4-25-13

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Hondo

10 units on Reds w/Arroyo

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Cappers Access

Heat -7.5
Phillies(RL) -1.5(+129)
W.Sox -130

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Kyle Hunter 3* LAD,,,,, Cubs Un 7.5

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ANDRE GOMES

NBA - 737 Los Angeles Clippers @ 738 Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Line: 176 points
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) Under 180



On the Game 2 of this series, Memphis gave the Clippers a real fight and if it wasn't for an amazing last second shot by Chris Paul and this game would have gone into overtime. Now on Game 3, I believe Memphis's adjustments will be performed into slowing down the game pace, as that will not only allow their starters to be fresher down the stretch, as it will also stop the Clippers's second unit to pound them with quick transitions. After the Game 1 had a 82.3 pace, Game 2 was faster with a 88.6 pace. Memphis actually had 19 transition plays, while the Clippers had just 13! The Grizzlies were very competitive when the starters of both teams were on the court, as in fact all Memphis's starters ended the game with positive team +/- points, but this style of pushing up the pace against the Clippers's second unit is a pure suicide for the Grizzlies, as with Eric Bledsoe leading the team, the Clippers excel in playing up and down the court, while they struggle on halfcourt sets.

Memphis's defense was excellent in Game 2. They defended pretty well the Clippers's 3-point attempts (2-15), after allowing 7 treys in Game 1. The Grizzlies also rebounded much better on Game 2, in comparison with the previous game. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are forced to defend pick and rolls away from the basket and this prevents them from grabbing the defensive boards, so the guards have to do it and Tony Allen was superb in that with 9 defensive rebounds. I expect this trend of good defense from the Grizzlies will continue on Game 3, with them being even more physical, as after all they are now playing at home and I even believe the referees will allow this game into being a grind out contest.

The Grizzlies on half court has problems in scoring due to the Clippers's frontcourt size and they had just 16 assists in Game 2, despite their two guards Mike Conley and Tony Allen having good shooting numbers with a combined of 15-27 FG! Conley was great on scoring off pick and rolls, but I expect the Clippers to make some adjustments on this area for Game 3. With both teams struggling to score from the outside, I expect this game to be played at a slower pace than Game 2, but with similar offensive rates. Therefore, I see this game having around 174/176 points, so we have enough edge to take the Under in here.

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NHL

Thursday, April 25

Home dogs bringing huge profits for NHL bettors

Home underdogs have been a hot play for bettors over the last nine days in the NHL. The $100 bettor would be up more than $1,036 when taking the home underdog since April 16.

Home dogs are 12-5 since that date and went 5-0 Tuesday night before a 1-1 record Wednesday. The New Jersey Devils, Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, Philadelphia Flyers and Minnesota Wild all cashed in for bettors Tuesday. Tampa Bay paid out as a +102 home pup versus Toronto Wednesday.

Thursday's schedule presents two opportunities for hockey bettors to continue to cash in on home underdogs. New Jersey is a small home pup hosting the Pittsburgh Penguins and Carolina is a +129 home dog against the New York Rangers.

The Hurricanes came up big as +126 home underdogs in a 4-3 shootout win versus the New York Islanders Tuesday. The Devils also cashed in at plus money at home in their last outing, edging the Montreal Canadiens 3-2 as +115 underdogs Tuesday.

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MLB

Thursday, April 25

MLB bettors - beware of these burnt-out bullpens

Plenty of MLB clubs had to dig deep into their bullpens Wednesday with four games needing extra innings. That could leave those teams dangerously thin on relievers if their Thursday starters get into trouble.

Here’s a look at the teams involved in those extra-inning affairs and how their pitching staff stacks up versus Thursday’s opponent:

Toronto Blue Jays (+130 vs. New York Yankees)

The Blue Jays needed 11 innings to get by Baltimore Wednesday, going through four relievers in the process after starter Brandon Morrow lasted 6 1/3 innings. Aaron Loup, who blew a three-run lead in the seventh, Darren Oliver, Esmil Rogers and Casey Janssen all saw action out of the pen.

Toronto goes with lefty Mark Buehrle, who went seven solid innings vs. the Yankees in his most recent start but had Loup spoil the day in a 5-3 loss last Saturday. The Blue Jays bullpen has a 3.08 collective ERA and a 4-6 record in 22 games.

Baltimore Orioles (+113 at Oakland A’s)

The Orioles went five deep into the bullpen Wednesday after starter Josh Stinson lasted just under six innings versus Toronto. Tommy Hunter, Darren O'Day, Troy Patton and Jim Johnson all worked at least one inning while Brian Matusz threw just three pitches in the extra-innings loss.

Baltimore has one of the better bullpens in the bigs, posting a 2.44 ERA. The O’s handed the ball to Jason Hammel, who has gone at least six innings in each of his four starts this season.

Colorado Rockies (+112 at Arizona Diamondbacks)

The Rockies took a 6-5 extra-innings thrilling over the Atlanta Braves (who are off Thursday) Wednesday, using up four relievers over those 12 innings. Colorado looked to Adam Ottavino, Rex Brothers, Rafael Betancourt and Matt Belisle out of the bullpen. Ottavino and Belisle each put in two innings of work for the win.

Jorge De La Rosa gets the nod for the series opener at Arizona. The lefty has worked six inning in each of his last three starts, allowing just three runs total – including back-to-back scoreless efforts – in that span.

Arizona Diamondbacks (-121 vs. Colorado Rockies)

The Diamondbacks could also be depleted in the bullpen Thursday after some overtime versus the San Francisco Giants. Arizona switched up four different relievers in the 3-2 road win, calling out Brad Ziegler, Heath Bell, David Hernandez and Matt Reynolds.

The D-backs bullpen owns a 2.58 ERA – third lowest in the National League. Arizona goes with right-hander Trevor Cahill versus the Rockies Thursday. He’s been solid in his last two starts, pitching seven innings in each while giving up just three runs on 12 total hits.

Los Angeles Dodgers (-115 at New York Mets)

The Dodgers lost to the Mets on a walk-off Grand Slam in the 10th inning Wednesday and burned through a big chunk of bullpen in the process. Los Angeles used J.P. Howell, Ronald Belisario, Kenley Jansen, Brandon League and Josh Wall over the final five innings, giving up a one-run lead in the ninth.

The Dodgers go with rookie Hyun-Jin Ryu versus the Mets Thursday. He’s pitched at least six innings in all four starts. Los Angeles relievers combined for a 4.08 ERA and have two blown saves, including Wednesday’s, this year.

New York Mets (+106 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers)

New York needed four relievers to come back against the Dodgers Wednesday. The Mets leaned on LaTroy Hawkins, Scott Rice, Scott Atchison and Bobby Parnell out of the bullpen after starter Matt Harvey went six innings. New York’s bullpen lugs the second-highest ERA for a group of relievers in the majors at 5.13.

The Mets march Jeremy Hefner to the mound Thursday. He’s pitched just seven total innings in his last two starts and served as a reliever in last week’s 11-3 thrashing at the hands of the Rockies. Hefner is 0-2 with an ERA north of 7.00.

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NBA

Thursday, April 25

Milwaukee lost 17 of last 23 games; can they even win a game in series? Bucks upset Heat 104-85 at home Dec 29, forcing 20 turnovers (+15), but lost other five meetings by 7-13-11-23-12 points, with under 4-0-1 in last five series games. Bucks played better in Game 2, making 50% on night, holding Heat to 44.9%, but they got outscored 22-10 on foul line and are just 11-44 from arc themselves in series. Miami was 4-3 as road favorite in LY's playoffs; they lost first road game in three of four series they played in playoffs last spring.

Three of five Chicago-Brooklyn games this season were decided by 4 or less points; Nets shot 55.8% in Game 1, 35.4% in Game 2, as Brooklyn guards were 7-27 from floor. Other than Lopez, other Net starters made 10-37 form floor. Bulls do not shoot ball well, (28-45 from line, 5-20 on arc in series) but they defend like hell and are very well coached. Have to give coaching edge in series to Thobodeau. Nets won three of last four road games, with wins at Indiana/Boston. So far in playoffs, home teams are 9-7 vs spread, 5-3 in East; under is 8-7-1, 4-3-1 in East.

Clippers pulled out 93-91 win in Game 2, when their bench was +43 in game, Memphis bench -34; LA led both games by six at half, have made 9-34 from arc in series. Clips led Memphis 3-1 in LY's playoffs, wound up having to win Game 7 Im Memphis to advance, so Grizzlies are still alive here; they closed rebounding gap to 40-38 in Game 2, after it was 47-23 in Game 1. Clippers won five of six meetings vs Memphis this year, with wins here, by 26-4 points. Conley exploded for 28 points in Game 2; Memphis lost first two games despite getting to line 59 times, compared to 53 for the Clippers.

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"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee went 1-1 on Wednesday night winning with the White Sox -$120/Indians and losing with the Nationals -$158/Cardinals.

"Mr Chalk" has Np for Thursday.

"Mr Chalk" is 15-7 + $474 for the 2013 MLB Regular Season.


Ben lee lost game 2 of the NBA 1st round playoffs on Wednesday with the Lakers +8.5/Spurs.

For Thursday Ben lee likes the Grizzles -4/Clippers.

Ben lee is 4-2 +$180 for the NBA 1st round playoffs.

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WinSportsNow MLB 4/25

Phillies-175
Over 8 Mets
Marlins+105
Under 9 Dbacks
Over 8.5 Redsox
Yankees-140
Under 7 Whitesox
Athletics-120

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Fezzik
focus plays: Brooklyn, Memphis,

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Goodfella

double dime LA Dodgers ML

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Brooklyn at Chicago (8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Chicago -3.5 (-110) (risk 1.00 to win 0.91)

The Chicago Bulls looked out of sorts in Game One at Brooklyn. They regrouped quickly and came back, and within 2.5 hours they took the home-court advantage away from Brooklyn - something the Nets had worked all season. It is now a best of five series with Chicago now having the home-court advantage. The Bulls have certainly had the edge vs. Brooklyn this season, winning four of the six games, and both the games in Chicago. The Bulls have not played as well at home this season as they did a year ago, but that changed late in the season. Their last four home games vs. the Eastern Conference's winning teams happened to come against Miami, New York, Indiana, and this Brooklyn team. All four teams are seeded ahead of them, and they won all four of those games. The Bulls have now covered seven of their last nine vs. a winning team. Make the play on Chicago.

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Kevin
MLBPredictions /w writeup

2 UNIT = Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners - ANGELS TO WIN (-137)
Listed Pitchers: Richards vs Maurer
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.46 units)

The Angels lost two of three at home vs Texas to start the week after sweeping Detroit on the weekend. They are now 8-12 on the season. The Mariners dropped two straight to Houston and have gone just 2-7 over their last 9 games to fall to 8-15 on the season. Tonight the Angels will go with Garret Richards, who is in the rotation with Jared Weaver on the DL. Richards is 1-0 on the season in 6 total appearances with a 2.55 ERA. In his two starts he has pitched 13.1 innings of work giving up 4 earned runs. His latest start he went 7 innings against a tough Tigers line up giving up just 2 hits and 0 runs with 8 strikeouts and no walks. Brandon Maurer will pitch for Seattle and he is 1-3 with a 7.45 ERA over 4 starts this season. He started off with two rough starts, and then followed that up with two much improved starts where he went 1-1 allowing 4 earned runs over 12.2 innings of work. Take note that Seattle sits near the bottom of the league at 27th with a team OBA of .228 and a OBP of .292. The Angels are 2nd in team OBA at .277 with a .337 OBP. Although the Angels had a slow start to the season they’ve scored 42 runs over their last 7 games (6 runs per game). Compare that to Seattle who has scored just 17 runs over their last 7 games, and 7 of those came in one game. Note that the Angels are 8-3 in their last 11 meetings in Seattle and 41-19 in their last 60 meetings overall. This is a fairly even pitching match up looking at recent starts, but I give the edge to the Angels. Combine that with the lineup Los Angeles will put out and I think we’ve got good value here on the road team.

2 UNIT = Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins - UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-108)
Listed Pitchers: Jackson vs Slowey
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)

The 6-14 Cubs will take on the 5-16 Marlins over the weekend. Tonight’s game features Edwin Jackson on the mound for Chicago and Kevin Slowey for Miami. Jackson is 0-3 although he has pitched OK with a 4.84 ERA, .225 BA and 1.39 WHIP. Last year he was 10-11 with Washington with a 4.03 ERA and solid .243 OBA and 1.22 WHIP. His last start was his best as he went 6 innings against a hot Milwaukee team allowing just 4 hits and 1 earned run. Slowey has surprising pitched very well to start the season despite his 0-2 record. He has a 1.90 ERA, .261 OBA and 1.23 WHIP over 4 starts. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in a start this season. Note that the Cubs rank 26th in the MLB in team batting average, while Miami is dead last hitting just .221. These two teams are also 28th and 29th in OBP. Note that the Cubs are averaging 3.25 runs per game (27th) and the Marlins are averaging an awful 2.57 runs per game (30th). The UNDER is 4-1 in the Cubs last 5 overall, and 7-3 in their last 10 vs a right handed starter. The UNDER is also 12-4-1 in the Marlins last 17 home games dating back to last season, and 4-0 in all 4 of Slowey’s starts this year. Take the UNDER tonight in a battle between two struggling National League teams.

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From NBA Playoffs Best Bets
STATFOX SCOTT

MIAMI (733) at MILWAUKEE (734) 7 pm ET
Latest Line: Bucks +7; Total: 195.5

The Heat have punished teams like the Bucks, going 11-2 ATS on the road this season against clubs that give up an average of 99 or more points per game. Milwaukee, meanwhile is 2-11 ATS at home this season against opponents that make 36 percent or more of their three-point attempts. The Bucks went 15-25-1 ATS at home this season, so I don't expect them to benefit from the so-called home-court advantage. This looks like a third straight double-digit Miami win in this series.
PLAY ON: HEAT -7

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Montreal at Winnipeg (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 5.5 -110

It has been a great season in Montreal, at least up to the last six games. The Habs are just 1-5 in those six games, as the offense has managed just a total of 14 goals. Winnipeg has become an UNDER team over the second half of the season, as the Jets are 17-10-1 to the UNDER over their last 28 games. Montreal has been 4-1 to the UNDER in their last five vs. the Southeast, as well as 4-1 to the UNDER in their last five when facing an opponent that scored 5+ in their last game. The Jets have turned in a 14-6-1 mark to the UNDER in their last 21 on a day of rest, while the UNDER has ruled this series when played in Winnipeg at 11-4-1 in the last 16. This one stays UNDER the total.