4-15-13

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Bank Shots: NBA Betting News & Notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of April 7-13.

HOTTEST ATS

Detroit Pistons (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)

The Pistons have been out of playoff contention for virtually the whole season, but have been playing some good ball down the stretch. Detroit has covered in six of its last seven games (6-0-1 against the spread) and has two games remaining. The Pistons host the Sixers Monday before visiting Brooklyn for their season finale.

COLDEST ATS

Portland Trail Blazers (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS)

The Blazers have lost 10 consecutive games and have only covered once (1-9 ATS) during the losing skid. Portland’s nightmarish season isn’t over yet as it still has three tough games against the Nuggets, Clippers and Warriors.

BEST OVER PLAY

Boston Celtics (2-2 SU, 4-0 OVER/under)

Boston clinched the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference with a 120-88 win over Orlando Saturday. The Celtics have played over in four consecutive games, averaging 105.2 points during the run. Boston hosts Indiana Tuesday and has a short turnaround before finishing in Toronto Wednesday night.

BEST UNDER PLAY

Memphis Grizzlies (3-1 SU, 0-4 over/UNDER)

The Grizzlies are in a dogfight for home advantage in the Western Conference and are already playing playoff-like defense. Memphis has gone low in eight straight games and hasn’t allowed an opponent to score more than 100 points in nine consecutive games. The Griz are in Dallas Monday before hosting Utah Wednesday.

All stats prior to action Sunday.

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Pucking The Trends: This Week's Best NHL Bets

Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

For the week of April 7-13

HOT TEAM

Washington Capitals (4-0 SU)

The Capitals have reeled off seven consecutive wins to rise to the top of the Southeast Division standings. Washington plays four of its final six games at home and five of those contests are against Northeast foes. The Capitals are a combined 2-5 against the Bruins, Maple Leafs, Senators and Canadiens this season.

COLD TEAM

Edmonton Oilers (0-3 SU)

The young Oilers have dropped five straight to drop out of playoff contention in the Western Conference. Edmonton has been outscored 17-4 during the slide and F Ales Hemsky will be on the shelf for about a week due to a nagging foot injury. The Oilers host the Wild Tuesday before jetting to Colorado for a date with the Avs.

BEST OVER PLAY

Toronto Maple Leafs (2-0-1 SU, 2-0-1 OVER/under)

The Maple Leafs have earned points in 10 of their last 11 games and are coming off a 5-1 rout of the Canadiens on Saturday night. Toronto has been a solid over play with a 20-16-5 O/U mark to date and boasts the fourth-ranked offense (3.1 goals per game) in the NHL. The Leafs host New Jersey Monday before a road date in Washington Tuesday.

BEST UNDER PLAY

Ottawa Senators (2-2 SU, 0-4 over/UNDER)

The Senators were an awesome under play early in the season thanks to a hot start from G Craig Anderson. The veteran netminder was absent for 20 games in the middle season due to injury but is back between the pipes for Ottawa. The Senators have gone low in four consecutive games and are 3-0 O/U in Anderson’s three starts since returning from injury. Ottawa has a tough game in Boston Monday to wrap up a seven-game road trip.

Surveying the schedule:

-The Columbus Blue Jackets are battling for a playoff spot in the West and play five of their final six games on the road. The Jackets are 6-11-2 away from home this season.

-The Dallas Stars have won five straight but wins could be tough to come by down the stretch. Six of the Stars’ final seven opponents are currently above .500 and in the playoff mix.

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DAVE ESSLER

Cliff Notes - Monday Baseball

St. Louis at Pittsburgh: Pirates have been home while the Cardinals have been fighting the Brewers. Have to wonder if there isn't some sort of mental letdown for St. Louis. McDonald has certainly been someone we could get behind in the past. Freese and Beltran rested Sunday. McDonald owned the Cubs and was owned by the D-Backs (in Arizona). Truth is somewhere in the middle. But, he's pitched well against most all the Cardinals, save Molina, whose due a day off. He's caught about 6-8 straight games. Lynn also crushed by the D-Backs and was lights-out against the Reds, and at a time when the Reds were hitting. Given the struggles of the Cardinals bullpen, and the non-struggles of the Pirates relievers, you certainly have to lean Pittsburgh, I would think. As I type the Reds are out early, so we'll wait and see what happens like we always do.

Philadelphia at Cincinnati: I suppose if I'd been paying attention I'd have faded the Phillies in their last game against the Fish, strictly because of THIS game. Well, maybe. That games' just started, but it would have been a reason to think about it. A little hard to fathom the Reds being home dogs to many people, especially the perceived light hitting Phillies. For that reason (sounds like Shark Tank) I would have to think seriously about taking Philadelphia. Reds coming home from Pittsburgh would be yet another reason. Arroyo hasn't been walking many, but he's been very hittable. He's always been much tougher on RHH, and last I check Howard, Utley, and at least Brown hit from the left side of the plate. Votto's about the only Red that's had REAL success against Lee, so I do in fact lean Phillies and probably under here, although I have not checked weather and Sunday's impacts aren't known yet.

Washington at Miami: Similar situation here in that the Nationals have a big division series against Atlanta, and don't fare well in, I might have to think there's some emotional discomfort in their clubhouse. We'll see. Simply not laying -185 on the road, and could consider the RL either way. One of these days Miami will score, but still have only scored more than three runs once in there eleven games, Sunday pending. LeBlanc has actually pitched fairly well, and these two teams already faced each other in the season opening series. If LeBlanc is the one to make adjustments, who knows. These two pitchers faced each other in that series as well, in a game won by the Nats (duh) 6-1. He's been nothing short of consistent, but in what is probably a low scoring game (again) I could make the case fairly easily for the Fish RL.

Mets at Rockies: Colorado in a first game back after being in San Diego (nice weather) and it's supposed to be chilly, rainy, and wind blowing in hard in Colorado on Monday. Clearly the Mets should think this is summer after being in Minnesota on Sunday, and having a game "wintered out". Hence, they are also rested. Gee pitched well against the Padres but was simply hammered in Philadelphia his last start. Rockies really haven't seen enough of him to say one way or the other. Nicasio's first home start, and he's either walked the park or been hit when he does throw strikes in his first two games at Milwaukee and the Giants. The Mets have never seen Nicasio at all, so even though it's a tough spot for the Rockies, perhaps a first five inning bet. Doubt they're worth -135 against a rested team, and can't quite see 10.5 runs happening, given the weather.

San Diego at Dodgers: Los Angeles only averaging a little over three runs a game, and since the first homestand their bullpen has been simply awful. Only Billingsley's second start, and the first one was also against these Padres, a team that's done very little against him over the years. It is the Dodgers flying back from Arizona and playing the next night, which is always at least a yellow flag. Stults was lit up by the Dodgers in Petco last week, and inasmuch as I like to find a way to take the Padres, I probably can't. I suppose it's possible that we could consider the RL at -135, which I suspect might be more expensive later. Hard to say, but certainly not enough value at +115 for me to take the Dodgers RL either. If anything, I might wait til the total hits 7.5, if it does, and take the obligatory under in Dodger Stadium at night.

Tampa Bay at Boston: I won't touch this game, being played right before the Boston Marathon ends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rounding the Bases: The Best Bets in the Bigs

Every week we take a look at the hottest and coldest teams as well as the best over and under bets in major league baseball.

For the week of April 8-14

HOT Team: Atlanta Braves
Last week: 6-0
Season: 11-1
Upcoming schedule: vs. Royals, at Pirates

Skinny: The Braves swept the Marlins and Nationals this past week to extend their winning streak to nine game games.

COLD Team: Minnesota Twins
Last week: 0-5
Season: 4-7
Upcoming schedule: vs. Angels at White Sox

Skinny: The Twins have dropped five consecutive games and have been outscored 33-12 during the skid.

OVER Team: Detroit Tigers
Last week: 5-1 OVER/under
Season: 8-3-1 OVER/under
Upcoming schedule: at Mariners, at Angels

Skinny: The Tigers piled on 44 runs in six games (7.3 runs per game) this past week, much to the delight of their over bettors.

UNDER Team: Texas Rangers
Last week: 0-5-2 over/UNDER
Season: 3-8-2 over/UNDER
Upcoming schedule: at Cubs, vs. Mariners

Skinny: The Rangers’ lineup doesn’t have the same potency as it did last season with Josh Hamilton in the middle of the order and their pitching staff held opponents to 18 runs (2.5 runs per game) in seven contests this past week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hotlanta Braves on 9-0 Streak for Bettors

No pennant was ever won in April, but Atlanta is setting the early pace in the National League.

The Braves have won nine in a row and are the hottest team in baseball after finishing the weekend sweep of the Nationals in Washington Sunday.

Any bettor that placed $100 on each of the Braves' nine games would be up $772.26.

Atlanta is +600 to win the National League and +1200 to win the World Series at online sportsbook CarbonSports.

Atlanta has been winning with pitching during the streak. The Braves have outscored the opposition 46-14, and have yielded more than four earned runs only once. Every starter has gone at least five innings in each game, with the bullpen eating just 22 2/3 innings in the nine ballgames combined.

The Braves are off Monday and return to the diamond Tuesday, when they open a two-game set with the Kansas City Royals. Kris Medlen (1-1, 1.50 ERA) is scheduled to take the hill for Atlanta and will take on Jeremy Guthrie (2-0, 3.55 ERA).

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MLB Weather Report: Snow in Colorado

Snow is expected at Coors Field in Colorado on Monday.

Here's the rest of the notable weather in our MLB weather report:

(All totals provided by Nevada-based oddsmaking service The Sports Club)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox (+123, -133, 8.5)
Site: Fenway Park

Winds will blow out to left field at 10 mph. Temperatures are expected to be in the low-50s.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins (-113, +104, 8.5)
Site: Target Field

Winds will blow out to center field at 13 mph with expected temperatures in the mid-30s.

New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies (+120, -130, 10.5)
Site: Coors Field

Snow is in the forecast in Denver with temperatures in the mid-30s. Winds will blow in from center field at 11 mph. The Rockies were 3-10 in 2012 when the wind blew in from center.

Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics (+156, -170, 7.5)
Site: O.co Coliseum

Winds will blow from left to right at 14 mph. The Athletics and the over were 4-1 in 2012 at O.co Coliseum when the wind blew from left to right.

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NHL Betting Five Goalies for Bettors to Watch Down the Stretch

NHL backup goalies or late-season pickups may see more time between the sticks as the playoffs become faded from view.

Here's a look a five netminders on unlikely playoff-bound teams and what bettors should know about them down the stretch.

(All stats are prior to Sunday's action)

Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning (2-3 SU, 3.21 GAA, .916 SV%, 3-2 O/U with Lightning)

The Lightning acquired Bishop from Ottawa at the trade deadline to improve their 27th-ranked goals-against average. After a shutout in his first appearance for the Bolts, Bishop has crashed, posting an .890 save percentage in his five starts since. The over has gone 4-2 in his six appearances for Tampa Bay.

Steve Mason, Philadelphia Flyers (0-2 SU, 1.74 GAA, .934 SV%, 0-2 O/U with Flyers)

Mason may get a run in the pipes for the Flyers with Ilya Bryzgalov wearing out his welcome in Philadelphia for poor play and allegedly falling asleep during a meeting, according to the 97.5 The Fanatic. The former Calder Trophy winner has gone 0-3 since being traded from Columbus, but the under is 3-0 due to Philly's poor scoring. Mason has gotten only two goals of support in his three games in Flyer orange.

Justin Peters, Carolina Hurricanes (4-8 SU, 2.93 GAA, .905 SV%, 7-6-2 O/U)

Carolina has gone from playoff contender to also-ran after losing 14 of its last 16 games. Cam Ward's six-to-eight week knee injury has hit the Hurricanes hard. Peters has started 12 of Carolina's 20 games since the injury. The Hurricanes have gone 2-9 in his last 11 appearances and he's posted a lackluster .868 save percentage.

Chris Mason, Nashville Predators (1-5-1, 3.80 GA, .848 SV%, 7-2 O/U)

With Nashville seven points out of the playoffs with only six games left going into Sunday, time is running out for the Predators. Starter Pekka Rinne has played 35 of the team's 42 games, and Nashville's No. 2 Mason has been terrible this season. Mason hasn't won a game since his first start of the season on January 22, and the over is 7-2 in his nine starts this season. In his last seven appearances, Mason's save percentage is .771.

Joey MacDonald, Calgary Flames (7-6-1 SU, 2.83 GAA, .903 SV%, 9-7-1 O/U)

MacDonald could see some action for the Flames down the stretch with starter Miikka Kiprusoff leaning towards retiring after the season. The under is 3-1-1 in MacDonald's last five games. Other than giving up eight against Edmonton on April 3, MacDonald allowed eight goals in the other four appearances in the 3-1-1 stretch.

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NHL UNDERS Continue to Cash for Bettors

NHL teams are gearing up for tight, conservative playoff hockey, even with the Stanley Cup playoffs more than two weeks away.

This is leading to the totals falling and unders cashing for bettors.

In the 99 games in April prior to Sunday, the UNDER is 53-32-14.

Oddsmakers are adjusting since the under went 33-16-4 from April 4-10. Eleven of the 19 games from Friday-Sunday had totals of five, which included four pushes.

One of the reasons the under has been hot is because power plays have gone cold. Heading into Sunday's action, there were 88 goals scored on 536 total power plays in April, which translates to a 16.4 percent power-play conversion rate. This is below the current NHL power play average of 18 percent.

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Handicapping Kings

Jimmy

Baseball

la/minnesota Over 8.5 -110 (8pm)

sd/la Under 7 +105 (10pm)

NBA

chicago/orlando Under 192.5 (7pm)

NHL

dallas/chicago Over 5.5 +110 (8pm)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Knicks (-4) Sunday.

Monday it’s the Red Sox. The deficit is 281 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Lee is 2-0, 1.62 in two starts this season.
-- Zimmerman is 2-0, 2.07 in two starts this season.
-- Dodgers won last eight Billingsley starts (7-0, 1.76).

-- Correia is 1-1, 2.57 in his last three starts.
-- Milone is 2-0, 4.50 in his first two starts.

Cold pitchers
-- McDonald is 1-1, 3.75 in two starts this season. Lynn is 1-0, 4.50 in his two starts.
-- Arroyo is 1-1, 5.25 in two starts this season.
-- Leblanc is 0-2, 4.09 in two starts this season.
-- Nicasio has a 4.91 RA in his first two starts this season. Gee is 2-6, 4.81 in his last eight starts.
-- Stults is 1-1, 3.60 in two starts this season (10 IP).

-- Hellickson is 0-1, 6.35 in his first two starts this season. Dempster is 0-1, 5.40 in his first two Boston starts.
-- Floyd is 0-2, 6.35 in two starts this season. Buehrle is 0-0, 11.17 in his first two starts for Toronto.
-- Blanton is 0-2, 9.90 in two starts this season.
-- Bedard is 1-2, 7.85 in his last four starts.

Totals
-- Four of last five Pittsburgh games went over the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Washington games went over the total.
-- Eight of eleven Met games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in last ten San Diego games.

-- Seven of last eight Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Toronto games went over the total.
-- Six of Angels' last eight games went over the total.
-- Eleven of last twelve Oakland games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Cardinals won six of their last eight games. Pirates won five of their last six games.
-- Phillies won four of their last five games.
-- Mets won five of their last seven games. Colorado won eight of its last 11.
-- Dodgers won six of their last nine games.

-- Red Sox won four of their last six games.
-- Oakland won nine of its last eleven games, but is 0-2 since Cespedes went on the DL.

Cold teams
-- Reds lost last four games by combined score of 34-14.
-- Nationals lost last three games, scoring five runs. Miami lost ten of its first twelve games.
-- Padres lost ten of their first twelve games.

-- Rays lost five of their last six games.
-- White Sox lost five of their last six games.
-- Minnesota lost last five games, outscored 33-12. Angels lost eight of their last eleven games, but won last two.
-- Astros lost eight of their last eleven games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Maple Leafs won six of their last eight games.
-- Ottawa won last two games, after losing previous five.
-- Canadiens won six of their last nine games.
-- Canucks won four of their last five games.
-- Chicago won last five games, allowing five goals. Dallas Stars also won its last five in a row, scoring 20 goals.
-- Flames won three of their last four games.
-- Blue Jackets won six of their last eight games.
-- Coyotes won last three home games, outscoring foes 11-3.

Cold teams
-- Devils lost their last nine games, outscored 19-10.
-- Bruins lost three of their last five games.
-- Flyers lost last four games, outscored 12-3.
-- Predators lost last six games, outscored 18-6.
-- Minnesota lost six of its last seven games.
-- Avalanche lost ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Sharks lost three of their last four games.

Totals
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six New Jersey games.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Boston home games.
-- Last seven Montreal home games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Nashville games.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Chicago games.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Calgary games.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Colorado games.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Phoenix games.

Series records
-- Devils lost their last three games with Toronto.
-- Bruins won 13 of last 14 games with Ottawa.
-- Flyers won seven of last nine games with Montreal.
-- Canucks are 9-4 in their last thirteen games with Nashville.
-- Blackhawks won last three games vs Dallas, allowing four goals.
-- Flames lost three of last four games with Minnesota.
-- Blue Jackets won three of last four games with Colorado.
-- Coyotes are 5-3 in their last eight games with San Jose.

Back-to-backs
-- Nashville is 3-2 at home if it played night before.
-- Blackhawks are 9-0 if they played the night before

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Miami won its last six games (5-1 vs spread).
-- Knicks won 15 of their last 16 games (8-1 vs spread last nine A).
-- Nets won four of their last five games (3-5 last eight HF).
-- Detroit won its last three games, covered its last seven. 76ers won last two games, by 11-14 points (7-6 last 13 AU).
-- Grizzlies won seven of their last nine games (2-4 last six AF). Dallas won four of last five games, covered five of last six.
-- Jazz won eight of their last ten games, covered last five on road.
-- Thunder won six of their last seven games (9-3 last 12 HF).
-- Nuggets won six of their last seven games (10-4 last 14 HF).
-- Rockets won six of their last eight games (6-9 vs spread last 15).

Cold Teams
-- Orlando lost six of last seven games (5-9 vs spread last 14 H). Bulls lost four of their last five games.
-- Cavaliers lost last four games (1-3 v spread).
-- Bobcats lost seven of last nine games (6-2 vs spread last eight A).
-- Washington lost last four games, covered twice in last ten.
-- Minnesota lost three of its last four games overall, but won three of its last four at home.
-- Kings lost six of their last seven games (6-3 last nine AU).
-- Bucks lost 11 of their last 13 games (1-8 vs spread last nine A).
-- Suns lost fifteen of last seventeen games (6-5 vs spread last 11 H).
-- Warriors lost three of their last four games overall. San Antonio lost its last six road games.

Totals
-- Four of last five Chicago road games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Miami games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Charlotte home games stayed under total.
-- 12 of last 17 Brooklyn games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Philly games stayed under the total.
-- Last seven Memphis games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 8-4 in Utah's last twelve games.
-- Four of last five Sacramento games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eleven Nugget games stayed under.
-- Under is 11-4-1 in last sixteen Houston games.
-- Eight of last eleven San Antonio games stayed under the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Chicago is 10-4 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Miami is 10-6 vs spread on road if it played night before. Cavaliers covered four of last five games if they played the night before.
-- New York covered last five times it played night before.
-- Brooklyn is 5-3 vs spread at home if it played night before.
-- 76ers covered five of last seven times they played night before.
-- Dallas covered last seven times it played night before.
-- Sacramento is 4-7 vs spread last 11 times it played night before.
-- Denver is 11-5-1 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Rockets are 8-13 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- San Antonio is 4-6-1 vs spread last 11 times it played night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

04/15/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 783-372 (.678)
ATS: 627-557 (.530)
ATS Vary Units: 1571-1384 (.532)
Over/Under: 612-574 (.516)
Over/Under Vary Units: 811-728 (.527)

New York 104, CHARLOTTE 92
Chicago 96, ORLANDO 92
Miami 105, CLEVELAND 94
BROOKLYN 99, Washington 91
DETROIT 96, Philadelphia 94
Denver 111, MILWAUKEE 103
DALLAS 97, Memphis 94
OKLAHOMA CITY 118, Sacramento 99
Utah 101, MINNESOTA 99
Houston 108, PHOENIX 102
San Antonio 104, GOLDEN STATE 102