4-17-13

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1019-754 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free winner 8-3 run Cav's + 3 WED

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Wednesday

Tampa Bay -125

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Hockey Crusher
Buffalo Sabres + Boston Bruins OVER 5
(System Record: 49-3, won last game)
Overall Record: 49-34-1

Basketball Crusher
Dallas Mavericks -7.5 over New Orleans Hornets
(System Record: 90-4, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 90-67-4

Baseball Crusher
Seattle Mariners -118 over Detroit Tigers
(System Record: 11-1, lost last game)
Overall Record: 11-9

Soccer Crusher
Huracan + Godoy Cruz OVER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 386-14, lost last game and a push)
Overall Record: 386-332-47

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Cappers Access

Cardinals -130
A's(RL) -1.5(+118)
Bulls -8.5

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Sports Pickin' - April 17

NHL

Detroit ML

MLB

Los Angeles (N) -1.5
Tampa Bay -1.5

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BG Sports

76ers +5.5

Twins +120

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Ben Burns

Boston vs. Cleveland -April 17, 2013 - 7:05 PM

Pick: 9* Cleveland -132

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The four hottest bets in sports right now

The Atlanta Braves and Washington Capitals headline some of the hottest bets in sports. Here is a look at four of the best plays around:

(All stats going into Tuesday's action)

Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves are 11-1 SU (straight up) on the season and winners of nine games in a row. They lead the NL in ERA (1.82), WHIP (1.01), earned runs (22) and opponents' batting average (.200). The Braves are up $837 for the $100 per-game bettor on the season.

The Braves are -175 favorites at home versus the Kansas City Royals on Tuesday night.

Washington Capitals

The Caps have gotten hot at just the right time. Washington has won seven straight games as they position themselves for the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Captain Alex Ovechkin has powered Washington offensively notching nine goals, three assists and a plus-seven rating. Washington is up 5.74 units during their seven game winning streeak.

The Capitals are -152 at home on Tuesday night versus the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Oakland A's Over

The Oakland Athletics lead the American League in home runs with 20 and are hammering the over early this season. The A's boast a 12-2 over/under record and are 3-0 in their last three games overall. The A's also lead the AL in runs (85), doubles (36) and total bases (228).

Oakland is a -209 as they host the Houston Astros tonight. The total is 7.5.

Detroit Pistons

In the NBA, the Detroit Pistons are 7-0-1 ATS (against the spread). They have averaged 103.5 points per game during their last eight, well above their season average of 94.8.

The Pistons are on the road to close out their season as they face the Brooklyn Nets Wednesday. Vegas-based odds service The Sports Club lists an opening line of Brooklyn -6 and a total of 193.

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NBA

Wednesday, April 17

On the court or on the bench? NBA final day injury report

Wednesday is the final night of the NBA regular season and some teams are preparing for the playoffs while others are looking at the offseason.

Here's a look at the injury and rest situation heading into the final game of the season.

Boston Celtics
The Celtics will finish seventh in the Eastern Conference and play the Knicks in the first round. Paul Pierce is dealing with an illness but is probable Wednesday against Indiana. Kevin Garnett has played three of the past four games, but missed the previous eight games with an ankle injury. Jason Terry will sit out.

Brooklyn Nets
The Nets will finish fourth in the Eastern Conference and have nothing to play for in its final game against Detroit. Brooklyn could rest Joe Johnson who missed five games in late March and early April with a quad injury.

New York Knicks
New York has clinched the second seed in the East and has sent its stars to the bench. Carmelo Anthony, Tyson Chandler, J.R. Smith, Ray Felton and Kenyon Martin all wore suits on Monday against the Bobcats. Anthony could see some minutes on Wednesday against the Hawks, according to the New York Post. Chandler has missed the past five games with a neck injury. Coach Mike Woodson told ESPN Radio that he is confident that both Chandler and Kenyon Martin will be ready for Game 1 of the playoffs against the Celtics.

Miami Heat
The Heat have nothing to play for against the bottom-feeding Magic. Four members of the starting lineup -- LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Mario Chalmers -- all sat in the team's last game against Cleveland. James has been nursing a hamstring injury while Wade and Bosh have been bothered by knee injuries.

Chicago Bulls
Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah returned to the lineup on Monday for the Bulls. Chicago will finish either fifth or sixth and will finish the season against Washington. "We need a lot of energy late, and I told them I was going to play today," Gibson said after the game. "They had me on limited minutes, they had Jo on limited minutes, but we just wanted to be out there and really push the guys and know that we got to sharpen up. We got to get ready for the playoffs."

San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs will finish second in the Western Conference. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard did not play Tuesday against Golden State. But Manu Ginobili could return to the lineup against Minnesota on Wednesday according to the San Antonio Express-News.

Denver Nuggets
Kenneth Faried will miss Denver's game against Phoenix. If the Nuggets win, they will finish third in the Western Conference.

Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers will make the playoffs if they beat Houston in the final game of the season. Kobe Bryant is out with a torn ACL and Steve Nash will also miss the game with the Rockets as MRIs confirmed he has nerve irritation from old injuries that are contributing to his hamstring pain the team announced Tuesday.

Portland Trail Blazers
LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum were all expected to miss Tuesday's game against the Clippers and Batum is confirmed to miss the team's final game against the Warriors.

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Paul Leiner

100* RedSox/Indians Over 8

50* Mariners -115

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Profit Bets

Braves ML
Oakland ML
Yankees ML

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Bob Balfe

April 17th 2013

Wednesday NBA & MLB

NBA

Kings +6.5 over Clippers
The Clippers are going to watch the Nuggets beat the Suns and will have nothing to play for. This Kings organization might be playing in their final home game in this city. This happened two years ago as they were not sure the team would return to Sacramento and let me tell you it was as electric and as emotional as a building could ever get. This team stinks, but they have A+ fans. I think this will be their final game here and they will go out with a bang against a Clippers team that rest its starters. Take the Kings

Pistons +5.5 over Nets
I give this Pistons team a lot of credit. They have won 4 in a row and are not packing it in like most of the other non playoff teams. The Nets have struggled a bit and will be resting starters for the playoffs. This Pistons team is known to get aggressive so there is no need to have a starter get hurt playing in a meaningless game. Take the Pistons.

Bulls -8 over Wizards
Chicago has not been playing their best basketball and its imperative that they win today to get a more favorable playoff matchup and at home they need to beat the Wizards which are a horrible road team, This is a statement game more than anything to get this team in the right mind set for the playoffs. Take the Bulls.

Mavs -7.5 over Hornets
It was really a bad effort the other night by the Mavs as they blew a 12 pt lead to the Grizzles Bench. The Hornets have packed it in for the season and cannot be compared to Memphis in any way. Dallas has a demanding owner and great fans. This game will get them back to .500 ball and leave the fans with someone to feel good about. Take Dallas.

Rockets +3 over Lakers
With Kobe out of the lineup the Lakers have no guidance and no chance in the playoffs. Houston has a lot to play for because they could fall a spot with a loss. I just don’t see the Lakers winning this game. I don’t know how they beat the Spurs the other night, but I don’t think this team is good enough to win with all the injuries they have. I could see the Lakers and the Jazz both losing tonight. I don’t trust the Lakers with Kobe and now without the best player of the last two decades I don’t like their chances. Take Houston.

MLB

Tigers +105 over Mariners
Scherzer/Hernandez
Felix Hernandez is a great pitcher, but the poor guy just never gets run support. Max Scherzer is a strikeout machine this year and he doesn’t walk many batters. Seattle just does not generate enough offense when facing pitchers like this. The Mariners need to get men on base by walks in order to generate runs. If not they are going to hover around 3 runs a game and most of the time its just not enough to win in this league. Take Detroit.

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Ben Burns NBA

Personal Favorite - Charlotte Bobcats

Best Bet - Sac Kings

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Dave Essler's Cliff Notes

With a reasonable amount of games played now, we're starting to see some viable numbers we can use. I always look at bullpen usage/stats, and there's some interesting ones. Of course, looking at much of anything tomorrow may be out of the question. Hard to say.

From the 7th inning on, the DODGERS have a team WHIP of 0.59. In stark contrast, the ANGELS team WHIP from the 7th inning on in 1.91. Now, I knew they had issues, but not THAT many. The Angels team ERA during that period is 9.82 and the opposing teams are hitting .340 (not a misprint) in that same time frame. Somewhat surprisingly, the Brewers haven't given up a home run after the 7th inning. The Cardinals are hitting .438 with RISP and two outs (padded that one at our expense last night). The other end of that spectrum---the Dodgers, hitting .172 with RISP and two outs, followed closely by Washington (.179).

St. Louis at Pittsburgh: Miller is indeed the real deal, but no longer under the radar, at least from an odds standpoint. He COULD be over valued here, as he is only 22 and threw 113 pitches or so in that one-hitter (7 innings) he tossed last week. That could be especially true if the Cardinals don't get some innings from Westbrook on Tuesday, because the pen hasn't been their best friend. I've been on A.J.'s bandwagon early, but if the past is an indicator of the future, the Cardinal hit him reasonably well. Caveat to that is that Burnett's best month is typically April, before he starts thinking too much. Have to think he's at least pumped to not let the kid show him up, so perhaps the under here.

Phillies at Reds: If I take the Reds, Phillips will either rest, or hit into three double plays. If I take the Phillies, he will go yard at a very inopportune time. Always look at overs w/Leake pitching, as he's like another stick. Reds always one of the better hitting teams against LHP, but Lannan is one of those junk pitchers that can induce a shitload of groundball outs. Leake's been hit pretty hard in two starts and by the Phillies starters in limited at bats, but enough to tell me it's the Phillies or nothing.

Washington at Miami: Waiting for a Fish total to be .5 run more than the oppositions team total. With the Nationals not hitting in key situations and the Fish just not being able to hit, have to think under, again. However, Nolaso will keep the ball up at times. Detwiler has shut down the Reds and the Braves, so barring a complete mental collapse should do the same thing here. The problem with taking the under here is the Nationals bullpen, and the fact that that's when (late) the Fish seem to find ways to score. Nolasco's fourth start, and he's owned all the Marlins but Harper. Pitch around him if he can, and in fact this does have the look of another 3-1 game to me.

Giants at Brewers: Well, it's getting to the point where the Giants pen might have to be reconsidered and not back blindly, at least by me. Their back end has an ERA of 5.21 away from the big AT & T park. Vogelsong's been crushed, twice, and once by the Cubs. So, conventional wisdom says it happens again, but take away Ramirez's 18 at bats against him, and there's not a lot of familiarity with the Brewers. Enough that it'd be hard to fade him blindly. Lohse has been brilliant (WHIP under .90) and doesn't have enough exposure to the Giants sticks for me to even think about taking San Francisco, and the price may be too high on Milwaukee to play the ML. This looks like 7-2 Brewers to me.

Tampa Bay at Baltimore: Moore but be something special to have a team hitting .205 behind him and be a road favorite. I guess that would mean to take the under. Tillman pitched reasonably well in Boston last week, but we can't disregard his first start, at home, against the Twins. Longoria's three homers in twelve at bats can't be ignored. He (Tillman) could be a bit motivated, remembering the last game he pitched in 2012 when the Rays hit three jacks in five innings in Tampa Bay. There is SOME evidence that Baltimore could get the fourth hit Moore will have given up this year.

LA Angels at Minnesota: Tough to fathom a team with an ERA from the 7th inning on with an ERA over 9.00 with their fifth starter on the mound being favored on the road, and against a pitcher they've never seen. Now, Worley isn't a stud, but he's not the pitcher the Mets blew up, either. And just two years ago the Phillies were 20-5 in games he pitched. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, as is the fact that the Twins weren't scoring. They do have the potential to put up runs. If it weren't going to be terrible weather, I'd take the over whatever it is. I simply could not lay -125 on Tommy Hanson.

My Heritage plays will include Tim Clark, Aaron Baddeley, Webb Simpson, and Zach Johnson. Once there are odds that are Top Ten (or similar) I'll use these guys. This is one Tournament I do know, but without widely available bets/lines, there's no point in making graded plays. I'll pass on bets and where I bet them. I do not profess to bet these week after week, but living here I do feel like I've got SOME knowledge......will tell you more when I know more. Short course, tiny greens, long par 3's. Putting and 7 iron approach shots at a premium. Length is off the tee is essentially meaningless, as evidenced by the one time El Tigre played here he almost missed the cut, and that was in the middle of his sick run of never missing one.

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Scott Delaney

Second Biggest Release
of the NBA Season

80 Dime NBA Winner #4 in a Row

Playoff Implication Game of the Year

Memphis -5