5-4-13

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Bulls vs. Nets, Game 7: What bettors need to know

Chicago Bulls vs. Brooklyn Nets (-6.5, 181.5)
Best-of-seven series tied 3-3

The Brooklyn Nets attempt to become the ninth team in NBA history to recover from a 3-1 deficit and win a postseason series when they host the Chicago Bulls in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference first-round series. Chicago looked to be in good shape after its epic triple-overtime victory in Game 4 but the Nets bounced back with two solid efforts, including a 95-92 win on Thursday in Game 6 in Chicago.

The big mystery is who will be healthy enough to play for the Bulls in the series finale. Forward Luol Deng missed Game 6 with an illness and it remains unclear whether he will suit up Saturday. Point guard Kirk Hinrich (calf) missed the last two games and is a game-time decision. Guard Nate Robinson and forward Taj Gibson are battling illnesses and forward Joakim Noah has been plagued for weeks with a foot injury. Meanwhile, former MVP Derrick Rose continues to sit out due to his personal concerns about his knee despite being medically cleared by the club. Brooklyn center Brook Lopez has experienced a superb series and his 17 points in Game 6 represented the first time he didn’t score at least 20. He is averaging 22.5 points.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, Comcast SportsNet Chicago, YES (Brooklyn)

ABOUT THE BULLS: Game 4 star Nate Robinson was so ill during Game 6 that he vomited on the bench during timeouts on multiple occasions. Robinson persevered to play nearly 42 minutes and had 18 points, second-most on the squad behind Marco Belinelli’s 22. Robinson has averaged 24 points over the past three games and has stepped up with Hinrich ailing. Forward Carlos Boozer is averaging 17.5 points and 11.2 rebounds and has four double-doubles in the series. Noah has three double-doubles while being physically hampered. “This has been a hard year, a really hard year,” Noah said after Game 6. “But I’m really proud of this team. We’re a team of fighters.”

ABOUT THE NETS: Brooklyn viewed itself as the more-talented squad when the series began and that remains the prevailing belief entering Game 7. “We feel like we’re the better team,” forward Gerald Wallace said. “We feel like we shouldn’t have gotten down 3-1. We feel like just as they won three games in a row, we can win three games in a row.” Point guard Deron Williams has put together three consecutive double-doubles after struggling in Games 2 and 3. Williams is averaging 20 points and 8.7 assists in the series. Shooting guard Joe Johnson is averaging 16.3 points despite playing with a painful foot injury.

TRENDS
* Bulls are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games.
* The over is 6-1 in Bulls last seven on one days rest.
* Over is 4-1 in Nets' last five home games.
* Over is 19-7 in Nets' last 26 overall.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The Bulls are 0-6 when playing a Game 7 on the road while Brooklyn has never overcome a 3-1 playoff series deficit.

2. Nets F Reggie Evans had 15 rebounds in Game 6 and is averaging 12.2 boards in the series.

3. Chicago F Jimmy Butler played all 48 minutes in Game 6 and is averaging 17 points over the last three games.

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Saturday's MLB weather watch: rain in Atlanta

Saturday's game between the Mets and Braves in Atlanta could be postponed due to rain in the forecast.

Here's the rest of the notable weather for Saturday's MLB action:

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs (+115, 7)
Site: Wrigley Field

There's a 20 percent chance of rain at Wrigley.

Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+125, 7)
Site: PNC Park

The wind will blow in from center field at 12 mph.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves (-132, 8)
Site: Turner Field

There's a 100 percent chance of precipitation as rain showers are in the forecast in Atlanta.

Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (NA)
Site: Kauffman Stadium

There's a 30 percent chance of rain in Kansas City

Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers (-142, 9.5)
Site: Ballpark in Arlington

The wind will blow out to right field at 13 mph. The under was 5-2 in 2012 in Arlington when the wind blew out to right field.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants (NA)
Site: AT&T Park

The wind will blow out to left field at 11 mph. The Giants were 3-0 at home in 2012 when the wind blew out to left field.

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Three big winners, three big losers pitching on Saturday

Here's a look at three starters on Saturday who have made $1,360 for bettors this year, and three who have cost $1,300.64:

Money winners:

Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks (3-0, 1.91 ERA, $518.21 in five starts)

Corbin has been stellar and his bullpen has been just as helpful. Corbin has allowed only seven earned runs in five starts, while Arizona relievers have given up only three runs after Corbin left the mound.

Kevin Correia, Minnesota Twins (3-1, 2.23 ERA, $337.23 in five starts)

Correia and the 12-12 Twins have cashed three times as heavy underdogs this season against the more public Rangers, Angels and Tigers. He's given up only nine runs in five starts and has walked only five batters.

Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves (1-0, 5.08 ERA, $504.56 in five starts)

The Braves are 5-0 when Teheran is pitching, and his high ERA has made him an underdog three times, cashing twice against Washington at +126 and +115. Atlanta's bats have given Teheran an average of 6.2 runs of support in his starts.

Money losers:

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (1-4, 3.13 ERA, -$459.84 in six starts)

The only win on the board for the Nationals with their ace on the mound came on opening day against the lowly Marlins, when Washington was a -249 favorite. The Nats are giving Strasburg only 1.8 runs of support, below its 27th-ranked average of 3.48 runs per game.

David Price, Tampa Bay Rays (1-2, 5.21 ERA, -$427.01 in six starts)

Price has given up six home runs in April and 16 in all of 2013. The bats are struggling for him as well, producing only 3.6 runs per game in his starts, compared to the team's 4.19 season average.

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies (1-3, 4.78 ERA, -$413.79 in six starts)

Hamels has improved from his early-season struggles. He has a 2.33 ERA in his last four starts. But the struggling Phillies have provided an average of only 2.25 runs in those starts, below the team's season average of 3.69 runs per game.

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Mayweather vs. Guerrero: Long shot popular on Derby day
By JASON LOGAN

What will horse racing and boxing bettors have in common Saturday? They’ll both be looking to score big on the long shot.

Hours after the 139th Kentucky Derby is said and done, Floyd Mayweather Jr. will defend his WBC welterweight title against Robert Guerrero in his return to the ring following a year hiatus which included a two-month jail term for domestic abuse.

Oddsmakers currently have the undefeated Mayweather (43-0, 26 KOs) priced as a -650 favorite and expect those odds to drop with public bettors taking a shot on Guerrero at +475, hoping to cash in on the dark horse. Mayweather’s odds have already been discounted after being offered as high as -1,250 at some markets.

“The way that most casual fans and bettors look to bet long shots blindly in the Kentucky Derby, you'll see same carry over into the boxing ring Saturday night,” renowned boxing and MMA oddsmaker Joey Oddessa told Covers. “Bettors will be looking for a lotto ticket in the ring. Majority of players aren't looking to lay the big price for a small return, no matter how great the favorite is.”

There is plenty of fodder for fans of the underdog. Mayweather is 36 and hasn’t fought since taking a unanimous decision over Miguel Cotto on May 5, 2012. Many boxing analysts believe the clock is ticking on his career and this matchup with Guerrero, a physical southpaw coming off an impressive win versus Andre Berto, will be Mayweather’s undoing.

In past fights with southpaw boxers, like Zab Judah and DeMarcus Corley, the orthodox Mayweather has looked uncomfortable. He was hit hard against Corley but took a unanimous decision win in 2004 and was down on the cards in the early round against Judah before his opponent ran out of gas and was pummeled in the remaining rounds back in 2006.

Those brief moments of weakness aren’t enough to sway oddsmakers when setting the price high on the fighter known as “Money”. Oddessa says even with the jail time, there seems to be less drama surrounding Mayweather’s camp compared to past bouts and that he believes the eight-time title holder is much more mature and smarter heading into Saturday’s fight at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.

“The price on a fight like this is an easy one to make,” says Oddessa. “I come in with strong opinion that Floyd is going to win, but had to make the price high enough to keep the wolves off the favorite while not getting carried out on a stretcher if lightning somehow does strike.”

“I haven't seen any weather report saying lightning is gonna work its way into the MGM Saturday night and don't expect any.”

Prop bettors looking for added value outside of the outright odds can find Mayweather via decision at -163 or by knockout at +200. Guerrero via decision is priced at +1,000 and via KO is at +1,200. The round total is set at 9.5 rounds, with the over at -350 and the under at +250.

Wladimir Klitschko vs. Francesco Pianeta

Wladimir Klitschko puts his WBA Super, IBF, WBO, IBO and The Ring heavyweight titles on the line against Italian fighter Francesco Pianeta at the SAP Arena in Mannheim, Germany Saturday. Oddsmakers have Klitschko set as a monstrous -5,000 favorite against Pianeta (+1,600).

According to Oddessa, there has been little action heading into this bout. Money is either taking a risk on the big underdog or adding the favorite to weekend parlays.

“Klitschko is the right favorite and he should win for fun,” says Oddessa. “It's tough to make it high enough. There may not be a weekend boxing chalk parlay out there without Klitschko in it.”

The round total is set at 8.5, with the over priced at +175 and the under at -250.

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Nets Host Bulls for Game 7 on Saturday Night

Eastern Conference Playoffs First Round
Game 7 - Series tied 3-3
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Brooklyn -6.5, Total: 184

After stealing a Game 6 win at United Center, the Nets will try to complete a their comeback from a 3-1 series deficit on Saturday night when they host the Bulls for a decisive Game 7.

Brooklyn is 4-2 ATS so far in this series, but was a poor home wager in the regular season at 16-23-2 ATS (41%). Chicago was a much better wager on the road at 23-17-1 ATS (58%) during the regular season, compared to a dismal 13-28 ATS (32%) at home. In Thursday's Game 6, Bulls SF Luol Deng was too ill to play after suffering from flu-like symptoms, and watched his team shoot a dismal 40% from the floor. The Nets didn't shoot much better (43% FG), but PG Deron Williams set the tone for Brooklyn, playing 42 minutes and finishing the game with an efficient 17 points (5-of-12 FG) and 11 assists. Game 7 is going to be a hard-fought battle between these two teams, and Deng’s presence (listed as questionable) could give Chicago an extra lift emotionally. The Bulls are 21-17-1 ATS (55%) after an SU loss this season, while the Nets are 26-23-2 ATS (53%) after an SU win.

The Bulls put forth a stellar effort in Game 6, but came up empty-handed in the end. Without SF Luol Deng (13.8 PPG, 7.6 RPG in series), SG Marco Belinelli started in his place and had an excellent performance for Chicago. Belinelli finished with a game-high 22 points (8-of-21 FG, 3-of-9 threes), seven assists and five rebounds in 46 minutes. PG Nate Robinson also played another great game for the Bulls, scoring 18 points (7-of-15 FG) in 42 minutes while also dishing out four assists. The 5-foot-9 Robinson now has 24.0 PPG on 53% FG with 5.3 APG in his past three contests. C Joakim Noah, who has looked a lot better since returning from a foot injury, was struggling shooting the ball around the rim (7-of-16 FG), but he did contribute plenty, with 14 points, 15 rebounds, five assists and five blocks. The Bulls are going to need a better offensive performance out of PF Carlos Boozer in Game 7. Boozer has been the most consistent offensive player for the Bulls in these playoffs (17.5 PPG on 56% FG, 11.2 RPG), but in Game 6, he had just 14 points (7-of-15 FG) to go along with his strong 13 boards. He will need to be more aggressive and maybe the presence of Deng will relieve some pressure from him. SF Jimmy Butler had a well-rounded 17 points, seven rebounds and six assists, but made just 4-of-13 shots. For the series, Butler has been solid with 12.2 PPG on 47% FG (43% threes) and 4.2 RPG.

The Nets have had an up-and-down series. They dominated Game 1, only to look lifeless in Games 2 through 4. But the Nets have now won two straight games with strong defense (91.5 PPG on 44.5% FG allowed), and have committed just 10.0 TOPG during this pair of victories.Deron Williams hasn’t shot well this series (41.6% FG), but has still managed to post three straight double-doubles, averaging 24.0 PPG and 10.3 APG during this stretch. He's done a great job running the offense in the past two victories with 21 assists and just seven turnovers in a combined 80 minutes of action. Williams' great performance on Thursday helped compensate for C Brook Lopez who had somewhat of an off-night with 17 points (7-of-18 FG) and just three rebounds in 37 minutes. Lopez had scored more than 20 points in each of the previous five games in the series and had pulled down 30 rebounds over his previous three contests. SG Joe Johnson had a strong game for Brooklyn on Thursday, scoring 17 points (7-of-13 FG) while also dishing out four assists. For the series, Johnson has 16.3 PPG on 46% FG, but just 30% threes. SF Gerald Wallace has found his game after complaining about his lack of a role with the team. He scored just 7.0 PPG in Games 1-3, but is averaging 14.7 PPG on 52% FG (6-of-12 threes) over the past three contests. Wallace's contributions are making it very difficult to defend Brooklyn in the half court. PF Reggie Evans continues to be a beast on the glass with his fourth straight game of at least a dozen boards on Thursday. For the series, Evans has a paltry 5.0 PPG, but a hefty 12.2 RPG.

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Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

BASEBALL

MINNESOTA -109 CLEVELAND (1PM)

COLORADO +115 TB (8PM)

NHL

Detroit -135 Anaheim

PERRY (SOCCER PLAYS)

Fortuna Duesseldorf (GER-1) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (GER-1) -OVER 2.5-118

Manchester City (ENG-P) vs Swansea (ENG-P) - OVER 2.5-114

Malaga (ESP-P) vs Granada (ESP-P) - UNDER 2.5-116

AS Roma (ITA-A) vs Fiorentina (ITA-A) - OVER 3-127

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Today's NHL Picks

Anaheim at Detroit

The Ducks look to bounce back from their Game 2 loss and take advantage of a Detroit team that is 2-10 in its last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record. Anaheim is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 4 Time Posted 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 79-80: NY Rangers at Washington (12:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.513; Washington 11.406 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-130); 5 Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+110); Over

Game 81-82: Toronto at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 10.297; Boston 11.336 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-185); 5 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-185); Under

Game 83-84: Anaheim at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.568; Detroit 11.631 Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 5 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-135); 5 Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+115); Over

Game 85-86: St. Louis at Los Angeles (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.069; Los Angeles 12.410 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-155); 4 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-155); Under

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

05/04/13 Prediction

Season
Straight Up: 833-391 (.681)
ATS: 658-597 (.524)
ATS Vary Units: 1653-1535 (.519)
Over/Under: 645-611 (.514)
Over/Under Vary Units: 882-812 (.521)

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Game #7
BROOKLYN 97, Chicago 92

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DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

05/04/13 Predictions

Season: 289-183 (.612)

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Game #2
WASHINGTON 3, N.Y. Rangers 2
BOSTON 3, Toronto 2

Western Conference Quarterfinals
Game #3
DETROIT 3, Anaheim 2
St. Louis vs. LOS ANGELES: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Celtics (+1 1/2) Friday. Saturday it’s Verrazano in the Kentucky Derby ($25 win and place).

The deficit is 472 sirignanos.

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Today's NBA Picks

Chicago at Brooklyn

The Bulls look to bounce back from their 95-92 loss in Game 6 and take advantage of a Nets team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following an ATS victory. Chicago is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Nets favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 4 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 555-556: Chicago at Brooklyn (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 118.260; Brooklyn 120.449 Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 2; 185 Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 6 1/2; 181 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+6 1/2); Over

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TD Pucks & Dunks

NBA Dunks #555 Chicago Bulls +6.5 or more (2 Play)
NHL Pucks #79 New York Rangers +120 (2 Play)
Long Ball #956 Pittsburgh Pirates +135 (2 Play)
Long Ball #967 Minnesota Twins -110 (2 Play)

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Hondo

TEXAS

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Guaranteed Pick: John Ryan

Game: Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels May 4 2013 4:05PM
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

Reason: 25* graded play on the Baltimore Orioles as they take on the LA Angels in AL MLB action set to start at 4:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Orioles will secure this road win. The Angels offense is starting to crank up and they are climbing the ranks in the majority of offensive team categories. However, their pitching remains absent from any resemblance of consistency or domination. They rank 29th with a 4.68 ERA and 29th with a 1.476 WHIP on the season. Moreover, they rank 29 with a paltry 1.68 K-BB ratio. Orioles are a solid 15-8 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in road games when facing an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game over the last 2 seasons; 12-4 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in road games when facing a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons; 23-5 (+20.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 over the last 2 seasons. Angels are just 5-14 (-12.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season; 2-11 (-11.1 Units) against the money line vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better this season; 3-14 (-13.5 Units) against the money line when facing a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. Orioles are starting the veteran Freddy Garcia, who has posted a 17-4 record with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.104 WHIP in 30 career starts against the Angels. Take the Orioles.