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Totals 4 You Pro Basketball Selections for Friday, April 26th
2013 NBA Playoffs Round 1 Primetime Total of the Year!!!!!
San Antonio/Los Angeles under 188NBA Best Bets
New York/Boston under 182
Denver/Golden State under 212 1/2
Totals 4 You Major League Selections for Friday, April 26th
Friday Night American League Scoreboard Scorcher!!!!! Baltimore/Oakland over 7 1/2MLB Best Bets
Philadelphia/New York over 7 1/2
Pittsburgh/St Louis over 8 1/2
Texas/Minnesota over 8 1/2
Tampa Bay/Chicago over 7 1/2
100* Play New York +3 over Boston (NBA Top Play)
Starts at 8:00 PM EST
New York has covered the spread in 58 of the last 94 games when
playing as an underdog and they have also covered the spread in 25 of
the last 40 games when playing in the 2nd half of the season. New
York has covered the spread in 28 of the last 43 games coming off an
UNDER in their last game and they have also covered the spread in 21
of the last 31 games coming off a win by ten points or more.
100* Play San Antonio -5 over Los Angeles Lakers (NBA Top Play)
Starts at 10:30 PM EST
San Antonio has covered the spread in 75 of the last 129 games when
playing as a favorite and they have also covered the spread in 47 of
the last 78 games when playing in the 2nd half of the season. San
Antonio has covered the spread in 20 of the last 28 road games vs.
Pacific Division Opponents and they have covered the spread in 48 of
the last 76 games coming off an OVER the total in their last game.
100* Play Denver +1 over Golden State (NBA Top Play)
Starts at 10:30 PM EST
Denver has covered the spread in 71 of the last 122 road games and
they have also covered the spread in 70 of the last 121 games when
playing in the 2nd half of the season. Denver has covered the spread
in 19 of the last 23 games when the total posted is greater than 200
points and they have covered the spread in 48 of the last 78 games
when playing as a road underdog.
100* Take San Antonio -5 over Los Angeles Lakers (NBA TOP PLAY)
San Antonio has won 56 of the last 72 games when playing as a favorite
and they have also won 21 of the last 26 games when playing their 2nd
game in five days. San Antonio has won 27 of the last 36 games after
covering the spread in two of the last three games and they are
averaging 102 points a game this season.
100* Take St. Louis -190 over Pittsburgh (MLB TOP PLAY)
Jonathan Sanchez has lost 13 of the last 16 games when the total
posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he has lost 19 of the last 24
games when pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher. Jonathan
Sanchez is 0-2 this season with an ERA of 11.12.
100* Take Kansas City -165 over Cleveland (MLB TOP PLAY)
Kansas City has won 6 of the last 8 games coming off three or more
road games and they have also won 4 consecutive games when the total
posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. Ervin Santana has won 51 of the
last 83 games vs. division opponents and he is 2-0 over the last three
starts with an ERA of 1.57.
100* Take Boston -250 over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)
Houston has lost 37 of the last 54 games when playing on a Friday and
they have also lost 45 of the last 56 road games when the total posted
is between 8.5 and 10 runs. Houston has lost 86 of the last 110 road
games when playing as an underdog of +150 or higher and they have lost
46 of the last 71 games when playing in the month of April.
San Antonio (-5) at LA Lakers 10:35 PM ET
2% San Antonio -5
When you read the box score of this game, there is a good chance that none of the Lakers 4 best guards will have played.
Kobe and Blake are out for sure with Nash and Meeks highly doubtful. That means the Lakers guard rotation will include Chris Duhon, Darius, Morris and Andrew Goudelock. Even with Gasol and Howard on the blocks, this is clearly not an NBA caliber Playoff lineup. And it is hardly one that should challenge the Playoff savvy Spurs who have flipped the switch now that the Playoffs have started. Zig-zag angles abound on the Lakers to bounce back but even with their 4 best guards at full health, this Laker team is 7-21 ATS as underdog including 3-6 ATS when priced as the inferior team at home. Look for the Spurs to put one more nail in Lakers coffin tonight. And don’t miss our top rated plays on the other two games.
NY Knicks at Boston (-2-) 8:05 PM ET
3% NY Knicks +2-
This is the Celtics first home appearance since April 10th. They will be welcomed by a Boston crowd who will be most supportive in the wake of the Boston Marathon bombings 7 days ago. Though there is plenty of sentiment for the tradition-rich Celtics in this contest and ample support by fans across the country, the fundamentals of this contest point to the visiting Knicks. The Celtics made a Playoff push in the immediate absence of Rondo going 16-6 SU. Since that time, they have gone 5-13 SU, 5-12 ATS. The loss of PG Rondo has been clearly detrimental as Boston has scored just 149 points in the first two games of this series. The younger legs of NY have continued their late season burst. They enter this game on runs of 18-2 SU, 17-3 ATS. With Carmello leading the surge at the peak of his career, it is clear that the Knicks have a superior team. No surprise to this bureau if this series ends before the completion of this weekend.
Denver at Golden State (-1) 10:35 PM ET ESPN2
5% Denver +1
All bets are off if Golden makes 51/79 shots for 65% as they did in their 131-117 win at Denver Tuesday night when they snapped the Nuggets 24 game home win streak. But NBA Playoff teams off high-scoring blowout wins are as solid a zig-zag Play Against as you will find. This is joined by several other highly successful Playoff zig-zag situations to make this a major standout play from a situational aspect. In Game #2, Jack replaced the injured Lee while Thompson and Curry stepped up with huge games. Formerly injured Faried was eased into action off the bench by HC Karl. Despite playing at home, expect the emotional lift the Warriors got from the injured Lee to have subsided and for Faried to return to the starting lineup where he will control the paint. Finally, my Winning Factor Line Indicator squarely points to the Nuggets in this lifting it to the Top of the Ticket play.
Cincinnati (Bailey) at Washington (Zimmerman) (-130) 7:05 PM ET
3% Washington (Zimmerman) (-130)
I’m calling the buy sign for the Washington turnaround after the Nationals gave us our only defeat last night 8-1. That victory stopped an overall slide of 3-9 in which Washington had averaged just 3 runs, as well as an 0-6 home slide in which they were outscored 27-9. Now it’s the Reds who enter on a downer. In going 1-2 of late, they have plated only 4 runs. And the road loss last night, dropped them to 0-6 away recently in which they have allowed 42 runs. Zimmerman is 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. In a pair of starts vs. the Reds last year, Zimmerman had a 1.29 ERA. At this site against the Reds, Zimmerman has a 0.71 ERA in 2 starts. I reduce the rating a bit because of Bailey’s decent form which shows him with a 1.16 WHIP, a 26/9 KBB and a performance against Washington earlier this season in which he allowed just 2 hits in 6 IP of a 15-0 win. Despite that fact, current team form must dominate this selection.
Pittsburgh (Sanchez) at St. Louis (Lynn) (-190) 8:15 PM ET
5% St. Louis (Lynn) (-190) (5 IP Play)
The Pirates were good to us yesterday with a top play winner as +165 underdog. The Bucs are among baseball’s hottest teams now with a 12-4 mark following a 1-5 start. But the rare 3 game win streak at Philly may signal a bit of a letdown. The Cards have been a bit more consistent as they enter following a 6-3 road trip including 3-0 vs. Washington. Key reason for this selection is the dichotomous pitching matchup. Lynn is 3-0 for the season with a solid 25/10 KBB. Lynn comes off a 5-0 victory vs. Philadelphia in which he allowed 1 hit and recorded 8 Ks in 7 IP. As the Pirates wait for Liriano and Morton to finish their rehab, they are forced to trot out Sanchez for yet another start. In his last 17 MLB starts, Sanchez is 0-11 with an 8.87 ERA. That includes 0-2 this year with an 11.12 ERA and 2.29 WHIP. Sanchez has been worse of late allowing 11 runs in 6 1/3 IP of his last 2 starts. Though the St. Louis bullpen is improving, it is no match for a Buc bullpen with a 168 index among the best in all of baseball once again this year. For that reason, my strong recommendation is to make this a 5 IP play.
Milwaukee (Burgos) at LA Dodgers (Beckett) (-150) 10:10 PM ET
3% Milwaukee (Burgos) (+140)
The Brewers had their 9 game winning streak snapped by San Diego (and Volquez)!of all people. Tonight Milwaukee looks to extend their 9-2 series record. They will do so behind Burgos who’ve won solid in his first start allowing 1 run on 5 hits in 5 IP of a 5-1 Cub victory. Since joining the Dodgers from Boston last year, Beckett is 2-6 with a 3.57 ERA in 11 starts. That includes 0-3 this year with a 4.68 ERA. Beckett’s most recent start was a 6-1 loss to Baltimore in which he allowed 6 runs on 8 hits in 5 2/3 innings. Neither LA nor Beckett deserves this level of favoritism.
San Francisco (Lincecum) (-115) at San Diego (Cashner) 10:10 PM ET
4% San Francisco (Lincecum) (-115)
The Padres snapped their 0-5 recent losing streak and 0-7 slide at home with a 2-1 victory vs. Milwaukee when the Brewers recorded the final out of the game with the batter being called out for being hit by his own batted ball outside the batter’s box. But that 2-1 victory cannot mask the fact the Padres have been outscored 24-8 with a .198 BA in a long line of offensive inefficiency. Tonight they send Cashner to the hill, who in 7 career starts, is 0-2 with a 4.40 ERA. Far prefer San Francisco who enters with a bit of hunger after a pair of extra inning home losses. Yet the Giants are still 9-3 in Divisional games this year and own this series with records of 26-9 and 4-0. Lincecum continues his improvement. For the season, he is 2-0 with a 3.97 ERA. His last start was a 2-0 victory vs. these Padres in which he allowed just 4 hits with 8 Ks in 6 2/3 IP. That runs his recent record vs. San Diego to 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA in his most recent 8 starts. Great value price for a series dominator with a strong pitching matchup both among the starters and in the bullpen.
Texas (Grimm) (-110) at Minnesota (Diamond) 8:10 PM ET
4% Texas (Grimm) (-110)
Choosing to ride the Rangers roll with a cheap lay! Texas enters tonight at 6-1 outscoring the opposition 47-18. The Rangers have taken 10/12 in this series including 4 consecutive at this site. Making his 3rd start for the injured Harrison, Grimm has gone 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA (though both against light hitting Seattle). Diamond has not yet rounded into form with a 4.35 ERA in a pair of starts. In his most recent start against Texas, Diamond allowed 2 runs on 3 hits in 2 1/3 IP before being tossed for throwing a high hard one at Hamilton’s head. Ranger roll continues.
Tampa Bay (Hernandez) at Chicago White Sox (Peavey) (-140) 8:10 PM ET
3% Chicago White Sox (Peavey) (-140)
Until the Rays get it on track on the road where they are 2-8 with a .193 BA, I must continue to fade them. The answer certainly does not appear to be the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona. Even a name change has not altered the mediocre at best performance of Hernandez. For the season, Hernandez is 1-3 with a 4.74 ERA. In 12 starts vs. the Pale Hose, it is an even worse 4.85 ERA. I have been waiting for the CWS turnaround. Following a 3-10 slide, CWS has now won 2 straight. They send Peavey to the hill with an outstanding 1.14 WHIP, a 33/5 KBB off a recent start which he allowed 1 run on 9 Ks in 7 IP. In a pair of starts from this mound this season, Peavey has hurled to the tune of a 1.38 ERA. With a bullpen index advantage, a 164-113, we comfortably line up with the White Sox today.
Cleveland (Kazmir) at Kansas City (Santana) (-155) 8:10 PM ET
4% Kansas City (Santana) (-155)
Pitching for the first time in 2 years and recovering from a strained oblique, Kazmir allowed 6 runs on 8 hits in 3 1/3 IP vs. Houston. The previous time Kazmir took the hill was at this site where he allowed 5 runs in 1 2/3 IP. I can’t see anything positive as he approaches this outing tonight. The Royals are off to a positive start at 11-8 with a 4-2 record at home. They look to extend a series record which has seen them win 7/8 and 4/5 at this site. Santana has been a pleasant surprise for the Royals. For the season, Santana is 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and 26/5 KBB. In his most recent 26 IP, Santana has allowed just 4 runs. Run line players take note: a whopping 90/105 recent Cleveland losses, including 9/11 this year, have been by 2 or more runs. Please consider part of your wager on the run line tonight
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