2-26-13

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Study Group: Tuesday's Top 25 NCB Betting Notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Tuesday’s ranked college basketball games:

(17) Memphis at Xavier (+3.5)

The Tigers' 17-game win streak is tied with Akron for the longest active streak in the nation, and it's the fifth-longest stretch in school history. The Musketeers have won three of their last five but are coming off a 75-71 loss to Virginia Commonwealth on Saturday in which they blew a 17-point lead in the second half. Xavier is 9-3 at home this season with all three losses coming by five points or less — against Vanderbilt, Wofford and Virginia Commonwealth. Eight of Xavier's 11 losses have been by seven points or fewer, including six defeats by four points or fewer. The Musketeers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.

(1) Indiana at Minnesota (+5.5)

The Hoosiers have a 1 1/2-game lead over Michigan State in the Big Ten race and have won four straight contests. Indiana is well-rested with seven days in between games after winning at Michigan State on Feb. 19. Minnesota has suffered back-to-back losses of 21 points against Iowa and 26 to Ohio State. The Golden Gophers are averaging only 51.4 points over their last five contests and are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

(6) Florida at Tennessee (+9)

Florida, which has won four of five, can clinch a double-bye in the SEC Tournament by winning at surging Tennessee. The Gators lead the 14-team conference by two games after Saturday’s 71-54 revenge win over Arkansas. Florida has held 19 opponents under 60 points, while the Gators have failed to hit 60 only once. The Vols have scored over 80 points in three straight regular-season SEC games for the first time since 2000 and are 5-0 ATS in their last five overall.

Nebraska at (16) Wisconsin (-15.5)

Wisconsin has won five of its last six games, including a 65-62 OT win over the Wolverines on Feb. 9 and, most recently, a 69-41 rout of Northwestern on Wednesday. The Badgers prevailed 47-41 over Nebraska in their first meeting on Jan. 6 and have won four in a row in the head-to-head series. The Cornhuskers are 0-8 against ranked teams this season.

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See Spot. See Spot Bet: This Week's Best Spot Bet Opportunities
by Jason Logan

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead Spot

A three-game skid looks to be in the past for the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have won two straight heading into Wednesday’s walk-through versus the New Orleans Hornets. But if you think the Big Easy Bugs are going to be just that – easy – think again.

Oklahoma City has a nasty chunk of schedule on the way, starting in Denver Friday. The Thunder then face the Clippers, Lakers and Knicks. Needless to say, Wednesday’s home game with the Hornets isn’t circled on the calendar. New Orleans has been at its best on the road, going 19-11 ATS and averaging 96.7 points away from home (compared to 91.9 in New Orleans).

Letdown Spot

The Ivy League crown will likely be decided when conference-leading Harvard takes on No. 2 Princeton in New Jersey Friday night. The Tigers (7-2) are 1.5 games behind the Crimson (9-1) after going 3-1 SU and ATS on a recent four-game road stretch. The lone loss in that span was a 69-57 beating at Harvard as 1.5-point road underdogs on Feb. 16.

Princeton will give all it has versus Harvard and L. Stockwell Jadwin Gymnasium will undoubtedly be rocking Friday. However, the Tigers – win or lose – must turn around and host Dartmouth Saturday. The Big Green, who will be playing their fourth straight road game, are at the bottom of the Ivy League and will get a ton of points versus an emotionally-exhausted Princeton side.

Schedule Spot

The Detroit Red Wings may be the most two-faced team in hockey when it comes to home and away efforts. Detroit has built a 7-4-1-0 record in Hockey Town, among the best in the NHL, but has struggled to match that away from Motown. The Red Wings are just 2-3-2-0 on the road, averaging 2.29 goals and 3.29 goals against as visitors (Detroit is averaging 3.33 goals, 2.58 goals against at home).

Detroit hits the bricks for a two-game Western road swing this week, taking on the defending Cup champs, the Los Angeles Kings Wednesday, then playing the San Jose Sharks Thursday. The Kings have found their stride, winning five of their last six, heading into Monday. San Jose is a solid 5-1-0-2 at home.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Fade Dead NCAAB Teams
by Ted Sevransky/Covers

It’s late February, and there’s still two more full weeks of regular season action in college hoops before the madness truly begins. It’s too early to write about conference tournament betting strategies – I’ll save that for next week. But it’s not too late to write about the bevy of ‘dead’ teams that are populating the college hoops landscape right now; teams that are lethargically playing out the string of the regular season. Sometimes, the sharp move is to lay big points fading sorry teams.

Northwestern is a classic example of a late February ‘dead’ team. The Wildcats have been shorthanded since December, when leading scorer (at the time) Drew Crawford went down with a season-ending shoulder injury. The loss of leading rebounder Jared Swopshire (knee) earlier this month made a bad situation worse. The remaining roster is short on both talent and confidence; a bottom tier offensive club and a mediocre (at best) squad defensively.

What happens when a team like Northwestern loses their hope and their passion? Simple – if you bet against them, you make money! The results don’t lie. The Wildcats have lost seven of their last eight in SU fashion, covering only once in defeat during that span (2-6 ATS). They’ve been held in the 40’s on five separate occasions during this stretch; 9-2-1 to the under in their last dozen ballgames. Do you think this team will bring their ‘A’ game when they travel to East Lansing to face the Spartans on senior day? I wouldn’t count on it!

One thing that sets ‘dead’ teams apart from ‘bad’ teams is their tendency to quit when trailing; unable to respond positively to adversity. Another Big 10 team, Minnesota, is a near ‘lock’ to make the NCAA tournament, which means we’ll be getting opportunities to fade them for weeks to come. The Gophers were 15-1 SU after beating Illinois by 17 in Champaign in early January. Things have not gone well since!

Tubby Smith’s squad is 3-8 SU in their last eleven ballgames. Reports of significant internal chemistry issues have seeped to the surface; a roster and a coaching staff that aren’t exemplifying the concept of ‘teamwork’ very often. An early double-digit lead at Iowa last weekend turned into a 21-point road loss. It was just as bad at Ohio State, a 26-point defeat. I wouldn’t count on the Gophers’ ability to hang tough with Indiana this week, nor do I have any interest in laying double digits with them against Penn State next weekend – this is a dead team about to lay big chalk; an easy fade in that role too!

There are plenty of other major conference examples to speak of. South Florida has been positively woeful of late, losing each of its last five by double-digit margins while failing to cover a single pointspread. This team played in the Big Dance last year, but I don’t expect them to hang tough against the likes of Pitt, UConn and Cincinnati down the stretch.

Mississippi State lost at home to Vanderbilt, 72-31, this past weekend. The Bulldogs made a grand total of seven shots from the field for the entire 40-minute contest while getting outrebounded 51-17. In their previous home game, Rick Ray’s squad lost 78-36 (24% shooting) to a Missouri team that hasn’t won a single other road game all year. I wouldn’t count on a strong showing from the Bulldogs at home against rival Ole Miss this coming weekend either!

Texas Tech, like Mississippi State, was expected to be a bottom feeder this year. Head coach Billy Gillespie was forced to resign before the season after allegations of player mistreatment surfaced. Six players transferred out of Lubbock following last year’s eight-win campaign, and interim head coach Chris Walker walked into to an untenable situation when he was promoted. Yet the Red Raiders were .500 against the spread after upsetting Iowa State back on January 23rd. They haven’t won a game since, while going 2-6 ATS during that span, and still have road tilts at Kansas State and Kansas upcoming on their schedule.

At 6-17 ATS, bettors haven’t made any money supporting Duquesne all year. This team has won only one game and covered only twice since before Christmas and is in the midst of a 1-14 SU, 2-13 ATS run. Their defensive efforts have been non-existent; their offensive execution nearly as bad, and the betting markets haven’t been able to make a line high enough to get the Dukes under the spread.

Old Dominion head coach Blaine Taylor didn’t survive the Monarchs’ 2-20 SU start; an absolute disaster for a program that has been a fixture in the postseason for the last eight years, averaging 24 wins per season during that span. They got a small bump when Jim Corrigan was named interim head coach, but the betting markets reacted very quickly. That’s why we’ve seen ODU lose SU as favorites twice in its last three games. And because the Monarchs are ineligible to play in the NCAA tournament this year, their final few games are as meaningless as it gets for a downtrodden bottom feeder.

Wyoming started 15-2 and notched a rare Top 25 ranking back in early January! But the Cowboys are 2-7 SU, 1-8 ATS in their last nine Mountain West Conference games, including back-to-back no shows in their last two contests. Wyoming’s early season success was largely the result of its gritty, scrappy nature; not its talent level. But head coach Larry Shyatt didn’t have a deep team to begin with, and it got worse when leading scorer Luke Martinez broke his hand in a bar brawl. A plethora of injuries and illnesses have made their depth concerns even worse; bad news against the likes of New Mexico and Colorado State to close out the regular season

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KB Hoops

7 units Minnesota +6.5
5 units Tennessee +9.5
4 units Memphis -3
4 units Florida State -4.5

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4_SEASONS NBA Power Play of the Day
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS -10

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Jets won three of first four games on this roadtrip.
-- Penguins won five of their last six games.
-- Bruins won their last three games, allowing five goals.
-- Flames are 4-3 in their last seven games.

Cold teams
-- Columbus lost eight of its last ten games. Dallas Stars lost three of their last four.
-- Hurricanes lost three of their last four games. Washington is 2-3 in its last five home games.
-- Rangers lost four of their last five games.
-- Sabres lost six of their last seven games. Tampa Bay lost seven of last ten.
-- Florida lost seven of its last eight games.
-- Islanders lost four of their last five home games.
-- Minnesota is 4-6 in its last ten games.
-- Coyotes lost last three road games, outscored 12-6. Vancouver lost four of its last six games overall.
-- Avalanche lost six of their last nine games. San Jose lost nine of last ten games, after it started season 7-0.

Totals
-- 10 of last 12 Dallas-Columbus games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Carolina games went over the total. 10 of last 13 Carolina-Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Winnipeg-Ranger games stayed under total.
-- 13 of last 18 Buffalo-Tampa Bay games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Florida games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Boston-Islander games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Calgary-Minnesota games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Phoenix-Vancouver games stayed under total; five of Canucks' last six games went over.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Colorado games.

Series records
-- Dallas Stars won three of last four visits to Columbus.
-- Hurricanes won their last three games vs Washington.
-- Rangers were 4-0 vs Winnipeg LY, allowing three goals.
-- Lightning won three of last four games with Buffalo.
-- Penguins won eight of last nine games with Florida.
-- Bruins won eight of last ten games against the Islanders.
-- Flames won five of last seven games with Minnesota.
-- Coyotes won three of last four visits to Vancouver.
-- Sharks won ten of last twelve games with Colorado.

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/26/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 3282-1118 (.746)
ATS: 1508-1546 (.494)
ATS Vary Units: 4335-4655 (.482)
Over/Under: 419-399 (.512)
Over/Under Vary Units: 437-469 (.482)

Atlantic Coast Conference
FLORIDA STATE 69, Wake Forest 66

Big South Conference
LIBERTY 86, Vmi 78

Big Ten Conference
Indiana 72, MINNESOTA 63
WISCONSIN 63, Nebraska 46

Horizon League
DETROIT 79, Loyola (Chicago) 64
GREEN BAY 73, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 56
VALPARAISO 81, Youngstown State 64
Wright State 58, UIC 56

Southeastern Conference
ALABAMA 67, Auburn 53
Florida 67, TENNESSEE 59

Non-Conference
Eastern Illinois 64, CHICAGO STATE 63
Memphis 71, XAVIER 64
NORTH DAKOTA STATE 70, Utah Valley 50

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/26/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 540-268 (.668)
ATS: 431-398 (.520)
ATS Vary Units: 1142-1022 (.528)
Over/Under: 430-401 (.517)
Over/Under Vary Units: 607-544 (.527)

PHILADELPHIA 97, Orlando 88
INDIANA 102, Golden State 94
MIAMI 113, Sacramento 93
CHICAGO 99, Cleveland 89
NEW ORLEANS 96, Brooklyn 92
DALLAS 107, Milwaukee 99
PHOENIX 101, Minnesota 97
L.A. CLIPPERS 107, Charlotte 87

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DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

02/26/13 Predictions

Season: 97-73 (.571)

N.Y. RANGERS 3, Winnipeg 2
Carolina vs. WASHINGTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Dallas vs. COLUMBUS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Boston vs. N.Y. ISLANDERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
TAMPA BAY 4, Buffalo 3
Pittsburgh 4, FLORIDA 3
MINNESOTA 3, Calgary 2
VANCOUVER 3, Phoenix 2
SAN JOSE 3, Colorado 2

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Tuesday

Bruins -150

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Gold Medal Club Selections 26/02/2013
CBB:
25* #519 Towson +6.5
#522 Xavier +4.5

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Hockey Crusher
Minnesota Wild -150 over Calgary Flames
(System Record: 20-1, won last game)
Overall Record: 20-15

Basketball Crusher
Xavier +3.5 over Memphis
(System Record: 65-4, won last game)
Overall Record: 65-48-1

Soccer Crusher
Bolton + Peterborough OVER 2.5
This match is happening in England
(System Record: 362-14, won last game)
Overall Record: 362-314-43

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Indiana at Minnesota

The Golden Gophers look to bounce back from their 71-45 loss at Ohio State and build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games after scoring less than 50 points in the previous game. Minnesota is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Hoosiers favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6). Here are all of today's games.

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 26 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 517-518: Indiana at Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 75.371; Minnesota 72.309 Dunkel Line: Indiana by 3; 133 Vegas Line: Indiana by 6; 139 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6); Under

Game 519-520: Towson at George Mason (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Towson 54.696. George Mason 55.858 Dunkel Line: George Mason by 1 Vegas Line: George Mason by 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Towson (+6 1/2)

Game 521-522: Memphis at Xavier (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 69.467; Xavier 62.406 Dunkel Line: Memphis by 7; 138 Vegas Line: Memphis by 4 1/2; 133 Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-4 1/2); Over

Game 523-524: Auburn at Alabama (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 56.996; Alabama 65.106 Dunkel Line: Alabama by 8; 113 Vegas Line: Alabama by 11 1/2; 119 Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+11 1/2); Under

Game 525-526: Loyola-Chicago at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 50.209; Detroit 66.858 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 16 1/2 Vegas Line: Detroit by 13 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-13)

Game 527-528: WI-Milwaukee at WI-Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 44.670; WI-Green Bay 63.619 Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 19 Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 14 Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-14)

Game 529-530: Wright State at Illinois-Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 55.867; Illinois-Chicago 50.295 Dunkel Line: Wright State by 5 1/2 Vegas Line: Wright State by 1 Dunkel Pick: Wright State (-1)

Game 531-532: Youngstown State at Valparaiso (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 52.449; Valparaiso 63.944 Dunkel Line: Valparaiso by 11 1/2 Vegas Line: Valparaiso by 13 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Youngstown State (+13 1/2)

Game 533-534: Wyoming at Air Force (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 61.274; Air Force 63.728 Dunkel Line: Air Force by 2 1/2 Vegas Line: Air Force by 4 Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+4)

Game 535-536: Florida at Tennessee (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida 79.360; Tennessee 67.315 Dunkel Line: Florida by 12; 132 Vegas Line: Florida by 9; 124 Dunkel Pick: Florida (-9); Over

Game 537-538: Wake Forest at Florida State (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 56.425; Florida State 64.655 Dunkel Line: Florida State by 8; 135 Vegas Line: Florida State by 5; 139 Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-5); Under

Game 539-540: Nebraska at Wisconsin (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 60.889; Wisconsin 73.905 Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 13; 110 Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 16; 113 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+16); Under

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Today's NBA Picks

Cleveland at Chicago

The Bulls look to bounce back from their 102-72 loss at Oklahoma City on Sunday and build on their 10-2 ATS record in their last 12 games following an ATS defeat. Chicago is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulls favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-7). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 26 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: Orlando at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 104.581; Philadelphia 118.924 Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 14 1/2; 193 Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 189 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-9 1/2); Over

Game 503-504: Golden State at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 112.447; Indiana 130.709 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 18 1/2; 191 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 7 1/2; 195 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-7 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: Sacramento at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 112.335; Miami 126.652 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 14 1/2; 216 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 15 1/2; 210 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+15 1/2); Over

Game 507-508: Brooklyn at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 116.627; New Orleans 122.416 Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 6; 184 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 509-510: Cleveland at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 114.445; Chicago 124.701 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 10 1/2; 193 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 7; 190 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-7); Over

Game 511-512: Milwaukee at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 113.477; Dallas 124.632 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 11; 208 Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 5 1/2; 211 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5 1/2); Under

Game 513-514: Minnesota at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 115.562; Phoenix 112.299 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 199 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 194 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+1 1/2); Over

Game 515-516: Charlotte at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 109.586; LA Clippers 123.328 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 13 1/2; 193 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 16; 199 Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+16); Under