5-4-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi Saturday, May 4, 2013

MLB

LA Dodgers (Magill) at San Francisco (Vogelsong) (-135) 9:05 PM ET

4% San Francisco (Vogelsong)

A quick look at the numbers for Vogelsong this season implies a lack of confidence. There is a 6.23 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. In his most recent outing, he allowed 6 runs on 8 hits with 3 walks in 5 IP. But the site of Dodger Blue indicates a return to form. In 7 starts vs. the Dodgers, Vogelsong has a 1.80 ERA. And it is All Systems Go for the other factors in this contest. Magill comes off his Major League debut in which he allowed just 2 runs on 4 hits with 7 Ks in 6 2/3 IP. This bureau has had great success over the years fading a pitcher on the road following his Major League debut at home. The defending Champs are again playing with momentum. They have won 4 consecutive games including a walk off 2-1 win last night. The Giants are 12-4/win including 8-2 if playing at home. Combined with last night’s results, it sets up what has been a very strong situation in MLB in 2013. In the month of April, greater than or equal to .500 home teams off a win were 84-36. .500 or worse road teams off a loss were 31-68. If this event occurred in the same game, the record for home favorites to -2.00 was 47-17 with an average lay price of -1.35, good for 22 net units of profit. Strong situational play on the Giants today.



Seattle (Iwakuma) at Toronto (Dickey) (-130) 1:05 PM ET

4% Seattle (Iwakuma) (+120)

Our perception/reality game of the day coincides with our underdog play of the day. In the first game of this series, Seattle won 4-0 Friday night. That means the Blue Jays have been outscored 17-2 in losing their last 3 games. Now, the biggest underachiever in MLB is 10-20, 6-11 at home. Yet they are still favored because of the reputation of Dickey, last year’s National League Cy Young winner. But his excellence from last season has not transferred to the American League. Pitching with inflammation in his neck and upper back, Dickey has allowed 7 runs and 6 walks in 13 IP in going 0-2 in his last 2 outings. For the season, he has a 4.50 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. The reality comes in the person of Iwakuma. For the season, Iwakuma has a 1.67 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 37/5 KBB. In his lone appearance against Toronto last season, he allowed 1 run on 4 hits with 13 Ks in 8 IP of a 4-1 victory. Last night’s win boosted Seattle’s series record to 6-1 vs. Toronto. We play the better team with better starter as underdog.



Baltimore (Garcia) at LA Angles (Hanson) (-150) 4:05 PM ET
3% Baltimore (Garcia) (+140)

Hanson has a 3.91 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP but he has pitched well in his last 2 outings since returning from bereavement leave. In those games, he has allowed just 2 runs in 12 IP. In addition, in a pair of appearances against Baltimore, Hanson has a 1.64 ERA. But those gaudy numbers are not about to get us to the Angels side. LAA found an acorn last night when Vargas led them to a 4-0 victory vs. Baltimore, his first quality game of the season. But Baltimore is 5 ½ games better than LAA and has 3 more road wins than the Angels have home wins. Most importantly, Baltimore is 8-3 following a loss this season. They send veteran Freddy Garcia to the mound for his first start of the season. Garcia will be pitching for his 6th team in the last 15 years. Last season while pitching for NYY, he was 7-6 with a 5.20 ERA. But his work in the Minors this season showed a record of 4-0 with a 2.67 ERA including a 1.69 ERA in his last 2 outings. And check out this phenomenal history, Garcia is 17-3 with a 2.63 ERA in 29 starts vs. LAA. Baltimore a clear choice for this underdog price.



Chicago WS (Axelrod) at Kansas City (Guthrie) (-140) 7:10 PM ET
5% Kansas City (Guthrie) (-140)

I am still not buying the White Sox or Axelrod who is 0-1 with a 3.95 ERA but less than stellar 16/10 KBB. Far prefer the underrated Royals, who stand 15-10 for the year, 8-4 on this field with their hidden gem, Guthrie. In Guthrie’s last 16 starts, he is 8-0 with a 2.44 ERA. Since being traded to KC, the Royals are 5-0 in Guthrie’s starts vs. CWS. In that time frame, Guthrie has a 0.50 ERA with a 28/3 KBB. Ride the Royals momentum as they are 6-2 home/win.



Boston (Lackey) at Texas (Ogando) (-140) 8:00 PM ET

4% Texas (Ogando) (-140)

No American League team has played better than .600 ball in the last 3 seasons. It is only the end of the 5th week of play but the Red Sox are the only team in MLB who is more than 1 game better than .600 as we enter today’s play. As I mentioned in last night’s winning selection with Texas, the Red Sox return to the norm is imminent. This in the face of recent records of 15-5, 7-2 and the fact they are 6-2 following a loss. For today, they send over-the-hill starter Lackey to the mound. In 10 games vs. Texas, Lackey has a 9.34 ERA and a .367 BAA. After erupting for a season best 18 hits last night to break their recent offensive mini-funk, look for Texas to tee off on Lackey early and often. The 7-0 victory against the Red Sox last night increased the Rangers record to 9-3 in this series. Tonight they send Ogando to the mound with a 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 27/12 KBB. That record has been virtually all on the road. Tonight he makes just his 2nd home start. His first outing from this mound saw him allow just 1 run on 3 hits in 5 1/3 IP victory against Tampa Bay.



NBA

Chicago at Brooklyn (-7) 8:00 PM ET TNT

3% Chicago +7

Last night, all 4 Game #6 teams leading their series 3-2 closed out the series making this the only Game #7 of Round #1. Trailing 3 games to 1 following their triple OT defeat in Chicago, it looked like Brooklyn was dead in the water. It seemed unlikely that this franchise, which was making a rare Playoff appearance, would have the experience to come back from a 1-3 hole. After all, only 8 teams have rallied from that deficit, none since 2006. But the talent has surfaced with quality net players Lopez, Joe Johnson, D. Will and Wallace stepping up their games. With Blatche and Watson making meaningful contributions off the bench, it is clear that Brooklyn is the more talented team. That is particularly true depending on Chicago’s walking wounded. Hinrich (calf) along with Deng, Robinson and Gibson (all with the flu) were all compromised the last 2 games. But the contention from this bureau is that with the better coaching of Thibodeau vs. Carlesimo, the better defense and the heart that the Bulls have shown in the face of adversity this season will all rise to the top making this game a lot closer than the 7 point impost.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer MLB Money Line Sat, 05/04/13 - 4:05 PM

double-dime bet - 953 STL (-119) vs 954 MIL

Analysis: I'm backing the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday afternoon. The Cardinals "drew first blood" in this NL Central series last night when they whipped former Redbird hurler Kyle Lohse in a 6-1 final. St. Louis will look to Adam Wainwright in this one. The Cardinal righty is off to a great start in 2013, owning outstanding numbers in his six trips to the bump. Wainwright has a career 1.93 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and .188 BAA in 25 lifetime appearances (18 starts) against the Brewers, including a complete game shutout win on April 13. Wainwright struck out a dozen batters in the win and it should be noted that Brewer slugger Ryan Braun is hitting just .184 lifetime against the Cardinal "ace." Yovani Gallardo takes the bump for the Brewers - but while he's been on a bit of a "heater" he's simply been pounded in his career against St. Louis, saddled with a 1-11 mark and a 6.86 ERA, including one postseason start. In fact, the Redbirds are 13-3 against Milwaukee the 16 times they have faced Gallardo, including 5-0 at Miller Park. They're also on a 5-0 overall road run after Friday's win. The Brewers are 7-20 when Gallardo is listed as an underdog. He and they simply don't "over-achieve." Look for the Cardinals to continue their dominance. I'm backing St. Louis on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

Please note: The 22-3 combined spots include the Cardinals' 13-3 situation, 5-0 Miller Park spot, and 4-0 road run overall. (4-0 due to last night's overlap).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover | MLB ML - Saturday, May 4 2013 4:05PM
ML 953 STL (-114) 5Dimes vs 954 MIL double-dime bet

Analysis:Yovani Gallardo is one of the better pitchers in the National League - unless he's taking on the Cardinals. Gallardo is 1-10 with a 6.84 in15 starts versus St. Louis. This includes an 0-7 mark with a 9.56 ERA in his last eight starts against the Cardinals.
The Cardinals have won fou ›r in a row and oppose Gallardo with their ace, Adam Wainwright. He's off a tremendous April with a 2.03 ERA and a 43-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
The streaky Brewers have now dropped three in a row and have bullpen issues lacking a reliable setup man and competent middle relievers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc sports
3 units cardinals
4 units mariners

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Cingrani is 2-0, 1.50 in his first three MLB starts.
-- Gallardo is 3-0, 2.75 in his last three starts. Wainwright is 4-1, 1.64 in his last five outings.
-- Locke is 3-0, 1.99 in his last four starts.
-- Hamels is 1-1, 2.33 in his last four starts.
-- Arizona is 5-0 when Corbin starts (3-0, 1.89).
-- McGill allowed two runs in 6.2 IP in his first '13 start, vs Milwaukee.

-- Colon is 2-0, 2.07 in two road starts this season. Hughes is 1-0, 2.70 in his last three starts.
-- Correia is 3-1, 2.23 in his five starts this season.
-- Dickey is 2-2, 2.84 in his last four starts.
-- Hanson is 1-0, 1.50 in his last couple starts.
-- Guthrie is 1-0, 2.75 in his last three starts. Axelrod is 0-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Scherzer is 2-0, 3.71 in his last four starts. Harrell is 3-0, 1.82 in his last four outings.
-- Lackey is 1-1, 2.61 in two starts this season.

Cold pitchers
-- Samardzija is 0-4, 4.55 in his last five starts.
-- Strasburg is 0-4, 5.04 in his last five starts.
-- Fernandez is 0-2, 7.62 in his last three starts.
-- Niese is 1-2, 5.40 in his last four starts. Teheran has a 5.93 RA in five starts this season.
-- Richard is 0-2, 13.51 in his last couple starts.
-- Vogelsong is 1-2, 6.82 in five starts this season.

-- Price is 1-1, 5.63 in his last five starts. Garland is 0-2, 7.20 in his last couple starts.

-- Kazmir is 0-1, 8.64 in two starts this season.
-- Saunders is 0-3, 12.51 in his three road starts.
-- 36-year old Garcia is making his first '13 start; he was 0-1, 7.64 in his last four starts LY.
-- Ogando is 0-2, 7.04 in his last three starts.

Totals
-- Under is 7-3 in last ten Cub games.
-- Over is 9-4-1 in Philly's last fourteen home games.
-- Ten of last thirteen Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last six Atlanta home games stayed under total.
-- 12 of 17 games at Miller Park went over the total.
-- Five of last seven San Diego home games went over total.
-- 10 of last 13 Dodger games went over the total.

-- Last four Colorado games went over the total.

-- Six of last nine Seattle road games stayed under total.
-- Over is 24-5 in last 29 Oakland games.
-- Six of last eight Minnesota games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Kansas City games.
-- Over is 6-2-2 in last ten Houston games.
-- Seven of last ten Baltimore games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won seven of their last nine home games.
-- St Louis won eight of its last eleven games.
-- Padres won seven of their last nine games.
-- San Francisco won eight of its last ten home games.

-- A's won four of their last five games. Bronx won nine of its last twelve home games.
-- Kansas City won seven of its last ten games. White Sox won four of their last six road games.
-- Indians won last five games, outscoring foes 46-11.
-- Boston won seven of its last nine games.
-- Detroit won eight of its last ten games.
-- Orioles won ten of their last sixteen games.

Cold teams
-- Washington is 6-8 on the road this year.
-- Milwaukee lost its last three games, allowing 18 runs.
-- Cubs lost nine of their first thirteen home games. Cincinnati lost 10 of its last thirteen on the road.
-- Miami lost 11 of its 14 road games. Phillies are 8-10 in their last 18 games overall.
-- Mets lost six of their last eight games. Atlanta lost seven of last nine.
-- Arizona lost its last four games, allowing 24 runs.
-- Dodgers lost three of their last four games.

-- Rockies lost eight of last twelve games. Tampa Bay is 5-11 on road.

-- Twins are 3-6 in their last eight away games.
-- Blue Jays lost 10 of their last 13 games- they were outscored 17-2 in last three. Seattle lost seven of its last ten road games.
-- Texas lost four of its last six games.
-- Houston lost 15 of its last 19 games.
-- Angels lost seven of their last ten games.

Umpires
-- Cin-Chi-- Eight of last ten Porter games went over the total.
-- StL-Mil-- Favorites won 11 of last 14 Miller games.
-- Wsh-Pitt-- Favorites won last six Hirschbeck games.
-- Mia-Phil-- Under is 8-5-1 in last fourteen Fairchild games.
-- NY-Atl-- Under is 10-4-1 in last fifteen Nauert games.
-- Az-SD-- Favorites won last five Bellino games.
-- LA-SF-- Underdogs of less than +$200 are 21-9 in last 30 Johnson tilts.

-- TB-Colo-- Favorites won eight of last ten Fagan games.

-- A's-NY-- Six of last eight Conroy games stayed under the total.
-- Min-Clev-- Six of last seven Timmons games went over the total.
-- Sea-Tor-- Home side won 13 of last 16 Hickox games.
-- Balt-LA-- Favorites won last five Bell games.
-- Det-Hst-- Visitors won nine of last twelve Barry games.
-- Bos-Tex-- Last four Davis games went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Chicago's health coming into Game 7 is anyone's guess; Deng had scare with meningitis this week, Hinrich has a bum calf, Gibson/Robinson had flu earlier this week and star Rose hasn't played yet this year, despite practicing for over a month and having been cleared to play. In 35 years as the New Jersey Nets, they never once hosted a Game 7, but they host one in their first year in Brooklyn; Nets' three series wins all went over total, their two losses in regulation both stayed under, with Brooklyn scoring 82-76 points. Oh yeah, Noah is playing his heart out despite his having plantar fasciatis. Home favorites are 4-2 in this series. Chicago is 0-6 on road in Game 7's, in their franchise history.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Capitals won 12 of last 14 games to position themselves as one of favorites in the Eastern Conference; they've won seven of last eight home games. Under is 9-0-5 in last 14 series games, as all five pushes ended 3-2. Capitals scored three goals on just nine second period shots to win Game 1; Caps blocked 25 shots, 10 more than NY. Rangers beat Washington in seven games in LY's playoffs, with last six games all decided by a goal, Rangers winning both games that went OT. New York scored 4+ goals in its last five wins, 1-2-2 in its last three losses.

Bruins gave up power play goal 1:54 into Game 1, but won easily 4-1, just their third win in last ten games overall; Boston outshot Maple Leafs 40-20, as Toronto wound up with 39 PIM. It was only second time in last ten games Bruins scored more than two goals; they're 10-1 in last eleven games vs Toronto, winning 4-2/3-2so/4-1 in three played in this building this year. Maple Leafs lost five of last seven games- they're 4-8 in last twelve road games. Over is 9-3-2 in last fourteen series games. D Kostka was -3 for Toronto, not too good in a 4-1 game.

Red Wings got power play goal 1:21 into OT to win Game 2; they were +15 on faceoffs, +8 in blocked shots, and scored three power play goals on six tries. Home teams are 9-5 so far in playoffs, with under 8-4-2; Detroit got split it wanted out in Anaheim, now returns home, where they've won last three games, outscoring opponents 12-3. Anaheim won four of last six games, with under 8-2-1 in their last 11. Ducks won last three road games, allowing total of two goals. Detroit split its last six visits here- they're 9-4 in last 13 games overall with Ducks. Seven of last nine Detroit games stayed under the total.

Defending champ Kings swept Blues 4-0 in LY's playoffs, but now find themselves in 2-0 hole after losing pair of 2-1 decisions in St Louis; LA won its last seven home games, last five all by a single goal. Kings outshot Blues 23-15 in first two periods in Game 2, but led just 1-0, then St Louis scored twice in third period, getting winner with 0:51 left. Kings are 9-5 in last 14 series games, winning four of last five here, but Blues won last visit here; St Louis won five in row, 14 of its last 17 games; they allowed one goal in each of last five games. Under is 8-1-1 in Blues' last ten games overall, 5-1-1 in last seven series games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor MLB

Cleveland Indians -113

Chicago Cubs +113

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seabass Report for Saturday;
50 St. Louis Cardinals
50 OVER Mets
50 Oakland

100 St. Louis in NHL
100 Chicago Bulls
He also has a 50 unit series play riding on the Bulls.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

5Lines

Total Line for 05/04/2013
(Won last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Chicago Bulls : o181.5
Cost: -110

Run Line for 05/04/2013
(Won last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Chicago Bulls : +6.5
Cost: -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hoopsgooroo

[965] Oakland Athletics +100 vs New York Yankees
[968] Cleveland Indians -111 vs Minnesota Twins
[969] Seattle Mariners +118 vs Toronto Blue Jays
[967] Minnesota Twins UNDER 9 -115 vs Cleveland Indians
[955] Washington Nationals -135 vs Pittsburgh Pirates
[971] Baltimore Orioles +135 vs Los Angeles Angels
[959] New York Mets +120 vs Atlanta Braves
[977] Boston Red Sox +122 vs Texas Rangers
[980] Colorado Rockies +119 vs Tampa Bay Rays

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES

NBA Basketball Premium Picks

-= TOP PLAY =-

NBA | May 04 '13 (8:05p) CHICAGO GM7 vs BROOKLYN GM7	CHICAGO GM7 +256 at 5dimes
20* Bulls/Nets Game 7 No-Brainer on Chicago Money Line +256 The Chicago Bulls have been left for dead. Everyone has written them off after losing the last two games after taking a 3-1 series lead. This has been the most resilient team in the league over the last few years, and I look for them to win outright in Game 7. Tom Thibodeau is the is the best motivator there is in the NBA. Thibodeau is 23-8 ATS off a home loss as the coach of Chicago. Thibodea is also 25-9 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Chicago. The Bulls are actually coming back to win in this spot 97.6 to 88.9, or by an average of 8.7 points/game. Chicago is one of the best road teams in the league this season at 22-22 away from home. Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Saturday.

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MLB Baseball Premium Picks

MLB | May 04 '13 (8:05p) Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers	Boston Red Sox +130 at 5dimes
15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on John Lackey +130 The Boston Red Sox are showing awesome value as a road underdog to the Texas Rangers tonight. Boston has been the best team in the league at 20-9 this season. The Red Sox will be highly motivated for a victory after losing Game 1 of this series 7-0 to the Rangers. I like their chances of bouncing back behind the underrated John Lackey, who is 1-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.258 WHIP through two starts this season. Alexi Ogando is getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to a fast start this season. He has come back down to reality of late, though, going 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts. The Red Sox are 6-0 in Lackey's last 6 starts with 5 days of rest. Boston is 6-1 in its last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Red Sox Saturday.

MLB | May 04 '13 (8:10p) Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies

Tampa Bay Rays -128 at 5dimes

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -128 With a huge edge on the mound tonight, I'll gladly back the Tampa Bay Rays as a small road favorite over the Colorado Rockies. David Price is in the prime of his career, while Jon Garland is washed up and doesn't belong in the big leagues any more. The 2012 AL Cy Young winner has been below-average to this point of the season, which is why he is undervalued. However, Price has been solid in two recent starts, allowing six earned runs over 15 innings to the Yankees and White Sox. Garland is 2-2 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.387 WHIP through five starts this season. It just goes to show how terrible the Rockies' rotation really is that they had to get Garland to start for them in 2013. This play falls into a system that is 52-13 (80%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (COLORADO) - with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL). Roll with the Rays Saturday

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Handicapper King

5-0 this month

MLB
TORONTO BLUEJAYS

NHL
L.A KINGS

freeloader
Minnesota Twins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LARRY NESS Daytime Dominator

10* ST LOUIS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee won on Friday with the Angels -$125/Orioles.

For Saturday once again "Mr Chalk" is going with the "Chalkest" game on the board the Fightin Phillies -$210/Marlins.

'Mr Chalk" is 4-0 +$400 for the week and 21-7 + $1074 for the 2013 MLB Regular Season.


Ben lee won on Friday with the Grizzles -6/Clippers.

For Saturday Ben lee likes the Bulls +7/Nets only if Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich play If they don't play Ben lee will pass.

Ben lee is 3-2 +$80 for the week and 9-6 +$240 for the NBA 1st Round playoffs.


Ben lee lost with the Canucks -$145/Sharks.

For Saturday Ben lee likes the Kings -$155/Blues.

Ben lee is 1-1 -$45 for the week and the 1st round NHL Playoffs.