4-3-13

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Today's NHL Picks

Pittsburgh at NY Rangers

The Rangers look to take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that is coming off a 4-1 loss to Buffalo last night and is 1-5 in its last 6 games following a home defeat by 3 or more goals. New York is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-110). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 3 Time Posted 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: Montreal at Philadelphia (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.176; Philadelphia 11.842 Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-130); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-130); Over

Game 3-4: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.216; NY Rangers 11.669 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-110); 5 Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-110); Under

Game 5-6: Edmonton at Calgary (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 10.577; Calgary 11.391 Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-115); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-105); Over

Game 7-8: Dallas at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.233; Anaheim 12.446 Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-175); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-175); Under

Game 9-10: Minnesota at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.888; San Jose 12.855 Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-150); 5 Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-150); Under

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CAPPERS ACCESS

Raptors

Pirates

Yankees

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1010-750 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free winner WED Tampa Rays -145

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JOE WIZ FREE PLAY

Under 9 runs Colorado and Milwaukee

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Ben Burns

10* Atlanta -3.5

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Ben Burns

10* BLUE CHIP Boston/Yankees Under 8

7* Toronto Bluejays ML

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Don Best Consensus

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers
Pick: Phoenix Suns

The Suns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

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Sam Martin

Santa Clara at George Mason
Prediction: George Mason

We came up a half-point short when we backed George Mason in the first game of this potential three-game Championship Series, as they fell by eight points at Santa Clara as a 7.5-point underdog. A closer look at the final stats of that game reveals George Mason still played pretty well, as they finished the game with a +8 rebounding edge, including +4 in offensive rebounds, and if not for turnovers (19) and some better luck with Santa Clara's shooting (41% from beyond the arc and 25-30 at the free throw line) they might have even won that game outright. We'll take George Mason once again here, this time on their home court, and we expect a slower-paced, defensive game this time around. George Mason only allows 41% shooting on the season and with the home court edge they should be able to dictate the game pace. If they can, then Santa Clara is in trouble since their road defense isn't all that great - allowing 72 ppg away from home on the season - five points more than their overall season average. Santa Clara knows they don't "have" to win this game after taking Game One of this series, and we look for the series to be tied up after tonight!


Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Toronto Raptors

We backed Washington as a premium selection against these Raptors on Sunday, with the Wizards coming through for us via a 109-92 blowout win and cover. But here in a quick revenge spot, we're going to back the Raptors. We're always a big fan of playing on teams in these quick revenge situations, and while Washington has been very good over the last few weeks on their home court, they are not the same team away from home - especially offensively. Washington will also be at a disadvantage tonight playing without rest after a hard-fought, close win (and ATS cover) against Chicago last night. Toronto has lost seven of their last eight overall, however they are a profitable 33-17 ATS when coming off back-to-back ATS losses, and despite Washington's recent home winning streak they are still just 7-29 straight up away from home this season. Toronto exacts some revenge from this past weekend's blowout loss with a big win against a fatigued Wizards squad tonight!

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Andre Gomes

NBA - 505 Brooklyn Nets @ 506 Cleveland Cavaliers

Projected Line: Brooklyn by 8 points

Brooklyn ended their road trip in the West with two back-to-back loss in Denver and Utah, so they will be trying to bounce back tonight at Cleveland. They had 3 days off between games, so they should be on a good spot to bounce back in here. On the other hand, the Cavaliers are coming from a loss in Atlanta and they will be on a tough spot tonight, as they will be playing their third game in four nights. Kyrie Irving didn't play against the Hawks because it was a back-to-back game, but he will be facing the Nets. He is still quite banged up and even though he will still be very dangerous on offense, he has been struggling on defense and Deron Williams should be able to have a good offensive game tonight.


But the main matchup edge that Brooklyn will have in here will be on frontcourt, where the Cavaliers's poor interior defense will be torched by Brook Lopez, while Cleveland's poor rebounding skills will get exposed by Reggie Evans. Brooklyn's offense is pretty much based on post ups, spot ups and isolations, three areas where Cleveland's defense is #30, #24 and #30 in the league. On the other hand, Brooklyn's main problem on defense is the fact that they are a slow footed team, but the Cavaliers's offense are just #28 in the league on transitions with a low volume of 12.3% on this kind of plays. Therefore, I expect the Nets to have a good offensive game, with Deron Williams, a returning Joe Johnson and especially Brook Lopez torching the Cavaliers's lowly defense, while a banged up Kyrie Irving won't be able to keep his team competitive in here on his own. I expect to see an easy win for the Nets tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Brooklyn Nets (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker


NBA - 507 Philadelphia 76ers @ 508 Charlotte Bobcats

Projected Line: Philadelphia by 8 points

Charlotte finally paid the price of using his starters a lot in every game on their last game at Milwaukee. The game had a pace factor close to 100 and the Bobcats's starters had no legs to compete in this contest. Still, Coach Dunlap still used Josh McRoberts for 39 minutes, Kemba Walker 35 minutes and Gerald Henderson 34 minutes! Now, with the Bobcats playing their third game in four nights plus the trip to comeback home, I really believe Charlotte will have no legs to be competitive tonight.


The Bobcats confirmed on their last game in Milwaukee how horrible their defense is, while they had no legs to be productive on offense throughout the whole game and they ended the fourth quarter with just 18 points scored. They will now face a Sixers team that had 3 days of rest prior to this game and they are still fighting for a Playoff spot.


"We're 7-4 in our last 11. ... Obviously the clock is ticking, but as long as you keep winning you keep giving yourself a chance," coach Doug Collins said. "We've settled into a nice little playing stretch here where guys are really helping each other."


Philadelphia's last game was exactly a home contest against the Bobcats last Saturday night. The Sixers were coming from a win at Cleveland the night before, on a game where their starters played big minutes. The relax spot for Philadelphia on their game against Charlotte was evident and this is why they got outscored by 22-31 in the first quarter of the game, just to outscore Charlotte by 78-61 in the remainder of the game. Charlotte's offense was excellent in what they're generally good: 9-15 FG + 1.05 PPP in pick and roll ball handler plays and 6-10 FG + 1.17 PPP on transitions. On the other hand, Philadelphia's offense was good in literally everything.


Now, with Philadelphia having a huge spot edge for tonight's contest and with them being more alert at the start of the game than they were last Saturday, I expect the Sixers to pick up an easy win in here. Their improved offense and decent defense should be more than enough to beat the lowly Bobcats on a poor physical spot for them. Therefore, I'll be taking Philadelphia in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Philadelphia 76ers (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB SANTA CLARA at GEORGE MASON

Play Against - An underdog (SANTA CLARA) a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), on Wednesday games
193-120 since 1997. ( 61.7% 61.0 units )
12-13 this year. ( 48.0% -2.3 units )

CBB SANTA CLARA at GEORGE MASON

Play On - A road team vs. the money line (SANTA CLARA) in a game involving two average shooting teams (42.5-45%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-17.5 TO's)
357-487 since 1997. ( 42.3% 3.5 units )
28-59 this year. ( 32.2% -29.1 units )

CBB SANTA CLARA at GEORGE MASON

Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 revenging a same season loss vs opponent.
314-216 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.2% 76.4 units )
15-16 this year. ( 48.4% -2.6 units )

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA DENVER at UTAH

Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team
78-38 since 1997. ( 67.2% 36.2 units )
5-4 this year. ( 55.6% 0.6 units )

NBA DENVER at UTAH

Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (UTAH) after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, vs. division opponents
88-22 over the last 5 seasons. ( 80.0% 44.1 units )
14-9 this year. ( 60.9% -2.0 units )

NBA ORLANDO at SAN ANTONIO

Play Against - Road underdogs of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (ORLANDO) revenging a home loss vs opponent, off 2 covers where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 2.0 units )

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB SEATTLE at OAKLAND

Play On - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (OAKLAND) first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 26+ wins in last 40 games, team that had a winning record last season
37-12 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.5% 22.8 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% -1.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB SEATTLE at OAKLAND

OAKLAND is 48-22 (+26.9 Units) against the money line in Home games at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.3)

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PAUL LEINER

100* Over 7 - Nationals/Marlins

50* Athletics -145

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handicapping kings

jimmy

baseball
kansas city/chicago - under 7.5 -110 (2pm)
toronto -176 cleveland (7pm)
oakland -139 seattle (10pm)

nhl
edmonton/calgary - over 5.5 +105 (10pm)

nba
phoenix/la clippers - under 198.5 (1035pm)

perry (soccer plays)

borussia dortmund/malaga - over 2.5 -104 (245pm)

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5Lines

Total Line for 04/03/2013

(Lost last 2 games) Today's Winning Team is: MLB - Cincinnati Reds : u7 Cost: -115

Run Line for 04/03/2013

(Lost last 3 games) Today's Winning Team is: MLB - Houston Astros : +1.5 Cost: +105