THE fastest team, so this really will come down to a battle of will for tempo. I like UVA to take them down. If they're going to shoot three's all day, then that's the worst part of the UNC defense. Neither team gets to the FT line a ton, but UNC doesn't make them when they do. Even though neither team has much experience, if certainly feels like the Cavaliers have a lot more. They haven't been impressive on the road, but after that Maryland beating, I wouldn't put it past them here.
Pittsburgh at Marquette: I'm not a huge fan of either right now, Marquette was completely owned by G-town, and I said this morning I felt that the Panthers were the worst team in the top 20. However, this is a rematch of an earlier Marquette win this season AT Pittsburgh. That was their only decent road win, too. And the Panthers will be favored and will have had an extra few days to prepare for this game. You have to like the Panthers inside game against a size-challenged Marquette front-court, but what does concern me is Pitt's free throw shooting (or lack of at time) while Marquette, at home, should get some calls and has been an excellent FT shooting team. FT's and rebounding are what's going to win these wars in the last couple of weeks. Have to give the Panthers' defense the over riding, scale-tipping lean here, but I'll be damned if I'll lay points on the road in most any conference. This could be case of using Marquette in a teaser, because they'll already catch a couple, and this will (should) be a low scoring (hint) game.
San Diego State at UNLV: Well, I guess everyone assumes now that UNLV is back in Las Vegas that it's showtime, especially given SDSU's loss at Colorado State. The Aztecs lost to the Rebels a month ago in San Diego (obviously) in a game where they (UNLV) owned everything. They dominated the boards, took 51 shots, and held SDSU to 3-19 from behind the arc. Almost for that reason we SHOULD take SDSU here, but we've got to get past their road woes, first. Their only road wins were at Nevada and at Fresno (barely). And well these two have been under-performing, it;s now New Mexico and CSU that pretty much own the MWC's first and second seeds. UNLV probably doesn't give a shit, seeing as how that tournament's on their home court. Rebels clearly have the easier schedule going forward with for game at home, but they've got perhaps a bigger game with CSU Wednesday. Obviously my biggest concern is UNLV's turnovers. SDSU is number #1 in protecting the ball, too. Don't trust either team at the line. Comes down to another battle for tempo here. These guys played two two-point games last season, and this one could be no different. I suppose it will depend on the number, Scotty, or someone in Las Vegas who knows which team(s) will show up. But, since it's a late game we'll all wanna know, one way or the other. Clearly more value to me in lesser marquee games, so far.
Baylor at K-State: Very big game for both teams. K-State in a three way tie for first in the Conference and Baylor sitting a game back. I suppose people will now assume K-State sucks because they got reamed by Kansas, which was predictable. But, their only home loss was to those same Jayhawks. (K-State will beat them the third time) so winning here is not going to be easy for Baylor. I've said it several times, teams seeing K-State for the first time are seeing Bruce Weber, not Frank Martin. Baylor hasn't played anyone any good over the last couple of weeks, and really has zero quality road wins. Honestly, with the schedule they've got left if they're not careful it's the NIT for these guys. K-State will S-L-O-W this game down, and they have typically owned the offensive glass, so right off I lean under here, given that neither team gets to the line (surprising for Baylor's height, actually) and when they do neither one shoots 70%, which is not good enough for the over.
Missouri at Arkansas: Well, are the Tigers back now or is the the Arkansas team that drilled Florida. I'd like to have been catching a few more points with the Hogs, because even though this is a rivalry of sorts, Missouri is at Florida. That's not a situation I want to back them in, so it's probably going to be Hogs or pass. No doubt that total will be set high, since Missouri doesn't create a lot of them, I could make a case for the total going over. But, my guess is that the number will be bet up fairly quickly. Both defenses are near the bottom of the SEC in defending three pointers, so this really could be the race to 80. Missouri shooting nearly 78% from the line in Conference play, and Arkansas just doesn't rebound well (Missouri does) which also means some fast break chances. If and how Arkansas scores is probably totally dependent on their mindset. The team that hit them from the rafters against Florida is not the team we know, but we DO know that the capability is there. Best bet here is the over, IMO.
Detroit at Valpo: Who knew that Valpo would be a full two games clear of Detroit in the Horizon League, with a shot a essentially clinching it at home this early, or at least the number one seed. New landscape without Butler. The downside is that Detroit will do anything and everything here, because obviously a loss and they are simply playing for post season somewhere, and they've got to avenge at loss Valpo handed them in Detroit a while back. Valpo been freakish at home, and Detroit did lose on the road to Cleveland State. The issue I have with Detroit is that they've got the Bracketbuster game at Witchita State next week, so they can ALMOST afford a loss, win that (not likely) and do well in the Conference Tournament and play somewhere in March. Valpo gets EKU at home next Saturday, but the do have a Conference road game Tuesday AT Loyola Chicago. Valpo will turn the ball over and Detroit won't, so that could be the great equalizer. Between that and both teams rebounding well, if Valpo can play it more at their pace, I lean under.
CBB Saturday Cliff Notes
UVA at North Carolina: I guess the obvious first question is whether UNC has any energy/emotion after playing Duke to the wire, and getting mauled by Miami before that. The only home loss they've got was to Miami. They're sitting at 6-5 and actually two full games behind UVA in the ACC. The slight issue with UVA is that they also travel to Miami on Tuesday, but in this particular situation, and the fact that UVA is not a perennial power, they're not (probably) looking ahead here. They lost here badly to the Heels last season. The dichotomy here is that you've got one of THE slowest teams against perhaps THE fastest team, so this really will come down to a battle of will for tempo. I like UVA to take them down. If they're going to shoot three's all day, then that's the worst part of the UNC defense. Neither team gets to the FT line a ton, but UNC doesn't make them when they do. Even though neither team has much experience, if certainly feels like the Cavaliers have a lot more. They haven't been impressive on the road, but after that Maryland beating, I wouldn't put it past them here.
Pittsburgh at Marquette: I'm not a huge fan of either right now, Marquette was completely owned by G-town, and I said this morning I felt that the Panthers were the worst team in the top 20. However, this is a rematch of an earlier Marquette win this season AT Pittsburgh. That was their only decent road win, too. And the Panthers will be favored and will have had an extra few days to prepare for this game. You have to like the Panthers inside game against a size-challenged Marquette front-court, but what does concern me is Pitt's free throw shooting (or lack of at time) while Marquette, at home, should get some calls and has been an excellent FT shooting team. FT's and rebounding are what's going to win these wars in the last couple of weeks. Have to give the Panthers' defense the over riding, scale-tipping lean here, but I'll be damned if I'll lay points on the road in most any conference. This could be case of using Marquette in a teaser, because they'll already catch a couple, and this will (should) be a low scoring (hint) game.
San Diego State at UNLV: Well, I guess everyone assumes now that UNLV is back in Las Vegas that it's showtime, especially given SDSU's loss at Colorado State. The Aztecs lost to the Rebels a month ago in San Diego (obviously) in a game where they (UNLV) owned everything. They dominated the boards, took 51 shots, and held SDSU to 3-19 from behind the arc. Almost for that reason we SHOULD take SDSU here, but we've got to get past their road woes, first. Their only road wins were at Nevada and at Fresno (barely). And well these two have been under-performing, it;s now New Mexico and CSU that pretty much own the MWC's first and second seeds. UNLV probably doesn't give a shit, seeing as how that tournament's on their home court. Rebels clearly have the easier schedule going forward with for game at home, but they've got perhaps a bigger game with CSU Wednesday. Obviously my biggest concern is UNLV's turnovers. SDSU is number #1 in protecting the ball, too. Don't trust either team at the line. Comes down to another battle for tempo here. These guys played two two-point games last season, and this one could be no different. I suppose it will depend on the number, Scotty, or someone in Las Vegas who knows which team(s) will show up. But, since it's a late game we'll all wanna know, one way or the other. Clearly more value to me in lesser marquee games, so far.
Baylor at K-State: Very big game for both teams. K-State in a three way tie for first in the Conference and Baylor sitting a game back. I suppose people will now assume K-State sucks because they got reamed by Kansas, which was predictable. But, their only home loss was to those same Jayhawks. (K-State will beat them the third time) so winning here is not going to be easy for Baylor. I've said it several times, teams seeing K-State for the first time are seeing Bruce Weber, not Frank Martin. Baylor hasn't played anyone any good over the last couple of weeks, and really has zero quality road wins. Honestly, with the schedule they've got left if they're not careful it's the NIT for these guys. K-State will S-L-O-W this game down, and they have typically owned the offensive glass, so right off I lean under here, given that neither team gets to the line (surprising for Baylor's height, actually) and when they do neither one shoots 70%, which is not good enough for the over.
Missouri at Arkansas: Well, are the Tigers back now or is the the Arkansas team that drilled Florida. I'd like to have been catching a few more points with the Hogs, because even though this is a rivalry of sorts, Missouri is at Florida. That's not a situation I want to back them in, so it's probably going to be Hogs or pass. No doubt that total will be set high, since Missouri doesn't create a lot of them, I could make a case for the total going over. But, my guess is that the number will be bet up fairly quickly. Both defenses are near the bottom of the SEC in defending three pointers, so this really could be the race to 80. Missouri shooting nearly 78% from the line in Conference play, and Arkansas just doesn't rebound well (Missouri does) which also means some fast break chances. If and how Arkansas scores is probably totally dependent on their mindset. The team that hit them from the rafters against Florida is not the team we know, but we DO know that the capability is there. Best bet here is the over, IMO.
Detroit at Valpo: Who knew that Valpo would be a full two games clear of Detroit in the Horizon League, with a shot a essentially clinching it at home this early, or at least the number one seed. New landscape without Butler. The downside is that Detroit will do anything and everything here, because obviously a loss and they are simply playing for post season somewhere, and they've got to avenge at loss Valpo handed them in Detroit a while back. Valpo been freakish at home, and Detroit did lose on the road to Cleveland State. The issue I have with Detroit is that they've got the Bracketbuster game at Witchita State next week, so they can ALMOST afford a loss, win that (not likely) and do well in the Conference Tournament and play somewhere in March. Valpo gets EKU at home next Saturday, but the do have a Conference road game Tuesday AT Loyola Chicago. Valpo will turn the ball over and Detroit won't, so that could be the great equalizer. Between that and both teams rebounding well, if Valpo can play it more at their pace, I lean under.
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