Andy Iskoe | CBB Sides - Tuesday, Mar 19 2013 7:15PM
547 Louisiana Tech 3.5 vs 548 Florida St. single-dime bet
547 Louisiana Tech 3.5 vs 548 Florida St. single-dime bet
| NBA | Mar 19 '13 (7:05p) Orlando Magic vs Indiana Pacers |
Orlando Magic +11-107 at 5dimes |
| 15* NBA GAME OF THE NIGHT on Orlando Magic +11 I'm siding with the Orlando Magic tonight as a double-digit underdog to the Indiana Pacers. Orlando is underrated due to its 18-49 record on the season, and that has been evident over the past few weeks as it has gone 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games overall. Those five covers include a win at New Orleans (105-102) as a 9-point dog, a home win over Philadelphia (99-91) as a 1-point dog, a 96-97 (OT) loss at Miami as a 15.5-point dog, a 104-117 loss at Oklahoma City as a 17.5-point dog, and a 109-115 loss at Milwaukee as a 9-point dog. As you can see, the Magic have been very competitive against some of the top teams in the league. They did lost 86-115 at home to Indiana on March 8th less than two weeks ago during this stretch. However, that places the them in revenge mode tonight wanting payback for such an embarrassing defeat. Indiana is in a very tough spot tonight. It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days after winning at Cleveland last night, which followed up losses to the Lakers and 76ers. The Pacers will also have a hard time getting motivated to beat a Magic team that they just throttled on March 9th. Making matters worse for the Pacers is the fact that David West (back) missed last night's game and he's unlikely to return tonight against Orlando. So there's a good chance they'll be short-handed, which doesn't bode well for the fatigue they'll be feeling from playing 4 days in 5 days. West is their second-leading scorer (17.3 PPG) and rebounder (7.7 RPG). This play falls into a system that is 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - good defensive team - allowing <=91 points/game on the season, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game. The Magic are 20-11 ATS as an underdog this season. Orlando is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Indiana is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a ATS win. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. These six trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing Orlando. Roll with the Magic Tuesday. |
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| NCAA-B | Mar 19 '13 (9:00p) NORTHEASTERN vs ALABAMA |
NORTHEASTERN +12-110 at BetOnline |
| 20* NIT GAME OF THE NIGHT on Northeastern +12 Northeastern is showing excellent value as a double-digit underdog to Alabama Tuesday night in the opening round of the NIT. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Huskies in a game that I believe they can win outright. Alabama comes into the NIT in a poor state of mind. After beating Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, it thought it had a legitimate shot to be playing in the NCAA Tournament. It lost to Florida in the next round and was left out by the committee. The Crimson Tide likely don't even want to be here. Northeastern (20-12), on the other hand, is ecstatic to be playing in the NIT after losing in its conference tournament to James Madison. The Huskies are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Of their 12 losses, only two came by more than 11 points. Those were a 63-83 loss at UAB, and a 57-70 loss to James Madison on a neutral court. What I love most about Northeastern is the fact that it has played its best basketball on the road this season. In fact, it is just 7-8 at home this year, and an incredible 13-4 on the road. The Huskies will not be intimidated by Alabama's home crowd one bit tonight. This play falls into a system that is 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (NORTHEASTERN) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher. Alabama is 0-6 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. Northeastern is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season. The Crimson Tide are 2-10 ATS as a home favorite or pick this season. The Huskies are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Northeastern Tuesday. |
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| NCAA-B | Mar 19 '13 (9:10p) MIDDLE TENN ST vs SAINT MARYS CA |
SAINT MARYS CA -2½-110 at BMaker |
| 15* MTSU/Saint Mary's TruTV No-Brainer on Saint Mary's -3 The Saint Mary's Gaels certainly deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament. The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders, on the other hand, do not. That's evident when you look at the strength of schedule that these teams have faced. St. Mary's is 27-6 on the season with three of its losses coming against current No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, Gonzaga. Its other three losses all came away from home to Pacific, Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa, which are three quality teams. The Gaels have beaten NCAA Tournament teams Creighton and Harvard, and they have two wins over a very good BYU team as well. While Middle Tennessee State is 28-5 on the season, a closer look shows that it really hasn't beaten anyone special. Its five losses have come to Florida (45-66), Akron (77-82), Belmont (49-64), Arkansas State (60-66) and Florida International (57-61). What the committee apparently considering its significant wins were vs. Ole Miss (65-62), at UCF (75-61) and vs. Vanderbilt (56-52). I really don't see a quality win there anywhere. The Gaels are a perfect 19-0 SU in their last 19 games against teams other than Gonzaga dating back to December 27th. They are more battle-tested heading into the big dance, and as a result they will be more prepared to beat a team like Middle Tennessee State tonight. I believe that St. Mary's is the second-best team that the Blue Raiders have faced all season, and they won't be ready for it. MTSU is 0-6 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The Blue Raiders are 0-7 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Blue Raiders are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Gaels. Take St. Mary's Tuesday. |
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