2-27-13

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Study group: Wednesday's Top 25 NCAAB betting notes

Michigan Wolverines at Penn State (+14, 133)

Michigan will try to claim its third consecutive win and stay in the conversation for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament when the fourth-ranked Wolverines travel to face Penn State on Wednesday night. The Wolverines remain in the top five despite dropping three of four earlier this month, and they've won two straight, including a 71-58 home win over Illinois on Friday. The Nittany Lions remain winless in Big Ten play and have dropped 14 straight dating to an 84-74 home win over Duquesne on Dec. 29.

The Nittany Lions are running out of chances to get that elusive first win in conference play with just four games remaining, including trips to Minnesota and Northwestern before finishing at home against a ranked Wisconsin team. Michigan has won the past five meetings, including a 79-71 home victory Feb. 17. The Wolverines have won two of their past three trips to Penn State. With a win, the Wolverines would match their highest win total under coach John Beilein, tying last year's 24-10 mark.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes (-18, 131)

Miami survived three straight close calls before its chance at an unbeaten ACC season ended on Saturday at Wake Forest. The seventh-ranked Hurricanes look to get back on track when Virginia Tech visits on Wednesday. Miami has averaged 54.7 points and 38 percent shooting the last three games, but can still depend on its strong work on the other end of the court. Miami, which is 12-0 at home, would hold at least a two-game lead in the ACC with a victory before playing at second-place Duke on Saturday.

Virginia Tech snapped a nine-game losing streak by beating Florida State on Sunday, shooting 50 percent for the second time in conference play this season. Senior guard Erick Green leads the nation in scoring and poured in 30 points in the Hokies’ 73-64 loss to Miami on Jan. 30.

Georgetown Hoyas at Connecticut Huskies (+2, 124)

Georgetown’s formula of relying on Otto Porter Jr. on offense and its suffocating defense has served it well during its nine-game winning streak. Both will need to be operating at peak efficiency Wednesday when the eighth-ranked Hoyas attempt to end their struggles at Connecticut. Porter tallied a career-high 33 points in Saturday’s win at Syracuse, ending the Orange’s 38-game home winning streak.

Porter, averaging 19.7 points over the last nine contests, has provided the offense necessary to push Georgetown into sole possession of first place in the Big East standings while the defense has allowed only two opponents to eclipse 56 points during the winning streak. Both marks figure to get tested against the surging Huskies, who have defeated the Hoyas six of the last seven times they have met at home. Connecticut has won seven of nine and is among the conference leaders in field goal percentage and scoring offense during Big East play.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at TCU Horned Frogs (+16, 119)

Oklahoma State took the first step to staying in the race for the Big 12 lead with Saturday’s victory at West Virginia. Now the 18th-ranked Cowboys look to continue rebounding from last week’s double-overtime loss to Kansas when they travel to TCU on Wednesday. While the Horned Frogs do have a victory over the Jayhawks this season, that upset is their only conference triumph.

Oklahoma State sits one game behind Kansas and Kansas State in the conference standings, and will host the Wildcats in the regular-season finale March 9. TCU has lost five in a row.

Akron Zips at Ohio Bobcats (-2.5, 134)

Akron looks to extend the nation's longest winning streak to 19 games when it takes on host Ohio in a first-place showdown in the MAC East Division. The Zips come in with a perfect 12-0 league record, but the Bobcats are just a game behind in the standings at 11-1. The two teams played three weeks ago, with Akron coming out on top by 14.

Home is the place to be for Ohio, which is 15-1 in Athens this year and 5-6 on the road. The Bobcats come off a BracketBusters loss to Belmont on Saturday, so they'll certainly be focused on getting back on the winning track. The Zips' defense has been a key to their success, holding 12 opponents to fewer than 60 points, including four of their last five.

St. Joseph's Hawks at Saint Louis Billikens (-11, 124)

With its second straight win over a ranked team Saint Louis jumped into the Top 25 at No. 19 as it hosts St. Joseph's in an Atlantic 10 conference game on Wednesday night. Saint Louis has won nine in a row, the longest active streak in the Atlantic 10 Conference and tied for the eighth longest winning streak in the nation.

The Billikens have beaten St. Joseph's six straight times and Hawks' coach Phil Martelli warned his team to be ready for a monumental task. "Now we go into the deep, deep end of the water," Martelli said. "This team we're playing Wednesday night is playing as well as any A-10 team has ever played. Saint Louis is an absolutely certifiable monster, and I just told the players that I hope they're excited about that."

Louisville Cardinals at DePaul Blue Demons (+15, 146)

Louisville has won three straight games since the five-overtime defeat at Notre Dame and a trip to the Carrier Dome to face Syracuse looms on Saturday. The ninth-ranked Cardinals must stay alert to keep its Big East regular-season title hopes alive when they visit struggling DePaul on Wednesday. Louisville, one game behind league-leading Georgetown, has beaten the Blue Demons nine straight times. The Cardinals aren’t the best shooting team in the league, but they are third in the nation in steals and score 31 percent of their points off turnovers.

DePaul is suffering through another difficult season, losing 11 of its last 12 games. The Blue Demons are third behind league-leader Louisville in scoring offense, but is last in scoring defense. Cleveland Melvin and Brandon Young, two of the top eight scorers in the league, are always dangerous though.

Arizona Wildcats at USC Trojans (+6, 133)

Arizona will try to remain atop the Pac-12 standings when the No. 11 Wildcats travel to USC on Wednesday night. Arizona enters the week all square with Oregon, who beat the Wildcats in their only meeting this season. Arizona has won three in a row after back-to-back losses to California and Colorado, but continues to struggle with consistency during the second half.

Solomon Hill, a 6-7 senior forward for the Wildcats, returns to his hometown of Los Angeles. The team’s second leading scorer (13.6) hasn’t played well in his previous three stops at USC, averaging 5.7 points. Solomon had a string of 15 straight games in double figures snapped Saturday against Washington State. He took five shots and scored five points. The Trojans have lost their last two games following a season-long four-game winning streak. J.T. Terrell is averaging 14.2 points in the 10 games since coach Kevin O’Neill was fired, increasing his season average to 11.2.

San Diego State Aztecs at New Mexico Lobos (-3, 129)

No. 14 New Mexico could take another big step toward winning at least a share of its fourth Mountain West regular season championship in five years with a win over preseason conference favorite San Diego State. The Aztecs, who enter tied for third place with UNLV, trail the Lobos by three games with four games to go. The Lobos hold a two-game lead in the Mountain West over Colorado State after snapping the Rams' 27-game home win streak on Saturday, 91-82, behind 46 points by junior guard Kendall Williams.

One team that has been able to hold its own with Steve Alford's Lobos is San Diego State. The Aztecs have won five of the last seven meetings between the two teams and embarrassed New Mexico in the first meeting, 55-34, in San Diego on Jan. 26. The 34 points were the fewest scored in a game since 1976 by the Lobos who shot just 25 percent from the floor. The Aztecs are 5-2 in their last seven trips to The Pit and are the last Mountain West team to win in Albuquerque (Jan. 12, 2012).

St. Mary's Gaels at Pepperdine Waves (+12, 129)

No. 23 Saint Mary's heads to Malibu after one of its finest stretches of the season last week with home wins over BYU (64-57) and Creighton (74-66). The Gaels have already clinched second place in the West Coast Conference and the No. 2 seed for the WCC Tournament behind No. 2 ranked Gonzaga (27-2, 14-0). Saint Mary's has won 12 straight against Pepperdine, including a 84-72 victory on Jan. 26, and has won eight straight at Firestone Fieldhouse.

Pepperdine, picked to finish last in the preseason WCC coaches poll, enters the contest in seventh place and could finish anywhere between sixth and eighth depending on how things play out in the final week of conference play. The Waves have lost two in a row since edging last place Loyola Marymount, 52-50, on Feb. 14. They are 6-6 at home, including a 58-56 overtime victory of Washington State on Nov. 16, heading into their home finale.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
By JESSE SCHULE

Each week throughout the college basketball season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team - Georgetown Hoyas (21-4 SU, 14-7 ATS)

Georgetown is the hottest team in the country, without a doubt. The Hoyas have won nine straight, covering the points in all of those victories. It's even more impressive than it sounds though, when you look at who they are beating.

They went to South Bend and defeated the No. 24 Notre Dame Fighting Irish by a score of 63-47, then followed that up with a home win over No. 5 Louisville. It was their latest victory that is the most impressive, however, winning on the road against Syracuse in a convincing 57-46 win at the Carrier Dome.

They have a big game coming up in Connecticut Wednesday. It isn't going to be easy against the Huskies, but Georgetown hasn't had any troubles winning on the road lately. The Hoyas finish the season with a home meeting versus Syracuse, and you know the Orange will have revenge on their minds.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team - Wisconsin Badgers (19-8 SU, 10-14-1 ATS)

I had the Badgers pegged as the most overrated team in the nation last week, and a win over Northwestern has done nothing to change my mind. Last week I said, "The Badgers have the lowest winning percentage of any of the ranked teams, yet they find themselves ranked No. 17 overall. Wisconsin has been a losing bet this year, with a terrible 9-14-1 ATS record. The Badgers are only averaging 67 points per game and they are just shooting 42.6 percent from the field."

While they did manage to cover in their win over a weak Northwestern team, they haven't improved their shooting percentage and they only matched their season average of 67 points. The Badgers play Nebraska at home Tuesday as 16-point favorites. They face a much tougher test when they take on Michigan State in East Lansing next Thursday.

Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked – Connecticut Huskies (19-7 SU, 12-10 ATS)

The Huskies have put together back-to-back wins and they’re now ahead of No. 23 Pittsburgh and just one game back of No. 21 Notre Dame in the Big East standings. Connecticut's 19-7 record is better than Wisconsin's 19-8 record, yet the Badgers find themselves in the No. 16 slot.

Connecticut has victories over Syracuse, Notre Dame, and Michigan State. UConn’s next game is at home against Georgetown and it is going to be a tough one. But if the Huskies can get past the Hoyas, you have to like their chances of sneaking into the Top 25 next week.

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Capping college basketball's major conference races

March wouldn't be so mad if February wasn't so frenzied, with plenty of major conference titles still up for grabs.

There are four or fewer games left on the regular season slate for most programs, which means contending teams will be going all out in the final days of the schedule.

Some will rise to the occasion, giving college basketball bettors some added value to their spreads. Others, however, may crumble under the pressure. We look at how to cap some of the tightest major conference races in college hoops:

ACC

Contending: Miami (13-1), Duke (2 games back)

What to watch for: The Hurricanes have lost their ATS magic, failing to cover in four straight including an upset loss to Wake Forest. Miami does have three of its final four coming in Coral Gables, where it is 9-1 ATS on the year.

Duke is the lone road game on the Canes’ slate. The Blue Devils have three tough games remaining out of their final four – at Virginia, Miami, at UNC – and may get Ryan Kelly back for their final two, at home to Virginia Tech and at Chapel Hill.

Big East

Contending: Georgetown (11-3), Marquette (.5 game back), Louisville (1 game back), Syracuse (1.5 games back). Notre Dame (1.5 games back)

What to watch for: Georgetown controls its own destiny but may have peaked with a win over Syracuse this weekend. The Hoyas have a dangerous game at UConn Wednesday and a rematch with Cuse in the season finale. The Orange are a sinking ship after losing to Marquette, which hosts Notre Dame this weekend.

Both the Irish and Louisville need to win out the stretch and get some help from the Hoyas and the other schools ahead of them. While a conference title may not be up for grabs in their matchup on March 9, seeding in the Big East tournament will be.

Big 12

Contending: Kansas (12-3), Kansas State (12-3), Oklahoma State 1.5 games back)

What to watch for: The final two weeks of Big 12 play will not only decide the conference champion but perhaps tag the winner with a No. 1 seed in the NCAA.

Kansas has won SU and ATS in its last five – thanks to the refs versus ISU – and should continue to cover in its final three games with Bill Self revving the engines before the conference tournament. The Wildcats could have their party spoiled by OSU in the season finale. The Cowboys are 8-4 ATS in Stillwater.

Big Ten

Contending: Indiana (12-2). Michigan State (1.5 games back), Wisconsin (2 games back), Michigan (2 games back)

What to watch for: The Hoosiers are hitting their stride at the right time, winning four in a row SU and ATS heading into their final four outings. Tom Crean won’t take his foot off the gas as IU rolls into a season finale at Michigan. The Spartans seem destined to fall, losing two in a row with games against Michigan and Wisconsin on tap.

The Badgers have been hot but the two most important games of the final stretch are away from Madison, where they are just 3-5-1 ATS on the year. The Wolverines could be the comeback kids in the Big Ten. Their two toughest games – MSU and Indiana – are at home but beware the letdown at Penn State and Purdue.

Pac-12

Contending: Oregon (11-4), Arizona (11-4), UCLA (.5 game back), California (1 game back)

What to watch for: Oregon has the edge over Arizona with a win against the Wildcats acting as an insurance policy. But nothing is certain for the Ducks, who play their final two games at Colorado and Utah. Arizona could present some betting value with its back against the wall. The Wildcats need to win out at USC, at UCLA and hosting Arizona State but have the talent and pedigree to pull it off.

The Bruins will put all their chips on the March 2 game versus Arizona, which could open them up to a look-ahead spot versus ASU this week and letdown spots in the final two games. Cal is the hottest team in the Pac-12, winning five in a row while going 3-1-1 ATS. The Golden Bears’ remaining games – Utah, Colorado, Stanford – all come at home with the conference race acting as fuel for Mike Montgomery’s squad.

SEC

Contending: Florida (12-2), Alabama (2 games back), Kentucky (2 games back)

What to watch for: The Gators have the SEC regular season crown in their back pocket, barring an epic collapse, but the motivation of a No. 1 NCAA seed should still push UF in the final two weeks. Florida does have two important games versus Alabama and Kentucky.

The Crimson Tide must win in Gainesville to even sniff the SEC crown, so expect an all-out effort on March 2. Following that, Bama is at Ole Miss, which stinks of letdown spot. The Wildcats have struggled on the road, boasting a 3-6 ATS mark, and have trips to Arkansas and Georgia, before a finale with Florida in Lexington.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Canadiens at Maple Leafs: What bettors need to know

Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs (-102, 5)

The Montreal Canadiens lost both home games against the Original Six rival Toronto Maple Leafs this season, falling 2-1 in their season opener and 6-0 on Feb. 9. On Wednesday, the Canadiens will make the first of three visits to Toronto with the hopes of building on their tenuous Northeast Division lead. After each loss to the Maple Leafs, Montreal went on its longest winning streaks of the season (four and five games, respectively) and holds a one-point lead on Ottawa with a game in hand after dropping a 2-1 decision to the Senators in a shootout on Monday.

Toronto, which is two points behind Ottawa, has won its last three home games to improve to 4-4-0 at Air Canada Centre this season. Goaltender Ben Scrivens has two shutouts in seven starts since James Reimer suffered a knee injury and has looked confident in net - aside from allowing four goals on 19 shots in a loss to Tampa Bay. Reimer earned the shutout the last time Toronto defeated Montreal, while Scrivens made 21 saves in the season-opening win over the Canadiens. With Reimer poised to return soon, the Maple Leafs may finally have the kind of goaltending tandem that other teams desire.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TSN, RDS

ABOUT THE CANADIENS (12-4-3): Montreal re-acquired Michael Ryder and also secured a third-round pick in the 2013 draft from Dallas for fellow right wing Erik Cole on Tuesday. Ryder has collected six goals and eight assists in 19 contests this season for the Stars. Carey Price was in net for both losses against the Maple Leafs, but is 10-3-2 on the season with a 1.90 goals-against average and .925 save percentage. After recording eight points in his last six games - including his first four goals of the season - Max Pacioretty leads the team with 14 points. Tomas Plekanec has 13 points and a team-leading eight goals, but hasn’t scored in the last four games. Raphael Diaz leads team defensemen with 13 points and rookie Alex Galchenyuk has four points in his last five games and 12 on the season.

ABOUT THE MAPLE LEAFS (12-8-0): With three assists in his last two games, Nazem Kadri seized the team scoring lead from Phil Kessel. Kadri has 17 points, while Kessel - who has five points in as many games, has 16 on the season. James van Riemsdyk leads the team with 11 goals and Cody Franson tops team defensemen in scoring with 11 points. Matt Frattin, who is second on the team with seven goals despite not playing since Feb. 11, is close to returning from a knee injury. Mikhail Grabovski has three goals in his last four games.

TRENDS:

* Under is 8-0 in the last eight meetings in Toronto.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Road team is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

OVERTIME:

1. The Canadiens won two of three games in Toronto last season, including posting a 5-0 victory on Feb. 11, 2012.

2. Kessel had a goal and two assists in his last game against Montreal. He has 31 points in 37 career games against the Canadiens.

3. Joffrey Lupul skated with the Maple Leafs last week, but there is no timetable for his return from a fractured forearm.

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JestersBets (2-1 yesterday):

Boise -9, Bradley +7.5, Indiana St -7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE ESSLER

CBB Wednesday Cliff Notes

G-Town at UConn: Well, it's hard to stop a train, or to fade G-Town right now, but that may be the play here. Obviously it appears Syracuse isn't playing all THAT well, so I've got to discount that to some extent. Their previous conference road win was at Cincinnati, and certainly the Bearcats are just not that good. What I can't overlook is that this is UConn's next to last home game in a season of change, with no Calhoun and no post season. A reason to perhaps take the Huskies here is that they are the #1 three point shooting team in the Big East, and when Napier and/or Boatright/Calhoun get hot, they get really hot. I do know that G-Towns' three point defense is right up there, but I would contend that much of that is from on-conference play, because there simply aren't great shooting teams in the Big East, aside from G-Town themselves. The Hoyas can get turnover-prone, and UConn gets to the line a ton, shooting over 75% as a team. That in and of itself says Huskies or nothing. Not sure how big I can go, because UConn can have troubles on the offensive glass.

Colorado at Stanford: Both teams hovering around .500 in the Conference so no grand implications there, but Stanford with a major payback issue from a beating they took at Colorado earlier this season. Buff's have had some impressive road wins, but they're young. What often concerns me about youth this time of year is especially with Freshman, who are playing many more games and months than they did even a year ago in HS. And since history tends to repeat itself, last year under Boyle they were thinking Big Dance and lost three of their final four games. Josh Scott is still listed as questionable (missed Utah game w/concussion) and although he's a Freshman, he IS their inside presence at 6'10" and and there IS nobody else to replace the shots he takes, second only by three on the team to Asia Booker. Stanford opened at -3, and I have to think if Scott is out that that number goes a bit higher. This is a Stanford team that's totally fallen short of expectations, after winning the NIT last year and essentially having the same team back. They started with a tough non-conference schedule, but really didn't beat anyone. What they do have going for them in this game is their up-tempo style versus the youth and the payback, so I really can't find a reason to take Colorado. Ought to play the Cardinal ML, because I don't see this coming down, and without Scott, only going up.

Akron at Ohio: Battle for the number one spot in the Conference, and Ohio's only Conference loss WAS to Akron. They did fall on their face against Belmont, badly, which really make this game that much more important if they think they're dancing, because the only hope they've got now is to win the Conference, because their SOS/RPI is terrible. In their last game Akron simply dominated. They had 40 rebounds to 22, shot 63% and had nearly twice as many assists. So how are they going to stop that from happening again, even on their own floor. Akron's much bigger with a much deeper bench (which comes into play in a fast paced game). Only thing Ohio has is experience, which does mean a lot this time of year. I do know that Akron hasn't lost in forever, but they haven't beaten a good team on the road, either, so I do think they're a bit of a paper tiger, especially going forward if they're the ones in the Tournament. If Ohio is going to win this game, they're simply going to have to out run Akron and make their three's, because they cannot rebound at either end. I expect this game to be close, and actually think the best bet, if there is one, is the under. The total could be quite high and with neither team getting to the FT line much, nor making them when they do, that'd be my lean. Hard pressed on paper to take Ohio, but I got to go back to who has Akron beaten on the road and yes, there is revenge, so lean home team slightly.

Arkansas at LSU: LSU has continued to baffle me most of this season. Bring in Johnny Jones to coach, up-tempo the game to fit what Hickey likes to do, and bing, they're actually a team capable of beating almost anyone. They went through a rough stretch early in SEC play, but I'd attribute much of that to a new coach/style as well as a weak schedule. They seem to have figured most of it out. The only caveat to the auto-fade of the Hogs on the road is that LSU travels to Missouri on Saturday, after beating the Tigers earlier, and that may be a bit to big of a game for this team. OK, well documented that Arkansas hasn't won on the road, and do they mail this one in with a semi-wounded Kentucky coming to their gym on Saturday. What really surprises me about the Hogs is that for such a running team they score an inordinate amount of their point INSIDE the arc (except against Florida!). That, against the much bigger LSU team, could be a problem. Since neither team rebounds well and they both like to run, I can make a reasonable case for the over here. Both teams don't turn it over a ton, so there should not be too many wasted possessions. Simply cannot take Arkansas on the road, regardless of how tempting the line might make it.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/27/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 3291-1124 (.745)
ATS: 1512-1554 (.493)
ATS Vary Units: 4342-4675 (.482)
Over/Under: 419-405 (.508)
Over/Under Vary Units: 437-476 (.479)

Atlantic 10 Conference
CHARLOTTE 70, Dayton 66
RICHMOND 69, George Washington 61
SAINT LOUIS 72, Saint Joseph's 56

Atlantic Coast Conference
Maryland 64, GEORGIA TECH 61
MIAMI (FLA.) 77, Virginia Tech 57
NC STATE 80, Boston College 67

Big 12 Conference
Baylor 69, WEST VIRGINIA 68
Oklahoma 70, TEXAS 64
Oklahoma State 72, TCU 53

Big East Conference
Georgetown 63, CONNECTICUT 61
Louisville 81, DePAUL 65
PITTSBURGH 64, South Florida 43

Big South Conference
CAMPBELL 85, Longwood 72
COASTAL CAROLINA 61, Winthrop 56
GARDNER-WEBB 69, Charleston Southern 65
HIGH POINT 77, Radford 62
UNC ASHEVILLE 75, Presbyterian 62

Big Ten Conference
IOWA 71, Purdue 61
Michigan 73, PENN STATE 56

Colonial Athletic Association
Delaware 67, HOFSTRA 62
GEORGIA STATE 72, Northeastern 64
William & Mary 71, UNC WILMINGTON 68

Conference USA
SMU 69, Rice 55
TULANE 70, Uab 65
UTEP 74, Houston 65

Mid-American Conference
Akron vs. OHIO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
BALL STATE 71, Central Michigan 62
BOWLING GREEN 69, Miami (Ohio) 59
Eastern Michigan 52, NORTHERN ILLINOIS 47
KENT STATE 75, Buffalo 64
TOLEDO 68, Western Michigan 64

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
MORGAN STATE 72, Coppin State 58

Missouri Valley Conference
Creighton 72, BRADLEY 66
ILLINOIS STATE 71, Missouri State 62
INDIANA STATE 73, Drake 68
Northern Iowa 62, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 56
WICHITA STATE 73, Evansville 60

Mountain West Conference
BOISE STATE 75, Nevada 63
COLORADO STATE 71, Fresno State 55
NEW MEXICO 66, San Diego State 60

Ohio Valley Conference
BELMONT 86, Siue 58

Pacific-10 Conference
Arizona 68, USC 63
STANFORD 67, Colorado 66
UCLA 75, Arizona State 65

Patriot League
ARMY 71, Holy Cross 61
BUCKNELL 66, American 47
Lafayette 68, COLGATE 63
LEHIGH 69, Navy 48

Southeastern Conference
Arkansas 72, LSU 71
KENTUCKY 80, Mississippi State 56
OLE MISS 72, Texas A&M 63
VANDERBILT 57, Georgia 51

Southern Conference
Davidson 73, ELON 64

West Coast Conference
Saint Mary's 73, PEPPERDINE 59

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/27/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 544-272 (.667)
ATS: 433-404 (.517)
ATS Vary Units: 1145-1036 (.525)
Over/Under: 435-404 (.518)
Over/Under Vary Units: 613-546 (.529)

ORLANDO 103, Sacramento 101
CLEVELAND 101, Toronto 98
NEW YORK 105, Golden State 101
WASHINGTON 98, Detroit 90
MEMPHIS 100, Dallas 92
HOUSTON 110, Milwaukee 101
OKLAHOMA CITY 108, New Orleans 93
SAN ANTONIO 109, Phoenix 92
UTAH 101, Atlanta 98
Denver 107, PORTLAND 104

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

02/27/13 Predictions

Season: 99-77 (.563)

TORONTO 3, Montreal 2
Washington vs. PHILADELPHIA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ANAHEIM 3, Nashville 2
LOS ANGELES 3, Detroit 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE WIZ FREE PLAY

Rice +13 over SMU

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 989- 735(57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free Winner 8-3 run WED Iowa -9

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Wednesday

Kings -160

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Raptors won five of last seven games (1-5 last six F). Cleveland won three of last four games (7-10 HU).
-- Warriors won three of last four games (0-8 last eight AU).
-- Thunder won six of last nine games (9-1 last ten HF).
-- Memphis won its last seven games (15-12-1 HF).
-- Houston won/covered its last five home games (10-1 last 11 HF).
-- Wizards won their last three games (3-4 HF).
-- Spurs won six of last seven games (3-5 last eight HF; this is Spurs' first home game in 25 days).
-- Hawks won five of last six games (4-1 last five AU).
-- Nuggets won three of their last four games (1-4 last five SU road).

Cold Teams
-- Orlando lost five of its last six games (6-10 HU). Kings lost their last six games (7-4-1 F, 1-0 AF).
-- Knicks lost four of their last five games (5-10 last 15 HF).
-- Hornets lost four of last five games (2-4 last six AU).
-- Dallas lost its last two games, by 4-5 points (7-2 last nine AU).
-- Bucks lost seven of their last nine games (3-5 last eight AU).
-- Pistons lost four of their last five games (2-5 last seven AU).
-- Suns lost seven of last nine games (3-5-1 last nine AU).
-- Utah lost its last two games, by 13-3 points (3-5 last eight HF).
-- Portland lost seven of last eight games (2-6 vs spread).

Totals
-- Four of last five Toronto games stayed under total; Cleveland's last four games went over.
-- Over is 7-0-1 in last eight Sacramento games.
-- Seven of last ten Golden State games went over total.
-- Last five New Orleans games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Dallas road games went over total; Memphis' last three games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Milwaukee games.
-- Six of last seven Washington games stayed under total; four of last five Detroit games went over.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five San Antonio games.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in Atlanta's last nine games.
-- Six of last seven Denver games went over the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Kings are 1-7 vs spread if they played night before. Orlando is 4-5 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Cavaliers are 1-4 vs spread at home if they played night before.
-- Golden State is 5-4-1 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Mavericks are 7-4 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Milwaukee is 3-10 vs spread if it played night before, 2-3 on road.
-- Hornets are 6-8 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Phoenix is 3-7 vs spread on road if it played night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CBB

-- Georgetown won its last nine games, including wins at Cincy-Notre Dame-Syracuse; they allowed 55.5 ppg in last four games- its last seven wins are all by 6+ points, but they lost last three meetings with UConn, by 8-17-14 points. Huskies won seven of last nine games, winning four of last five at home (lost to Villanova)- they're 3-4 vs teams in top 40. Big East home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-10 vs spread.
-- Last game of year for Georgia State (ineligible for CAA tourney) team that came back from down 11 in first half to upset Northeastern 78-73 in Boston Jan 30, Panthers' third win in last four series games. CAA home favorites of 5 or less points are 10-19 vs spread. Huskies lost two of last three games; their last eight games were all decided by 7 or less points. State won four of last five home games, with only loss in overtime.
-- Home side won eight of last nine Western Michigan-Toledo games, as Broncos lost seven of last nine trips here, losing last two by 13-9 points. Western won first meeting 79-56 at home, shooting 56% inside arc, game that started current 9-2 run, though Broncos lost last two on road. MAC home teams are 6-15 when spread is 4 or less points. Toledo won seven of last eight games; they won four of five MAC home games.
-- Akron fell behind 23-10 early, pulled away to beat Ohio 86-72 Feb 2, just its second win in last seven series games. Zips lost last two visits to Athens, by 25-24 points, but they've won 18 in row overall, are 4-3 vs top 100 teams. Five of Akron's last seven wins are by 12+ points. Ohio won 12 of last 14 games, losing by 14-19; they force turnovers 26.3% of time. MAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 3-6 vs spread.

-- Saint Louis won last six games over St Joe's, winning last two by 16-12 points; Billikens won last nine games and 18 of last 20, winning last four at home, all by 14+ points- they're off win at Butler, an emotional game. Hawks are 2-3 last five games, losing last three road games by 6-18-12 points- they're playing slowest tempo of any team in A-16, but also force least turnovers. A-16 double digit home favorites are 8-12.
-- Evansville forced 22 turnovers (+13), outscored Wichita 20-11 on foul line in 71-67 win over Shockers Jan 13, Aces' first win in last six series games- they lost last nine visits here, with six of nine by 10+. Wichita is 7-1 in MVC home games, with five wins by 12+ points; they better not look ahead to Saturday game with Creighton. MVC double digit home favorites are 9-14. Aces' last four road losses are by 9 or less points.
-- Home side won last six Arkansas-LSU games; Hogs lost their last four trips here, by 10-11-3-6 points. Razorbacks are 5-2 in last seven games, but are 1-6 on SEC road, with only win at Auburn. SEC home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-12 vs spread. LSU is 6-2 in last eight, winning last game in triple OT; they won last five home games, with four of last five wins by 4 or less points. Jones is getting most out of his team.
-- Nevada beat Boise State 75-59 at home Jan 26, in game Boise shooting ace Eliorraga (44.7% behind arc) missed; Wolf Pack won six of last seven series games, winning last three visits here by 9-6-2. Broncos won four in row at home, four of last six overall. Nevada lost six of last seven, four in row on road, all by 12+ points. MWC home favorites of 8+ points are 8-6 vs spread. Home side won nine of last ten Boise State games.
-- Arizona held USC to 28% from floor, beat Trojans 74-50 at home Jan 26, its fourth series win in row, third by 11+ points; Wildcats won last three road games, by 4-18-17 points- they're 17-0 vs teams outside top 60 in country. USC lost last two games, by 8-16 points; they're 4-3 at home in Pac-12, losing by 8-2-16. Arizona lost three of last four visits to Galen Canter. Pac-12 home underdogs are 12-6 vs spread.

-- San Diego State beat New Mexico 55-34 at home Jan 26, its fifth win in last five series games, holding Lobos to 25% from floor; Lobos' star Williams had 46 by himself in win at Colorado State Saturday. Lobos are are 6-0 at home in MWC, with four wins by 10+ points; they've won six of last seven games, with only loss at UNLV. MWC home favorites of 6 or less points are 11-6. Aztecs lost last three on road, by 3-6-2 points.
-- Colorado won seven of last nine games; they held Stanford to 31.3% from floor in 75-54 win Jan 24. Buffs allowed 59.8 ppg last four games; four of their six Pac-12 losses were by 3 or less points, or in OT. Pac-12 home favorites of 5 or less points are 9-19 vs spread. Stanford lost four of last six games, allowing 79 ppg in last three; they lost last two games at home, by 1-8 points- they beat Buffs by 20-24 points LY.
-- Arizona State shot 57% inside arc, beat UCLA 78-60 Jan 26; Bruins were 5-24 from arc in their second loss in last seven series games. ASU lost last three visits here, by 2-18-17 points; they're 3-4 in last seven games, 3-3 on Pac-12 road, losing by 3-4-5 points. Bruins won four of last five games, are 5-2 at home in Pac-12, with four wins by 8+ points. Pac-12 home favorites of 8+ points are 6-14 against the spread.
-- Davidson is 17-2 in last 19 games vs Elon, winning last three by 8-21-16 points, but lost last visit here by 7. Wildcats won last 12 games, with four of last five road wins by 11+ points- they survived OT game with banged-up Montana Saturday- their last eight conference wins are by11+ points. Elon won 11 of last 13 games; three of their last four wins are by 4 or less points. SoCon home underdogs are 18-9 vs spread.