3-28-13

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Dallas won nine of its last 12 games (won last three at home). Pacers won five of their last six games (6-3 last nine road games).
-- Kings are 5-4 in their last nine games (5-2 last seven AU).

Cold Teams
-- Lakers lost three of last four games (1-3 last four AU). Bucks lost four in row, seven of last nine games (1-3 last four HF).
-- Suns lost four in row, eight of last nine games (0-4 last four HF).

Totals
-- Last three Los Angeles games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Indiana road games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Phoenix games went over the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Lakers are 2-5 vs spread last seven times they played night before. Milwaukee is 5-12 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Indiana is 6-7 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Sacramento is 4-7 vs spread last 11 times they played night before. Suns are 6-11 vs spread if they played night before.

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CBB

Thursday's games
Underdogs are 11-5 vs spread in regional semis last two years; Syracuse will have crowd advantage playing in Washington, but since '04, Orange lost three of four regional finals, losing by 9-13-4 points, winning by one LY- they're 0-6 vs spread in last six regional semis, with two wins by a point. Indiana beat Georgetown in OT in its only game vs Big East team this year; Crean has experience vs Syracuse zone when he was coaching Marquette up until '08 (0-2 vs Syracuse in Big East). Crean is 1-1 in this round, losing to Kentucky LY, upsetting Pitt in '03. Since 2002, #1 seeds are 9-3 vs #4 seeds in this round, but only 5-7 vs spread.

Miami won its last six games, five by 10+ points; this is same building where Larranaga won regionals with George Mason in '06. Hurricanes are #9 in country in experience, played #14 schedule- they allowed 54 ppg in first two tourney games, after winning ACC tournament. Since 2002, underdogs are 7-4 vs spread when 2-seed plays a 3-seed in this round. Marquette was down six with 1:10 to Davidson in first round, trailed by down 8 at half to Butler Saturday- they lost in this round last two years, by 18 to UNC, 10 to Florida. Over last decade, ACC tournament winner is 3-5 in this round, despite being favored in eight of the nine games.

LaSalle-Wichita is 9-13 game, first one in tourney history- there was an 8-13 game in '98, with Valparaiso losing/covering vs URI. Explorers won three games last week, after losing last regular season game by 24, first game in A-16 tourney by 11- they've got average experience, are #320 in bench minutes but defend arc (29.9%) well. Wichita pummeled Pitt, then upset #1 seed Gonzaga-- Shockers are 14-1 outside MVC, losing 69-60 at Tennessee- they're #79 in experience, played #67 schedule. LaSalle is #173 in experience, played #77 schedule. Explorers give up 64.5% of its points inside arc, highest percentage in country, partly because center Zack is out injured.

Last five years, team that won Big 10 tourney got to Sweet 16, then lost this game, despite being favored four times; only twice in last decade has tourney winner gotten to Elite 8 (1-6 vs spread in regional semi). SoCal site favors Arizona whose fans were all over Vegas for Pac-12 tourney two weeks ago; Wildcat coach Miller was once an assistant for Matta when he was Xavier's coach. Since 1987, underdogs are 15-9-1 vs spread when 2-seed plays 6-seed in this round. Arizona won by 17-23 in its first two tourney games, but they're going way up in class vs Buckeyes, after facing Belmont/Harvard last week. Wildcats are 14-0 in non-league games, with only three of those wins against top 40 teams.

Friday's NCAA games
Louisville is 12-0 since losing in five OTs to Notre Dame Feb 9, winning last seven games by 12+ points each; Pitino is 4-0 in this round with the Cardinals (4-0 vs spread) winning by 14-19-39-13 points. Louisville is #2 in country at forcing turnovers (28.2% of time). Oregon turns ball over 21.5% of time (#264 in country); they lost by 11 to Cincinnati on neutral floor in only game vs Big East foe; they've won last five games, allowing 57-55 points in two tourney wins. Since 2001, #1 seeds are 8-2 vs spread in this round when facing someone other than a 4-5 seed (15-18 vs 4-5 seeds). Teams that won Pac-12 tourney are 3-2 in this round, 1-4 vs spread, 0-2 as underdogs, losing by 13-14 points.

Since 2005, Duke is 1-4 in this round, despite being favored in all five of the games, losing as favorites of 5-5-2-4 points. Since 1987, Duke is 8-3 vs Big Dozen teams in NCAAs; they're 2-1 vs Michigan State, winning 85-74 (-5) in '94, 68-62 (-12) in '99, losing in '05 78-68 (-5). Blue Devils beat Minnesota by 18, Ohio State by 5 in two tilts vs Big Dozen teams this year. Spartans are 14-2 outside Big Dozen play, but one of losses was 67-59 at Miami, its only game vs ACC team. Since '01, underdogs are 9-7 vs spread when 2-seed faces a 3-seed in this round. Spartans are holding teams to 29.8% from arc; Duke makes 40.3% behind arc, 5th in country. Appling hurt his shoulder last week, is expected to play here.

Bill Self is 5-1 (3-3 vs spread) in Sweet 16 games at Kansas, winning by 15-3-15-20-3 points, losing only to Michigan State (-2.5) in '09- they've won 12 of last 13 games (lost at Baylor), winning first two tourney tilts by 7-12, allowing 57.5 ppg. Michigan beat K-State by 14, West Virginia by 15 in its two games vs Big X teams; Wolverines won first two games in NCAAs by 15-25 points after going 6-6 in last 12 regular season tilts. #1 seeds are 15-18 vs spread in this round when facing a 4-5 seed (8-2 vs others). Michigan is young (#339 in experience), doesn't sub much (#325 in bench minutes) but their 54.6 eFG% is #11 in country. Jayhawk foes shoot just 38.7% inside arc; Michigan better make some 3-pointers.

Florida Gulf Coast is first 15-seed to get this far; they beat pair of teams last week (Hoyas/Aztecs) that struggle on offense, now Florida (28-1 in games decided by 10+ points, 0-6 in games decided by less than 10) are presenting a different problem- Gators shoot 38.3% from arc, 55.1% on 2-pointers are #28 in experience. FGCU has five losses to teams ranked outside top 200, but not now; this confident, athletic team has only two seniors in its rotation, but Comer is superior PG who has Eagles running and playing with swagger. Florida won its last five Sweet 16 games (4-1 vs spread) winning by 9-4-8-9-10 points. Hard to go against the Eagles here, but when Cinderella goes down, it often goes down by a big score.

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Pittsburgh won last 13 games, allowing nine goals in its last nine games. Jets won six of last nine games.
-- Islanders won last three road games, allowing five goals.
-- Senators won four of their last five games.
-- Sabres won three of their last four games.
-- Predators won last three games, scoring 13 goals.
-- Kings won four of their last six games.
-- Canucks won their last five games, despite scoring only nine goals.
-- Red Wings won five of their last six games. San Jose won three of four.

Cold teams
-- Carolina lost its last six games, scoring seven goals. Maple Leafs lost seven of last ten.
-- Flyers lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Rangers lost three of their last four road games.
-- Panthers lost three in row, nine of last eleven games.
-- Coyotes lost their last seven games, scoring eight goals.
-- Blues lost three of their last four games.
-- Columbus lost its last two games, scoring two goals. Edmonton lost three of four.
-- Avalanche lost seven of its last eight games.

Totals
-- Under is 11-3-1 in last fifteen Winnipeg games.
-- Seven of last eight Carolina-Toronto games stayed under.
-- Under is 4-2-1 in Flyers' last seven games.
-- Under is 5-1-2 in last eight Ranger games.
-- Seven of last eight Florida games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-0-2 in last seven Nashville games.
-- Last six St Louis games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Columbus-Edmonton games went over.
-- Six of last seven Colorado games went over the total; last five Vancouver games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Detroit-San Jose games stayed under the total.

Series records
-- Penguins won four of last five games with Winnipeg.
-- Hurricanes won their last four games with Toronto.
-- Islanders lost 11 of last 13 games with Philadelphia.
-- Rangers lost six of last nine games with Ottawa.
-- Florida won three of last four games against the Sabres.
-- Coyotes won five of last seven games with Nashville.
-- Kings won seven of last ten games with St Louis.
-- Oilers won five of last seven games with Columbus.
-- Canucks won their last nine games with Colorado.
-- Red Wings lost three of last four visits to San Jose.

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Marquette vs. Miami (FL)

The Hurricanes look to take advantage of a Marquette team that is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall. Miami (FL) is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hurricanes favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, MARCH 28 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 807-808: Syracuse vs. Indiana (9:45 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 71.864; Indiana 72.513 Dunkel Line: Indiana by 1; 140 Vegas Line: Indiana by 5 1/2; 135 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (+5 1/2); Over

Game 809-810: Marquette vs. Miami (FL) (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Marquette 66.549; Miami (FL) 73.692 Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 7; 125 Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 5 1/2; 127 Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-5 1/2); Under

Game 811-812: Arizona vs. Ohio State (7:47 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 68.350; Ohio State 76.116 Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 8; 137 Vegas Line: Ohio State by 3; 133 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-3); Over

Game 813-814: LaSalle vs. Wichita State (10:17 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 63.466; Wichita State 69.176 Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 5 1/2; 132 Vegas Line: Wichita State by 4; 135 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-4); Under

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

Mill Bucks -1

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1007-747 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free winner 6-2 run THURS: Over the total 5 Kings/LA

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Todayspicks
Indiana-5.5
Wichita st-4
Marquette+5.5
Ohioan St-3.5

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Primerimesportspicks
Syracuse+5.5
Az/Ohio st OVER 134

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CAPPERS ACCESS
CBB
Marquette
Arizona
Syracuse

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JOE WIZ FREE PLAY

Under Phoenix and Sacramento

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Where the Action is: Early Sweet 16 Line Moves

Spreads for the NCAA tournament Sweet 16 games are up and action has trickled in at books online and Las Vegas. We take a look at the biggest adjustments on the board as Thursday and Friday draw closer.

Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Miami Hurricanes – Open: -5.5, Move: -6

Miami is quickly becoming the public darling in this tournament and the Hurricanes’ Sweet 16 matchup with Marquette is no exception. Early money is on Miami and books expect that trend to stick until tipoff.

“Unless the sharps come in on the dog, I can't see how this game doesn't close Miami -6 or more,” Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports. “Marquette has to feel very fortunate to be here winning both of its games by a combined three points.”

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. Florida Gators – Open: -11.5, Move: -13.5

Some markets have bumped this spread all the way to -13.5. Early action on the upstart Eagles was followed by a flood of money from the wiseguys, who think the clock is about to strike midnight on this year’s biggest Cinderella.

“People got a little excited after watching them blow away San Diego State,” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas. “But then the pros came back hard on Florida.”

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Arizona Wildcats – Open: +4, Move: +3.5

Sharp money immediately bet the underdog and dropped this spread half a point. Since then, it’s been good two-way money, but books aren’t sure the wiseguys are done with this West Regional semifinal just yet.

“I do believe the sharps are going to line up on this game and take the dog,” says Stewart. “I believe this line closes at Ohio State -3.”

Wichita State Shockers vs. La Salle Explorers – Open: -4, Move: -3.5, Move: -4

With these two lesser known Cinderella squads playing for a spot in the Elite Eight, books aren’t holding out hope for a big handle on this West Regional semifinal.

According to Stoneback at the MGM, the two previous games featuring WSU and La Salle had half the handle of the other Round of 32 games.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils – Open: -1, Move: -2

These perennial Sweet 16 programs clash in a battle of big names and should be one of the biggest draws for bettors. CarbonSports debated opening -1.5 or -2 but went Duke -1.5 and instantly took sharp money on the favorite.

“So far, we have even action at that price so I don't see us moving off that number any time soon,” says Stewart.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Kansas Jayhawks – Open: -2.5, Move: -1.5, Move: -2

Early money is convinced Michigan has the firepower to take down the No. 1 seed in the South Regional, and has walked this line down a full point since post. But, Rock Chalk action is starting to show since the adjustment.

“At Kansas -1.5, money started showing on them so we went to -2 and haven't moved off that number,” says Stewart.

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ROB VENO

20* Blue Chip: Syracuse/Indiana Over 135.5
10* Miami-Florida -5
10* La Salle/Wichita State Over 135

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STEVE FEZZIK

811 Arizona +3.5 (-110) vs 812 Ohio St. Analysis: 811 Arizona +3.5 3 stars. For betting purposes, I am recommending a 1 star bet on AZ in the 1st half, and a 2 star bet on AZ for the game.

Ohio State has become THE most overrated team in this tournament. The NCAA tournament dealt them a free roll into the Sweet 16, giving them a dream draw: Two games at 'home' in the U. of Dayton Arena, where the Buckeye fans packed the house. Despite this, they were all set to go down to the 4th best team in the Big12, a horrible road team, Iowa State, until a bad referee call kept them in the game, and then Aaron Craft hit a 3 at the buzzer to get them into the final 16. Don't forget the same Big12 conference has been exposed as a massively overrated one, with every one of their teams but Kansas being bounced early.
Don't be fooled by Ohio State Winning the Big10 Tourney. Izzo typically "dumps" in this tourne y, knowing it is the Big Dance that matters, so the Buckeyes 61-58 win is devalued. Further, Ohio State did beat Whisky in the finals by 7, but that game was much closer than the score, and Ohio State had recent 22 point blowout loss revenge to motivate them. The Big10 schedule played out perfectly for the Bucks. They got to beat up on Purdue and Psu and Iowa EARLY in the year when these teams were playing badly, and then got NWU twice LATE in the year when NWU was decimated (Buckeyes won both those games by only 10). Against the 'real' teams in the BIg10 (Mich/mich st/Ind/Ill/whisky) this team was outscored by 17 overall points during the regular season, and in their showcase non conf game, they lost at home to KU by 8.

Further, don't be fooled by how well the Big10 has done in the Big Dance. Ind, Mich,Mich st, and Ohio St all got two 'home' games, of course they are 8-0 SU.

Meanwhile Az is the clear cut best team in the Pac12, quietly dismantling their first two over matched opponents. Now, they get to play a schedule they are used to in the Pac12, a road trip to Los Angeles to play on Thursday and Saturday. The Staples Center will certainly have some Buckeye fans, but the crowd will be VERY pro Az, deep in the heart of Pac12 country. Contrasted to the Big12, the Pac12 has shown itself very well in the Big Dance and here THEIR team gets the hidden venue advantage. The more athletic team will be Az, and they will have the crowd.

A further Wild Card/Distraction is that the road trip may well be distracting to the Ohio State kids who likely have not seen 60 degrees or a bikini or certainly not a Palm Tree in 5 months.
I am NOT confident Az isn't the better team to begin with, and literally ALL the intangible are with Az. Add it all up, and Az is one fine investment here.

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Today's NBA Picks

LA Lakers at Milwaukee

The Lakers look to take advantage of a Milwaukee team that is coming off a 100-92 loss last night to Philadelphia and is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games following a SU defeat. LA is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+1). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, MARCH 28 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 801-802: LA Lakers at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 120.871; Milwaukee 117.158 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3 1/2; 204 Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1; 208 Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+1); Under

Game 803-804: Indiana at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 123.758; Dallas 125.252 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1 1/2; 199 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 803-804: Sacramento at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 116.387; Phoenix 115.183 Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 1; 216 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

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Today's NHL Picks

Los Angeles at St. Louis

The Kings look to take advantage of a St. Louis team that is coming off a 3-0 loss to Edmonton on Tuesday and is 4-9 in its last 13 games following a home loss of 3 or more goals. Los Angeles is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, MARCH 28 Time Posted 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: Winnipeg at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 10.238; Pittsburgh 13.419 Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 3; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-200); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-200); Under

Game 3-4: Carolina at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.646; Toronto 10.486 Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-145); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+125); Over

Game 5-6: NY Islanders at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 12.043; Philadelphia 10.774 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-140); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+120); Over

Game 7-8: NY Rangers at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 10.596; Ottawa 12.617 Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-115); 5 Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-115); Under

Game 9-10: Buffalo at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.761; Florida 11.030 Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-110); 5 Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-110); Over

Game 11-12: Phoenix at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 10.452; Nashville 12.343 Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-165); 5 Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-165); Under

Game 13-14: Los Angeles at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.618; St. Louis 10.991 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-135); 5 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+115); Over

Game 15-16: Columbus at Edmonton (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.965; Edmonton 12.049 Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-135); 5 Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-135); Under

Game 17-18: Colorado at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.112; Vancouver 11.916 Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-210); 5 Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-210); Under

Game 19-20: Detroit at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.893; San Jose 10.828 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-135); 5 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+115); Over