4-30-13

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Grizzlies at Clippers: What bettors need to know

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers (-5, 180)

Best-of-seven series tied 2-2.

The road team has yet to win in this Western Conference first-round series and the Memphis Grizzlies would like to change that when they visit the Los Angeles Clippers in Tuesday’s Game 5. Los Angeles opened the series with two home victories before the Grizzlies took the next two in Memphis to even the series. The Clippers averaged 102.5 points in their home wins and just 82.5 in their two losses. The Grizzlies’ wins were by a combined 33 points.

Memphis nearly notched a road victory in Game 2 but Chris Paul hit the game-winning basket with one-tenth of a second remaining. A victory in Game 5 would give the Grizzlies a chance to sew up the series at home in Game 6. “You can’t win a series without winning in L.A.,” Memphis coach Lionel Hollins said after Game 4. The Clippers appeared superior to the Grizzlies in their home wins and then were severely outmatched on the road. “We’ve got to take care of business in Game 5 at home in front of our fans,” Los Angeles coach Vinny Del Negro said after the 104-83 loss on Saturday. “But there’s no question we’re going to have to get back to playing the way we did the first couple games.”

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT, Fox Sports Tennessee (Memphis), Prime Ticket (Los Angeles)

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Center Marc Gasol (24 points, 13 rebounds) and power forward Zach Randolph (24 points, nine rebounds) each had strong performances in Game 4 after being relatively quiet through the first three games. The double-double was Gasol’s first of the series while Randolph has put together back-to-back stellar outings after playing poorly in Los Angeles. Point guard Mike Conley had 23 assists against two turnovers in the two Memphis wins as he outplayed Paul. “I try to contain him as much as possible, but Mike is one of those guys that year-in and year-out just keeps getting better,” Paul said. “He’s a handful.” Conley set a Grizzlies’ postseason record with 13 assists in Game 4.

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Paul and Blake Griffin each had 19 points in Saturday’s loss and could use some help from the other three starters. Center DeAndre Jordan had two points while forward Caron Butler and guard Chauncey Billups were both scoreless as the trio went a combined 1-of-13 from the field. The potent bench has also been struggling. Sixth man Jamal Crawford was just 7-of-21 shooting in the two road games and forward Matt Barnes was 5-of-14. Guard Eric Bledsoe was 3-for-12 after being 10-of-13 from the field in the two games in Los Angeles while forward Lamar Odom (6-of-17) has been subpar throughout the series.

TRENDS:

* Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
* Over is 7-1 in Clippers’ last eight home games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The Grizzlies set a franchise postseason mark with the 21-point Game 4 victory. The previous top margin of victory was 18 points over San Antonio during the 2011 playoffs.

2. Griffin grabbed 10 rebounds in Game 4 for his first double-double since April 7.

3. Memphis was 15-3 during the regular season when Gasol notched a double-double.

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MLB weather watch: Winds blowing out at Wrigley

Heavy winds are expected at Wrigley Field on Tuesday when the Cubs host the Padres.

Here's the rest of the notable weather across the bigs on Tuesday:

(All lines provided by BetOnline.com)

Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers (100, 7.5)
Site: Ballpark in Arlington

Winds will blow in from right field at 11 mph. The over was 13-9 in 2012 when the wind blew in from right field at the Ballpark in Arlington.

San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs (-137, NA)
Site: Wrigley Field

Winds will blow out to left field at 14 mph. The under was 3-0 in 2012 when the wind blew out to left field.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals (-125, 7)
Site: Kauffman Stadium

Winds will blow out to left field at 13 mph.

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-132, 7.5)
Site: Busch Stadium

Winds will blow out to left field at 12 mph. The Cardinals were 5-2 at home in 2012 when the wind blew out to left field.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics (-120, 8)
Site: O.co Coliseum

Winds will blow in from left field at 12 mph.

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Tuesday Starters with a Combined 17-2 UNDER Record

Here's a look at four MLB starters taking the hill on Tuesday who combined have a 17-2 under record and have made $1,352.31 for $100 bettors in their 19 starts:

Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox (2-0, 2.78 ERA, 1-3 O/U)

Since getting torched for five earned runs in four innings in his first start, Quintana has given up only two earned runs in his next three starts. He hasn't allowed a home run to 94 consecutive batters.

Kevin Slowey, Miami Marlins (0-2, 2.43 ERA, 0-5 O/U)

Slowey's under record is strengthened by his offense giving him six runs of support in his five starts, but the under will usually stay strong when you yield only eight earned runs in those outings. Slowey has displayed pinpoint control, walking only six batters this campaign.

Trevor Cahill, Arizona Diamondbacks (1-3, 3.00 ERA, 0-5 O/U)

The lowest total Cahill has seen this season is 8.5, but he has gone well under that in his four other starts. Cahill gave up no earned runs in two outings and 10 earned runs in his other three starts combined.

Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado Rockies (2-2, 2.86 ERA, 1-4 O/U)

De La Rosa's last four starts have been eerily similar. He pitched six innings, giving up a combined five earned runs, and has given up an average of 4.3 hits per outing, with each game going under. The Rockies' offense has scored only 10 runs in his last four starts.

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DAVE ESSLER

MLB Cliff Notes Tuesday

Mets at Miami: Hefner shut down the Dodgers, but everyone does that. He's not gonna pitch deep and the Marlins owe him one from his first start of the season. Because Wright may not be back, it's the Fish or nothing.

Washington at Atlanta: I've been leary of Hudson most of the year as I do think he's wearing down, but he had a way of coming up big. Gio has been Gio most of the year, but I have to think he avenges his only loss this season. Braves pen has been underperforming and with Ramos back I like the Nationals.

Padres at Cubs: Shocking to see the Cubs -145 over too many people, and simply by process of elimination I would take the Padres. How the mighty (Volquez) have fallen, but he has pitched against either good or hot teams, shut down Milwaukee, and has been keeping the ball on the ground.

Pirates at Brewers: Estrada a very under rated pitcher (1.29 WHIP) but he does give up the long ball. MacDonald is feast or famine and has been owned by the Brewers. Lean Brewers and over, if the roof is open, but if it's closed there's a stiff breeze blowing in from right, so in that case, under.

Reds at Cardinals: Both Arroyo's beatings have come on the road, so there is no chance of taking Cincinnati. However, I am always wrong on the Reds, and even factoring in his bad starts his WHIP is 1.09. Perhaps. If nothing else Garcia typically keeps the ball in the park, and has typically been better at home.

Giants at Arizona: I'd normally not look much further than Bumgarners' 0.89 WHIP and be done with it, especially with the D-Backs injuries, and that's against Cahill who has been brutalized on the road. Giants pen has been great at home and not so much on the road. I still like the under in this one, and the Giants.

Rockies at Dodgers: Tempted to make the auto-under bet with tow lefties in Dodger Stadium at night. De La Rosa has pitched well in every game and Ryu can get the ball up at times. Rockies and under.

Houston at Yankees: We aren't laying -300 but could use them in a parlay somewhere. No chance of taking the over because we might need the Yankees to get all nine and they won't get the ninth at bat. Humber hasn't pitched five inning total in his last two starts, so his stock is the lowest in the league. Since he has pitched well against the Yankees, the RL or even a flyer on +280 isn't out of the question.

Minnesota at Detroit: Interesting that Verlander is .60 less against a pitcher like Worley who's been lit up. He pitched decent in his last two games, but threw over 100 pitches in both of them. Not many teams know Verlander as well as the Twins, so nothing would surprise me here. Lean under simply because of the wind and JV, but the Tigers could well get all of them.

Boston at Toronto: So Toronto hasn't been hitting very well, and my guess is that Lester wakes the bats up, simply because they owe him one and are rested. The bad news is Morrow has been terrible and threw 112 pitches last game. Almost have to lean over in this one.

White Sox at Texas: There is no chance of laying -200 with Darvish against a team like Chicago that CAN score a ton of runs via the long ball. It is warm in Dallas but the wind is blowing in pretty hard from right, so I could clearly see taking the under here, with a flyer on Quintana and the White Sox bullpen. All those -200 favorites won't all win. They never do.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City: I'd love to take the suddenly hot-hitting Rays but not against Shields, whose pitching against his old team. Wanted to take the under here, but there's a big boy breeze blowing out to left and it's warming up in KC, so I might think about the over, especially at 7.5 (+105) or so.

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NHL Eastern Conference Playoff Preview: Round 1

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Boston Bruins were the runaway favorites to come out of the East and compete for Lord Stanley's mug a little over a month ago, but the balance of power evened out a bit in the NHL’s Eastern Conference during the final month of the shortened campaign.

Here's our Eastern Conference playoff preview:

No. 1 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. No. 8 New York Islanders

Season series: Penguins won 4-1 SU, 2-2-1 over/under

Season prices: Penguins -600, Islanders +400

Why bet the Penguins: The Penguins have been the Stanley Cup favorites since odds were released and appear to be the beasts in the East. Even injuries to key cogs Evgeni Malkin, James Neal and captain Sidney Crosby didn’t slow the Pittsburgh attack down the stretch. The Pens have taken the last four meetings with the Islanders by a combined score of 16-5 and Crosby is on the mend.

Why bet the Islanders: The Islanders are huge underdogs in the series and have nothing to lose. John Tavares will be considered for the Hart Trophy after accumulating 47 points in 48 games and they can lean on the playoff experience of veteran goaltender Evgeni Nabokov.

No. 2 Montreal Canadiens vs. No. 7 Ottawa Senators

Season series: Tied 2-2 SU, 2-2 over/under

Season prices: Canadiens -200, Senators +160

Why bet the Canadiens: The Canadiens can rely on three lines to produce offense. Eight of Montreal’s nine forwards that make up those lines tallied at least 25 points during the regular season. The Habs will also feel like they have home advantage in every game of the series, as their raucous supporters will surely make the short trip to Ottawa to drown out Ottawa’s notoriously weak fan base.

Why bet the Senators: Craig Anderson. The Ottawa netminder led the league with a 1.69 GAA and .941 save percentage. Also, the return of reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson (Achilles) to the lineup has given the squad a huge morale boost heading into the playoffs.

No. 3 Washington Capitals vs. No. 6 New York Rangers

Season series: Tied 1-1 SU , 0-1-1 over/under

Season prices: Capitals -115, Rangers -115

Why bet the Capitals: The Caps aren’t getting much respect for prevailing out of the weak Southeast Division, but that could work to their advantage. Washington has failed miserably in past seasons in the role of the favorite and has been building some serious momentum down the stretch. The Capitals picked up wins in 11 of their final 13 games and Alex Ovechkin seems to have his head back in the game after a slow start.

Why bet the Rangers: The Rangers also thrived down the stretch, snatching wins in 10 of their final 14 contests (10-3-1). New York has a distinct advantage in goal with Henrik Lundqvist, who finished the season with a 2.05 GAA and .926 save percentage. These squads played an unforgettable second-round series in last year’s playoffs where every game but the first was decided by a single goal.

No. 4 Boston Bruins vs. No. 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Season series: Bruins won 3-1 SU, 1-2-1 over/under

Season prices: Bruins -280, Maple Leafs +210

Why bet the Bruins: The Bruins took all six meetings with Toronto last season, outscoring the Leafs 36-10. And Boston took three of four from Toronto this year. The Bruins struggled down the stretch, but this physical team is built for the playoffs and has the ability to wear down any opponent.

Why bet the Maple Leafs: The Bruins are losers of seven of their last nine and have had very little rest down the stretch. Sunday’s finale with the Senators was their sixth game in eight days, which could work to the Maple Leafs' advantage. Toronto is playoff-bound for the first time since 2004 and has nearly 10 years’ worth of frustrations to take out on its opponents.

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NHL Western Conference Playoff Preview: Round 1

The NHL’s Western Conference playoffs are seemingly always a crapshoot because very little separates all eight teams that qualify for the playoffs.

The Los Angeles Kings were the darlings of last year’s playoffs and are back to defend their Stanley Cup title as the No. 5 seed, but everyone is talking about the Chicago Blackhawks and their dominance on ice this season.

Here is our Western Conference playoff preview:

No. 1 Chicago Blackhawks vs. No. 8 Minnesota Wild

Season series: Blackhawks won 3-2 SU, 1-4 over/under

Series prices: Wild +325, Blackhawks -450

Why bet the Blackhawks: The Blackhawks are the Presidents’ Trophy winners for establishing the league’s best regular-season record. Chicago allowed a league-low two goals per game while netting 3.1 markers – the second-highest output in the NHL.

Why bet the Wild: The Wild haven't appeared in the playoffs since the 2007-08 season so their faithful are starved for playoff hockey. The frenzied Minnesota crowd is sure to make life difficult for Chicago at the Xcel Energy Center. The Wild outhit the Blackhawks in all three meetings (66-38 overall) and could wear down Chicago in a long series. The Blackhawks have lost in the first round of the playoffs the last two seasons after winning the Stanley Cup in 2010.

No. 2 Anaheim Ducks vs. No. 7 Detroit Red Wings

Season series: Red Wings won 2-1 SU, 2-1 over/under

Series prices: Red Wings +110, Ducks -140

Why bet the Ducks: The Ducks are the Pacific Division champs and boast a two-headed monster in goal. Jonas Hiller and Viktor Fasth form a formidable one-two punch and coach Bruce Boudreau won’t hesitate to pull the trigger on a goaltender switch at any point in the series.

Why bet the Red Wings: The Wings have already been playing playoff-style hockey down the stretch in order to qualify for their 22nd consecutive postseason. Goaltender Jimmy Howard has posted two shutouts during Detroit’s current four-game win streak.

No. 3 Vancouver Canucks vs. No. 6 San Jose Sharks

Season series: Sharks won 3-0 SU, 0-1-2 over/under

Series prices: Sharks +110, Canucks -140

Why bet the Canucks: When these squads last squared off in a playoff series two years ago during Vancouver's run to the Stanley Cup final, the Sharks had a significantly higher physical component going for them, with the likes of Ryane Clowe, Douglas Murray and Jamie McGinn. Vancouver has struggled against physical opponents at times throughout the regular season, but shouldn't be pushed around by San Jose. The Canucks have been cup contenders for the past few seasons, and boast a roster loaded with plenty of playoff experience.

Why bet the Sharks: The Sharks have one distinct advantage over the Canucks - a goaltender that boasts a Stanley Cup ring. Antti Niemi has been carrying the team all season long and has been there and done that in the NHL postseason. The Sharks also have an experienced core of forwards such as Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Joe Pavelski that will be out to change their reputations as chokers in the postseason.

No. 4 St. Louis Blues vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Kings

Season series: Kings won 3-0 SU, 2-0-1 over/under

Series prices: Kings -120, Blues -110

Why bet the Blues: The Blues fought hard down the stretch and won 12 of their final 15 contests to earn home-ice in the first round. They also have a hot goalie. Brian Elliott has returned to form, allowing just 16 goals in April on 305 shots (.948 save percentage). He also led the NHL in April with 11 wins and a 1.28 goals-against average.

Why bet the Kings: The Kings are the defending Stanley Cup champs. Los Angeles made history as the No. 8 seed last season and not having home-ice in any of the four rounds didn’t matter. The Kings will also welcome back captain Dustin Brown for Game 1 after he served a two-game suspension for an elbow on Minnesota’s Jason Pominville.

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Blackhawks' Bolland, Emery out for Game 1

Chicago Blackhawks forward Dave Bolland and goaltender Ray Emery will not suit up against the Minnesota Wild in Game 1 of their first-round playoff series Tuesday.

Both players are suffering from lower-body injuries and are considered day-to-day, according to Chicago head coach Joel Quenneville.

Bolland, who is a key two-way forward for the Hawks, has missed three consecutive games since sustaining the injury against the Vancouver Canucks on April 22. He has seven goals and seven helpers in 35 contests.

Emery has missed two straight games and Quenneville has announced that Henrik Karlsson will serve as backup to first-string goaltender Corey Crawford for Game 1. Emery has a 17-1-0 record with a 1.94 goals-against average and a .922 save percentage this campaign.

The Hawks opened as high as -250 favorites on the moneyline at some books and that number has been bet down to -220 as of Monday evening.

The total is set at 5.

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Champions League semis: Second leg betting notes

Since the 2003-04 Champions League season, 12 teams have won the first leg by three or more goals, as Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund did last week. Those teams are 8-1-3 in the second leg (67 percent).

The chances of either Barcelona or Real Madrid overturning the deficit is even more remote. In the 138 knockout ties since 2003-04, the only club to advance after losing the first leg by three or more goals is Deportivo La Coruna in 2004. It lost the first leg 4-1 to AC Milan, and won 4-0 at home in the second leg to win the tie 5-4.

Here's the odds and notes for the second leg of the Champions League semifinals courtesy of Bet365.com:

Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund -154 +350 +400

* Real Madrid will advance to the final if it wins 3-0. If Real Madrid leads 4-1 on the night after 90 minutes, then the tie will go into extra time, if no goal is scored in extra time, the tie will be decided by penalties. If Dortmund scores twice, Madrid has to score six.

* Dortmund hasn't lost in its last nine matches (8-1-0) in all competitions.

* Dortmund has lost only one match by more than three goals this season, 4-1 to Hamburg in the Bundesliga on Februrary 9.

* Real Madrid has won 17 matches in all competitions by at least three goals, including three Champions League games.

* Dortmund striker Robert Lewandowski, who scored all four goals for Dortmund in the first leg, has scored 21 goals in his last 20 appearances for the club.

* Real Madrid forward Cristiano Ronaldo is fit to play after missing Saturday's 2-1 win against Atletico Madrid with a thigh problem.

Barcelona v Bayern Munich -110 +320 +280

* Barcelona has to beat Bayern Munich by five goals to qualify for the final. A 4-0 Barcelona win after 90 minutes will take the tie to extra time, and if no goal is scored in extra time, the tie will be decided by penalties. If Bayern scores once, Barcelona has to score six goals.

* Barcelona midfielder Sergio Busquetes is in a fitness race to play on Wednesday. He missed Saturday's La Liga game against Athletic Bilbao with a groin problem and did not train on Sunday.

* Bayern Munich has won 10 games in a row and 21 of its last 22 matches in all competitions.

* Barcelona fullback Jordi Alba is suspended for the second leg and defender Javier Mascherano is also expected to miss out. Marc Bartra, who struggled in the first leg, is expected to partner Gerard Pique in the center of defense.

* Barcelona has won 10 games this year in all competitions by four goals.

* Bayern Munich hasn't lost a game in any competition by four goals or more since April 8, 2009. (Barcelona 4 Bayern Munich 0)

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Steve Fezzik
9-1 L-10

Tuesday NBA BEST BET

UNDER 180 - Memphis/Clippers

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Bob Balfe

MLB
Red Sox -130 over Blue Jays

NBA
Warriors
Grizzlies

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Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays - RED SOX TO WIN (-127)
Listed Pitchers: Lester vs Morrow
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.57 units)

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Nets (-5 1/2) Monday.

Tuesday it’s the Nuggets. The deficit is 357 sirignanos.

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DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

04/30/13 Predictions

Season: 280-178 (.611)

Western Conference Quarterfinals
Game #1
CHICAGO 3, Minnesota 2
ANAHEIM 3, Detroit 2
ST. LOUIS 3, Los Angeles 2

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

04/30/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 827-387 (.681)
ATS: 652-592 (.524)
ATS Vary Units: 1649-1524 (.520)
Over/Under: 641-604 (.515)
Over/Under Vary Units: 875-792 (.525)

Western Conference Quarterfinals
Game #5
DENVER 113, Golden State 106
L.A. CLIPPERS 94, Memphis 91