3-29-13

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J.R. Stevens SMOOTH44

MLBX TOP PICK

(933) TAMPA BAY +115

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PAUL LEINER

100* Michigan +2

50* Florida Gulf Coast +13

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB OREGON at LOUISVILLE

Play Over - Neutral court teams against the total after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% 20.2 units )

CBB FLA GULF COAST at FLORIDA

Play On - Neutral Court underdogs vs. the money line (FLA GULF COAST) after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games, with all five starters returning from last season
20-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.5% 21.3 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% 1.4 units )

CBB MICHIGAN at KANSAS

Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA WASHINGTON at ORLANDO

Play Over - Any team off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more
73-35 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.6% 34.5 units )
10-8 this year. ( 55.6% 1.2 units )

NBA BROOKLYN at DENVER

Play Against - Any team vs the money line (DENVER) revenging a loss vs opponent, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog
397-190 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.6% 114.5 units )
44-16 this year. ( 73.3% 24.9 units )

NBA TORONTO at DETROIT

Play On - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DETROIT) average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's)
81-40 since 1997. ( 66.9% 37.0 units )
7-4 this year. ( 63.6% 2.6 units )

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xpertpicks 3/29

ncaab:
Louisville -10 over Oregon
Florida Gulf Coast +13 over Florida
Michigan +2 over Kansas
Michigan State +2 over Duke

nhl:
New Jersey +110 over Tampa Bay
Chicago -155 over Anaheim

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BookieKilla's NCAA picks 3/29

Oregon/Louisville UNDER 130

Michigan St. +2

Kansas/Michigan UNDER 136.5

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Sports Pickin

NCAA Basketball:

Michigan ML
Michigan State +2.5

NHL:

Minnesota ML

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Winning Points
FRIDAY, MARCH 29


NCAA TOURNAMENT 10-STAR
South Regional Semifinals, Arlington, TX


9:55 pm
Florida over Florida Gulf Coast by 30
�Nobody picked us to beat Georgetown, or San Diego State, for sure. We�re going to prepare for Florida the same way. We�re going to try to win again.� So says Florida Gulf Coast head coach Andy Enfield, but when an underdog takes on the mindset of the favorite, and the favorite is not being engaged in a style clash, then the underdog usually becomes the Cinderella side that flames out.


FGCU is coming off back-to-back huge efforts. They scored 78 points against Georgetown, including a 21-2 run. Against San Diego State, they enjoyed a 17-0 run en route to 81 points. Three in a row like that, at this level as they move up in class to play against the team with the highest power rating in college hoops this season (based on two different power ratings sources), is highly improbable given the class rise they take tonight. They are also playing in a huge football stadium for the first time. The two earlier-round wins were at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, a normal hoops arena. Florida�s players have experience in such a setting.


Says FGCU guard Brett Comer: �They�re the well-known school, the well-known players and team. I feel like honestly deep down they might not be taking us seriously, just like other teams, because we weren�t the high recruited guys.�


He feels like that, but it�s not the case. Florida head coach Billy Donovan has seen it all and coached back-to-back National Champions very recently. The Gators have made a habit of pounding schools like FGCU in the NCAA Tournament. Last season, after Norfolk State, a #15 seed, had upset Missouri in the Second Round, Florida beat Norfolk State by 34 points, 84-50 (two days after they�d beaten Virginia by 26). Two years ago, Florida beat Cal-Santa Barbara by 28 points in their first Tournament game. Under Donovan, they have consistently drubbed NCAA Tournament opponents when playing �down in class,� so to speak. In the last three seasons, it has taken Jimmer Fredette on BYU, Butler�s championship game team, and Louisville�s Final Four team last season to knock Florida out of this thing.


FGCU just beat a pair of one-man offensive teams. For Georgetown, it was Otto Porter and then pray. For San Diego State, it was Jamal Franklin and then pray. Any underdog can take down any favorite when the favorite is a fraud with only one consistently productive scorer. But for Florida, anyone can go off from among Murphy, guards Mike Rosario and Kenny Boyton, and forward Patric Young. As mentioned in the main issue of Winning Points, the shooting range of 6�9�� Erik Murphy gives the Gators a big man that takes the big man guarding him out of the paint, opening up the floor and setting up offensive rebounds in case he misses. Murphy doesn�t miss much. Neither Georgetown nor San Diego State were set up to score points in transition off steals. Florida is (note that FGCU lost by 23 points to VCU�s �havoc defense� this season), so that�s another source of points (and scoreboard separation) for the Gators. Having allowed only 53.8 ppg this season � fewest in the Tournament and third-fewest in the nation overall � leads you to believe that with most of the week to prepare, Florida can hold FGCU�s offense in check, especially after FGCU scored about half of their points on layups and dunks against San Diego State. FLORIDA, 87-57.

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Spartan

GOY Mich +2

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Bob Balfe Comp
Kansas -1.5 over Michigan
For me this game comes down to one solid fact. Michigan is very young. This line up is made up mostly of freshman and I think the stage is too big tonight. Kansas has the best freshman in the country, but other than that they are a veteran team. Even more mind boggling is McLemore has been struggling and Kansas still has been rolling. Tonight he will matchup with other freshman classmates on the Michigan side which will fuel him to prove he is the best freshman in the country. Take Kansas

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Lang 100 dime play Michigan State +2.5

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Doc Sports
*8 Kansas -1.5 vs. Michigan 6:30P CDT

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StevieY

He released these a couple days ago, then the lines moved
Duke -1'
Florida over 134

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Winning Points-rare 10 star

Florida

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Sports Cash system

Top play:Kansas -1 over Michigan (buy half point to -1) <== On level three

Extra picks
Florida Gulf Coast +13 over Florida
Michigan State +2 over Duke
Oregon +10.5 over Louisville