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Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 in non-conference games
188-113 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.5% 63.7 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )
NBA May 25 '13 (9:00p)
SAN ANTONIO GM3 vs MEMPHIS GM3
20* Grizzlies/Spurs Game 3 No-Brainer on Memphis -5
This is a must-win game for the Memphis Grizzlies. After falling short in overtime in Game 2, the Grizzlies find themselves down 2-0. I look for them to play with a sense of urgency, while the Spurs take their foot off of the gas just enough tonight to allow Memphis to win and cover.
Memphis has been one of the best home teams in the league all season. It has gone 37-9 SU & 28-16 ATS at home this year. In fact, the Grizzlies have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the playoffs at home, beating the Clippers by 12, 21 and 10 points, and topping the Thunder by 6 points twice.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent meeting as well. The home team has won seven straight meetings between Memphis and San Antonio. Tony Parker continues to be bothered by an injured calf, while Memphis is 100% healthy coming into this one.
The Grizzlies are 21-5 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Memphis is 14-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. The Grizzlies are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Bet Memphis in Game 3 Saturday.
909 STL (-105) vs 910 LOS
Analysis: Ted Lilly is going to try it again. But is Ted Lilly ready to try it again? There is plenty of speculation that he just is not in the kind of shape that he needs to be to be a Major League Starter again. He is off the DL with a strained rib cage injury and that's the kind of hurt that requires no throwing while on the DL. He certainly has not been sharp this year to date in just 8 innings thrown over his 2 games and the liklihood of him going deep into this one is not good. There is a lot of talk about how poorly the Cardinals hit lefties but they certainly did last night and this team has scored 4.5 Per 9 verses these Southpaws over their last 10 played. I have seen the Cardinal Pitcher in action and he can be wicked good. He has made a few mistakes in his 2 starts but an Overall solid WHIP of 1.15 for the lefty. The Cardinal Relief core is doing the job of late. The Cardinals are winning games. The Dodgers are not. Lilly's last 8 starts have produced a 6-0-2 OVER Mark. That tells us something. He's just not ready to perform and has not been for a while now..
Game: Detroit at Chicago (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Detroit +175 (moneyline)
The Detroit Red Wings were not supposed to be here, but they closed the season with four straight wins, and clinched a playoffs berth with a win on the last day of the season. Then they went on to shock Anaheim in their opening round playoffs series, and now have an unthinkable 3-1 lead against Chicago. The Red Wings are in their 19th straight playoffs series, and are playing like a playoffs savvy team. They were beaten soundly in Game One by Chicago 4-1, and could have easily folded up shop and moved on, but this team has responded with three straight wins. The three straight losses by Chicago is a first this season, and the last time they dropped three straight was February of last year. The three losses haven't been squeakers either, as they have been outscored 9-2. Chicago simply has not played well, having gone 7-7 in their last 14 games. The Red Wings are 9-2 in their last 11 on one day of rest, and have it all going now. Take Detroit.
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
Pick: San Francisco Giants
The Giants suffered their first loss to the Rockies in 10 straight meetings last night. They'll look to bounce back with LHP Barry Zito on the mound on Saturday. The Giants are 7-1 in Zito's last 8 home starts vs. the Rockies. The Giants are 21-6 in Zito's last 27 starts on grass, and they are 22-9 in their last 30 homes games. The Rockies are 14-27 in their last 40 road games and 4-9 in Nicasio's last 13 road starts. Play the Giants.
2 UNIT = Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers - PIRATES TO WIN (+114)
Listed Pitchers: Locke vs Fiers
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.28 units)
The Pirates dropped the first of this series 2-1 last night but are still 8-2 in their last 10 games overall and an impressive 29-19 on the season (11-10 on the road). Milwaukee is an awful 5-16 in their last 21 games overall which has dropped them to 19-27 on the season and 12-13 at home. The Brewers are just 3-8 in their last 11 home games. The Pirates will send lefty Jeff Locke to the mound who is a solid 4-1 on the season with a 2.73 ERA, .215 OBA and 1.16 WHIP. He went 7 shutout innings vs Houston his last time out giving up just 3 hits. Locke faced the Brewers on May 14th giving up 7 hits and 3 earned runs over 6 innings with 6 strikeouts and just 1 walk in a 4-3 Pittsburgh victory. Mike Fiers will make a spot start for the Brewers, which is his second start of the season. In his first start he went 5 innings giving up 9 hits and 6 earned runs. He is 1-2 with a 5.93 ERA, .286 OBA and 1.39 WHIP this season. He has struck out just 5 over 13.2 innings of work this season with 3 walks and has given up 4 homeruns. Note that the Pirates are 5-2 in Locke's last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150, and the team overall is 10-4 in their last 14 games as an underdog between +110 and +150. Not only are the Brewers just 5-16 in their last 21 overall they are just 1-7 in their last 8 as a favorite, and 0-5 following a win. Locke should do enough this afternoon to hand the league's best bullpen the ball with a lead and I think the Pirates win this one. Take Pittsburgh as underdogs.
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