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NCAA-B | Feb 25 '13 (9:00p)
Kansas vs IOWA STATE IOWA STATE
+1½-106 at 5dimes
15* Kansas/Iowa State ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Iowa State +1.5
The Iowa State Cyclones should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Kansas Jayhawks. I'll gladly take advantage and back one of the most underrated teams in the country tonight to take down the ninth-ranked Jayhawks. This team simply does not lose at home.
Iowa State is a perfect 15-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of a ridiculous 20.6 points/game. In fact, it has won 22 straight home games dating back to last season, including a 72-64 win over then-No. 5 Kansas on January 28th of last year. You'll see tonight how ISU's Hilton Coliseum is one of the best-kept secrets in college basketball.
The Cyclones will clearly be out for revenge after falling 89-97 in overtime at Kansas in their first meeting of the season on January 9th. Iowa State was robbed of a victory as Kansas' Ben McLemore banked in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to send the game into overtime. The Cyclones wouldn't recover in the extra session, but they'll have their revenge at home this time around.
"We know we let one slip away," Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg said that night. "But at the same time, if you come in here and compete with a team that's won eight championships in a row, you can compete with anyone."
Kansas is 0-7 ATS in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Iowa State is 6-0 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games this season. The Cyclones are 6-0 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 2 seasons. Iowa State is 6-0 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. The Cyclones are 7-0 ATS in home games after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games. These six trends combine for a perfect 37-0 system backing the Cyclones. Bet Iowa State Monday.
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NBA | Feb 25 '13 (9:05p)
Boston Celtics vs Utah Jazz Total
191½ un-110 at 5dimes
20* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Celtics/Jazz UNDER 191.5
I look for the Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz to take part in a defensive battle tonight when they meet for the second and final time this season. Boston comes in fatigued following an 86-92 loss at Portland last night. This will be the second of a back-to-back and the 3rd game in 4 days for the Celtics.
While Doc Rivers will command their attention to defense, I look for the Celtics to struggle on the offensive end due to their tired legs. This is a jump shooting team, which is not good for tired legs. Boston is scoring 95.9 points/game and allowing 95.9 points/game on the season.
Utah is a much better defensive team than it gets credit for. It is allowing just 95.7 points/game at home this season. A big reason this number has been inflated is the fact that the Jazz have played some recent high-scoring games against some of the top offenses in the league. They have played the Clippers, Warriors, Timberwolves and Thunder in their last four games overall.
A look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that there is some value with the UNDER tonight. Boston won 98-93 at home on November 14th for 191 combined points in their first meeting this season. The Celtics also won at home 94-82 for 176 combined points in their final meeting of the '11-12 season.
Utah is 9-1 to the UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs this season. It is combining with its opponents to average 182.8 points/game in this spot. That's roughly 9.0 points less than tonight's posted total of 191.5. Also, Boston is 25-11 to the UNDER in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
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