2-18-13

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Notre Dame at Pitt: What bettors need to know

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers (-10.5, 125)

Barring a major collapse, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh can expect to be two of the 68 teams to have their names announced during the NCAA Tournament Selection Show on March 17. Monday's meeting in Pittsburgh, though, could prove crucial as the winner would likely have the inside track to a better seed. But first, the Fighting Irish and Panthers are tied for fifth at 8-5 in the congested and competitive Big East, where a top-10 finish earns a first-round conference tournament bye and winding up in the top four comes with a double bye.

Both teams lost Saturday, with weary Notre Dame losing 71-54 at Providence and Pittsburgh falling at Marquette 79-69. The Fighting Irish have played three overtime games in their last five contests, including their epic five-OT victory over Louisville on Feb. 9, so Monday's quick turnaround - their third game in six days - is sure to test their fitness. The Panthers, who have won four straight Big East games at home, prevailed 62-52 at Cincinnati on Feb. 9 in their previous game prior to Saturday.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (20-6, 8-5 Big East): Coach Mike Bray summed up Saturday's loss in which his team trailed by as many as 24 points: “That was the varsity versus the JV a little bit today.” Notre Dame lost its previous road game 63-47 at Syracuse on Feb. 4 after winning two straight away from home against DePaul and South Florida, who are a combined 3-22 in Big East games. Conference player of the year candidate Jack Cooley, a 6-9 senior forward, leads the team in scoring (14.6) and rebounding (11.2), and has recorded six consecutive double-doubles. Notre Dame, which has won four straight over Pittsburgh, has also received strong guard play from Jerian Grant (13 points, 5.8 assists) and Eric Atkins (11.7, 5.9).

ABOUT PITTSBURGH (20-6, 8-5): The Panthers can be excused somewhat for Saturday's loss, as Marquette has won 23 straight at home, and Pittsburgh certainly understands what it's like to dominate at home. The Panthers are 178-21 at their Petersen Events Center since it opened in 2002, including 10-2 this season. Pittsburgh averages 71 points, but hasn't scored more than 69 in its last five games. On Monday, the Panthers wrap up a stretch where they will have played five ranked opponents in their last six contests. Pittsburgh, though, sports the No. 1 scoring defense in the Big East at 55.4 points. Guard Tray Woodall (10.9 points), and forwards Lamar Patterson (10.5) and Talib Zanna (10.3) lead a balanced scoring attack.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

TIP-INS:

1. Ten of the 15 teams in the Big East are 7-6 or better in conference games.

2. Notre Dame is second in the country in assists at 17.9 per game, while Pittsburgh is tied for seventh at 17, led by Woodall's 5.5.

3. Pittsburgh and Notre Dame are 1-2 in the Big East in field goal percentage at 48.02 to 47.96.

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Hurricanes at Canadiens: What bettors need to know

Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens (-140, 5.5)

The Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes will both be trying for their fourth straight victory when they meet in Montreal on Monday. The Hurricanes have won each of their last three games by a two-goal margin, while the Canadiens defeated Tampa Bay 4-3 in a shootout and Florida 1-0 in overtime before posting a 4-1 home win over Philadelphia on Saturday. Backup goaltender Peter Budaj made 18 saves in that game for his first victory of the season. Montreal forward Rene Bourque has goals in his last two games, scoring the overtime winner against Florida and adding a late goal on Saturday.

Hurricanes forward Jiri Tlusty has four goals in the last three games, while captain Eric Staal is riding a 10-game point streak during which he has all of his team-leading 17 points this season. Staal has a goal and four assists in the winning streak. Starting goaltender Cam Ward is 4-0-1 in his last five starts with a .927 save percentage after starting the season 1-3-1. Carolina defenseman Joe Corvo has responded to being a healthy scratch for three games with two goals and four assists in his last five games. Corvo had a goal and an assist in a 3-1 win over Toronto on Thursday.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, NHL Network (U.S.), Fox Sports Carolinas (Carolina), TSN Habs (Montreal)

ABOUT THE HURRICANES (8-4-1): Jeff Skinner leads the team with five power-play points and 57 shots. Skinner is second behind Staal with 14 points thus far. Carolina was 4-1-1 on a recent six-game road trip to improve its away record to 5-2-1 this season. Jordan Staal leads the team with 10 assists and is tied with defenseman Tim Gleason for the team lead with 24 hits. Carolina is 3-for-8 with the man advantage in its last two games.

ABOUT THE CANADIENS (9-4-1): Carey Price is 8-3-0 on the season and made 26 saves against Florida for his first shutout of the season. Tomas Plekanec leads the team with 12 points. Rookie Alex Galchenyuk has eight points, but only one assist in his last seven games. Montreal is 1-for-18 on the power play in its last four games after starting the season with at least one man-advantage goal in each of its first seven games.

TRENDS:

* Hurricanes are 7-1 in their last eight Monday games.
* Canadiens are 5-0 in their last five vs. Southeast foes.
* Under is 4-0 in Hurricanes’ last four vs. Northeast opposition.
* Under is 4-0 in Canadiens’ last four games following a win.

OVERTIME:

1. Montreal has one win in its last three home games. The Canadiens lost 2-1 to Boston and 6-0 to Toronto before defeating Philadelphia at Bell Centre.

2. The Hurricanes won their last game in Montreal 5-3 on Feb. 13, 2012.

3. Eric Staal has 34 points in 30 career games against the Canadiens. Plekanec has 30 points in 27 career games against the Hurricanes.

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Four NHL goalies making under bettors happy

Every NHL bettor knows that evaluating the starting goaltenders in any given matchup is a key part of the handicapping process.

Here’s a look at four goalies bettors didn’t expect to be good under plays early in the season:

Roberto Luongo (0-5-1 O/U)

Roberto Luongo has silenced his critics with a hot start and is forcing head coach Alain Vigneault to reconsider him as the team’s main option in goal. Luongo is off to a 4-0-2 start and has an impressive 1.45 GAA and a sparkling .943 save percentage.

Craig Anderson (3-10 O/U)

Anderson has been outstanding for the Senators, posting a 7-4 record and a league-best .948 save percentage. Ottawa has struggled to score since losing Jason Spezza (back) and Erik Karlsson (Achilles) to long-term injuries and should continue to be a good under play even if Anderson comes back to reality in the weeks to come.

Viktor Fasth (2-6-1 O/U)

Fasth has been a savior early in the season for the Ducks, stepping up huge in the absence of Jonas Hiller (groin). The 30-year-old rookie has a perfect 8-0 record with a 1.78 GAA and .933 save percentage in nine appearances. With Hiller on the mend, a goalie controversy is brewing in Anaheim.

Corey Crawford (2-8 O/U)

Crawford is off to a blistering 7-0-3 start with a 1.65 GAA and .935 save percentage in 10 games. The 28-year-old has been out for Chicago’s past two games with an upper-body injury, but he should be back in between the pipes soon and is considered day-to-day.

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Tracking NBA season win totals

The NBA All-Star break gives bettors a chance to catch a breather and reflect on their NBA bets to this point in the season.

Let’s take a look at three teams that should have no difficulty exceeding their season win totals and three teams that will need a miracle in order to meet bettors' expectations.

Three teams that will be hard-pressed to exceed their season win total

Los Angeles Lakers

Current wins: 25
Season win total: 56.5
Projected: 38 wins

This season has been nothing short of a train wreck for the Lakers and their bettors, unless you've been fading them.

Boston Celtics

Current wins: 28
Season win total: 50.5
Projected: 44 wins

The Celtics will have to endure the stretch run without stud PG Rajon Rondo (ACL). Boston may struggle to play .500 ball down the stretch and qualify for the playoffs.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Current wins: 19
Season win total 41
Projected: 31.5 wins

Oddsmakers were projecting the Timberwolves to be a .500 team, but they weren’t anticipating a long-term injury to F Kevin Love.

Three teams that are already closing in on their season win total

Houston Rockets

Current wins: 29
Season win total: 32
Projected: 43.5

The acquisition of James Harden improved this team more than oddsmakers had anticipated. Harden’s 26.1 points per game is a huge jump from his 16.8 average as a member of the Thunder last season.

Golden State Warriors

Current wins: 30
Season win total: 36.5
Projected: 47 wins

The Warriors only need seven wins over their final 30 games to eclipse their season win total. But what bettors are really keeping an eye on is Golden State’s 33-18-1 O/U record.

Portland Trail Blazers

Current wins: 25
Season win total: 34
Projected: 39 wins

The Blazers skidded into the break on a five-game losing streak, but they’re still looking like a lock to surpass their 34-win total because of an outstanding 17-8 SU record at home.

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NBA toughest and easiest schedules out of the break

Let’s have a look at three NBA teams with generous schedules and three squads dreading their stretch run after the All-Star break:

Teams that should finish strong

Denver Nuggets (33-21 SU, 32-22 ATS, 33-21 O/U)

The Nuggets have been a good bet to this point and there’s no reason to think that will change after the break. Denver has a 22-3 (17-8 ATS) record at home and is one of the best over plays in the Association. The Nuggets will play 16 of their final 28 games at Pepsi Center, where they average 109.2 points per contest. Denver has already played the bulk of its road games and won’t be away from home for more than a two-game stretch at a time for the remainder of the season.

Golden State Warriors (30-22 SU, 27-24-1 ATS, 33-18-1 O/U)

Much like the Nuggets, the Warriors have played a ton of road games early on. Golden State has posted an impressive 16-7 home record (13-10 ATS) and also held its own on the road early on with a 14-15 (14-14-1 ATS) mark. But what bettors really love about the Warriors is their tendency to play over totals. Golden State will be in a perfect position to close out the season strong, as only six of its final 22 games will be played away from Oracle Arena.

San Antonio Spurs (42-12 SU, 30-22-2 ATS, 25-28-1 O/U)

The Spurs limped into the break as Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are dealing with various injuries. The All-Star festivities break up a grueling nine-game road trip for San Antonio, which picks back up in Sacramento on Tuesday. It’s clear sailing for the Spurs after that, with 17 of their final 24 contests to be played at the friendly confines of the AT&T Center. Perhaps no team will benefit more from the comforts of home during the final stretch than the aging Spurs.

Teams that are dreading the stretch run

Boston Celtics (28-24 SU, 21-28-3 ATS, 25-26-1 O/U)

Sure, the Celtics went on a seven-game ATS tear after Rajon Rondo went down with a season-ending ACL injury, but reality should settle in for Boston after the break. The Celtics failed to cover in their final two games before All-Star Weekend and now Paul Pierce is dealing with a pinched nerve in his neck. Boston has only played 23 road games to this point, and will playing a ton of games away from Beantown. The Celtics have been a fade on the road, posting a 7-15-1 ATS record.

Philadelphia 76ers (22-29 SU, 24-27 ATS, 24-25-2 O/U)

NBA schedule-makers were not kind to the Sixers this year. Philadelphia was bombarded with road games to start the campaign and just wrapped up a stretch where it played 12 of 14 games at Wells ***** Center. The Sixers will once again be banished to the road to close out the season. Philly finishes with a daunting stretch that sees it play 12 of its final 16 games away from the City of Brotherly Love, but that doesn’t mean bettors should shy away from the Sixers, who have been a good under bet (6-14-2 O/U) on the road to date.

Memphis Grizzlies (33-18 SU, 29-21-1 ATS, 21-29-1 O/U)

The team dynamic of the Grizzlies has changed since the departure of Rudy Gay. Bettors were turning a huge profit on defense-happy Memphis prior to the deal, but now the Grizzlies are having trouble stopping opponents from scoring. Memphis is allowing opponents to score 94.7 points in seven games since the deal –roughly five points more than its season average. The usual under-lock Grizzlies have played over the number in six of those seven contests. Memphis has played a league-low 22 road affairs to this point and doesn’t play more than two consecutive home games down the stretch.

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NBA betting review: Best and worst wagers at the break

With the NBA on the four-day hiatus in Houston, now seems like a great time to review the best and worst in NBA betting from the first half of the season.

Best ATS

Overall: Washington Wizards (31-18-2 ATS) – At 15-36 SU, the Wizards have played well enough to meet the oddmakers’ expectations and losing games by an average of just under four points a night.

Home: Denver Nuggets (17-8 ATS) – There is something to be said for the thin air at the Pepsi Center. Denver covered in four straight and six of its last seven at home before the break.

Road: New Orleans Hornets (19-10 ATS) – The soon-to-be Pelicans are a different team on the road, scoring an average of 96.6 points as visitors compared to a league-low 91 point per home game.

Worst ATS

Overall: Charlotte Bobcats (19-32-1 ATS) – The Bobcats are still at the bottom, losing games by an average of almost nine points. Combined with last season, Charlotte is 42-75-1 ATS in its last 118 games.

Home: Chicago Bulls (7-20 ATS) – Chicago has gone 15-12 SU inside the United Center but is averaging just under 92 points a night at home – second lowest home average in the league. No rush Derrick Rose.

Away: Boston Celtics (7-15-1 ATS) – The Celtics have stunk it up on the road, going just 8-15 SU including an embarrassing road loss at Charlotte Monday. Boston’s backcourt is getting dangerously thin.

Best over

Overall: Golden State Warriors (33-18-1 over/under) – The Warriors were one of the first-half surprises, thanks in part to their potent offense. Golden State can top the total in a hurry with a league-best 39.3 percent 3-point shooting.

Home: Dallas Mavericks (17-7-1 over/under) – The Mavs went into the break going 3-1 over/under for a four-game home stand and play three of four at home after the break.

Away: Golden State Warriors (19-10-0 over/under) – The Warriors defense – or lack thereof – has a much to do with these over paydays. Golden State is giving up 101.2 points per game on the year.

Best under

Overall: Indiana Pacers (21-31-1 over/under) – The Pacers finished under in both games before the break but looked to be pulling a 180 with a stretch of six overs in eight days, thanks to a brief uptick in offense.

Home: Phoenix Suns (7-18 over/under) – It seems bettors still think the Suns are a good over play, moving those home totals up just enough for the under to come crashing through.

Away: Washington Wizards (6-20-0 over/under) – Washington’s offense has a tough time getting off in opposing gyms, scoring just 86.8 points per road game compared to 96 points per home game.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Wisconsin (-3) Sunday.

Monday it’s Pittsburgh. The surplus is 50 sirignanos.

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JOE WIZ FREE PLAY

Eastern Washington +5 over Portland St

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Pucking The Trends: This Week's Best NHL Bets

Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

For the week of Feb.10-17. All stats prior to action Monday.

HOT TEAM

Anaheim Ducks (3-0 SU)

The Ducks continue to roll, completing a 5-1 road trip with a 3-2 shootout win over the Predators on Saturday. Anaheim has won four straight and boasts an impressive 11-3 record on the puckline. The groin injury suffered by G Jonas Hiller hasn’t hurt the Ducks’ cause because of the impressive play of 30-year-old rookie Viktor Fasth, who is a perfect 8-0 with a 1.78 GAA. Anaheim has a breezy schedule this coming week, as it plays two home games against the Blue Jackets and Avalanche.

COLD TEAM

Florida Panthers (0-0-3 SU)

The Panthers have suffered three consecutive overtime defeats at home to the Capitals, Canadiens and Lightning. Florida is winless in its last four games and has allowed 16 goals in the process. The Panthers are hoping RW Kris Versteeg (back) is healthy enough to suit up when they host the Maple Leafs Monday before hitting the road for two tough tilts with the Penguins and Flyers.

BEST "OVER" PLAY

New York Rangers (3-1 SU, 3-1 over/under)

The Rangers entered last week as a good under play (3-7 O/U) but have now played over the total in three of their last four games. After scoring just eight goals in its previous four games prior to the over streak, New York has found the back of the net 14 times in its past four contests. The Rangers host the Canadiens at MSG on Tuesday.

BEST "UNDER" PLAY

Nashville Predators (2-2 SU, 0-3-1 over/under)

The Predators are without a doubt the best under play in the league (2-12-1 O/U). Nashville has gone low in 11 of its last 13 contests, thanks to its commitment to a defensive system under Barry Trotz. The Predators have the worst offensive production (1.9 goals per game) but boast the best team defense (1.7 goals per game) in the league. Nashville is in Colorado Monday before hosting Detroit and Vancouver later in the week.

Surveying the schedule:

-The Chicago Blackhawks, who enter Tuesday's clash with the Canucks as the only undefeated team in regulation time, continue their season-long seven-game homestand this week. The Blackhawks are already 2-1 on the homestand and are 7-0-1 O/U in their past eight home games.

-The Columbus Blue Jackets are in the midst of a brutal six-game road trip. The Blue Jackets have already dropped consecutive games to the Kings and Coyotes on the trip and now face four very tough opponents. Columbus visits Anaheim, Detroit, St. Louis and Chicago to close out the trip this week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- New Jersey won six of its last eight games.
-- Islanders won last two games, scoring nine goals.
-- Predators won three of their last four road games.
-- Maple Leafs won five of their last six games.
-- Montreal won its last three games, allowing four goals. Carolina won five of its last six games.
-- Phoenix won five of last seven games. Flames won three of their last four road games.
-- Anaheim won four in row, eight of last nine games, with three of last four in SO.

Cold teams
-- Senators lost four of their last five games.
-- Flyers lost three of their last four games.
-- Florida lost its last four games, the last three in OT.
-- Avalanche lost four of their last five games.
-- Blue Jackets lost seven of their last nine games.

Totals
-- 10 of last 13 Senator-Devil games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Philly-Islander games stayed under total.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Colorado-Nashville games.
-- Five of last six Florida-Toronto games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Carolina games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Calgary games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Columbus games went over the total.

Series records
-- Devils won 13 of last 18 games against Ottawa.
-- Flyers won 29 of last 34 games against the Islanders.
-- Avalanche lost its last nine games against Nashville.
-- Panthers won 13 of last 16 games against Toronto.
-- Hurricanes lost three of last four visits to Montreal.
-- Flames lost eight of last eleven games against Phoenix.
-- Blue Jackets won five of last seven visits to Anaheim.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CBB

-- Drexel (-7) won 55-52 at Hofstra Jan 23, game they trailed 44-36 with 8:42 left to play, Dragons' 4th straight series win. Hofstra lost three of last four visits here, losing by 18-13-11 points. CAA double digit home favorites are 3-4 vs spread. Drexel is disappointing 6-7 in CAA, losing three of last four home games, but four of their six CAA wins are by 11+ points. Hofstra is 3-3-1 as CAA road dog, with five losses by 11+.
-- Notre Dame won last four games vs Pitt, allowing 52 ppg; Irish lost four of last five visits here, losing by 3-2-3-13 points. Three of ND's last five games went to OT; they lost last two road games by 16-17 points. Pitt is 4-3 SU at home in Big East, 2-4 as home favorite, winning home games by 8-38-10-10 points. Four of Panthers' last five games stayed under total. Big East double digit home favorites are 6-10 vs spread.

-- Georgia State is 8-3 in last 11 games, beating Wm&Mary 74-58 (-5) Jan 16, Panthers' third straight series win, by 32-4-16 points. Dogs are 6-1 vs spread in State's CAA road games; Panthers are 4-3 SU on road in CAA after hammering George Mason Saturday. Tribe is 4-3 in its last seven games after starting 1-6 in conference games. CAA home teams are 12-17 when the pointspread is 4 or less points.
-- Villanova won five of last six games vs Rutgers, winning last three at home, by 23-10-16 points; Wildcats won three of its last four games, are 4-2 SU at home in Big East, 2-1 as home faves, winning home games by 12-9-4-28 points. Rutgers lost seven of last eight games; they're 3-3 as a Big East road dog, losing away games by 25-3-12-8-6 points. Big East single digit home favorites are 16-29 against the spread.
-- Kansas State shot 59% inside arc, nipped West Virginia 65-64 (-1) Jan 12 in Morgantown; WV was just 12-22 on foul line. Favorites covered last four WV road games; Mountaineers are 3-3 on Big X road, losing on road by 2-14-20 points. K-State is 4-0 as Big X home favorite, winning in Little Apple by 9-26-9-20 points, losing only to Kansas. Big X home favorites of 10+ points are 10-4 against the spread.

-- Iona lost four of last five games, with three OT losses and fourth loss by 3 points; Gaels (-5.5) beat Fairfield 84-73 Jan 18, making 21-31 free throws (Stags were 9-13). Gaels won four of last five series games; they lost five of last six visits here, losing by 3-9-2-17-4 points. Stags are 4-1 vs spread in last five games as a home favorite. MAAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-14 against the spread.
-- Eastern Washington (-2.5) shot 56% inside arc, beat Portland State by 11 at home Jan 28, just second EW win in last ten series games- they've lost last six visits here, by 19-22-2-23-16-5 points. Nine of last 11 PSU games went over total. Eastern snapped its 8-game losing skid Saturday; they're 0-8 on Big Sky road. Big Sky home favorites of 6 or less points are 22-11 vs spread. Vikings are 3-2 vs spread as Big Sky favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Toronto Maple Leafs -113 over Florida
(System Record: 15-1, won last game)
Overall Record: 15-12

Basketball Crusher
West Virginia +10.5 over Kansas St
(System Record: 62-3, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 62-43-1

Soccer Crusher
Manchester United + Reading UNDER 3.5
This match is happening in England
(System Record: 357-14, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 357-311-42

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/18/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 3056-1037 (.747)
ATS: 1394-1427 (.494)
ATS Vary Units: 4059-4377 (.481)
Over/Under: 381-370 (.507)
Over/Under Vary Units: 404-433 (.483)

Big 12 Conference
KANSAS STATE 70, West Virginia 57

Big East Conference
PITTSBURGH 70, Notre Dame 59
VILLANOVA 71, Rutgers 57

Big Sky Conference
PORTLAND STATE 74, Eastern Washington 73

Colonial Athletic Association
DREXEL 62, Hofstra 48
Georgia State 70, WILLIAM & MARY 68

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
FAIRFIELD 75, Iona 72

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
BETHUNE-COOKMAN 58, Howard 51
Coppin State 64, UMES 62
DELAWARE STATE 62, Morgan State 61
Norfolk State 66, HAMPTON 65
North Carolina Central 69, SOUTH CAROLINA STATE 53
SAVANNAH STATE 57, North Carolina A&T 45

Patriot League
LEHIGH 65, Bucknell 60

Southwestern Athletic Conference
ALCORN STATE 64, Alabama State 60
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 65, PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 61
SOUTHERN 71, Alabama A&M 53
TEXAS SOUTHERN 76, Mississippi Valley State 58

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

02/18/13 Predictions

Season: 71-55 (.563)

NEW JERSEY 3, Ottawa 2
Philadelphia vs. N.Y. ISLANDERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Nashville vs. COLORADO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Carolina vs. MONTREAL: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Toronto vs. FLORIDA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
PHOENIX 3, Calgary 2
ANAHEIM 4, Columbus 2