4-4-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Toronto Maple Leafs -132 over Philadelphia Flyers
(System Record: 40-3, lost last game)
Overall Record: 40-30-1

Basketball Crusher
Baylor +1 over Iowa
(System Record: 82-4, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 82-62-4

Baseball Crusher
San Diego Padres +127 over NY Mets
(System Record: 5-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 5-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE WIZ FREE PLAY

Under 9 runs Cleveland and Toronto

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks

Columbus at Nashville

The Blue Jackets look to take advantage of a Nashville team that is coming off a 3-1 win over Colorado and is 3-8 in its last 11 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. Columbus is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jackets favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+140). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, APRIL 4 Time Posted 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Tampa Bay at Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.814; Carolina 10.304 Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-130); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+110); Under

Game 53-54: New Jersey at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.184; Boston 10.922 Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-190); 5 Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+165); Over

Game 55-56: NY Islanders at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 12.028; Washington 11.785 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-140); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+120); Over

Game 57-58: Philadelphia at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.857; Toronto 13.083 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-140); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-140); Under

Game 59-60: Winnipeg at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 9.480; Montreal 12.160 Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 2 1/2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-170); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-170); Under

Game 61-62: Columbus at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.177; Nashville 10.956 Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-160); 5 Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+140); Over

Game 63-64: St. Louis at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.502; Chicago 12.597 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-150); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-150); Under

Game 65-66: Detroit at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.826; Phoenix 11.165 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-120); 5 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100); Over

Game 67-68: Edmonton at Vancouver (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.549; Vancouver 12.105 Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-180); 5 Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-180); Over

Game 69-70: Minnesota at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.829; Los Angeles 11.982 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-180); 5 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-180); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Thursday, April 4

NBA doubleheader on TNT: What bettors need to know

Chicago Bulls vs. Brooklyn Nets

If the Chicago Bulls have any hope of moving up to the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference, they have to come away with a victory in Thursday's visit to the Brooklyn Nets. The Bulls trail fourth-place Brooklyn by 2 1/2 games but they have not played well since snapping the Miami Heat's 27-game winning streak. Chicago, which is coming off a four-point defeat at Washington, has won two of three against the Nets.

Brooklyn closed out an eight-game road trip in style, obliterating the Cleveland Cavaliers 113-95 on Wednesday night. The Nets barely broke a sweat, hitting 15-of-18 shots in the second quarter to build a 30-point halftime lead, which allowed coach P.J. Carlesimo to rest his starters late. Marshon Brooks hit his first 10 shots and combined with backcourt mate Deron Williams to score 51 points on 20-of-30 shooting.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT, TSN2

ABOUT THE BULLS (40-33): While Chicago continues to hope for the season debut of recuperating star point guard Derrick Rose, the injuries continue to mount. Top reserve forward Taj Gibson aggravated a knee injury in Tuesday's loss at Washington and is expected to join center Joakim Noah (foot) and guards Marco Belinelli (abdomen) and Richard Hamilton (back) on the sidelines. Carlos Boozer continues to do the heavy lifting on the depleted forward line, registering six double-doubles in his last seven games.

ABOUT THE NETS (43-31): Brooklyn improved to 29-17 since P.J. Carlesimo replaced Avery Johnson. One of Carlesimo's first moves was to shift bruising forward Reggie Evans into the starting lineup. Evans had another monster night on the boards Wednesday, pulling down 18 rebounds in only 27 minutes. Evans has grabbed at least 10 rebounds in 11 consecutive games and 15 of his last 16. He has four games with at least 22 boards during that span and is averaging 19 in his last four games.

TRENDS

*Over is 10-1 in Brooklyn's last 11.
*Chicago is 5-12 ATS in last 17 road meetings against Nets.
*Over is 4-1 in Chicago's last five.
*Bulls are 4-2 ATS this season without Joakim Noah.
*Over is 6-3 this season when Joe Johnson has been out of the lineup.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Nets G Joe Johnson (quadriceps) is expected to return to the lineup after missing five games.

2. The Bulls are 29-14 against the Eastern Conference.

3. The Nets set a franchise record with their 21st road win.



San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder are set up well to narrow their deficit in the competition for the top spot in the Western Conference playoff race. San Antonio has a 1 1/2-game lead as it arrives in Oklahoma City for Thursday’s contest but the Spurs played Wednesday while the Thunder have been off since Saturday. San Antonio also is beat up with guard Manu Ginobili sidelined, and forwards Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard and point guard Tony Parker all battling ailments.

The Thunder won four of five games before the lengthy rest that was certainly well-timed. Oklahoma City is 32-5 at home and would love to wrestle homecourt advantage away from the Spurs. “We want to get the best seed possible,” coach Scott Brooks told reporters. “We’re not going to shy away from that. But once you get in the playoffs, anything can happen. Just because you have the 1 or the 2 seed, that doesn’t necessarily mean you’re going to advance.” The Spurs downed the Orlando Magic on Wednesday to avoid their first three-game skid of the season. San Antonio is 2-1 against the Thunder this season, with the loss coming in a mid-December visit to Oklahoma City.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE SPURS (56-19): Spurs coach Gregg Popovich saw the contest against Orlando as a good chance to rest Parker due to the looming clash against Oklahoma City star Russell Westbrook. Parker had played in seven straight games since returning from an ankle injury that forced him to miss eight contests. Duncan (knee) returned to action after a one-game absence but played less than 14 minutes. The status of Leonard (knee) is unclear after he missed his second consecutive contest and swingman Stephen Jackson won’t travel to Oklahoma City after hurting his right ankle against the Magic. Center DeJuan Blair hopes to return after missing the Orlando game with a stomach virus. Ginobili (hamstring) won’t play again in the regular season.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (54-20): Forward Serge Ibaka was a huge difference-maker in Saturday’s victory over the Milwaukee Bucks. Ibaka blocked a season-high eight shots and also scored 16 points on 7-of-8 shooting. “Serge Ibaka did a phenomenal job protecting the basket and blocking and altering their shots,” Brooks said afterward. Ibaka has played well against San Antonio this season, averaging 14 points, 14 rebounds and 2.7 rejections. Forward Kevin Durant is averaging 22.7 points and 8.7 rebounds against the Spurs and Westbrook is averaging 21.7 points and 6.7 assists but shooting just 34.8 percent in the three games. Westbrook had 23 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists against the Bucks for his first triple-double of the campaign.

TRENDS

*The home team has won eight of the past 10 meetings SU in this series. The home team is 6-3-1 ATS over the same stretch.
*Last three games in series have gone under, with each total being more than 204.
*The under is 9-4-1 when Manu Ginobili is out of the Spurs' lineup.
*Oklahoma City is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
*The under is 5-0 in the Spurs last five road games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The Spurs knocked off the Thunder on March 11 behind 21 points and 10 rebounds from C Tiago Splitter.

2. Durant is 28-of-29 from the free-throw line over the past three games.

3. Spurs G Danny Green had 20 points in the win over Orlando after averaging just seven over the previous three contests.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baylor and Iowa: Square off for NIT Title on Thursday

National Invitation Tournament - Championship Game
Madison Square Garden - New York, NY
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Even, Total: 141

The NIT concludes Thursday night at Madison Square Garden when Iowa and Baylor clash in what should be a very entertaining basketball game.

The Hawkeyes are 10-0 ATS (8-2 SU) in their past 10 games, and have beaten all four NIT opponents by double-figures. Despite shooting a paltry 42.1% FG, they were still able to put away Maryland 71-60 in Tuesday's semifinal win. The Bears have been winning in this tournament with an explosive offense that has scored 89.0 PPG on 52.1% FG, but they made just 43% of their shots in Tuesday's 76-70 win over BYU. Iowa is 4-2 SU (5-1 ATS) on a neutral court this season, while Baylor is 3-2 (SU and ATS) on a neutral court.

Iowa is not a strong offensive team, averaging just 70.4 PPG (100th in nation) on 42.2% FG (230th in D-I) and 30.9% threes. But this team never takes a possession off defensively, holding teams to 62.5 PPG on 38.9% FG (18th in nation) and 29.5% threes (15th in D-I). This is also a very intelligent team, sporting a 1.21 Ast/TO, while posting 4.9 blocks per game and a +4.8 RPG margin. This is a very deep squad, with 10 players logging more than 11 MPG during the NIT. Junior swingman Roy Devyn Marble (15.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.0 APG) has been phenomenal in this tournament, scoring at least 21 points in all four NIT games, averaging 24.3 PPG on 49.2% FG and 26-of-32 FT (81%). Marble has also dished out 19 assists with just seven turnovers in the four victories. Sophomore PF Aaron White (12.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG) has also had a strong NIT with 10.0 PPG and 8.3 RPG in the four wins. He's shot poorly from the floor though, making just 9-of-27 shots and 1-of-9 threes, while committing a team-high 10 turnovers. Junior SF Zach McCabe (5.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG) has 8.3 PPG on 50% FG and 7-of-12 threes in the NIT, while senior swingman Eric May (5.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG) has 7.3 PPG on 5-of-7 threes during the NIT, racking up five steals and dishing out 11 assists with zero turnovers.

Baylor shoots a high percentage (45.0% FG) thanks to an unselfish offense averaging 15.0 APG (33rd in D-I). However, the Bears aren't a great three-point shooting team (35.5%), and they really struggle from the foul line, making just 68.9% FT. Baylor is not a particularly strong defensive team either, giving up 66.7 PPG and producing just 6.5 steals per game. Senior PG Pierre Jackson (19.9 PPG) is one of the most dynamic college players in the country with 7.0 APG, a 2.06 Ast/TO ratio and a strong 1.5 SPG. He also shoots 80% from the foul line despite playing so many minutes for this team (34.7 MPG). After receiving just 20 minutes of action in the blowout of Long Beach State, Jackson has been remarkable in the past three games, averaging 23.3 PPG (33-of-38 FT), 13.0 APG, 5.0 RPG and 2.0 SPG. He also has 39 assists and just 10 turnovers in the past three contests. Junior PF Cory Jefferson (13.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG) has sizzled in the NIT, scoring 20.8 PPG on 72% FG with 5.8 RPG. Despite picking up four fouls, Jefferson still scored 21 points on 8-of-11 FG in Tuesday's win over BYU. Freshman C Isaiah Austin (13.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG) started off the NIT with identical games of 13 points and six rebounds, but after a mere five points on 1-of-7 shooting in the quarterfinals, he cranked out 14 points and 10 boards in Tuesday's semifinal win. SG Brady Heslip (8.7 PPG) started the tourney with 16.0 PPG (56% threes), but he failed to score at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday, going 0-for-5 from the floor and 0-for-4 from behind the arc. However, SG A.J. Walton (7.1 PPG, 3.5 APG) ended his scoring slump over the first three NIT games (3.0 PPG on 4-of-13 FG) to produce 10 points on 4-of-8 FG in Tuesday's win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE ESSLER

Cliff Notes -Day Baseball

Cubs at Pirates: Wood is always a dicey proposition. He finished last season with a WHIP of only 1.25 but gave up a ton of jacks. Super-tough on lefties. Pitched well as a whole against the Pirates, save Neil Walker. McDonald had his best year, and although his WHIP was down (far less hits/no less walks) he too gives up the long ball. With the chilly temperature and slight breeze in from RF, looks like yet another under is possible here. Not sure McDonald is worth -150 here, so IMO the value lies with Wood and the Cubs.

Padres-Mets: At first glance we like the Mets, if nothing else as a fade of Stults rather than a play on Dillon Gee. Both these starters have had a hard time keeping the ball in the park as well, which is only magnified by the fact that they both play in pitchers' parks. Limited exposure to either teams' lineup, which would also make me lean under. The Mets had been almost an auto fade against lefties last season, and I don't think the Padres pen is quite as bad as the Mets made them look in game one, so I could see taking the Padres here. Gee's Spring wasn't all that great. I might have considered taking the over here, but in these day games often times starters rest (after night games) so we do need to see the lineups first.

Philadelphia at Atlanta: We love Medlen and his post Tommy-John surgery numbers. The kid went from the pen to starting last year, and had a beastly 0.97 WHIP in 12 starts. He does keep the ball in the park, but I did notice that in limited at bats some of the Phillies had had success. With that in mind, I may make a case for Cliff Lee here. His six wins last year perhaps diminish his value early on, coupled with the lower expectations placed on the Phillies. There's little or no doubt who has the better bullpen. There is supposed to be a significant weather front coming through the area on Thursday, but I do think it'll be through by tomorrow night. However, it should be damp and windy in from RF, so in a pitchers' park we've got to think Braves and under.

Detroit at Minnesota: I've always looked to fade an almost always over valued Porcello. This game for sure we need lineups. Not likely Mauer will catch, and perhaps a switch with he and Doumit at DH. I can certainly see taking the Twins here since they have the momentum from Wednesday's comeback and the Tigers pen three relievers, including Villareal and Benoit (again). Of course that would mean taking the Twins pen again, who costs us Monday, but the hard bets to make are more often than not the ones we win. That total is on the high side of 8.5 after opening on the low side, probably in part because the wind may well be blowing straight out. That and the fact that most of the Tigers have lit up Pelfrey.

Kansas City at Chicago: Lost on the Royals today. Sure enough Santana did the one thing he can do, which is give up bombs. The Royals had their chances and have to feel pretty good about a loss, actually. Guthrie may be under valued early since he had a decent year with the Royals until he had to pitch a few months in Coors Field. Floyd was actually better on the road last season, and is much tougher on right handed hitters, so given all the LHH's in the Royals lineup and the fact that at -125 they're begging for White Sox money, I will take the Royals.

Baltimore at Tampa Bay: Even as well as the Orioles are hitting, day games at the Trop are almost automatic under bets, or have been over the years. But, this is still Fausto Carmona no matter how you slice it. Upside is he's fare well against the Orioles over the years. Have to think if Showalter named him the number three starter that he's got the confidence that he can duplicate last season. After Monday's Rays bullpen meltdown, and knowing Carmona won't last forever, I could see taking the Orioles here, especially at plus money.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLBPredictions
Kevin

2 UNIT = Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays - ORIOLES TO WIN (+117)
Listed Pitchers: Gonzalez vs Hernandez
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.34 units)

**Take note this is an afternoon game**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

5Lines

Total Line for 04/04/2013

(Lost last 3 games) Today's Winning Team is: NBA - Denver Nuggets : u208 Cost: -110

Run Line for 04/04/2013

(Lost last 4 games) Today's Winning Team is: NBA - Oklahoma City Thunder : -8 Cost: -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee won on Wednesday with the A's -$142/Mariners.

For Thursday "Mr Chalk" once again likes the A's -$150/Mariners.

"Mr Chalk" is 3-1 + $195 for the 2013 MLB Season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BVB-MLB Inc.


Cubs +130
Min +125

SD +127
Phly +125
Col +120
Sea +140
Clev + 143


Season Total 6-7 +$135 ($100 wager per game)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo stayed in the flow with the Metamucils last night for a fifth straight win, but he was betrayed by the Brewers, whose loss left him with only 100 kaats in the kitty.

Today, Mr. Aitch will take a stab with Stults over Gee in the big Citi — 10 units on the Pods. Tonight, he will join forces with the Medlen cartel in Atlanta — 10 units on the Braves.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB IOWA at BAYLOR

Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total after 3 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%)
190-114 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.5% 64.6 units )
32-19 this year. ( 62.7% 11.1 units )

CBB IOWA at BAYLOR

Play Against - Any team (IOWA) excellent defensive team (<=40%) against a good defensive team (40-42.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 15+ games
453-572 since 1997. ( 44.2% 9.9 units )
78-117 this year. ( 40.0% -26.2 units )

CBB IOWA at BAYLOR

Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season, after scoring 75 points or more 3 straight games
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
5-5 this year. ( 50.0% -0.5 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB SEATTLE at OAKLAND

Play Against - Any team (SEATTLE) good fielding team from last season - averaged <=0.6 errors/game, after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base
30-12 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.4% 20.1 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB BALTIMORE at TAMPA BAY

BALTIMORE is 43-34 (+27.2 Units) against the money line in Road games as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (3.9) , OPPONENT (4.0)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

handicapping kings

jimmy

baseball

(kings ransom- 2 units) oakland -148 seattle (335pm)

chicago/pittsburgh under 7.5 -120 (1230pm)

nhl

detroit +100 phoenix (10pm)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA DALLAS at DENVER

Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making >=50% of their shots
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% 32.9 units )
4-3 this year. ( 57.1% 0.7 units )

NBA DALLAS at DENVER

Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games
68-28 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.8% 32.6 units )
9-5 this year. ( 64.3% 2.1 units )

NBA SAN ANTONIO at OKLAHOMA CITY

Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105.5 well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team
85-43 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.4% 37.7 units )
13-8 this year. ( 61.9% 4.2 units )