4-21-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE GAVAZZI

Milwaukee at Miami (-13) 7:00 PM ET

5* Miami -13
Seldom lay double digits in the Playoffs but this has all the earmarks of a 4 game blowout sweep. Milwaukee is looking like road kill. The Bucs finished the season on negative slides of 4-12 and 1-5 SU. They also finished 6-14 ATS including 2-8 ATS on the road. Miami went 3-1 in the series this year with no victory by more than 13 points including wins of 9 and 7 on this court. But veteran Playoff teams at home in Game #1 of Round #1 hold a solid and significant advantage against teams who did not appear in the Playoffs last season. Miami enters on a run of 35-1 SU but just 2-8 ATS -10+ on this court of late. But that mark could be well offset by the fact Miami was an amazing 10-3 ATS as HF in the Playoffs last year. Figure Milwaukee to be a much better play in Game #2 of this series.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Ed Meyer MLB Money Line Sun, 04/21/13 - 3:35 PM

double-dime bet -928 ANA (-110) vs 927 DET

Analysis:
The reason why this line is close to pickem is that Doug Fister has produced two straight quality start wins, beating the Jays 11-1 and the Mariners 6-2. However, the linesmakers have vastly over-estimated the Tigers in this spot. Detroit is a bankroll-crushing 0-17 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem and their starter has produced quality start wins in each of his last two outings!

So, 0-17 when they have a hot pitcher and the linesmaker rates the game close to a toss up. This includes the first game of this series, when the Angels hammered Sanchez and won 8-1.

LA's offense is "hitting on all cylinders" and they are very tough to slow down in this spot. The Halos are a reliable 10-0 as a favorite when they are off a five-plus run win in which they hit at least one home run.

Note that the Angels have scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in this spot.

Finally, the Angels are 9-0 as a home favorite when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not a series opener.

Note that this was active yesterday, when they Angels won 10-0.

If Fister wins here, we tip our hat. The 6-10 Angels are the side on which to be, as they still have a lot of work to do.

MTi's FORECAST: LA ANGELS 5 Detroit 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee had the splits on Saturday winning with the Rays -$120/A's and losing with the Fightin Philies -$145/Cardinals.

For Sunday "Mr Chalk" is on the "Chalkest" game on the board the Reds -$230/Marlins.

"Mr Chalk" is 13-6 + $432 for the 2013 MLB Regular Season.


As an extra bonus in game 1 of the NBA 1st round playoffs Ben lee likes the Spurs -9/Lakers and the Heat -13/Bucks.

Ben lee won with the Nets -5/Bulls on Saturday and is 1-0 +$100 in the Nba Playoffs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

3* atl hawks

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ack Jones MLB*
TOP PLAYS 2-4
15* 15-25

They are bought and paid for so I'll keep posting, but i'm losing what I made on his NBA and NCAAB.

JACK JONES

MLB Baseball Premium Picks

MLB | Apr 21 '13 (1:05p) NYY YANKEES vs Toronto Blue Jays	NYY YANKEES +135 at SIA
15* AL East PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees +135 Rarely will you ever get the New York Yankees as this big of an underdog against anyone. I'll take full advantage Sunday and back them as they look to improve to 11-6 with a victory Sunday. Josh Johnson has no business being this heavily favored Sunday. The right-hander is 0-1 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.814 WHIP through three starts this season. Ivan Nova is 3-1 with a 3.82 ERA in six career starts against Toronto. The Blue Jays are 6-23 (-17.0 Units) against the money line vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. Toronto is 1-7 (-9.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Bet the Yankees Sunday.

MLB | Apr 21 '13 (1:10p) Washington Nationals vs New York Mets	New York Mets +130 at SIA
15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets +130 The New York Mets are highly motivated to beat the 2012 NL East champion Washington Nationals in this series. I look for them to take Game 3 and take the series Sunday. Dillon Gee is 3-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in six career starts against Washington. This is certainly one team he enjoys facing. Washington is 6-28 (-19.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a game they hit 4 or more home runs since 1997. Bet the Mets Sunday.

MLB | Apr 21 '13 (2:10p) Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	Chicago Cubs +127 at BetOnline
15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +127 After losing the first two games of this series to Milwaukee, I look for the Chicago Cubs to take Game 3 and salvage it. I like the Cubs' chances of doing some damage against Brewers' starter Wily Peralta. He is 0-1 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.687 WHIP over three starts this season. Milwaukee is 12-22 (-15.5 Units) against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the Cubs Sunday.

MLB | Apr 21 '13 (2:10p) Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	Minnesota Twins +140 at SIA
15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +140 The Minnesota Twins are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Chicago White Sox Sunday. They come in having won three straight and playing with a lot of confidence because of it. Gavin Floyd has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers. Floyd is 0-3 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.852 WHIP through three starts this season, and 6-11 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.586 WHIP in 18 career starts against Minnesota. Minnesota is 7-1 (+9.2 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs over the last 2 seasons. Floyd is 28-48 (-25.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 since 1997. Take the Twins Sunday.

MLB | Apr 21 '13 (4:05p) San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres +130 at SIA

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres +130 The San Diego Padres get the call Sunday as a nice-sized road underdog to the San Francisco Giants. After losing the first two games of this series, the Padres are hungry for a victory in Game 3. I like their chances of picking up a win with Eric Stults on the mound. Stults is 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA through three starts this season. Barry Zito is overvalued here, and he's 2-1 with a 4.86 ERA on the year. Stults is 9-3 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Stults is 8-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest since 1997. Roll with the Padres Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Atlanta at Indiana (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Indiana -7 (-110)

Home court has been huge when these teams meet. The teams split four meetings in the regular season, with each holding home court and the home team is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Both teams struggled down the stretch, but Indiana has the kind of defense and rebounding you need up front while the Hawks have plenty of flaws. The Hawks went 19-22 on the road including a setback at Indiana on March 25 when they got out-rebounded 49-38. The Hawks are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games vs. a team with a winning record and on a 2-8 ATS run overall. Indiana is great at home and a key addition has been the increased role of shooting guard Lance Stephenson. He has given the team a tenacious perimeter defender and a solid shooting option on the wing. Stephenson missed the last meeting with the Hawks, but collected 14 points and six rebounds in a 114-103 win over them on Feb. 5. Indiana has a huge frontcourt and a dominate rebounding team, while the Hawks rank 23rd in rebounding in the NBA. The Pacers are 9-4 ATS playing on three or more days rest, plus the favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings between these teams. Play the Pacers in Game 1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = St Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies - PHILLIES TO WIN (+106)
Listed Pitchers: Westbrook vs Kendrick
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.12 units)

Tonight the 10-7 Cardinals will face off with the 7-11 Phillies in the Sunday Night prime time game. The Cardinals ar 6-5 on the road while the Phillies are 4-5 at home. This is a 4 game series and so far the Cardinals have taken 2 of 3 winning 4-3 and 5-0 last night, while the Phillies won 8-2 on Friday. The Cardinals will send Jake Westbrook to the mound who is 1-1 on the season with a 0.00 ERA (he allowed an unearned run in his first start that gave him the loss). Although his 0.00 ERA looks great he has walked 10 batters while striking out just 4. He also pitched on Tuesday and gave up 4 earned runs against Pittsburgh, but since the game was rained out those don't count towards his numbers. On the other hand we have Kyle Kendrick going for Philadelphia. Kendrick is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA on the year, and his numbers are getting better with every start. He allowed 5 earned runs in 5.2 innings of work in his first start, but then allowed just 2 earned runs over 6 innings and 0 earned runs and just 2 hits over 7 innings in his past two. Note that the Cardinals are just 1-4 in Westbrook's last 5 starts, while the Phillies are 5-2 in Kendrick's last 7 home starts. They are also 5-2 in their last 7 as a home underdog and 6-2 in Kendrick's last 8 starts as an underdog. Kendrick has had success against St Louis as the Phillies are 5-1 in his last 6 starts vs the Cards. I think the pitching match up favors the Phillies and I like the value we have on them at +106.

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Bryan Rosica

50 dimer on houston +10

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Anthony Redd-
75 Dime Houston Rockets +10

Craig Davis-
50 Dime Oklahoma City -10

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Tim Donaghy

Atlanta vs Indy (Total 185) OVER
LA Lakers/San Antonio OVER 190.5
Houston/Oklahoma City UNDER 213.5

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Jimmy Boyd 4/21 & Updated Records

5* (NBA) San Antonio Spurs -8

4* (NBA) Spurs/Lakers UNDER 190.5
4* (NBA) Indiana Pacers -6.5
4* (MLB) Pittsburgh Pirates ML +167

3* (MLB) A's/Rays UNDER 8
3* (MLB) Arizona Diamondbacks ML +130

NBA TOTAL 143-147 -22 Units
30-23
37-29
76-95

MLB TOTAL 15-26 -47 Units
1-4
6-5
8-17

CBB TOTAL FINAL 163-139 +25 Units
19-22
39-37
105-80

April TOTAL 35-50 -59 Units
7-7
10-10
18-33

he has been ice cold!!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Landau MLB Sunday:
MIL - 130 ..... COL -125 ..... PHI +105 ..... CSOX -138

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Marco D. Betting 1st Look

MLB Detroit ML

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Larry Ness

10 * pacers

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Chris Jordan

Interleague Mismatch

300♦ LINE MISTAKE

Baltimore Orioles