4-28-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB TEXAS at MINNESOTA

Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MINNESOTA) terrible offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.50) (AL), with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season
44-20 since 1997. ( 68.8% 25.5 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.0 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB LA ANGELS at SEATTLE

SEATTLE is 15-4 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in Home games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: SEATTLE (4.5) , OPPONENT (2.0)

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA DENVER at GOLDEN STATE

Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games
54-23 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.1% 28.7 units )
5-5 this year. ( 50.0% -0.5 units )

NBA NEW YORK at BOSTON

Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (NEW YORK) after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 85 points or less
150-119 since 1997. ( 55.8% 63.4 units )
4-9 this year. ( 30.8% -3.4 units )

NBA DENVER at GOLDEN STATE

Play Under - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 good rebounding team - giving up <=11 off. rebounds/game on the season, on Sunday games
194-115 since 1997. ( 62.8% 67.5 units )
17-10 this year. ( 63.0% 6.0 units )

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HANDICAPPING KINGS

JIMMY

BASEBALL

LA DODGERS /MILWAUKEE - UNDER 6.5 -125 (4PM)

NBA

LA LAKERS +11 SA (7PM)

PERRY (SOCCER PLAYS)

Catania (ITA-A) vs AC Milan (ITA-A) - UNDER 2.5+123

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Todays Best Bets

(5 UNITS) Celtics +1.5

(3 UNITS) Blue Jays

(5 UNITS) Phillies

(4 UNITS) Bucks +8.5

(5 UNITS) Rangers

(3 UNITS) Lakers +11

(5 UNITS) Warriors +1.5

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Chase Diamond

8* KILLER CLUB
Toronto vs. NY Yankees, 04/28/2013 13:05
Money Line: -108 Toronto

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Senators at Bruins: What bettors need to know

Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins (-185, 5)

The Boston Bruins attempt to claim their third consecutive division title while the Ottawa Senators try to avoid a first-round playoff matchup with the top-seeded Pittsburgh Penguins when the Northeast rivals face off at TD Garden on Sunday. The contest was originally postponed from April 15 due to the tragic Boston Marathon bombings. Boston, which trails the Montreal Canadiens by one point, needs a victory to complete a five-game season sweep of Ottawa and capture the division crown for the fourth time in five campaigns. Had the Bruins not squandered a two-goal lead for the fifth time this season on Saturday against the
Southeast champion Washington Capitals, only one point on Sunday would be necessary to win the Northeast.

Ottawa dropped to eighth place in the Eastern Conference thanks to its 2-1 regulation loss at home to the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday. The Senators have lost three of their last four games heading into their regular-season finale. A victory moves Ottawa to seventh and sets up a playoff matchup with Montreal. One point also puts the Senators in seventh but creates a postseason showdown with the Bruins, and a regulation loss creates the unenviable task of taking on Pittsburgh.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, NBCSN, Rogers Sportsnet East, TVA (Ottawa), NESN (Boston)

ABOUT THE SENATORS (24-17-6): Ottawa actually entered Saturday's game with a chance to finish fifth in the East, as two victories and a regulation loss by the Toronto Maple Leafs would have made it happen. While Toronto held up its end of the bargain, the Senators went 0-for-5 on the power play and only were able to get one of their 44 shots past Philadelphia's Steve Mason as they lost their third straight home game. Offense has been a problem for Ottawa, which hasn't scored more than three goals in a game since posting a 5-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning on March 23. In fact, the Senators have scored once in regulation in each of their last four contests. "We have to have a winning atmosphere, and in order to do that, we're going to need to score more than one goal," netminder Craig Anderson said. Defenseman Chris Phillips' assist on Kyle Turris' goal Saturday was the 200th of his career.

ABOUT THE BRUINS (28-13-6): Boston's usually strong penalty-killing unit was its downfall Saturday as Washington rallied from a 2-0 deficit with three power-play goals, including Eric Fehr's game-winner 3:23 into overtime. The Bruins enter the season finale ranked fourth on the penalty kill at 87.0 percent. Right wing Jaromir Jagr is questionable for Sunday after missing the Washington game with the flu. The future Hall of Famer has recorded two goals and seven assists in 11 games since being acquired from Dallas at the trade deadline. Coach Claude Julien is optimistic that right wing Nathan Horton will be ready for the playoffs. "I wouldn't say 100 percent," Julien said. "To us right now, that's the main goal. He should be ready for us." Horton has been out with a hand injury suffered in a fight with Pittsburgh's Jarome Iginla on April 20.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0-2 in the last six meetings.
* Senators are 1-6 in the last seven meetings in Boston.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Bruins’ last five home games.
* Under is 5-0 in Senators’ last five road games.

OVERTIME

1. Boston has won five consecutive meetings with Ottawa and 13 of the last 14. Its only loss in that span was a 1-0 setback.

2. Each of the Bruins' four victories over the Senators this season have been by one goal.

3. The road team is 5-1-1 in the last seven games of the all-time series.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Don Best Consensus

Atlanta at Detroit
Pick: Under

Although the over is 7-3 in the Tigers last 10 games, and they are currently on a 4-game over run, this game has UNDER written all over it. Both ball clubs have outstanding pitchers on the mound on Sunday. The Braves are starting LHP Mike Minor, who is 3-1 this season with a 1.80 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. In the 4 games he's started, 3 of them have gone under the total. Meanwhile, RHP Doug Fister will be on the bump for the Tigers at home, who is 3-0 in 4 starts this season with a 2.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee won on Saturday in extra innings with the Diamondbacks -$168/Rockies.

For Sunday "Mr Chalk" is coming back with the Diamondbacks -$145/Rockies.

"Mr Chalk" is 16-7 + $574 for the 2013 MLB Regular Season.


Ben lee won on Saturday with the Grizzles -3/Clippers.

For Sunday Ben lee likes the Knicks -2/Celtics to close out the series.

Ben lee is 6-3 +$270 for the NBA 1st round playoffs.

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JACK JONES

TOP PLAY =-

NBA Apr 28 '13 (9:35p)
DENVER GM4 vs GOLDEN STATE GM4

DENVER GM4
-1½-110 at BMaker

20* Nuggets/Warriors NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Denver -1.5

The Denver Nuggets get the call Sunday in a must-win Game 4 over the Golden State Warriors. Denver cannot afford to go down 1-3 with a loss, thus I look for them to do whatever it takes to win Game 4.

This play falls into a system that is 34-10 (77.3%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Denver is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. The Nuggets are 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons. Golden State is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

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Linebeaters

Sunday NBA

Celtics +2

Bucks +9

Spurs -11

Warriors +2



Sunday MLB

Phillies -110

Reds +110

Astros +180

A’s -125

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Bob Balfe

April 28th 2013

Sunday NBA & MLB

Knicks -1.5 over Celtics
Sadly today will mark the end of a great era if the Knicks do win. Pierce is done, KG is probably gone and this Celtics team will have to rebuild. With a healthy Rondo the will be fine, but their championship runs are over for a while. The Knicks simply are a better basketball team and can score from any where on the court. Boston just cannot find offense and over 4 quarters I see them having that one big stretch where they don't score and that will be the difference. This Boston team is beat up and old and I believe their season ends today. Take the Knicks

Spurs -11 over Lakers
I don't think people realize how beat up this Lakers team is. For starters this team was not even that great with a healthy Kobe Bryant. It took the final day of the season for them to get into the playoffs. Its not like this is a 1 or 2 seed that got hit with the injury bug. This current team now is missing their top 4 guards. They are about as good as the Bobcats maybe worst with this current lineup. I am not even joking. The Spurs are just too talented and I guess they could toy with the Lakers and not win double digits, but I think its going to be hard for them not to win by 20-30 points again. Take the Spurs.

Mets -110 over Phillies
Niese/Hamels
Cole Hamels in getting no run support this year and the Phillies are just not good against left handed pitching. The Mets have been pounded by the Phillies so far this year and are trying to avoid the sweep today. Look for the Mets to come out swinging while the Philly bats will struggle. Take the Mets.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover MLB Total Sun, 04/28/13 - 4:10 PM

double-dime bet - 960 LOS / 959 MIL - OVER 6.5
Analysis:
Not only do the Brewers and Dodgers feature a lot of big name offensive stars, but neither starting pitcher has a good history pitching against their respective opponent.
Milwaukee's Kyle Lohse left his last start with a dislocated pinkie. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA in 49 career innings versus the Dodgers. The Dodgers have gone over the total in seven of their last eight home contests when facing a right-hander.
Kershaw entered the season as arguably the top pitcher in the National League. But his curve ball and control haven't been there during his last three starts. The Brewers, with their dominant righty lineup, have hit the southpaw. Kershaw has an 8.47 ERA in four matchups against the Brewers, including a 15.43 ERA during his past starts against them.

Carlos Gomez is heating up for the Brewers batting .500 with three homers during his last 12 games. He has a .750 batting average against Kershaw. The over has cashed in 18 of Milwaukee's last 22 road games against a foe with a losing home mark.
Note, too, that John Tumpane is slated to be behind the plate. The over is 8-2-1 in his last 11 games behind the plate.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Smooth 44

mlb
(954) miami +115/rrl -1.5 +tbd
(957) pittsburgh +170/rrl -1.5 +tbd
(972) chi-white sox +125/rrl -1.5 +tbd ***play of the day***
(975) baltimore +130/rrl -1.5 +tbd

nba
(509) ny knicks -1 (-20)
(511) miami -8 (-20)(515) denver -1 (-20)

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Hoopsgooroo

[965] Toronto Blue Jays -103 vs New York Yankees
[951] Philadelphia Phillies -113 vs New York Mets
[955] Cincinnati Reds -102 vs Washington Nationals
[969] Texas Rangers -124 vs Minnesota Twins
[973] Cleveland Indians OVER 8.5 +113 vs Kansas City Royals
[971] Tampa Bay Rays -135 vs Chicago White Sox
[973] Cleveland Indians -102 vs Kansas City Royals
[975] Baltimore Orioles +138 vs Oakland Athletics
[962] San Diego Padres +108 vs San Francisco Giants
[963] Colorado Rockies +123 vs Arizona Diamondbacks
[979] Atlanta Braves +135 vs Detroit Tigers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo’s a triple threat

The Mariners fought valiantly for Hondo last night, rallying past the Angels to partially offset his loss with the Cardinals and limit the deficit to 130 sisks.

Today, Mr. Aitch has learned that Mrs. Niese’s lucky blue skivvies have been recalibrated to prevent anymore debillitating comebackers, which calls for a 10-unit play on Jon and the Metamucils. Also, 10 units apiece on Chunky Bud Norris and Beefy Bart Colon.