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Butler-LaSalle: Obviously one rested and one not. Butler opens as only a -1 point favorite. Two things, up-tempo teams can Butler the most trouble. Yes, LaSalle beat them earlier in the season by one at home. In that game Rotnei Clarke did not play for the Bulldogs.
Miami-Boston College: The Eagles were unconscious and disrespected by oddsmakers, but not here, opening as only an 8 point dog and quickly to +7.5. BC almost beat them in Boston before getting drilled in Miami. The only reason(s) this line could be that short are either they actually think BC can have revenge, or that Miami has it's eyes on the Big Dance rather than the ACC Tournament.
Illinois-Indiana: We're always going to pay a premium for the Hoosiers, even after Illinois eeked one out over Minnesota today. Normally I like to take these teams that play B2B against teams in their first game at least in the 1H. This could be yet another case of where is Indiana's head at. This Tournament or the bigger one. Since Indiana lost at Illinois they won't be taking them lightly, and the move up to 9.5 early might suggest Indiana is focused.
NC State-UVA: Classic case of speed versus sluggish here. Wolfpack haven't beaten a good team away from their own gym yet, and lost at UVA by three. They'll probably do whatever they can to speed this game up, and since I don't like their defense I have an immediate lean to the over. 'Pack opening up at -1 is almost begging for people to take them, but I can't. Only one of UVA's losses was really by much more than a possession, and I certainly trust them more down the stretch at this point.
Michigan-Wisconsin: Tough for me to pass up a team as good as Wisconsin catching points, and a team like the Badgers that defends the perimeter well. I almost wish Michigan did NOT play Thursday because it may have got the jitters out of the young team. Badgers beat them in OT in Madison this year in a low scoring game. I have to think Michigan tries real hard to speed this game up, but they are (can be) mistake prone and I could not pass up a team like the Badgers getting points with their experience. Yet.
Charlotte-St. Louis: I'm a lot surprised at what Charlotte has done, not just Thursday but the latter part of the season with all the injuries. I'm a little surprised that St. Louis opened at -11 hours ago and is still sitting there, if for no other reason than the public would be all over the Billikens. I certainly doubt at this point I could lay that chalk, even figuring the glass slipper will soon break, but Charlotte is pretty relaxed with nothing to lose, and those can be dangerous teams. Again, where is St. Louis' head at. This Tournament or the bigger one.
Tennessee-Alabama: Both teams are playing really well, and again, I would seriously consider the Vols at least for the first half. These teams split close games, with each winning on their home court. I almost put the Vols in that "we've got nothing to lose" category at this point. No doubt a lower scoring game, in which case we'd want the team that turns it over the least and shoots better from the line, and that would be Tennessee in most cases, but the rebounding edge goes to the Tide. Lean Tide slightly, but reserve the right to change my mind tomorrow.
UTEP-Southern Mississippi: I really want to take the Miners here, but with the injury to Bohannon that may be tougher to do than I originally thought. However, UTEP is the bigger and more experienced team, and it is easier to slow a game down rather than speed one up, so we make be watching that line very carefully.
Alright, so yesterday was a break even day for some. A small loser as written up for others. And a small WINNER for a lot as well as the Xavier game went off with a nice 0.5 point cushion. OUR MEMBERS had a PERFECT 3-0 night in the NBA and NHL, so we finished the day 6-4-2 overall on our end. But we decided that wasn't good enough, so here we go again with the morning action!! We apologize if you receive this email two times.....
But let's get that money today!!
TODAY'S ACTION --
(NCAA BB)
*2 UNITS* ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (+9.5)
The Illinois win yesterday over Minnesota was ugly to say the least. Minnesota essentially gave that game away, being up 3 with a minute left and the ball and then turning it over with 14 seconds left. They then promptly gave up the winning shot with a second left. Ouch. Worst part was the Gophers were held with 0 FG and only 2 points (made FT's) over the final 6 minutes of the game. Two points! The down side to that is, the Gophers also lead by 3 points at that 6 minute mark and the game ended the way it did. Although Illinois played tough down the stretch, literally if you saw the game, it was ugly. But saying that, Illinois wasn't scoring at all themselves, as they had 0 points in a span from just under 6 minutes in the game to 47 seconds left in the game. But Illinois was talented enough to make the upset happen and they seem to have come to play in this tournament. They most likely won't beat Indiana but even the histort between these two teams suggests it will be close. I'm sure we've all seen by know how Illinois ran that perfect inbounds play down the middle of the floor with something like a minute left on the clock to upset Indiana 74-72 in their only season meeting, but 3 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 3 points. Illinois is also actually 7-3 ML in the last 7 meetings between the two schools, but they were usually the better team in that span. Indiana is 4-2 ATS in the L6 meetings, posting a 1-1 ATS record when playing as the favorite. This game should also have quite a bit of scoring as Indiana should control the pace for most of the contest. In neutral court games this season they have hit for 44% of their 3's, while allowing over 41% to their opponents. Illinois should come out with a little edge in this one picking up the momentum from yesterday, but in the end we see this more in like the 6-point range. Illinois could also come out shooting hot, so look forward to this one hitting the OVER early and often too. Surprisingly, Indiana has posted a dismal 1-5 ML record in their L6 games to kick off their Big Ten Tournament with almost all of those losses against the either Penn State or Northwestern. Illinois hasn't been all that better going 3-5 ML in their L8 BTT games and haven't fared all that well in the second round, since they lost in the championship to Wisconsin in 2008. The Hoosiers were also 1-2 ATS in neutral court games, while the Illini were 4-2 ATS in their 6 neutral court games including yesterday's tournament opener. Also, just to note, both teams played Butler on a neutral court. Indiana lost a heartbreaker in OT, 88-86, playing as a -10.5 favorite. The Illini destroyed the Bulldogs, 78-61, as a -2.5 favorite. Take that for what you will. But definitely take the ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI to COVER the near double-digit spread here.......
*2 UNITS* NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK MONEY LINE (-120)
This team is good and could be a force to reckon with come tournament time. Virginia is also a tough team, but the Wolfpack should have enough firepower to outlast them here and NC STATE could be a sleeper pick to get to the ACC Championship game, we think. Virginia has owned this series for the most part, taking 5 out of the L6 meetings between the two schools and posting a 7-3 ATS record in the L10 overall. On the flip side, NC ST has covered in each of the L2 meetings with a win on the road in Virginia last season. Virginia comes in off an OT win over Maryland to end their season, while NC STATE was an easy play we should have been on, as they absolutely destroyed Virginia Tech in their tournament-opener. The Wolfpack have found their groove as of late too, going 5-1 ATS in their L6 games as a favorite and they are 20-2 ML overall this season when they are playing as the fave. 20-2!! They are 1-5 ML in their 6 games as the underdog. The Cavaliers are an average 2-3 ML when playing as the underdog. NC STATE was also 3-1 ML when playing on a neutral court this season and they outscored their opponents by an average score of over 7 points. Virginia on the other hand was 0-2 ML and 0-1 ATS as they lost by two points to Old Dominion as a -14 point favorite and they lost by 6 points to Delaware without even a spread being issued on the game. Virginia has also posted a weak 1-4 ML record in their L5 games of an ACC Tournament. They are an even worse 1-5 ML in their L6 opening games of the tournament and they were bounced out of this very same tournament in the first round last season by this NC STATE team. Go with the NC STATE WOLFPACK on the MONEY LINE in this one.......
BUTLER BULLDOGS (-1)
Alright, I really hate to even recommend a play with almost 80% of the public on it and as much as I love La Salle this season, I just can't see them pulling this one off. Butler has a pretty impressive resume on a neutral court this season (surprise, surprise) and their domination of anything tournament related is too good too pass up. For starters, Butler is 3-1 ML on a neutral court in 2012-13, with their only loss coming against Illinois, while beating the likes of Indiana (88-86 in OT); North Carolina (82-71) and Marquette (72-71) - all 3 tournament headed teams. This one is mostly likely a 1-point spread for a couple reasons. One La Salle beat Butler by 1 point at home earlier this season, and secondly, La Salle pretty much needs a win and they are in the big dance. If they lose, they are sweating it out like we will be during this game. The Bulldogs also come into this one 19-4 ML in their L23 postseason tournament games since the 2009-2010 season. This team hasn't been the same usual Butler team we have all come to expect, as they have struggled to go 4-3 ML in their L7 games overall. La Salle comes in completely out of whack after their season-ending blowout loss at the hands of St. Louis and they will have to shake off the rust of the long 5 day layoff they have had. They were disappointing as an underdog this season, producing a measly 1-5 ML record when getting the points. The Explorers were also an even more disappointing 0-3 ATS when playing the underdog in a game with a spread of +1 - +1.5, while Butler when 1-0 ATS and ML in games with a 1 - 1.5 spread, although they too were the underdog in that one. La Salle could be without a big center (S. Zack) for this one and he is a productive member of the paint provided 6.5 PTS / 6.5 REB a game. He was absent for their last two games and it was evident in the rebounding department, as La Salle was outrebounded 60-41 in those 2 games. That too most likely won't work against Butler, as they have dominated teams for the most part when they outrebound them, posting a 21-5 ML record in their 26 games this season in which they have outrebounded their opponents. Butler should be fully healthy, fully charged and looking to exact revenge on this talented La Salle team. Run with the BUTLER BULLDOGS on the SPREAD here today.....
TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS MONEY LINE (-125)
The Vols should have more than enough to outlast this Alabama squad that has been going backwards as the season has progressed. These two teams split their two meetings this season by a combined 4 points with Alabama's win holding more of the weight. Tennessee won by 1 point on their home court in their last meeting (54-53) so this one should be another battle. If this game has an OVER/UNDER above the 130 mark, also jump on the UNDER and this one should easily coast to victory and these two teams should most likely get no higher than the low 60's each. Tennessee is rolling right now too, having won 9 of their L10 games straight up and they were 7-3 ML and ATS this season in all games with a spread of 2.5 points or less. They were 1-1 as a -1.5 favorite. Alabama was 2-1 ML and ATS in that same spread situation, but they were 0-1 ML when playing as the underdog. Run with the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS to WIN on the MONEY LINE in this battle.......
*0.25 UNITS* ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI MONEY LINE (+420)
*0.25 UNITS* (PARLAY) / PAYOUT APPROX 11-1
(ILLINOIS (+9.5); NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK MONEY LINE (-120); TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS MONEY LINE (-125); UNDER TENNESSEE/ALABAMA)
There you have it!! That is our action to kick off this FRISKY FRIDAY in the NCAA BB!! We will be back with a 2nd batch of plays in the evening games, so make sure to check back to your emails for a 1 hour window or so between a 5 PM EST / 2 PM PST time.
Best of luck to all today!! Let's get that money!!
Illinois vs Indiana (-9) 12:00 PM EST ESPN
10* Indiana (-9)
Clearly the Illini are playing far better than late January, just prior to their amazing home comeback upset of Indiana 74-72 as 8-point home dog. But check out the gift we get in this point spread with a line that is just 1 point more than what Indiana laid on the road. Hoosiers backed in to the Big 10 title when the Wolves missed numerous front-ends of one and ones on Sunday. And as soon as they line up against a tempo team, we’ll be looking to fade them. But the Illini have shown no propensity to want to slow it down. They won their donkey game in a mini upset versus the underground Gophers, when they forced 19 turnovers, but they shot just 32% and were -12 on the boards in that 51-49 victory. Fundamentals all wrong for the Illini in this game, much like when the Hoosiers had them blown out in the first meet. Revenge motive offsets that of the Hoosiers celebration of their regular season title, and at a value price, keys this blowout.
Play Against - Any team (KANSAS) hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%)
124-69 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.2% 48.1 units )
16-10 this year. ( 61.5% 5.0 units )
CBB MICHIGAN at WISCONSIN
Play Against - Any team (WISCONSIN) a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after a combined score of 125 points or less 4 straight games.
81-43 since 1997. ( 65.3% 35.8 units )
11-8 this year. ( 57.9% 3.0 units )
CBB SAN DIEGO ST at NEW MEXICO
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 55.5 to 60.5 after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread.
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.9 units )
Play Under - Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season.
140-79 since 1997. ( 63.9% 53.1 units )
9-7 this year. ( 56.3% 1.3 units )
NBA MIAMI at MILWAUKEE
Play On - Any team vs the money line (MIAMI) an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half.
35-15 since 1997. ( 70.0% 22.9 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )
NBA CHICAGO at GOLDEN STATE
Play On - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (GOLDEN STATE) in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO) after 42+ games
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% 2.7 units )
EAGLE EYE SPORTS---ROBERT HENZIE
Your Pick: San Diego State +1.5 (-110)
Your Pick: Indiana Pacers -9.5 (-110)
Your Pick: Michigan -3.5 (-110)
--------------------------------
EAGLE EYE SPORTS---TIM BUZAN
Butler-1.5
NC State-2
10* Personal Favorite: Houston Rockets
10* Situational Shocker: Cleveland Cavs
10* Blue Chip: Devils Under 5.5
10* Tourney Best Bet: San Diego State
9* Early Afternoon Annihilator: Alabama
Kansas looks to continue its dominance when the No. 6 and top-seeded Jayhawks play fifth-seeded Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament semifinals Friday in Kansas City, Mo. The Jayhawks beat ninth-seeded Texas Tech 91-63 in Thursday’s quarterfinals to advance to the semifinals for the 15th time in 17 years. Kansas swept Iowa State during the regular season with overtime wins of 97-89 in Lawrence on Jan. 9 and 108-96 in Ames on Feb. 25.
Iowa State defeated fourth-seeded Oklahoma 73-66 in Thursday’s quarterfinals to advance to the semifinals for the first time since 2000. The victory was the Cyclones’ first in the Big 12 tournament since a first-round win over Baylor on March 10, 2005. Iowa State, which leads the country in 3-pointers per game (10), missed its first 10 attempts against the Sooners but finished 7-for-26 from long distance.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
ABOUT KANSAS (27-5, 17-14-0 ATS): The Jayhawks are 63-24 all-time in league tournament play, including 33-8 in the Big 12 tournament and 15-2 in Big 12 quarterfinal games. Kansas’ 91 points against Texas Tech are the most in a Big 12 tournament game since Colorado scored 91 in a double-overtime victory over Baylor in 2008. The Jayhawks set a Big 12 tournament record for field goal percentage, shooting a season-high 66 percent against Texas Tech. Redshirt freshman guard Ben McLemore scored 24 points against the Red Raiders for his 10th 20-plus point game. The Jayhawks tied a season high with 12 steals against Texas Tech.
ABOUT IOWA STATE (22-10, 15-12-2 ATS): The Cyclones are 8-15 all-time in the Big 12 tournament and 4-9 in first-round games. Junior forward Melvin Ejim, who led the conference in rebounding, notched his Big 12-best 14th double-double with a career-high 23 points and 12 rebounds against Oklahoma. Ejim has recorded a double-double against every Big 12 team. Redshirt senior guard Will Clyburn passed the 1,000 career points mark with a 17-point performance against the Sooners.
TRENDS:
* Jayhawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Jayhawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Big 12 foes.
TIP-INS
1. Kansas’ 28-point win over Texas Tech marked the Jayhawks’ largest margin of victory in the Big 12 tournament since beating the Red Raiders 90-50 in the 2002 tournament semifinals.
2. Kansas coach Bill Self’s career record is 296-58 at Kansas and 503-163 overall.
3. Ejim is eighth on Iowa State’s career rebounding list (740).
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Kansas State Wildcats (-1, 136)
Oklahoma State and Kansas State meet for the second time in less than a week Friday when the teams square off in the Big 12 semifinals in Kansas City. The third-seeded Cowboys advanced with a dramatic 74-72 victory over Baylor on Thursday, while No. 2 seed Kansas State pulled away in the second half for a 17-point win over Texas. Oklahoma State ended a three-game losing streak against the Wildcats with a 76-70 win Saturday.
Kansas State, which defeated the Cowboys 73-67 on Jan. 5, has won 11 of its last 13 games while making a believer out of Texas coach Rick Barnes. “Kansas State is really good,” Barnes told reporters after Thursday’s game. “I mean, really, really good. I love what they're made up of. I love their makeup. I love the way they do a lot of things. They play extremely well together.”
TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, Big 12 Network, ESPNU
ABOUT KANSAS STATE (26-6, 14-13-1 ATS): Senior wing Rodney McGruder had a game-high 24 points in the Wildcats’ quarterfinal victory after scoring 22 against Oklahoma State on Saturday. Forward Jordan Henriquez was limited to 10 minutes against Oklahoma State because of back problems, but is hoping to be more involved Friday. Freshman D.J. Johnson came off the bench to replace Henriquez and had eight points and seven rebounds against Texas. The Wildcats lead the Big 12 in scoring defense while holding opponents to an average of 60.2 points.
ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (24-7, 15-13-2 ATS): The Cowboys nearly blew a 20-point lead against Baylor before advancing to the tournament semifinals for the first time since 2009. Oklahoma State was held to six field goals in the second half, but escaped with the win after Phil Forte made two free throws with 2.9 seconds left. Sophomore forward Le'Bryan Nash, who scored 13 of his 14 points in the second half against Baylor, had a team-high 24 points against Kansas State on Saturday. Point guard Marcus Smart, the Big 12 player and freshman of the year, averaged 23 points in two games against the Wildcats.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Cowboys are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 neutral site games.
* Over is 15-6 in Wildcats' last 21 vs. Big 12.
TIP-INS:
1. The winner will advance to the Big 12 title game against Iowa State or Kansas.
2. Oklahoma State has shot 50 percent or better from the floor in three of its last five games.
3. Kansas State is undefeated (20-0) when outrebounding its opponent.
UCLA looks to beat Arizona for the third time this season when the teams meet Friday in the semifinals of the Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas. The Bruins advanced with an 80-75 victory over Arizona State on Thursday, while Arizona held off Colorado 79-69. The top-seeded Bruins have won six of their last seven games and appear to be peaking at the right time behind the play of freshman wing Shabazz Muhammad, who scored 12 of his 16 points in the second half against Arizona State.
The fourth-seeded Wildcats closed the regular season by losing two of three, but they used a balanced offensive attack to get past Colorado. Arizona’s reserves scored a combined 25 points, and sophomore guard Nick Johnson had a team-high 18 points. Point guard Mark Lyons missed seven of his nine shots from beyond the arc and finished with 14 points, and he's shooting 25.5 percent (12-of-47) over his last four games.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network
ABOUT NO. 25 UCLA (24-8, 14-17-0 ATS): Muhammad receives most of the media attention, but Arizona coach Sean Miller said senior point guard Larry Drew II is the key to the Bruins’ success. Drew had 20 points, four assists and two turnovers in 34 minutes against Arizona State, and he’s averaged nine assists in the first two games against the Wildcats. “Larry Drew has been a huge reason why we’ve lost both games,” Miller told reporters. “He has scored and he’s also gotten his teammates easy baskets. We have to be able to contain him.”
ABOUT NO. 18 ARIZONA (25-6, 14-15-0 ATS): While Lyons has fallen into a shooting slump, Johnson has averaged 15 points over the last three games. Reserve guard Jordin Mayes had eight points against Colorado, and he’s made five of his last eight shots from 3-point range over the last four games. Arizona has struggled offensively in its two losses to UCLA, shooting 40.9 percent from the field and averaging 15 turnovers. The Wildcats need a strong game from senior forward Solomon Hill, who was limited to seven points and four boards in a 74-69 loss to the Bruins on March 2.
TRENDS:
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
TIP-INS:
1. The winner faces Utah or Oregon in Saturday’s title game at 11 p.m. ET.
2. The Wildcats are 23-0 when holding their opponents to fewer than 70 points.
3. UCLA is looking to avenge a 66-58 loss to Arizona in last year’s Pac-12 quarterfinals.
Utah Utes vs. Oregon Ducks (-7.5, 131)
Utah has won four straight and will try to extend its longest winning streak in four years when it plays third-seeded Oregon in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals Friday night in Las Vegas. The No. 10-seed Utes have been the surprise of the postseason, knocking off seventh-seeded USC in Wednesday’s opening round and upsetting No. 2 California in overtime in Thursday’s quarterfinals. Oregon also needed overtime to advance to the semifinals, outlasting sixth-seeded Washington thanks to 11 overtime points from senior forward Arsalan Kazemi.
The Ducks ended a three-game losing streak with a 73-64 win Feb. 9 against the visiting Utes, and Utah posted the second victory in their current winning streak with a 72-62 victory March 9 against visiting Oregon. Utah senior center Jason Washburn recorded two of his three 20-point games this season against the Ducks, while Oregon senior forward E.J. Singler had two of his four 20-point games against the Utes.
TV: 11:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
ABOUT UTAH (15-17, 20-9-1 ATS): Jarred DuBois deserves plenty of credit for getting the Utes this far. The 6-3 senior transfer from Loyola Marymount scored 22 points against USC and came back with 21 more against the Golden Bears. During the four-game win streak, DuBois is shooting 57.1 percent. He scored 15 points in both games against Oregon this season. The wildcard for Utah could be 6-6 freshman forward Jordan Loveridge, who scored 14 points in each of game this season against the Ducks.
ABOUT OREGON (24-8, 11-18-1 ATS): Singler has been productive against the Huskies this season, and the Ducks need him to follow suit if they hope to win a tournament title. Most of Singler’s numbers are still below what he averaged the last two seasons, but he has shown signs of being postseason ready. He has combined for 37 points in each of the last two games, shooting 14-for-24 in the process. After reaching double figures in 28 of 34 games last season, he has yet to score in double figures in three straight games this season.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Utes are 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 games overall.
* Ducks are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
TIP-INS:
1. Utah starting small forward Cedric Martin left in the first half of the win against California with an ankle injury and his status for the semifinal is undetermined. He averages just under four points a game.
2. Utah freshman guard Brandon Taylor is averaging 10.8 points over the last four games to increase his scoring average to 6.5.
3. Oregon point guard Dominic Artis started against Washington, his first since coming back from a nine-game absence due to foot injury. Artis, who came off the bench the previous three games, went scoreless and sat while Loyd played in the overtime.
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