5-25-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Capper debate: Does long layoff benefit Spurs or Grizzlies?

The NBA playoff schedule makes about as much sense as Gary Busey with the Western Conference finals playing two games before the Eastern side even got underway.

Now, the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies, who played Game 2 Tuesday don’t play until Saturday – three full days off – while the league pushes the pause button.

The hiatus is a double-edged sword for the Spurs, who hold a 2-0 series lead heading to Memphis for two games.

The time off gives San Antonio’s aging superstars a chance to lick their wounds and rest up. But the break also halts any momentum the team has built by winning the first two games, putting the Grizzlies on their heels heading back home. Oddsmakers have set Memphis as a 5-point home favorite.

We asked some of Covers Experts’ best NBA handicappers which team will the delayed schedule benefit the most heading into Saturday’s Game 3.

“From a rest perspective, it definitely aids the older, more banged-up Spurs but I like the fact the Grizzlies have had a couple of extra days to get over that heartbreaking overtime loss in Game 2, not to mention make the necessary adjustments. Let's face it. They were outplayed for 7-plus quarters in the first two games of the series. The more time they have to prepare for Game 3, the better as far as I'm concerned.” – Sean Murphy

“The Grizzlies now have time to regroup and refocus. But does this team have another epic come-from-behind, series-clinching effort left in it after going down early in its first two series? One thing we do know: The Spurs are just 20-21 ATS away from friendly confines this year, while the Grizzlies are 22-18-1 in front of the home town crowd.” – Art Aronson

“You could make a case for it helping both teams. The Spurs have older players that need the rest, while Memphis now has time to regroup after a huge comeback and eventual overtime loss in the last game. Layoff is probably good for both teams, so a wash overall as far as handicapping goes.” – Steve Merril

“Clearly favors San Antonio. The Spurs stars are older, need more rest. And San Antonio is more banged up than Memphis as well, the rest will help them heal. Lastly, Coach Pop with extra time to prepare is not a factor to take lightly. Spurs get the edge.” – Teddy Covers

“While every game is a snowflake and has its own characteristics, the database points out that home teams tend to benefit in Game 3 of a playoff series playing with three or more days of rest, going 40-23 SU and 36-27 ATS since 1991. When they are down 0-2 in the series, the host improves to 20-10 SU and 18-12 ATS in this situation. On the other hand, the Spurs have performed well in games with three or more days of rest this season, going 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS.” – Marc Lawrence

“San Antonio is 5-3 ATS when playing with three-days rest this season and is 9-7 ATS in that role the last three years. Memphis is just 3-4 ATS this year, but 9-5 ATS the last three years. So the difference seems negligible.” – Bryan Power

“The extra time off here benefits the Spurs the most, in our eyes. Forget about the momentum angle. This is the most well-coached and veteran team in the league and they have seen every possible scenario in the past. Not saying they will win or even cover here, but there isn't a lot that can faze a team like San Antonio that has seen it all before. Memphis is younger, but this is a solid club, and the Grizzlies should be able to pick up right where they left off after their comeback in Game 2. The time off will probably benefit their No. 1 points-allowed defense. Should be a great game.” – Doc’s Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Grizzlies Try to Avoid 0-3 Hole to Spurs on Saturday

Western Conference Finals
Game 3 - San Antonio leads series 2-0
Tip-off: Saturday, 9:05 p.m. ET
Line: Memphis -5, Total: 177.5

The Grizzlies look to climb back into the Western Conference Finals with the Spurs when the series shifts to FedEx Forum on Saturday night for Game 3.

Memphis nearly pulled off an amazing comeback in Tuesday's Game 2, erasing an 18-point deficit with 14 minutes to play by outscoring San Antonio 31-13 for the remainder of regulation before losing 93-89 in overtime. Once again, the Spurs shot much better from the floor (43.4% FG to 34.0% FG), but the Grizzlies kept it close with a 60-46 rebounding advantage and 19 offensive boards. San Antonio has now won four straight games SU, but is just 4-4 ATS in the past eight contests. Although Memphis trails the series 2-0, the club is now 11-1 ATS in the past dozen games. The Spurs have been excellent on the road this postseason, going 4-1 (SU and ATS) with all four victories coming by double-digits. But the Grizzlies haven't lost on their home floor during these playoffs, going 5-0 (SU and ATS) and holding these opponents to a mere 89.6 PPG on 42% FG (33% threes). San Antonio is a strong 8-1 SU (5-4 ATS) with at least three off-days in between games this season, while Memphis is a poor 3-5 (SU and ATS) with this excess rest.

The Spurs have been very efficient on offense during their four-game win streak, averaging 100.3 PPG on 48% FG and 43% threes. The team has also tallied 28.5 APG and just 12.0 TOPG during this span, which equates to a stellar 2.38 Ast/TO ratio. In Tuesday's win, San Antonio recorded assists on 81% (29-of-36) of its field-goal attempts. The defense has also been strong during the win surge, holding opponents to 86.3 PPG on 40% FG (33% threes). In Game 2, the Spurs blocked 12 shots, which helped lead to Memphis' awful 34% FG clip. All five San Antonio starters scored more than 10 points on Tuesday, led by PF Tim Duncan's 17 points (6-of-14 FG), which was a huge improvement from his six points (3-of-9 FG) in Game 1. Duncan also added nine rebounds, four blocks and two steals to give him a game-high +22 rating. PG Tony Parker didn’t shoot well (6-for-20 FG) to get his 15 points, but he dished out a playoff career-high 18 assists and committed just two turnovers in his 42 minutes, giving him 27 assists and five turnovers for the series. He also had five boards and three steals. SF Kawhi Leonard tallied his 11th straight double-figure scoring game with 12 points, and his nine rebounds represented a big jump from his meager two boards in 30 minutes of Game 1. SG Danny Green remained hot with 11 points on 4-of-8 FG (3-of-4 threes) and he also added four boards and three blocks. Green has connected on at least 50% of his shots in four straight contests, combining to make 19-of-32 FG (59%) and 11-of-19 threes (58%). C Tiago Splitter was a non-factor in Game 1 with one point and zero rebounds in 17 minutes, but shined on Tuesday with 14 points (6-of-8 FG), four rebounds and two blocks. SG Manu Ginobili finally made at least half of his shots for the first time in nine games, connecting on 3-of-6 tries. He scored 15.3 PPG in the first four games of the Golden State series, but has averaged just 7.5 PPG on 33% FG in the past four contests. San Antonio's bench provided a huge boost in Game 1 with a combined +47 rating, but that dropped to minus-31 rating on Tuesday.

The Grizzlies offense has really struggled since the first round of the playoffs, scoring just 91.4 PPG on 40% FG over seven games. In this series, the team has a paltry 86.0 PPG on 38% FG. But the defense is still capable of winning games for this club, holding three of the five playoff visitors to 83 points or less. The one big consistency for Memphis has been its ball-handling, as the club averages 19.5 APG and 10.6 TOPG for the entire postseason, which equates to a strong 1.83 Ast/TO ratio. In the past nine games, the Grizzlies have not committed more than 12 turnovers in any contest. After a miserable Game 1 performance (2 pts, 1-of-8 FG, minus-28 rating), PF Zach Randolph was a monster down low on Tuesday with 15 points and 18 rebounds (7 offensive). But once again, he shot terribly from the floor (6-for-18 FG) and connected on just 3-of-8 free throws. C Marc Gasol also produced a double-double with 12 points and 14 rebounds, plus four assists and two blocks, but made just 4-of-12 shots. PG Mike Conley was the only starter that didn't shoot poorly (6-of-14 FG), as he finished with 18 points and four assists in his 35 minutes of action. SG Tony Allen (2-of-11 FG) and SF Tayshaun Prince (1-of-5 FG) combined for just 10 points and a minus-27 rating in Game 2. With these two starters having subpar games, reserves PG Jerryd Bayless and SF Quincy Pondexter were able to pick up their slack and help greatly during the Memphis comeback. Bayless had a team-high-tying 18 points while Pondexter finished with seven points and nine rebounds.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Fezzick

(BLP) Best Bet

2 Star Spurs/Grizzlies Under 178.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Champions League final: What bettors need to know

Two German giants face off in the Champions League final as Bayern Munich will face Borussia Dortmund in the most prestigious match in European club football. Munich was dominant in the Bundesliga campaign winning the league by 25 points over second-placed Dortmund. Of course, the match won't be without subplots as Dortmund star Mario Göetze will be out due to injury. News leaked during the semifinal against Real Madrid that the German international had agreed to terms with Munich and will be joining Dortmund's rivals at season's end.

Odds courtesy of bet365.com.

Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich +375 +310 -133

Site: Wembley Stadium, London, England

Previous meeting (Bundesliga): Borussia Dortmund 1, Bayern Munich 1, May 4

* With Göetze out, star winger Marco Reus could play in a central attacking role behind striker Robert Lewandowski with Kevin Großkreutz moving to Reus' vacated wide-left position.

* Bayern Munich have won six of their previous seven matches in the Champions League and have kept a clean sheet in the last four matches.

* The two clubs have played under the 2.5 goal total in their past three meetings.

* Munich ranks fourth in the Champions League in pass success percentage (85.5) while Dortmund is well behind and ranks 26th (79).r

[Can'tPickAWinner]

marc lawrence

3* memphis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spurs at Grizzlies: What bettors need to know

San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5, 177.5)

Spurs lead best-of-seven series 2-0.

The Memphis Grizzlies are in must-win mode as the Western Conference finals move to the FedExForum for Saturday’s Game 3 against the visiting San Antonio Spurs. The Grizzlies dug themselves out of a 0-2 hole in their first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers and will need to do so again with San Antonio winning two on its homecourt. The Spurs had a 2-0 lead in last season’s West finals before losing four straight to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Memphis put together a late charge before succumbing 93-89 in overtime in Tuesday’s Game 2. The Grizzlies trailed by 18 points with 14 minutes remaining before rallying to force the extra session but were unable to even the series. “We’re down 0-2,” Memphis coach Lionel Hollins said. “We’ve got to go home and take care of business at home. It’s not going to be easy, but that’s where we are.” Spurs point guard Tony Parker set a personal playoff-best with 18 assists in Game 2 but isn’t relaxing over the 2-0 edge. “We understand that we didn’t do anything,” Parker said. “We just protected home court and we have a long way to go because we know we’re playing a very good team.”

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN

ABOUT THE SPURS: Parker also had 15 points and three steals while bettering his previous personal-best for playoff assists by four. He has been playing with a painful left calf injury suffered in the second-round series against the Golden State Warriors and underwent an MRI exam on Thursday. The results displayed the calf contusion is dissipating and the three-day break without a game also should help Parker be more spry for Game 3. He is averaging 17.5 points and 13.5 assists in the series. Guard Danny Green has been stellar from long range and is 9-for-14 from behind the arc over San Antonio’s last three playoff games, while power forward Tim Duncan has blocked six shots despite shooting 9-for-23 from the field over the first two games.

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Power forward Zach Randolph finally got his game going in the second half of Game 2. He had just four points on 2-of-18 shooting over the first six quarters of the series before finding room to operate during Memphis’ second-half comeback. Randolph finished with 15 points and 18 rebounds – including seven on the offensive boards – and center Marc Gasol also had a double-double with 12 points and 14 rebounds. The Grizzlies need their star post players to find their shooting touch – Gasol is 11-for-28 from the field and Randolph is 7-for-26.

TRENDS:

* Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.
* Over is 5-0 in Spurs’ last five Conference Finals games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. San Antonio has made 23 3-pointers in the series – including a franchise postseason-record 14 in Game 1.

2. The Grizzlies outrebounded the Spurs 60-46 in Game 2, led by a 19-4 edge on the offensive glass.

3. Spurs G Manu Ginobili failed to reach double digits in either of the first two games and has just one 20-point outing in San Antonio’s 12 playoff games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's NHL playoffs: What bettors need to know

New York Rangers at Boston Bruins (-145, 5)

Bruins lead best-of-seven series 3-1.

Tuukka Rask tripped over his own skates in Game 4, opening the door for the New York Rangers in their Eastern Conference second-round series. Rask would like to end the threat and lift the fourth-seeded Boston Bruins into the conference finals when the teams reconvene at TD Garden on Saturday. Rask's gaffe gave sixth-seeded New York a lift before former Boston College star Chris Kreider scored 7:03 into overtime as the Rangers skated to a 4-3 triumph on Thursday.

While Rask didn't have much of a chance on the final tally, he did his best to keep the first one in perspective. "You can either cry about it - or laugh about it," Rask said on Friday. "I choose to have a sense of humor." With a 1-5 mark away from Madison Square Garden, New York is hardly laughing about its road record in the playoffs.

TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, NBC Sports, TSN, RDS

ABOUT THE RANGERS: Brian Boyle scored the team's first power-play goal of the series and third of the postseason midway through the third period of Game 4. Defenseman Ryan McDonagh helped set up the tally and logged over 3 1/2 minutes of ice time with the man advantage. "I think he helped us (in Game 4) on the power play," New York coach John Tortorella said of McDonagh. "It's me. I (messed) that up not using him early enough and I should have." Veteran Brad Richards, who was a healthy scratch in Game 4, was missing from practice on Friday and will likely miss his second straight contest.

ABOUT THE BRUINS: Defenseman Torey Krug has provided a jolt to Boston's ailing power play. The defenseman has scored two of his team's three goals with the man advantage during the series while also scoring in three of the last four games overall. "I think that we're just not passing up those good opportunities," Krug said of the team's improving performance on the power play. "You'd see sometimes in the past we'd be passing the puck and we'd want to make that extra pass. But this time, we're shooting pucks, we're getting pucks to the net, and guys are taking away Henrik's (Lundqvist) ice."

TRENDS:

* Rangers are 1-5 in their last six road games.
* Bruins are 0-7 in their last seven Saturday games.
* Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

OVERTIME

1. Boston Ds Dennis Seidenberg and Wade Redden skated with the team during Friday's practice. Seidenberg is dealing with a lower-body injury while Redden has been sidelined with an undisclosed ailment.

2. The Rangers are 6-1 in their last seven elimination games - including 3-0 in 2013.

3. Should New York emerge victorious, Game 6 will be at Madison Square Garden on Monday.

Detroit Red Wings at Chicago Blackhawks preview to come.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Upset watch: Red Wings' odds on the move

The Detroit Red Wings are just one win away from defying the odds and bouncing the heavily-favored Chicago Blackhawks from the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The Red Wings took a commanding 3-1 series lead with a 2-0 victory in Game 4 of their second-round playoff series with the Blackhawks. Detroit opened as a +260 underdog in the series and is now a -375 favorite after picking up three straight wins over Chicago. The Red Wings are now 7-4 straight up and 2-4-5 over/under in the playoffs to date.

Detroit’s Stanley Cup futures are also on the move. The Wings opened at +3,000 entering the postseason, but oddsmakers were forced to move their number to +1,300 after their improbable come-from-behind win over the Anaheim Ducks in Round 1. Now that number sits at +500 ahead of Game 5.

The Blackhawks are -197 favorites in Game 5 at the United Center on Saturday and linesmakers have set a total of 5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Home crowd has huge impact on Froch vs. Kessler 2
By JASON LOGAN

Home-field advantage is usually reserved for spots like Cameron Indoor Stadium at Duke or CenturyLink Field in Seattle. Boxing bettors, however, are putting a lot of weight into the venue for this weekend’s rematch between Carl Froch and Mikkel Kessler.

Froch (-245) collides with Kessler (+205) at the O2 Arena in London, giving the native of Nottingham, England a decisive hometown edge. Partisan crowds are no twist for fight fans but with the way the venue impacted the outcome of the first meeting between Froch and Kessler, it’s no wonder the money is siding with the Britt.

Kessler took a unanimous decision win over Froch in his home country of Denmark during the Super Six World Boxing Classic in April 2010. While the judges sided in Kessler’s favor, 116–112, 115–113 and 117–111, many others scored a closer bout with even some siding with Froch.

“Sharper players accounted for the venues in all the Super Six tournament bouts and bet accordingly,” renowned boxing oddsmaker Joey Oddessa told Covers. “They bet Kessler in Denmark in 2010 and now Froch is seeing heavy action with home-field advantage. I'd be surprised if Kessler won on the road. A loss sets up a trilogy while a Froch loss at home can put a big dent in Froch's current stock.”

Since losing to Kessler, Froch has gone on to a 4-1 record. He’s coming off back-to-back wins over Lucian Bute and Yusaf Mack, scoring a KO victory in both bouts which were held in his hometown of Nottingham.

Kessler has also benefited from friendly confines since his win over Froch. He’s won three straight fights, all of which have come via KO and all have been hosted in his home country. His lone career blemishes have both come outside of Denmark – losing to Andre Ward in California and Joe Calzaghe in Wales.

The judges for Saturday’s super middleweight title bout are from Venezuela, France, and the United States and the referee is a native of the U.S. with plenty of international experience. But while these are all unbiased officials, Oddessa warns that the home crowd can still have a major influence on the outcome.

“All competent officials but crowd, venue, and ultimately revenge all motivate and favor Froch,” he says. “While Froch may have been in tougher opposition recently and taken some shots, it will take the absolute best of Kessler to exit the arena with a draw or a career-defining performance to win the fight. If Froch doesn't stop Kessler late I think he'll coast to a 116-112 or wider decision on the cards.”

Oddsmakers have priced Froch by 12-round decision at +155 while Froch by KO, TKO, DQ is listed at +230.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UFC 160 betting: Velasquez holds mental, statistical edge over Silva
By MMAODDSBREAKER

UFC 160: Antonio Silva (+435) vs. Cain Velasquez (-635)

If this bout looks familiar, it’s because almost a year ago Cain Velasquez painted the Octagon red with Antonio Silva’s blood at UFC 146.

But “Bigfoot” Silva has also done the improbable to get back here. After being a mild underdog against Travis Browne (+190), then a big underdog against Alistair Overeem (+390), Silva is now a huge underdog in his rematch with Velasquez (+550).

Despite a two-fight win streak and a win over one of the greatest heavyweights of all time in Fedor Emelianenko, we all seem to still be ignoring the existence of Bigfoot. So let’s look at the stat line and see if that’s justified.

Tale of tape:

These are heavyweights, and they go large. But Silva will be the larger fighter with a height and reach advantage. But Silva is also the older of the two and pushing 34, approaching a risky range for knockouts. This looks like a wash to me, or perhaps a slight physical advantage to Silva that he won’t be able to back up for long.

Standup:

While Silva has a very slight edge in striking accuracy, it’s the more important metrics of pace and power that give a big advantage to Velasquez. Velasquez can outpace the bigger, slower Silva out of the gates and the knockdown ratings favor the champ both in his fists and in his chin.

Don’t let the raw number of the defensive knockdown stat fool you. Bigfoot is three times as likely to get dropped by a landed power head strike than Velasquez. The chin of a fighter is more important than ever in heavyweight fights. If this stays standing, Bigfoot will still have the heavyweight puncher’s chance, but per exchange Velasquez will likely do more damage.

Ground:

On the ground is where it gets worse. Velasquez has been completely dominant on the ground, and frequently looks to take the fight there to work ground and pound. While Silva once used ground and pound against Fedor, putting Velasquez on his back will be very difficult. Though Silva has a black belt in BJJ, both his recent losses are against strong wrestlers (Cormier and Velasquez).

Prediction:

It may not be the answer promoters want to hear, but this fight should strongly resemble the first. Velasquez can take and win this fight anywhere and he has the stamina to do it round after round. But given how powerful he is, the end should come much sooner than the championship rounds.

[Biggamepicks]

MLB SIDES - SATURDAY, MAY 25, 2013
PITTSBURGH PIRATES at MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Pitchers:
PITTSBURGH PIRATES: JEFF LOCKE (L) ERA: 2.73 W/L: 4-1
MILWAUKEE BREWERS: MICHAEL FIERS (R) ERA: 10.80 W/L: 0-1
Key Trends:
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home
For the Pirates, Jeff Locke has given up three runs or fewer in each of his four starts this month. He's 4-1 on the season with a 2.73 ERA. In his only career start against the Brewers, Locke gave up three runs and seven hits in six innings of work. It is also noteworthy that Pittsburgh relievers led baseball with a 2.74 ERA entering play on Friday.
For the Brewers, Michael Fiers will make his first start for the Brewers since April 6 after being demoted to Triple-A Nashville later that month. He has made five appearances in relief since returning to the Brewers on May 12. The Brewers' rotation as a whole is struggling with injuries and performance. Brewers starters have a collective 5.28 ERA, ranking 27th in baseball.
Remember, the trend is your friend:
RECOMMENDATION: PITTSBURGH PIRATES on the money line (+116)

http://www.sportscapping.com/jeffrey-brandes.html

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

"Mr Chalk" won on Friday with the Diamondbacks -$140/Padres.

On Saturday "Mr Chalk" is once again on the Diamondbacks -$133/Padres part deux.

"Mr Chalk" is 2-1 + $0 for the week 29-16 + $250 for the 2013 Regular Season.


Ben lee won outright on Friday with the Pacers +7/Heat.

Ben lee likes the Grizzles -5/Spurs on Saturday.

Ben lee is 1-1 -$10 for the week 14-10 +$290 for the NBA Conference Playoffs.


Ben lee won on Friday with a "Heavy Chalk" play on the Penguins-$220/Senators.

For Saturday Ben lee likes some more "Heavy Chalk" and is going with the Blackhawks -$200/Red Wings.

Ben lee is 3-1 +$175 for the week and 10-3 +$530 for the NHL Playoffs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

05/25/13 Prediction

Season
Straight Up: 851-400 (.680)
ATS: 666-616 (.520)
ATS Vary Units: 1662-1570 (.514)
Over/Under: 659-623 (.514)
Over/Under Vary Units: 911-839 (.521)

Western Conference Finals
Game #3
MEMPHIS 97, San Antonio 91

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

05/25/13 Predictions

Season: 312-193 (.618)

Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game #5
BOSTON 3, N.Y. Rangers 2

Western Conference Semifinals
Game #5
CHICAGO 3, Detroit 2