2-23-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob

COLLEGE
2 Star
Selection
Texas Tech (+19.5) over IOWA STATE (Rotation: 533)
23-Feb-13
10:45 AM Pacific
Iowa State has a score to settle with Texas Tech, who beat
the Cyclones 56-51 in Lubbock earlier this season. However, big home favorites
with revenge are actually just 47% ATS over the years and Iowa State qualifies
in a very negative 3-34 ATS subset of an 18-63 ATS big home favorite situation
and the record is 1-13 ATS if the home team has revenge. My ratings favor Iowa
State by 19 1/2 points, so the line is fair, and I'll take Texas Tech in a
2-Star Best Bet at +19 points or more.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at +19 or
more.

2 Star Selection
LSU (-1.5) over Alabama (Rotation:
532)
23-Feb-13 10:45 AM Pacific
LSU applies to a solid 125-60-6 ATS
situation and my ratings favor the Tigers by 2 1/2 with Alabama's Andrew Steele
listed as questionable. Steele is the Tide's best defender and Bama is just 9-23
ATS without Steele the last few years and 30-22 ATS with him. If he doesn't play
then the line on this game is a bargain and the line is not too far off if he
does play and the favorable situation would still apply. I'll take LSU in a
2-Star Best Bet at -2 or better.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at -2 or
less.

2 Star Selection
McNeese State (+10) over TOLEDO (Rotation:
643)
23-Feb-13 11:00 AM Pacific
Toledo qualifies in a negative 21-64-2 ATS
non-conference home team situation and my ratings favor the Rockets by 9 1/2
points, so the line is fair. I'll take McNeese State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +9
points or more.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at +9 or more.

2 Star
Selection
North Dakota (-2) over NEBRASKA OMAHA (Rotation: 649)
23-Feb-13
11:00 AM Pacific
Nebraska Omaha applies to a 7-42-1 ATS situation and my
ratings favor North Dakota by 2 1/2 points. I'll take North Dakota in a 2-Star
Best Bet at -3 or less and for 3-Stars at -1 or better.

Play Strength:
2-Stars at -3 or less, 3-Stars at -1 or better.

2 Star
Selection
Manhattan (+4.5) over BUFFALO (Rotation: 695)
23-Feb-13 11:00 AM
Pacific
Buffalo has reeled off a few wins in a row but the Bulls apply to a
negative 28-86-3 ATS letdown situation today and my rating favor Buffalo by 3
1/2 points, so the line is fair. I'll take Manhattan in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3
points or more.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at +3 or more.

2 Star
Selection
Nicholls State (+4.5) over UTSA (Rotation: 693)
23-Feb-13 12:00
PM Pacific
UTSA applies to a negative 34-87-4 ATS home letdown situation that
is based on a rare win they had in their last game. My ratings favor UTSA by 4
1/2 points, so the line is fair, and I'll take Nicholls State in a 2-Star Best
Bet at +4 points or more.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at +4 or more.

2
Star Selection
Northwestern State (+4) over NIAGARA (Rotation:
657)
23-Feb-13 12:00 PM Pacific
Niagara applies to an 0-17-1 ATS subset of
a 28-86-3 ATS letdown situation and my ratings favor Niagara by just 3 1/2
points - and by only 2 points if the Purple Eagles' leading scorer Antoine Mason
misses a 5th consecutive game with a sprained ankle. Niagara hasn't beaten a
team rated as good or better than Northwestern State by more than 4 points this
season and 9 of their 16 wins have been by 4 points or fewer, so the Eagles tend
to play close games. I'll take Northwestern State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 or
more.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at +3 or more.

2 Star
Selection
Wisconsin-Milwaukee (pick) over IUPUI (Rotation: 659)
23-Feb-13
12:00 PM Pacific
Milwaukee hasn't won a road game all season but the Panthers
haven't visited a team even close to as bad as IUPUI, who has lost 12 straight
games and is 1-8 ATS since losing top scorer and top defender John Hart to a
season ending injury. The line on this game is reasonable if you use ratings for
the entire season but IUPUI has been 5.7 points worse in 9 games without Hart
and that is not being taken into account. I'll take Wisconsin-Milwaukee in a
2-Star Best Bet at -2 points or better.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at -2 or
better.

3 Star Selection
Gardner Webb (+7.5) over COLLEGE OF
CHARLESTON (Rotation: 665)
23-Feb-13 01:00 PM Pacific
Charleston is 0-5
ATS in their last 5 games and the Cougars apply to a 31-78-4 ATS situation today
against a solid Gardner Webb squad that has played well against other good teams
this season. Gardner Webb has played 7 games this season against teams that rank
in the top half of the nation in my ratings and the Bulldogs' average game
rating in those games is 7.7 points higher than their overall average rating. My
ratings favor Charleston by just 5 1/2 points and I'll take Gardner Webb in a
2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more.

Play Strength: 3-Stars at +7 or
more, 2-Stars down to +5.

2 Star Selection
Tcu (+23.5) over KANSAS
(Rotation: 547)
23-Feb-13 01:00 PM Pacific
When I made TCU a Best Bet as a
17 point home dog to Kansas earlier this month the Horned Frogs were riding a 5
game spread losing streak and an even longer straight up skid. TCU won that game
62-55 and have since lost and failed to cover 4 straight games. Kansas may have
revenge but big home favorites with revenge are losing propositions in general
and the Jayhawks apply to the same 3-34 ATS subset of an 18-63 ATS situation
that applies to Iowa State against Texas Tech. That situation is 1-13 ATS for
teams with revenge and Kansas qualifies in a 20-71-1 ATS situation that's based
on something completely different. My ratings favor Kansas by 23 1/2 points and
the Jayhawks are 0-5 ATS as a favorite of 16 points or more this season while
TCU has played relatively better against good teams. I'll take TCU in a 2-Star
Best Bet at +23 points or more.

Play Strength: 2-Stars at +23 or
more.

2 Star Selection
Charleston Southern (+3.5) over RIDER
(Rotation: 653)
23-Feb-13 02:00 PM Pacific
Rider applies to a negative
34-87-4 ATS home letdown situation and my ratings favor Rider by 2 1/2 points
even if I penalize Charleston Southern a full point for being without point
guard Saah Nimley. Charleston Southern actually played one of their best games
of the season on Thursday without Nimley (a 92-69 win over VMI) and Nimley's 36%
shooting certainly isn't tough to replace. I still adjusted a point for his
absence just to be on the safe side and the line value is still on our side, as
is the situation. I'll take Charleston Southern in a 2-Star Best Bet at +2
points or more.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

roots Pinnacle goy
Wyoming

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence:
4*West Virginia
3* Wyoming
3* Utah state

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports 8 Unit

#542 Take Arizona -15 over Washington State (3 pm FSN)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Line Moves
634 Valparaiso-7,
652 Texas A&M Corpus +7 1/2
668 Loyola Chicago pk
706 Hampton -4

[Dancin' Shoes]

LEGIT PICKS

Saturday 2/23/13 Plays...

5* TENNESSEE MARTIN -5 (10AM PST)

---LEGIT PICK'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success--

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Winnipeg won last three road games, allowing four goals.
-- Coyotes won four of their last five games.
-- Avalanche won three of their last four games. Los Angeles won four of last five.
-- Canadiens won five of their last six games.
-- Maple Leafs won seven of last nine games. Ottawa won its last three games, allowing a total of four goals.
-- Minnesota won four of its last six games.

Cold teams
-- Devils lost three of its last five games. Washington lost its last two games, scoring three goals.
-- Flyers lost five of their last nine games.
-- Oilers lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Nashville lost three of last four games. Detroit lost last five games, outscored 19-12.
-- Lightning lost seven of their last nine games. Carolina lost its last two games, scoring a total of three goals.
-- Rangers lost three of their last four games.
-- Islanders lost seven of their last ten games. Buffalo lost five of last six games, scoring a total of ten goals.
-- Blue Jackets lost six of their last eight games. St Louis lost seven of last 10 games; they scored one goal in last two games.
-- Sharks lost eight of their last nine games. Dallas Stars lost three of last four.
-- Flames lost five of their last seven games.

Totals
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five New Jersey games.
-- Seven of last eight Winnipeg games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Phoenix games stayed under the total.
-- Last six Avalanche-King games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Nashville games.
-- 13 of last 14 Carolina-Tampa Bay games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Montreal-Ranger games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Islander games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Toronto-Ottawa games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-3-2 in last dozen St Louis-Columbus games.
-- Eight of last ten San Jose games stayed under the total.
-- 11 of last 14 Calgary-Minnesota games stayed under total.

Series records
-- Devils won their last five games vs Washington.
-- Flyers won last two games vs Winnipeg, after losing previous six.
-- Oilers lost six of last seven games afainst Phoenix.
-- Kings lost their last five games against Colorado.
-- Predators won seven of last eight games vs Detroit.
-- Lightning won five of last six visits to Carolina.
-- Rangers lost three of last four games against Montreal.
-- Islanders lost last three games against Buffalo.
-- Senators lost last three games vs Toronto, outscored 11-1.
-- Blues won eight of last ten games against Columbus.
-- Sharks won seven of last eight games against Dallas.
-- Minnesota won four of last six visits to Saddledome.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CBB

-- Memphis (+1.5) won 89-76 at Southern Miss Feb 9, making 60% of shots inside arc, 9-19 from arc; Tigers won 18 of last 19 series games, are 9-0 in last nine here, with five wins by 14+ points. USM is 21-6 despite turning ball over 23.7% of time (327th in country). Memphis won last 17 games; they're 6-0 at home in C-USA, with four wins by 11+ points. C-USA home favorites of 7 or less points are 16-10 vs spread.
-- Sellout crowd of 36,000+ for Georgetown's last visit to Carrier Dome, where Hoyas lost six of last seven visits, by 5-14-7-4-17-3 points, with three losses in OT. Orange won six of last seven series games overall. Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 6-22 vs spread. Georgetown won its last eight games, winning at Cincinnati, Notre Dame. Syracuse is 6-0 at home in Big East, with five wins by 11+ points.
-- NC State (-4) beat North Carolina 91-83 Jan 26, leading by 28 with 13:22 left, then hanging on for only their second win in last 20 games vs rival Tar Heels; Wolfpack lost last nine visits here, with seven of last eight by 13+ points. State lost four of last five road games, with win by point at Clemson. UNC won its last five home games, all by 10+ points. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 6-15 vs spread.
-- Home side won last five New Mexico-Colorado State games, as Lobos lost last two visits here, by 6-8 points. New Mexico (-5) hung on to beat Rams 66-61 Jan 23, after leading by 22 with 11:59 left; they've won four of last five games- they scored 34-55 points in only two MWC losses, in San Diego/Vegas. State won six of last seven games, are 5-0 at home in MWC. MWC home favorites of 7 or less points are 12-6 vs spread.

-- Oklahoma won three of last four games; they're 5-1 at home in Big X, with only loss by hoop to K-State; Sooners (+6.5) won 74-71 at Baylor Jan 30, shooting 58.5% inside arc while Bears were 6-27 outside. Baylor lost five of last seven games, losing its last three road games by 8-2-20 points. Big X home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-10 vs spread. Last five Oklahoma games, six of last eight Baylor games went over total.
-- Marquette won three of last four games vs Villanova; last six games in series were decided by 5 or less points. Eagles are 2-3 in last five visits here, losing by 5-18-5 points. Marquette won four of last five games, is 2-3 in last five road games. Villanova won four of its last five home tilts. Five of last seven Villanova games stayed under total. Big East home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-17 against the spread.
-- UNLV lost its last four road games, including losses at Fresno and Air Force; they beat Wyoming 62-50 (-9) at home Jan 24, 18th series win in last 21 games for Rebels. Wyoming is 3-3 at home in MWC, losing by 2-9-4 points, but Washington didn't play last game; if he is out here, will be tough to match Rebels' size inside. UNLV won last two games, both by hoop at home. MWC home underdogs are 10-3 vs spread.
-- Kentucky's defensive eFG% in last three games: 54.7/63.0/54.9, after it had been over 46% in only one of previous seven games, when Noel was healthy. Wildcats won last five home games, holding on to win by 4 over Vandy last game. Missouri lost three of last four road games, with only win at lowly Miss State. SEC home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-11 vs spread. Last three Missouri games stayed under the total.

-- Rare trip east of Rockies for Montana, which is 15-1 in last 16 games, splitting pair with Weber State, only other Big Sky team ranked in top 250 in country; Griz is 1-3 vs top 100 teams, losing to Colorado State by 7, BYU by 25. Davidson went 5-6 vs #15 non-conference schedule; they've won 11 games in row since, but Charleston is only team in that stretch ranked in top 225. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Davidson games.
-- Quick turnaround for St Mary's team that won 11 of its last 12 games, beating WCC rival BYU late Thursday night; Gaels lost Bracket Buster games last two years- they're 3-4 vs top 100 teams, losing at Northern Iowa of MVC by 7 in December, and losing twice to Gonzaga. Last six Creighton games stayed under total. Bluejays lost four of last six games on road; they haven't played since Tuesday, so more time to prepare.
-- South Dakota State lost in double OT at Bakersfield Wednesday; they are 6-8 in true road games, losing by 27 at Belmont in December in road trip similar to this one. Jackrabbits won 10 of last 12 games overall, but lost last two on road. Murray State won in double OT at Morehead last game, after losing two games before that, all on road- they've won five in row at home. Over is 5-2 in Murray State's last seven games.
-- Northern Iowa won last six games, allowing 55.8 ppg; Panthers won six in row at home, are 3-7 vs top 50 teams- they've played #38 schedule in nation to this point. Denver runs Princeton offense, hard to prep for, but UNI hasn't played since Tuesday. Pioneers are 13-1 in last 14 games after a 4-7 start; they're 0-6 vs teams ranked in top 80; #100 Utah State is best team they've beaten this season.
-- Ohio forces turnovers on 26.3% of possessions, #4 in country; they're 12-1 in last 13 games, with only loss at #43 Akron. Bobcats are 1-4 vs top 100 teams, with only win over #93 Richmond in November. This is rare national TV exposure for both Ohio/Belmont, which is playing first home game in three weeks. Bruins shoot 56.1% inside arc, 38.8% outside arc- they're #4 in country in eFG%. Can they handle Ohio's pressure?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Rockets won three of their last four games (2-5 AF). Washington won five of its last seven games (12-6-2 HU).
-- Pacers won last three games, by 24-34-32 points (8-2 AF).
-- Miami won last nine games, covered last six (7-3 last ten AF).
-- Hawks won three of last four games (3-1 last four AU).
-- Utah won last three games, by 15-4-14 points (6-14-1 AU). Clippers won four of last five games (1-5 last six HF).

Cold Teams
-- Charlotte lost eight of its last ten games (5-10 last 15 HU). Nuggets won four of their last five games (6-6 HU).
-- Cavaliers lost three of last four games (3-4 as F, all at home). Orlando lost last four games, three by 13+ points (6-10 HU).
-- Detroit lost three of last five games (all three losses by 14+).
-- 76ers lost four of last five games (5-4 HU).
-- Bucks lost eight of last ten games (0-6 last six HF).


Totals
-- Six of last eight Houston games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Denver games went over the total; six of last seven Bobcat games stayed under.
-- Cavaliers won last four over, lost last three unders; under is 3-1 in last four games for both Cleveland/Orlando. .
-- Six of Pacers' last nine games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Miami games went over the total. Seven of last eight Philly games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Milwaukee games stayed under the total; five of last seven Hawk games went over.
-- Over is 3-1 in last four games for both Utah/Clippers.

Back-to-backs
-- Rockets are 6-8 vs spread when they played night before. Washington is 9-3 vs spread when it played night before.
-- Nuggets are 1-4-1 vs spread when playing second night in row on road. Charlotte is 5-9 when it played night before.
-- Orlando is 4-4 vs spread when it played night before.
-- Pacers are 4-5 vs spread on road if they played night before. Detroit is 1-3 vs spread at home if it played night before.
-- 76ers are 2-9 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Atlanta is 8-5 vs spread if it played night before, 3-2 on road.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Rosica . 100 dime play on UNLV

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Executive

650 colo st
300 c fla
300 marq

[Can'tPickAWinner]

young guns
5 miami heat

Hot shots
5oklahoma
4kans st
3north carolina

3houston nba

Feist

5xavier
4missouri
3sd st
3denv nba

[Can'tPickAWinner]

courtside junkie
kansas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy's Picks For College Basketball

4-Unit Play. #528. Take UMass -3.5 over Dayton (Saturday @ 1pm est).

4-Unit Play. #612. Take Louisiana Lafayette -1 over Western Kentucky (Saturday @ 8:30pm est).

4-Unit Play. #586. Take Florida -18.5 over Arkansas (Saturday @ 7pm est).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Godfather locks 1000* southern miss +7.5 (1pm)