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San Jose Sharks vs. Vancouver Canucks (5) O/U
Under 5.5
Pick Is:Under 5.5
Pick Explanation:Game 1 only saw 4 points in the game. Expect the same with tonight's game. Both teams are known for their defenses and will be preventing goals again tonight. Luongo is going to be a huge factor in this game and he knows it. Look for some big saves to make this an UNDER pick.
NY Islanders vs Pittsburgh Penguins (5.5) O/U
Under 5.5
Pick Is:Under 5.5
Pick Explanation:Penguins put a hurting on the Islanders in game 1. Don't look at this game to be the same... the Islanders are shaking off the nervousness and are going to be focused on staying in it. Look for Tavaras to help put some points on the board and for the Islanders Defense to hold strong.
Cincinnati (Leake) at Chicago Cubs (Villanueva) (-105) 2:20 PM ET
3% Chicago Cubs (Villanueva) (-105) 5IP Play
Cincinnati has won 6 straight at this site but their recent performance at the plate and on the road gives little indication that will continue. In the last 9 games, the Reds are hitting .195 and have scored just 17 runs. On the road of late, the Reds stand 2-10, allowing 58 runs. Leake is not the stopper. Leake has a 4.34 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP. In his most recent 4 outings vs. the Cubs, Leake has a 5.11 ERA and he has a 4.68 ERA in 5 starts at this site. Cubs counter with Villanueva who has a 2.29 ERA, 0.82 WHIP with 29/9 KBB. In 6 appearances vs. Cincinnati, Villanueva has a 2.50 ERA. We limit this to a 5 inning play, however, because of the Cubs horrendous late game defense and what could be described as a shaky bullpen, at the least.
Oakland (Griffin) at NY Yankees (Sabathia) (-140) 7:05 PM ET
5%* NY Yankees (Sabathia) (-140)
After a 12-4 start, Oakland is now on a 4-9 run. That includes 1-5 recently away following their 6-0 road start (against lowly Houston and LAA). Griffin comes off back-to-back busted starts in which he has allowed 13 runs in 11 IP. In a pair of starts vs. NYY last year, Griffin had a 5.23 ERA. In a dichotomous way, NYY is 16-6 following their 1-4 start. The Yankees are in the midst of a 6-1 home stand and stand 7-3 at home following a win. Sabathia is off his best April ever with a record of 4-2, 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 36/10 KBB. The big left hander has gone 7 or more innings in his last 5 starts. In 11 starts against Oakland, Sabathia is 6-1 with a 2.47 ERA including a 1.80 ERA in his last 6 starts. In his most recent 3 starts from this mound against Oakland, Sabathia is 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA.
Boston (Doubront) at Texas (Holland) (-125) 8:05 PM ET
3% Texas (Holland) (-125)
Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball with a record of 20-8, 9-3 away. The Red Sox are on current runs of 15-4 and 7-1. Such excellence, however, calls for a return to the norm. It will be no surprise if that happened in this 3 game weekend set at Texas. Doubront is 3-0 and has a 4.24 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. His record against Texas is 0-2 with a 10.32 ERA. The Rangers lost consecutive games last night for the first time this year. That dropped Texas to 8-2/loss, games in which they have outscored the opposition 54-26. Holland enters with a 3.38 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 28/9 KBB. In his last 4 starts vs. Boston, Holland is 4-0 with a 2.22 ERA.
Chicago WS (Axelrod) at Kansas City (Guthrie) (-135) 8:10 PM ET
5% Kansas City (Guthrie) (-135)
I am still not buying the White Sox or Axelrod who is 0-1 with a 3.95 ERA but less than stellar 16/10 KBB. Far prefer the underrated Royals, who stand 15-10 for the year, 8-4 on this field with their hidden gem, Guthrie. In Guthrie’s last 16 starts, he is 8-0 with a 2.44 ERA. Since being traded to KC, the Royals are 5-0 in Guthrie’s starts vs. CWS. In that time frame, Guthrie has a 0.50 ERA with a 28/3 KBB. Ride the Royals momentum as they are 6-2 home/win.
Baltimore (Gonzalez) at LA Angels (Vargas) (-120) 10:05 PM ET
3% Baltimore (Gonzalez) (+110)
Thinking was right on in MLB once again last night and we have 4 Pay for Play games in MLB for Friday including an afternoon delight. Our fortunes in the NBA the last 5 days have not been nearly as rewarding. But I look to turn things around at a time in the NBA Playoffs that has been historically very profitable for this bureau. Don’t miss the NBA Friday Night bounce back.
In this contest, I must continue to play against LAA especially in the role of overpriced favorite. The Angels are playing every bit as poorly as their 10-18 record. That includes entering this contest on a 1-5 slide. Newly acquired Vargas has not been the answer. The Angels have dropped all 5 of his starts in which he has a 4.85 ERA and 1.75 WHIP (actually a positive according to the numbers of the other Angels starters). Despite their turnaround year of last season and their strong start to this year at 17-12, 10-7 away, Baltimore remains underpriced. In your Perception/Reality game of the night, play the Birds as dog at a value price.
NBA
NY Knicks (-2) at Boston 7:00 PM ET ESPN
3% NY Knicks -2
Will Boston be the first team to ever win a series after trailing 0 games to 3. Veteran’s Pierce and Garnett are playing like it inspiring the inexperienced Green to his greatest heights. NY has gone from an overconfident team to a group that has that deer in the headlights look. But it says here that despite all the love that will flow at the Garden tonight, it’s time for the New Yorkers to make a stand. J. R. was horrendous following his suspension game. Look for a huge bounce back game by the NBA 6th Man of the Year as well as a take charge performance from Carmello. With HC Woodson cracking the whip for the type of defensive intensity that held the Celtics to 75 PPG in the first 3 games of this series, the Knicks emerge with a victory tonight closing out the history seeking Celtics.
Indiana at Atlanta (2) 7:00 PM ET ESPN2
3% Atlanta -2
Indiana is a team on the rise playing the type of physical defense that so characterizes success in these NBA Playoffs. With the Hawks having a history of folding their tent in the 1st Round, why not play the Pacers to close out this series. But the home/road dichotomy between these two has been so dominant that it cannot be ignored. In 9 games this season, the home team has emerged with victory on every occasion. That includes Atlanta wins by 3 and 9 in the regular season as well as 21 and 11 on this court in the Playoffs. That runs the Hawks record 113-0 SU on this court vs. Indiana. Atlanta was embarrassed in the 106-83 loss to Indiana on Wednesday night. But in the NBA Playoffs, the zig-zag theory is clear about home teams following a double digit loss. Again, the Hawks will need to beat the better team to survive until Sunday. But history says that will happen.
OKC (-1) at Houston 9:30 PM ET ESPN
3% OKC -1
If not Boston than why not Houston to be the first team in NBA history to win a series after dropping the first 3 games! The loss of Westbrook is looking more and more meaningful as time goes on. OKC won the first game of this series, 120-91. That meant, including the regular season, the Thunder had dropped 120 per game against the Rockets. But since the Westbrook injury in the 2nd quarter of Game #2, this has looked like a different matchup. Though Houston dropped Game #2 and Game #3, each by 3 points, they have rebounded with victories of 2 and 7, the latter being on the strong home court of the Thunder. That means that Houston has played them on even terms since Game #1. It also means the Rockets have covered 4 straight in the series for a total of 29 points. But in the NBA Playoffs, home teams off 3 or more consecutive spread wins are a high percentage Play Against. With OKC still a league-best 17-6 ATS/loss and HC Brooks 105-64 ATS with revenge, look for wounded OKC off consecutive losses to rally behind Durant with a Game #6 win.
LA Clippers at Memphis (-6) 9:30 PM ET ESPN2
4% LA Clippers +6
This play stands whether the Clippers injured Griffin (ankle) plays or not. After dropping the first 2 games of the series in LA, Memphis has stormed back to win 3 games by double digit margins totaling 43 points, by 41 points ATS. Now the Clippers are on the verge of illumination having been embarrassed 3 consecutive times. If there was ever a spot for the zig-zag, this is clearly it. Home teams following 3 consecutive spread wins are a solid Play Against using greater than .600 road teams to -4. In addition, Class A teams off a loss in this price range are a solid 65% play. Off the embarrassing 10 point home loss in which they failed to the spread by 15 points, look for the Clippers to play their most desperate, passionate and intense game of the year in sending this game to LA for Sunday’s finale.
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