4-21-13

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JACK JONES

-= TOP PLAY =-

NBA | Apr 21 '13 (3:30p) Los Angeles Lakers vs San Antonio Spurs	Total 192½ un-110 at BetOnline
20* Lakers/Spurs ABC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 192.5

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NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Preview: Round 1

The Eastern Conference playoffs are a complicated sandwich of sorts. On top you have the Miami Heat and on the bottom the Milwaukee Bucks. But in between is one of the tightest and most competitive groups in years.

Teams seeded No. 2 through No. 7 have just as much of a chance to make the conference finals as the clubs ranked above or below them. The Knicks, Pacers, Nets, Bulls, Hawks and Celtics are all capable of beating each other on any given night. That parity should open up value in the series prices and Eastern Conference futures market.

No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 8 Milwaukee Bucks

Season series: Heat won 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U

Series prices: Miami -6,000, Milwaukee +4,000

Why bet Miami: Why not? The Heat are hands down the class of the NBA and have been waiting for this moment since hoisting last year’s Larry O’Brien Trophy. Miami continued to build on its NBA-best record despite resting LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh over the final weeks of the schedule, and kept covering thanks to a deep and experienced bench.

Why bet the Bucks: Milwaukee has known its first-round opponent for some time now and has had plenty of tape to hammer out a game plan for the Heat. In their one win over Miami, the Bucks were able to force 22 turnovers. They rank second in the NBA in forcing turnovers (16.1) while the Heat coughed the ball up 14 times a night – fourth most in the league.

No. 3 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks

Season series: Split 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U

Series prices: Indiana -600, Atlanta +400

Why bet the Pacers: Indiana earned the No. 3 seed in the East despite having its star forward Danny Granger for just five games all season. The Pacers are a tough out at home, where they went 30-10 SU (22-18 ATS). They rebound well and play tight defense – two key components for any successful postseason run.

Why bet the Hawks: Indiana limped into the postseason with just one win in its final six games. The Hawks, who are a tough road team - 23-18 ATS - could steal a game or two in Indianapolis. The teams split their four games SU and ATS this year but Atlanta has been the better wager, going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 head-to-heads.

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NBA Western Conference Playoff Preview: Round 1

It was a wild ride in the Western Conference and the fun won’t end with the regular season. Oklahoma City edged out San Antonio for the top seed while the L.A. Lakers, expected to run the table in the conference, squeaked into the No. 7 spot on the final night of the season.

The L.A. Clippers, Denver and Memphis have all looked like title contenders at times this year and Golden State and Houston are as dangerous as any team with their high-powered offenses. Needless to say, there are more surprises in store for the West during the postseason.

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Houston Rockets

Season series: Thunder won 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 O/U

Series prices: Oklahoma City -2,000, Houston +1,200

Why bet the Thunder: Oklahoma City lost just seven games at home and went 27-14 ATS as a host this season. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are a handful for Houston’s porous defense and combined to average just under 50 points in the three games with the Rockets. Houston’s up-and-down game leads to a league-high 16.4 turnovers a game.

Why bet the Rockets: Houston can explode offensively and finished second in the NBA with 106 points per game. The Thunder have struggled in close games, going just 3-6 SU in contests decided by three points or less. And don’t forget about former OKC guard James Harden, who averaged more than 29 points in the three games versus his former club, including a 46-point performance in their last meeting.

No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers

Season series: Spurs won 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O/U

Series prices: San Antonio -1,600, Los Angeles +1,000

Why bet the Spurs: San Antonio lost only six games at home all season while L.A. was terrible on the road, going 16-25 SU and 15-25-1 ATS. Spurs PG Tony Parker is going to be a handful for the Lakers’ unathletic duo of Steven Blake and Steve Nash, who is less than healthy. San Antonio shoots better than 79 percent from the foul line, L.A. shoots an NBA-worst 69.2 percent. No Kobe. Who makes the tough shots?

Why bet the Lakers: Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard is the best frontcourt tandem in the league and should push the Spurs around under the basket. Los Angeles was the second-best rebounding team in the NBA while San Antonio finished second last on the glass in the West. Lakers get Games 3, 4 and 6 at Staples Center, where they have lost just once since the All-Star break (13-1 SU, 7-6-1 ATS).

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TEAM DOC SPORTS Series Plays

2-Unit Pick #889 Take Atlanta +485 over Indiana
Neither team has played well to finish out the season, and we just think this series is very much closer than the oddsmakers expect. Very much worth it to take a shot on this underdog price. The Hawks were one of the most inconsistent and frustrating teams to handicap this season. They could look great against the best in the league then they could stink it up against the worst. But they did split their season series with Indiana, and there are no other teams other than the Knicks and Heat in the east we really trust to advance out of the first round. This Indiana team just doesn't inspire us much right now, and we could see the Hawks playing their normal season M.O. and rising to the occasion in this series. This is a close one that should go the distance, and we think the price is right here to take a shot on the underdog.

1-Unit Pick #891 Take LA Lakers +1200 over San Antonio
We were hoping that this was the matchup that happened instead of the Lakers-OKC, and we think that LA has a real chance here. You know the NBA wants the Lakers to advance over the ?boring? Spurs (at least the general public finds them boring, although I do not). The Lakers might get the benefit of some calls, and they played great down the stretch and are seeming to vibe with their coach, and even though Kobe is out, this team still has Dwight Howard, who was a playoff factor with worse teams than he is on now. And the Spurs are one injury away from this being a real close series. The Spurs have not looked as good down the stretch as they did last season (nowhere close), and we think this line is a huge obverreaction to the Kobe injury and that this line should be closer to -600. This is worth it to take a shot on the Lakers at these long odds.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

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NBA Playoffs: Sunday's East Betting Preview

Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers (-6.5, 185.5)

The Indiana Pacers have believed they are capable of knocking off the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference since taking them to the brink last spring. If they hope to get another shot at the defending champs, the third-seeded Pacers will have to figure out a way around the Atlanta Hawks first. The sixth-seeded Hawks visit Indiana on Sunday for Game 1 and have the type of size and strength that could frustrate the Pacers.

The teams split four meetings in the regular season, with each holding home court. Atlanta’s Josh Smith and Al Horford will battle with Indiana’s David West and Roy Hibbert on the inside and try to draw them away from the basket. The Pacers are one of the most disciplined defensive teams in the league but began to show some cracks in April while dropping five of six to close out the regular season. Indiana allowed 102.1 points in its final eight games - nearly 12 points above its season average.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE HAWKS (44-38): Atlanta did not exactly finish with a flurry, either, losing five of their final seven to erase any chance of homecourt advantage in the first round. The Hawks went 19-22 on the road and dropped four of their final six away from Atlanta during the regular season, including a 100-94 setback at Indiana on March 25. Smith scored 20 points but the Hawks were outrebounded 49-38 in the loss. Smith played sparingly over the final weeks while fighting off a knee injury but looked strong when he was in the lineup and shot 55 percent from the field in the final month. Atlanta is counting on the point guard combo of Jeff Teague and Devin Harris to give it an advantage on the perimeter. Teague averaged nine assists in April and cut his turnovers to 2.3 - the lowest of any month.

ABOUT THE PACERS (49-32): Indiana looked like a lock for the No. 2 seed in the East before its slump coincided with the New York Knicks’ surge. Either way, the Pacers will have to make it to the Eastern Conference finals if the want to get another crack at the Heat. Indiana led the NBA in rebounding average behind Hibbert and West and was second in points allowed despite the letup on that end late in the season. The biggest difference between this spring and last is the increase role of shooting guard Lance Stephenson, who has given the team a tenacious perimeter defender and a solid shooting option on the wing. Stephenson missed the last meeting with the Hawks but collected 14 points and six rebounds in a 114-103 win over them on Feb. 5.

TRENDS:

* Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. Eastern Conference foes.
* Pacers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight Sunday games.
* Over is 7-1 in Hawks’ last eight road games.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Smith has averages 15.6 points on 42 percent shooting in 46 career playoff games.

2. Atlanta lost to Boston in the first round last season, ending a streak of three straight first-round series wins.

3. The teams met in the playoffs three straight seasons from 1993-94 through 1995-96. They have not faced off in the postseason since.

Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat (-13, 199)

The Miami Heat have spent the last two weeks resting up for the playoffs, sometimes sitting all five starters at the same time and still winning games. The eighth-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, who visit the top-seeded Heat in the opener of a first-round playoff series on Sunday, have spent the last two weeks backing into the postseason. The Bucks are the only team in the playoffs with a losing record and dropped seven of nine down the stretch.

Most of Miami’s injuries were of the nagging or non-existent variety down the stretch with the exception of Dwyane Wade, who was battling a knee issue. Wade returned over the final two games and looked sharp with 21 points and 10 assists on Wednesday. The Heat are the favorites to repeat as champion and have done little to make anyone doubt that prognostication. Miami finished the season with wins in 37 of its final 39 games and ranks in the top five in both points scored and points allowed. Milwaukee will try to pick at the Heat’s lone weakness on the glass while Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings attempt to wear them out on the perimeter.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT, Sun Sports (Miami)

ABOUT THE BUCKS (38-44): Milwaukee was two games above .500 after beating the Portland Trail Blazers on March 19 and was threatening to move up out of the No. 8 spot. But the Bucks went 4-12 over their final 16 games and struggled on the defensive end while getting inconsistent production from Jennings and Ellis on the perimeter. Jennings went 1-for-11 from the field in a home loss to Denver in the next-to-last game of the season but had one of his best games with 30 points on 10-of-16 shooting in a 94-83 loss at Miami on April 9. That marked the only time in Milwaukee’s final 22 games that he shot better than 50 percent from the floor. Where the Bucks excel is on the glass. Larry Sanders, Ersan Ilyasova and John Henson will try to keep LeBron James off the boards and out of transition.

ABOUT THE HEAT (66-16): Miami has the best player in the game in James and put together the second-longest winning streak in NBA history with 27 straight that included 107-94 triumph at Milwaukee on March 15. Anything less than back-to-back titles will be a disappointment for the Heat. Miami’s biggest worry on Sunday will be how the team comes together after so many of the regulars took multiple games off and did not get a chance to play together down the stretch. The Heat should be able to shake off that rust by halftime in their own building, where they posted an Eastern Conference-best 37-4 record. James just finished up a regular season in which he shot 56.5 percent from the field and 40.6 percent from beyond the arc. He went 11-for-16 from the field in the April 9 win over the Bucks and has averaged 29.4 points on 50.1 percent shooting against Milwaukee in his career.

TRENDS:

* Bucks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Heat’s last six home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Bucks’ last four Sunday games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Sanders missed the final four games of the regular season with a back injury and is questionable for Sunday.

2. The Heat are bidding to become the 10th team (out of 13) to win the title after posting at least 66 wins in the regular season.

3. Henson averaged 15 points and 15 rebounds in the final five games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA Playoffs: Sunday's West Betting Preview

Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs (-8.5, 189)

What would have been considered a marquee matchup entering the season is shaping up as a battle of attrition when the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs clash with the No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers in the opening round of the playoffs. The Lakers have lost superstar Kobe Bryant to a torn Achilles’ tendon and are unsure about the availability of point guard Steve Nash entering Sunday's Game 1 of the best-of-seven series at San Antonio. Although Nash has stated that he wants to play.

The Spurs have their own major health concerns, primarily revolving around point guard Tony Parker, who had elevated himself into the MVP discussion until suffering an ankle injury in early March. San Antonio also has questions surrounding veteran swingman Manu Ginobili, who missed nine games with a hamstring injury before returning to play limited minutes in the regular-season finale. The Spurs limp into the postseason having lost three straight and eight of 13 while Los Angeles closed the season with five straight victories and eight of nine.

TV: 3:30 ET, ABC

ABOUT THE LAKERS (45-37): Forward Pau Gasol, who was benched at the end of January, carried Los Angeles to its postseason-clinching win on the final day by recording a triple-double in an overtime victory over Houston. Without Bryant, the Lakers will be reliant on the inside tandem of Gasol and center Dwight Howard, who had 26 points and 17 rebounds in a narrow victory over San Antonio last Sunday. Nash missed the last eight games with hamstring and hip soreness, but he reported improvement after recently receiving two epidural shots in his lower back. Backup point guard Steve Blake has filled an offensive void since Bryant went down, scoring 47 points in the last two.

ABOUT THE SPURS (58-24): Parker was brilliant in leading San Antonio to 16 wins in 17 games in January and February, scoring 30 points six times in a nine-game span. He played in only five games in April and one was a four-point, 1-for-10 effort against the Lakers. Tim Duncan continues to defy the aging process, finishing with 11 double-doubles in his last 15 games. Kawhi Leonard (11.9 points), Ginobili (11.8), Danny Green (10.5) and Tiago Splitter (10.3) all average in double figures, but Duncan knows who provides the biggest impact. “Manu changes the game for us. He’s done it for years," Duncan said. "To have him back out there and to have another X-factor is huge for us.”

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in Lakers’ last six road games.
* Under is 5-0 in Spurs’ last five Sunday games.
* Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The teams are meeting for the 12th time in the postseason, with Los Angeles leading 8-3.

2. Howard has averaged 19 points and 13.2 rebounds lifetime against the Spurs, who won two of three meetings this season by a total of five points.

3. San Antonio is 17-9 against Los Angeles when Parker scores at least 20 points.

Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder (-10, 213.5)

James Harden was a key cog on the Oklahoma City squad that reached the NBA Finals last season. Now the Houston Rockets’ star would like to end the Thunder’s season in the opening round. Houston visits Oklahoma City in Sunday’s series opener and the Rockets are in the playoffs for the first time in four years, primarily because Harden emerged as the NBA’s fifth-leading scorer. Oklahoma City traded Harden when it couldn’t reach contractual terms with him.

The Thunder won two of the three regular-season meetings but Harden exploded for a career-high 46 points in Houston’s 122-119 victory on Feb. 20. The eighth-seeded Rockets lack the postseason experience that the Thunder possess. “Guys have never been in this situation, they’ve never been in the playoffs,” Harden said. “Blessed and fortunate to have been there a few times and whatever advice I can give, I just let it out.” Oklahoma City earned the top seed in the Western Conference despite the Harden deal that brought backup guard Kevin Martin to town. “We felt we moved on pretty quick, and it’s shown through what we’ve been able to accomplish this year with our record,” Thunder coach Scott Brooks said.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (45-37): Harden averaged 25.9 points as a lead option and will be expected to carry the flow. Yet Houston does have a few other solid options in forward Chandler Parsons, center Omer Asik, point guard Jeremy Lin and forward Carlos Delfino. Asik averaged 10.1 points and 11.7 rebounds and his performance will be crucial for Houston to give Oklahoma City a stern test. “You’re talking about a team that went to the finals last year in Oklahoma City,” Rockets coach Kevin McHale told reporters. “That place is going to electric Sunday night. It’s going to be a big, big high-energy crowd. They’re going to be excited. Our guys have to be excited to do it.”

ABOUT THE THUNDER (60-22): There are expectations of Oklahoma City returning to the Finals but the Thunder know the road will be tough. “Most people say a 1-8 seed (matchup) is supposed to be easy, or a 2-7 seed,” forward Kevin Durant said. “We’ve never had an easy series. Never. Last year was so tough against Dallas, it took all we had for us to beat those guys. This year, Houston. I think they’re playing better than an eighth seed and play so well. So we’ve got our work cut out for us.” Durant averaged 26.3 points against Houston this season while point guard Russell Westbrook averaged 23.3 points, 8.3 assists and 7.7 rebounds. Forward Serge Ibaka also excelled, shooting 64.5 percent from the field while averaging 16 points, 8.7 rebounds and four blocks.

TRENDS:

* Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Thunder’s last seven home games.
* Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Oklahoma City’s two victories over the Rockets were by scores of 120-98 and 124-94.

2. Asik recorded double-digit rebounding outings in eight of the last 10 games.

3. Martin averaged 17 points in the three outings against Houston.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spurs Favored Big over Lakers Sunday
by Brian Graham

Western Conference Playoffs First Round - Game 1
Tip-off: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -9, Total: 189.5

After relinquishing the No. 1 seed with a late-season slide, the Spurs try to regroup when they open the postseason on Sunday against the Kobe Bryant-less Lakers.

Los Angeles enters the playoffs on a hot streak, winning eight of its final nine games (5-3-1 ATS), including five straight victories to earn the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference. San Antonio lost seven of its final 10 regular-season games, and was an atrocious 2-12 ATS in its final 14 contests with seven straight ATS defeats. Its season-ending, three-game skid began with a 91-86 loss on the road against the Lakers, who avoided a season sweep at the hands of the Spurs with that win. But the two San Antonio victories over L.A. came by just two points (84-82) on Nov. 13 and by three points on Jan. 9, by a score of 108-105. Although the Lakers are a respectable 5-5 SU in their past 10 road games, they were pretty awful away from home all season with marks of 16-25 SU and 15-26 ATS (37%). The Spurs were just 1-7 ATS in their final eight home games to finish the season with a 19-20-2 ATS record at AT&T Center, but they only lost six games straight-up at home, going 35-6 (85%) this season.

Los Angeles has played very well on both ends of the court during its five-game win streak, scoring 105.0 PPG on 46% FG, while allowing just 99.8 PPG on 43% shooting. During the regular season, the Lakers scored 102.2 PPG (6th in NBA) on 45.8% FG (10th in league) despite a subpar 35.5% threes (19th in NBA). The defense has struggled for most of the season though, allowing 101.0 PPG (9th-worst in NBA) on 45.3% FG (14th in league) and 35.7% threes (also 14th in NBA). Without SG Kobe Bryant (27.3 PPG) in the lineup, C Dwight Howard (17.1 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 2.4 BPG) and PF Pau Gasol (13.7 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 4.1 APG) have been carrying this team on their large shoulders. Howard has averaged 22.5 PPG on 63% FG and 13.0 RPG in his past four games, including 16 points and 18 boards on Wednesday's 99-95 overtime win over Houston. Gasol was even better in that victory, recording a triple-double of 17 points, 20 rebounds and 11 assists. That increased his April numbers to 17.5 PPG (51% FG), 12.1 RPG and 6.6 APG in eight games this month. Howard has also thrived against the Spurs this season, tallying 13 points and 15 boards in the Nov. 13 home loss, and then producing 26 points, 17 rebounds and three blocks in Sunday's win. Gasol has shot horribly in this series, making 3-of-10 shots in the November meeting, and producing an abysmal 3-for-17 night on Sunday, but he has pulled down 13.0 RPG in the two games versus the Spurs. SF Metta World Peace (12.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG) is slowly regaining his form after being out with a torn meniscus. He's made just 35% FG for 7.0 PPG in 21.2 MPG in the past five games, but had his highest-scoring output since returning with 12 points on Wednesday. With SG Steve Nash (12.7 PPG, 6.7 APG) having missed eight straight games with a hamstring injury, and listed as questionable for the series opener, PG Steve Blake (7.3 PPG, 3.8 APG) could once again start in his place. Blake has been on a scoring surge over his past three contests with 20.3 PPG (13-of-14 FT) and 5.3 APG. He contributed 24 points, seven rebounds, seven assists and just one turnover in the win over Houston. PF Antawn Jamison (9.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG) has 15.5 PPG and 5.0 RPG in his past two games, but SG Jodie Meeks (7.9 PPG) has been ice-cold in the past four contests, scoring just 5.8 PPG on 7-of-27 shooting (26%). Both players will need to look for their offense in this series, especially with Bryant sidelined and Nash questionable.

San Antonio is a great offensive team, scoring 103.0 PPG (4th in NBA) on 48.1% FG (2nd in league) and 37.6% threes (4th in NBA). The club leads the NBA in assists (25.1 APG) and ranks second in Ast/TO ratio (1.78). Defensively, the Spurs are also pretty strong, giving up only 96.6 PPG (11th in NBA) on 44.2% FG (8th in league) and 35.3% threes (12th in NBA). Their 8.5 steals per game rank 6th-best in the league. The team continues to be led by PG Tony Parker (20.3 PPG, 7.6 APG) and PF Tim Duncan (17.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 2.7 BPG). Parker has been bothered with neck and ankle injuries this month, and has shot horribly in his past two games, making just 4-of-20 shots, but has made up for it with 16 assists and just six turnovers. Parker has also struggled a bit versus L.A. this season with 15.7 PPG on 43% FG, but has also notched 7.0 APG. Duncan has a well-rounded stat line of 16.3 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 4.3 APG and 3.7 BPG in three meetings with the Lakers this season, which includes 23 points, 10 boards, four assists and two blocks in Sunday's loss. Duncan also contributed a double-double in the regular-season finale versus Minnesota with 17 points and 14 rebounds. SG Manu Ginobili (11.9 PPG, 4.6 APG) finally returned to the court on Wednesday for the first time since March 29, but he was understandably rusty and scored just two points on 1-of-4 shooting (0-for-2 threes) in 12 minutes of action. Ginobili has also shot horribly against L.A. this season, making just 32% FG leading to 11.0 PPG. SF Kawhi Leonard (11.9 PPG, 6.0 RPG) has been bothered by a knee injury, which is why he's produced just 6.0 PPG and 5.0 RPG in the past two games. He's also been subpar against the great size of the Lakers this season with 8.7 PPG and 4.7 RPG. C Tiago Splitter (10.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG) will be tasked with stopping Howard down low, but despite Howard's presence in the paint, he's still averaged a double-double against L.A. this season with 11.3 PPG and 11.0 RPG in the three games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thunder Look to Take Down Rockets on Sunday

Western Conference Playoffs First Round - Game 1
Tip-off: Sunday, 9:30 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma City -10, Total: 213

Oklahoma City begins its defense of the Western Conference title when it hosts Houston for Game 1 of their first-round series on Sunday night.

The Rockets lost four of their final six games (1-5 ATS), capped off by a 99-95 overtime loss at the L.A. Lakers on Wednesday, to fall to the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference. The Thunder finished the season strong, winning 10 of their final 13 games (8-5 ATS) to earn the top seed in the conference. Although Oklahoma City crushed the Rockets in the first two meetings this season, winning 120-98 at home on Nov. 28 and 124-94 at Toyota Center on Dec. 29, Houston got the last laugh with a 122-119 victory on Feb. 20. The Rockets struggled all season on the road though, producing a 16-25 SU record (17-23-1 ATS, 43%) while allowing 103.9 PPG to host teams. The Thunder scored a hefty 108.5 PPG at home this season, tallying a 34-7 SU record (27-14 ATS, 66%) at Chesapeake Energy Arena.

Houston's offense has been outstanding all season with 106.0 PPG (2nd in NBA) on 46.1% FG and 36.6% three-pointers (both 9th-best in league), knocking down 10.6 threes per game (2nd in NBA). Defensively, this team really struggles to stop opponents, allowing 102.5 PPG (3rd-worst in league) on 45.4% FG (14th-worst in NBA) and 36.7% threes (9th-worst in league). The Rockets generate 8.3 SPG (9th in NBA), but have the fifth-worst Ast/TO ratio in the league (1.47), as they commit a NBA-worst 15.8 TOPG. They do hit the glass pretty well though, with a +1.8 RPG margin (11th in league). SG James Harden (25.9 PPG, 5.8 APG) continues to carry the offense, and finished the season with 27.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG and 5.2 APG in his final five games. He pumped in 29.3 PPG (44% FG) and 4.0 RPG in three meetings with the Thunder this season. Harden had a great 2012 postseason when he played with Oklahoma City, scoring 16.3 PPG on 41% threes with 5.1 RPG and 3.4 APG. SF Chandler Parsons (15.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.5 APG) appears to be over his calf injury that kept him out of action at the end of last week. He's logged 42.5 MPG in the past two contests, producing a healthy 23.5 PPG on 58% FG (4-of-11 threes) with 5.0 APG and 4.0 RPG. He hasn't been particularly sharp in two games versus Oklahoma City though, scoring just 13.5 PPG on 39% FG with 5.0 RPG and 4.5 APG. PG Jeremy Lin (13.4 PPG, 6.1 APG) will be making his postseason debut on Sunday, as he was unable to play for New York in the 2012 playoffs because of an injury. Lin's confidence should be pretty high after putting together a strong month of April with 17.3 PPG (44% FG, 36% threes), 6.9 APG and a 2.70 Ast/TO ratio. He'll have his hands full with Russell Westbrook, but Lin's offense has been strong in the season series with the Thunder where he has 14.0 PPG (49% FG) and 7.3 APG. C Omer Asik (10.1 PPG, 11.7 RPG) has averaged a double-double versus Oklahoma City with exactly 10.0 PPG and 10.0 RPG, and he's been a rebounding machine all month with 12.4 RPG in nine April games.

Like Houston, Oklahoma City possesses an outstanding offense, scoring 105.7 PPG (3rd in NBA) on a remarkable shooting accuracy of 48.1% FG (3rd in league) and 37.7% threes (also 3rd in NBA). The Thunder also have a strong defense that surrenders 96.5 PPG (10th in league) allowing a paltry 42.5% FG clip (2nd-best in NBA) and 34.6% threes (6th-best in league). And also similar to the Rockets, Oklahoma City commits a ton of turnovers (14.6 TOPG, 5th-most in NBA), but does a nice job of cleaning the glass with a +2.9 RPG margin (5th-best in league). SF Kevin Durant (28.1 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 4.6 APG) has been outstanding in his playoff career with 28.1 PPG (47% FG), 7.7 RPG and 3.2 APG over 43 career postseason games. He enters his fourth playoff season red-hot, averaging 26.1 PPG (57% FG, 53% threes), 7.9 RPG and 6.4 APG in seven April games. He also had his way against Houston this season with 26.3 PPG (47% FG), 7.0 RPG and 5.7 APG. PG Russell Westbrook (23.2 PPG, 7.4 APG, 5.2 RPG) has been even better in the season series with 23.3 PPG, 8.3 APG and 7.7 RPG in the three meetings. Even with logging a mere seven minutes in a meaningless regular-season finale against the Bucks, Westbrook still averaged 23.6 PPG, 6.0 APG and 4.9 RPG in April. PF Serge Ibaka (13.2 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 3.03 BPG) has been very consistent all month, scoring in double-figures in the first seven games of April before logging just eight minutes on Wednesday. He's been outstanding versus the Rockets this season with 16.0 PPG (65% FG), 8.7 RPG and 4.0 blocks per contest. SG Kevin Martin (14.0 PPG) has been dealing with a minor back injury, but he's probable to play against his former team on Sunday. He didn't shoot very well against Houston this season (41.5% FG), but still scored 17.0 PPG in the three meetings. Martin hasn't played since April 11, but he was certainly on the mark that night, scoring 23 points in just 19 minutes, hitting 8-of-10 shots and 4-of-5 threes.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pacers host Hawks in 1st-Round Series on Sunday

Eastern Conference Playoffs First Round - Game 1
Tip-off: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Indiana -6.5, Total: 185

Atlanta travels to Indiana on Sunday afternoon for Game 1 of their first round playoff series with the Pacers, who were 30-11 at home during the regular season.

Despite Indiana's excellent SU record at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, the team was just 22-19 ATS at home. The Hawks were 19-22 SU, but 23-18 ATS (56%), on thee road this season. The home team won all four games in the season series with each team going 2-2 ATS against one another.The Pacers won the last meeting at home on March 25 by a 100-94 score behind 17 points,13 rebounds and three blocks from C Roy Hibbert. Both teams have had their share of injuries this season, but it appears that both of Atlanta's top two players -- C Al Horford (shoulder) and PF Josh Smith (knee) -- will start in Saturday's game. The Hawks enter the playoffs having lost five of its final seven games SU and posting a 2-8 ATS mark in its final 10 contests. The Pacers also fizzled down the stretch with six straight ATS defeats to end the season, winning just one of those games outright, a 5-point win over lowly Cleveland.

The success of the Hawks this series is going to come down to the play of C Al Horford in the post. Horford missed three of the final five games for Atlanta with a shoulder injury, but in the two games he did play, he averaged 17.0 PPG (53% FG), 13.0 RPG and 4.5 APG. PF Josh Smith will also need to play at a high level if the Hawks are going to win this series. Smith averaged 19.3 PPG (60% FG) and 7.0 RPG over the final three regular-season games. His numbers would have been better, but he only played 13 minutes on Tuesday against the Raptors. PG Jeff Teague has a very crucial matchup with George Hill in this series and Teague will need to hang with him if the Hawks will stick around in the series. Teague averaged 9.0 APG and just 1.5 TOPG over his past four games. If he can take care of the ball like that, then the Hawks will be a tough team to beat.

Pacers SF Paul George is going to have to play better for the Pacers if they are going to advance in the Eastern Conference. George missed the last game with a strained abdomen, and scored just 11.5 PPG on 28.6% shooting in his prior four games. He averaged 17.4 PPG on 41.9% shooting from the field during the regular season, and was especially strong against the Hawks with 18.3 PPG (45% FG), 6.8 RPG and 4.5 APG in the four meetings. Luckily for the Pacers, their frontcourt of PF David West and C Roy Hibbert has been playing really well to end the season. West also sat out the final game (rest), but had averaged 17.5 PPG (61% FG) and 9.0 RPG in his past four contests. West torched the Hawks this season for 21.3 PPG (53% FG) and 5.7 RPG in the three games he played (sat one out with injury). Hibbert, who struggled all season, finished the year strong with 18 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks on April 12 against the Nets and 25 points and 10 rebounds on April 6 against the Wizards. Hibbert has been inconsistent this season, but he rebounded and defended well down the stretch, and as long as he is doing that he can really help Indiana in a number of ways.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sizzling-Hot Heat Begin Title Defense Sunday vs. Bucks

Eastern Conference Playoffs First Round - Game 1
Tip-off: Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -13, Total: 199

Slumping Milwaukee travels to heavily-favored Miami, who it beat just once in four attempts this season, when the teams open their first-round playoff series on Sunday night.

The Bucks enter this series with a 4-12 SU mark (6-10 ATS) in their past 16 games, while the top-seeded Heat won each of their final eight games of the regular season, going 7-1 ATS. Miami had a magical season, at one point winning 27 straight games, but a new season starts on Sunday. The club was 3-1 SU against Milwaukee this season, but just 2-2 ATS. In the past two games played between the two, however, the Heat won and covered with a 13-point road win on March 15 and 94-83 home victory on April 9. The Bucks were a winning wager on the road this season at 21-20 ATS, but were only 17-24 SU, including nine losses in their final 10 away games. Miami was an impressive 37-4 SU at AmericanAirlines Arena, but just 22-19 ATS in home games.

Milwaukee enters the playoffs on a very bad skid, losing seven of its final nine games, with their only three wins coming over Toronto and at Oklahoma City which was resting all of its star players in a meaningless game. The Bucks are going to be relying heavily on the scoring of SG Monta Ellis who will be matched up with Dwyane Wade over the course of the series. Ellis has put up some big numbers lately. He scored 38 points against the Nuggets on Monday, and on April 12 he had 27 points, 17 assists and eight rebounds in a loss to the Hawks. Ellis is playing well offensively, but his offense is not coming in the flow of a winning team. PG Brandon Jennings will be rusty entering the series after missing two of the final five games and playing only 19.3 MPG in the three games he did suit up for. The health of C Larry Sanders is a major concern for the Bucks too. Sanders missed the past four games for Milwaukee and the club will need his shot-blocking (2.8 BPG) to have any chance at stopping Miami's star players at the rim.

Miami ended the regular season with an amazing 37-2 SU record in its final 39 games. SF LeBron James has been dominant all season and is heading towards another MVP Award after averaging 26.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 7.3 APG and 1.7 SPG. In the season series with Milwaukee, James was pretty much unstoppable with 27.5 PPG, 7.3 APG and 8.3 RPG in the four meetings. PF Chris Bosh will provide the Heat with the most effective inside scorer in the series, and he too is coming off of a very efficient regular season in which he averaged 16.6 PPG (54% FG), 6.8 RPG and 1.4 BPG. SG Dwyane Wade’s matchup with Monta Ellis will be key in this series, but if Wade plays anything like he did the second half of the season, then he should be able to win the matchup easily. Wade averaged 21.2 PPG (52% FG), 5.1 APG and 5.0 RPG for the season and dropped 24.0 PPG (51% FG), 5.7 APG and 5.3 RPG in three games versus Milwaukee. Wade’s health is always a concern for Miami, but he appears to be 100 percent after scoring 21 points to go along with 10 assists against Orlando on Wednesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Weather Report: Windy in Chicago

Relatively favorable conditions are expected throughout the bigs on Sunday.

Here is a look at the notable weather:

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (-145, 8.5)

Site: U.S. Cellular Field

Forecasts call for mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low-50s at first pitch. Winds will blow in from right field at 17 mph. The under was 5-2 in 2012 when winds blew in from right field at U.S. Cellular.

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (-162, 10)

Site: Rangers Ballpark

Mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the high-60s. Winds will blow in from right field at 10 mph.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's Streaking & Slumping Starting Pitchers

Major league pitchers have enough starts under their belts to pick out which arms are streaking and slumping to start the season. Each day we’ll look at the hottest and coldest pitchers taking the mound.

Streaking

Doug Fister, Detroit Tigers (3-0, 2.70 ERA)

Fister tossed seven strong innings last time out against the Seattle Mariners to pick up his third win in as many starts. But bettors beware: The righty is 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 11 2/3 career innings at Angel Stadium.

Kris Medlen, Atlanta Braves (1-1, 1.42 ERA)

Medlen is picking up right where he left off last season. The right-hander threw 73 of his 98 pitches for strikes in his last start against the Kansas City Royals and is commanding both sides of the plate. Medlen is the owner of a sparkling 1.94 ERA in 21 career appearances in April.

Slumping

Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland Indians (0-2, 11.25 ERA)

Jimenez has been rocked in back-to-back starts for seven earned runs. The righty has struggled with his control early on, walking eight batters in his last six innings pitched. Jimenez owns a career 1.88 ERA against the Astros – his best mark against any major league club.

Dillon Gee, New York Mets (0-3, 8.36 ERA)

Gee has traditionally pitched poor in cold weather because his “fingertips get numb in cold weather.” Temperatures are expected to be in the high-40s for first pitch at Citi Field and he has been rocked in his two previous starts at cold April venues (Philadelphia, Colorado).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday Night Baseball: Cardinals at Phillies
by Steve Merril

The Cardinals and Phillies take center stage on Sunday Night Baseball.

St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies (+104, 8.5)

GO WEST YOUNG MAN

Jake Westbrook's pristine start to the season was saved by the weather after his last outing against the Pirates was rained out; the righty gave up four early runs to Pittsburgh. Westbrook has not allowed an "official" earned run this season. He is just 1-1, though, as the unearned run he allowed against the Giants ultimately led to a loss. The Cardinals' starter faced the Phillies twice last season, getting rocked at home as he gave up six runs on May 24. He bounced back on August 11 against Philadelphia, allowing only a single run on four hits in just over seven innings of work.

CAN KENDRICK GET IT DONE?

Kyle Kendrick has been solid this season aside from his first start where he allowed five runs and eight hits in just over five innings pitched against the Royals. He followed that up with two solid outings against the Mets and Reds where he allowed two runs and 10 hits total. One of Kendrick's best starts last season came in St. Louis on May 26. He tossed a complete-game shutout, yielding seven hits.

INJURY REPORT

The Cardinals and Phillies are both almost at full strength. St. Louis is without Rafael Furcal who underwent Tommy John surgery back in March. The Cardinals are also without pitchers Chris Carpenter and Jason Motte. Carpenter is dealing with a nerve condition in his throwing hand, arm, and shoulder. Motte's status is unknown as he deals with a torn ligament.

On the Philadelphia side, Ryan Howard is day-to-day with a tight right groin injury. Catcher Carlos Ruiz is almost done with his 25-game suspension, which will help a lineup that has struggled scoring at times. John Lannan is on the DL with a knee injury while Delmon Young is close to recovering from microfracture surgery on his ankle.

TRENDS

* The over is 5-2 in the Cardinals’ last seven Sunday games.
* Cardinals are 5-0 in Westbrook's last five road starts vs. a team with a losing record

* Phillies are 5-2 in Kendrick’s last seven home starts
* The under is 9-3-1 in Kendrick’s last 13 starts on grass.

HITTERS TO WATCH

Michael Young 11-for-27 vs. Westbrook
Jimmy Rollins 6-for-15 vs. Westbrook
Matt Holliday 2-for-18 vs. Kendrick
Carlos Beltran 7-for-26 vs. Kendrick

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NASCAR betting: STP 400 preview

The NASCAR Sprint Cup series shifts to Kansas this weekend for the STP 400 at Kansas Speedway.

Denny Hamlin won the spring 2012 event at the 1.5-mile track, but will miss this year's spring event after hurting his back in the race at Auto Club Speedway earlier this season.

Favorite: Jimmie Johnson (+600)

Johnson has two wins, five top-fives, 11 top-10s and three poles in 13 career starts at Kansas Speedway. He ranks first out of 50 drivers with an average place of 7.2 at KS over the last eight seasons.

Live dog: Tony Stewart (+2,000)

Stewart has two wins, six top-fives and nine top-10s in 14 starts at Kansas Speedway with an average finish of 10.4.

Long shot: Mark Martin (+4,000)

Martin has one win, two top-fives, five top-10s and one pole in 14 starts at this track. He ranks sixth out of 50 drivers with an average place of 12.3 at Kansas over the past eight seasons.

Key stat: No active driver has scored his or her first Cup race win or pole at Kansas.

Notable quotable:

"I've lived through it and good teams survive, good teams and drivers will always survive, but it'll put a lot of stress in their world," Johnson said. "We'll see how they respond to it, but once they get some normalcy back to their life, they'll be at the front of the pack." Jimmie Johnson on last weekend’s Penske incident.

Odds to win the STP 400 courtesy of JustBet:

Jimmie Johnson 6-1
Greg Biffle 6-1
Kyle Busch 7-1
Kasey Kahne 8-1
Carl Edwards 8-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 8-1
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Matt Kenseth 8-1
Jeff Gordon 12-1
Kevin Harvick 15-1
Clint Bowyer 15-1
Martin Truex Jr. 15-1
Tony Stewart 20-1
Joey Logano 25-1
Brian Vickers 25-1
Aric Almirola 40-1
Mark Martin 40-1
Kurt Busch 40-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 60-1
Ryan Newman 60-1
Jamie McMurray 75-1
Marcos Ambrose 75-1
Paul Menard 75-1
Elliott Sadler 100-1
Juan Montoya 100-1
Jeff Burton 200-1
Danica Patrick 300-1
Casey Mears 300-1
Regan Smith 300-1
Field 50-1