4-20-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Profit Bets

Dortmund ML (*3)

Arsenal ML (*2)

West Brom pk (*2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Todays Best Bets

(5 UNITS) Reds RL-1.5

(5 UNITS) Celtics +7

(5 UNITS) Warriors +8

(3 UNITS) Braves

(4 UNITS)Chi/Nets OVER 181

(4 UNITS) Clippers -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big al
NBA Selections for Saturday, Apr. 20

3* Nuggets -7.5
Opinion Clippers -5
Opinion Knicks -6.5

Baseball Selections for Saturday, Apr. 20

3* Indians -110 (Kazmir/Humber)
3* White Sox -169 (Peavy/Worley)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

60 dime play Knicks -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

4_Seasons Power Plays of the Day (MLB)
Atlanta -132 (Maholm)
Boston -143 (Buchholz)
Philadelphia -135 (Lee)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PAUL LEINER

100* Rays -130

50* Yankees -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Erin Rynning Sports

20* Playmaker: Boston/New York Under 190.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Boston at New York Knicks (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: New York Knicks -7 (-110)

The NBA Playoffs get underway, and the first tipoff will be between the Boston Celtics and the New York Knicks. The Knicks were crushed two years ago in the opening round vs. Boston, losing four games to none, and that will serve as motivation this year to return the favor. The Knicks have goten much better, and deeper, while the Celtics have gotten a lot older and injured. The Knicks took three out of four during the regular season from the C's, and a pair of those were by double-digits late in the season. Boston comes in limping as they lost 11 of their last 16 games, and may keep up for awhile here, but NY is vasty superior this time around. The Knicks own a 10-1 ATS record vs. winning teams coming into this one, and get it done at the Garden. Play on New York.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WinSportsNow MLB 4/20

4-4 yesterday

Reds-1.5
Over 8.5 Brewers
Rockies-130
Padres+160
Redsox-130
Over 8.5 Astros
Under 9.5 Rangers
Orioles-130(GAME#2 at 7pm eastern)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi (free play)

PHILADELPHIA (-150) over ST Louis
7:05 p.m. ET


Cliff Lee has been awesome for the Phillies so far this season. He goes to the hill tonight with a 2-0 mark, 1.52 ERA, a microscopic 0.68 WHIP and opponents are only hitting .179 against the veteran lefty. Cardinal right hander Lance Lynn is also 2-0 this season but has a 5.40 ERA and has really struggled on the road. Lynn, who shed some 40 pounds during the off-season, has had a hard time developing a consistent delivery with his new body. He has reached six innings only once in three starts this year and the Cardinal bullpen has been an adventure at best this year. Let's back Lee and the Phillies to make it two in a row over St. Louis tonight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

5Lines

Total Line for 04/20/2013

(Lost last 6 games) Today's Winning Team is: NBA - Boston Celtics : o189 Cost: -110

Run Line for 04/20/2013

(Won last game) Today's Winning Team is: MLB - Washington Nationals : -1.5 Cost: +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Donaghy

under boston 189
over clippers 179

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tds Pucks Dunks Service Plays
Service Plays Apr. 20 2013

Long Ball #965 New York Yankees +100 (5 Play)
Long Ball #976 Houston Astros -105 (2 Play)

Off a 2-1 Fri, 2-0 Thur, Season 30-8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

L.A. ANGELS -109 over Detroit

With just five wins in their first 15 games, the Angels stock is probably the lowest it’s going to be the rest of the way. That allows us to step in and buy low here. The Angels are too loaded to be losing at this clip and last night’s 8-1 win in the opener of this series could certainly springboard them. With so few Ks and BBs, Rick Porcello is at the mercy of the Detroit defense, which isn’t likely to garner much Gold Glove discussion. As a result, it’s not too surprising that Porcello’s hit % is high, adversely affecting his ERA. Last season, lefties battered him to the tune of .325/.381/.503. In two starts and one relief appearance against the A’s in which Porcello entered with a 9-1 lead, Porcello has struck out three batters in 12.1 innings. In Porcello’s two starts against the Blue Jays and Twins, he surrendered 14 hits and seven earned runs and barely made it into the fifth inning in both games. Porcello is a pitcher that puts the ball in play. He has a good groundball profile (51%) and normally GBs would be a decent proxy for Ks but he had Detroit’s horrible defensive infield behind him. They caused Porcello’s hit % punishment and without personnel changes we can't count on regression. Porcello’s strikeout rate has dipped, he was skipped in his last scheduled start and he could be a pitcher in trouble.

Garrett Richards’ command can be inconsistent but he has mid-90s, GB-generating stuff, which makes him worth keeping an eye on. He was solid in spring training and out of the pen early, so a breakthrough wouldn't surprise. There is little question that Richards has the pure stuff to pitch effectively in the big leagues. Against the Tigers last year he had his best major-league start of 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 K’s. In 11 innings this year that includes one start, Richards has an elite groundball rate of 55% and a WHIP of 0.94. It’s a small sample size but it could continue because his strong profile says so. The Angels erupted for eight runs last night, which matched their highest output of the season so far. They’ve now scored 14 runs in their past two games. The Angels bats are heating up and now we get them at a cheap price at home with a favorable pitching matchup. That works.


N.Y. Yankees -107 over TORONTO

The Yankees have won eight of their past 10 games with a series sweep over Cleveland and series wins over both Baltimore and Arizona. The Blue Jays have one series win in five so far. Over their last 10 games, the Yanks are hitting .294 and have scored 62 runs while the Blue Jays are batting .227 and have scored 36 runs over that same span. The Bronx Bombers lead the majors with 19 jacks. The Blue Jays have gone yard eight times. Last night, New York belted out 13 hits and nine runs while the Blue Jays had five hits going to the bottom of the ninth and had two meaningless hits in that final half frame. The Yankees have something to prove and they’re doing so by playing aggressive baseball and playing with a chip on their shoulder. The Blue Jays are playing passive, they have an idiot manager who is completely clueless in his decisions, they seldom hit with men on base and they are without question the most overvalued team in the big leagues.

Now we get the Yanks, spotting less than a dime, with the ever reliable Huroki Kuroda going with his 2.87 ERA and 61% groundball rate against Mark Buehrle’s 7.31 ERA, 40% groundball rate and 1.75 WHIP. Are you kidding? Yanks should be -150 here, not -107.


Cleveland -½ +115 over HOUSTON

1st 5 innings. The Indians have dropped five straight and Scott Kazmir gets his first start of the year and his first start since 2011. That combination has set up this huge underlay on the Tribe. This past spring, Kazmir was outstanding before an abdominal strain landed him on the DL before the season started. At one point in the spring, Kazmir threw 11 scoreless innings in succession and led the staff with 13 K’s in those 11 frames. “I had time to take a step back and go back to the drawing board and kind of figure out what came naturally to me,” said Kazmir. “With time off, it really helped me out. I was able to correct myself.” Kazmir made undisclosed mechanical adjustments and has gained 10 mph on his fastball. Manager Terry Francona, who has seen his fair share of dominating pitchers, had this to say about Kazmir, “The way he's throwing scares me. I wish we could bottle it and start the season already”. The Indians will come into this game a little extra jacked up in support of Kazmir because every player is rooting for him to succeed. This is the perfect opponent for Kazmir to get started against. The reports are that he feels great. Chances are that Kazmir won’t go much past five innings so that’s the way we’ll play it.

Philip Humber has a 2.89 ERA after three starts and 18.1 innings. He deserves better than a 0-3 record but if he can’t win games with that ERA, how is he going to win when his ERA skyrockets to match his skills? At the age of 30, Humber has one good year to his credit. He has a career ERA of 4.76 in 355 career innings, covering six seasons. In seven career starts against the Indians, Humber has an 8.74 ERA and current Indians are hitting .302 against him. Humber has a low strikeout rate, his control is on a three-year decline and he barely made the Astros roster as the fifth starter. Being Houston’s fifth starter is as close to being a minor-league pitcher as it gets. Philip Humber is fill-in fodder right now and we get to take advantage of a bad line because not many people know just how good Scott Kazmir might be this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Islanders +106 over WINNIPEG

OT included. The Islanders are on a serious run at the moment but they still have a ways to go to lock up a playoff spot. The Isles are in seventh place, just two points ahead of the eighth place Rangers and just three points ahead of the ninth place Jets. It goes without saying that this game is huge and we simply can’t ignore the outstanding form that this visitor is displaying. Against the Maple Leafs on Thursday night, the Islanders dominated play, outshot the Leafs 38-21 and scored five straight goals en route to a convincing win. The Islanders have been dominating opponents for the better part of their last 13 games. On the road, the Islanders are 13-5-2 and overall, they are 10-1-2 over its past 13 games. The Islanders have scored 10 times over their past two games. They’ve allowed two or less in nine of their past 10. Simply put, the Islanders are playing too well to ignore as a pooch.

The Jets are playing well too with five straight wins. However, all five of those victories came against teams (Carolina, Tampa, Florida, Buffalo and Philadelphia) that will be watching the playoffs from the rail. The Jets have dropped seven in a row to teams heading to the playoffs and have not defeated a club in a playoff position since March 19 when they knocked off the Bruins 3-1. That was 15 games ago and now the Jets will play the hottest team in the league. The Jets have proven that they can’t win the big games against strong teams and chances are that will continue here.


Detroit +142 over VANCOUVER

OT included. It’s been a long time since the Red Wings have been on the outside looking in with just a handful of games remaining. Detroit is in ninth place in the West, just two points back of the Jackets but Detroit has two games in hand. This is one of those. Detroit is not the same team as seasons past but they still have some outstanding talent that has been in pressure filled situations before. The Red Wings figure to give it their all here and that alone makes them worthy of taking back this tag.

The Canucks are a team we just can’t get on board with. When the Canucks win, it’s often ugly, lucky or both. Vancouver has lost three of four with only win over that span occurring against the Predators. Vancouver is coming off a 5-1 loss to the Stars. The Canucks also return home from a five-game road trip with two wins on said trip. The two victories came against Calgary and Nashville in which Vancouver was outshot by a combined 79-53. The Canucks win more than they lose because they have one of the top 3 netminders in the league in Cory Schneider. Without him, they would have fewer wins than Florida. We don’t care what the standings say. The Vancouver Canucks are not a good hockey team, especially without Kevin Bieska. Vancouver plays with a sense that their window for winning the Cup has closed. This is not the team you want to be spotting significant juice with, especially against a Detroit team with its backs against the wall.