5-26-13

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Kahne Searches for Another Charlotte win Sunday

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Coca-Cola 600

Sunday, May 26 – 6:00 p.m. EDT
Charlotte Motor Speedway – Concord, NC
NASCAR gets back to its regular schedule after last week’s All-Star Race, staying in Concord, NC for the Coca-Cola 600 on Sunday afternoon. Charlotte Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile, intermediate track completed in 1959 in a quad-oval shape. Every turn has the same 24° banking and straightaways are nearly flat with 5° banking. The frontstretch measures 1,980 feet (.375 miles) while the backstretch is just 1,500 feet (.284 miles). In the past 10 regular-season races at this track, there have been nine different winners, with Kasey Kahne, who won last year's Coca-Cola 600, being the only driver in this span to win twice. Clint Bowyer won the Bank of America 500 last October at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Odds to Win Race

Driver Odds

Jimmie Johnson 9-to-2
Matt Kenseth 6-to-1
Kyle Busch 6-to-1
Denny Hamlin 7-to-1
Kasey Kahne 8-to-1
Jeff Gordon 12-to-1
Brad Keselowski 12-to-1
Carl Edwards 12-to-1
Clint Bowyer 15-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 15-to-1
Greg Biffle 15-to-1
Kevin Harvick 15-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15-to-1
Tony Stewart 30-to-1
Joey Logano 35-to-1
Kurt Busch 35-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver) 50-to-1
Mark Martin 60-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 60-to-1
Jamie McMurray 75-to-1
Juan Montoya 75-to-1
Paul Menard 100-to-1
Aric Almirola 100-to-1
Jeff Burton 100-to-1
Regan Smith 100-to-1
David Ragan 100-to-1
Trevor Bayne 100-to-1
Danica Patrick 100-to-1
Marcos Ambrose 100-to-1
Ryan Newman 100-to-1
Drivers to Watch

Matt Kenseth (6/1) - As the champion of three of the past four intermediate races on the NASCAR circuit this season (Las Vegas, Kansas and Darlington), it's no wonder why Kenseth is getting such short odds. He's also enjoyed racing at Charlotte, capturing his second career win at this track in the 2011 fall race as part of seven career top-5 finishes. And in the past dozen Charlotte races where he's avoided a crash, Kenseth has never placed worse than 14th. The choice may be chalky, but Kenseth is our pick to take home the checkered flag on Sunday.

Kasey Kahne (8/1) - Kahne was our pick to win last year's Coca-Cola 600 and he did just that with 10-to-1 odds. He is now in a great position to rack up his fifth career victory at Charlotte on Sunday, a track where he carries a 9.4 average finish since 2006 with top-8 finishes in 10 of the 14 starts during this span. He's also raced hard on intermediate tracks this season, most notably finishing second at both Las Vegas and Kansas. And last week, he performed admirably in the All-Star race with a fourth-place showing. His odds aren't great, but Kahne is still worthy of a small wager.

Clint Bowyer (15/1) - Last week's 18th-place finish after starting sixth and leading 11 laps was certainly disappointing. But Bowyer is receiving favorable enough odds to bank on him bouncing back and winning a second straight regular-season race at this venue. He may not have the best track record in Charlotte with just four top-10's in 14 starts (16.4 average finish), but Bowyer has tallied an outstanding four top-5's in his past eight races this season.

Ryan Newman (100/1) - Newman is certainly the best longshot on the board, especially considering he received 40-to-1 odds in this race last season. Although he's never won at this track, Newman has claimed an impressive nine Charlotte poles leading to a career 6.9 average start at this venue. He's been unlucky in failing to finish five career Charlotte races (3 engine failures, 2 crashes), the last two of which have ruined his pole position. And if you eliminate Newman's three non-finishes in 2013 (2 crashes, 1 engine failure), he has a quality average finish of 12.8 in his other eight starts. This includes a pair of top-10's at intermediate tracks (Texas and Darlington). These are enough reasons to drop a unit wager on Newman's triple-digit odds.

Joey Logano (35/1) - After finishing second at last week's All-Star race on this same track, Logano provides excellent value at his 35-to-1 odds. He has an impressive average finish of 10.1 with five top-10's in eight career regular-season starts in Charlotte, and Logano has even led a lap in three of these eight starts. Logano also enters the weekend with top-5 finishes in three of his past seven races, including a fifth-place showing at the intermediate track at Fort Worth.

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tom law
royals

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SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +166 over CINCINNATI

1st 5 innings. The price here dictates the play, as Matt Garza is too good and too focused to ignore this take-back on him in the first five frames. We mentioned last time out that Garza, just off the DL, might be the most sought after free-agent pitcher on the market in the off-season. That means cash and plenty of it if he can prove that his pre-injury performance over the past two years wasn’t a fluke. With millions and millions of dollars staring Garza in the face, all he did was go out and one-hit the Pirates in in his season debut in five innings. Garza will be on a strict pitch count again here and thus, the five inning wager. There is not a pitcher in baseball with more at stake than Garza and he’s very aware of his circumstances. He’s focused, determined and oh yeah, he’s also brilliant when he’s on his game. Garza’s solid groundball rate has increased each of the last three years from 40% in 2010 to 46% in 2011 and to 48% last year. Against Pittsburgh in his first start, 70% of batted balls in play were hit on the ground. That level is unsustainable but it is an indication of his dedication to improving his already good skill set.

Johnny Cueto avoided the DL and nagging injuries last year to notch his first 200+ IP campaign, as season-long control gains and second half strikeout rate spike fueled a career year. He held much of his groundball advance from 2011, while making one-time gopheritis problems seem like long ago. Entering a prime age, there was little to criticize about Cueto’s performance a year ago. This year may tell a different story. Cueto has been out since leaving in the fifth inning of his third start April 13 with a strained back muscle, later aggravated by oblique soreness. In his first game back against the Mets, he struck out eight batters in five frames but he also walked four and gave up three runs. Cueto has also been tagged for three jacks in 3½ games and his line-drive rate this year is 25% and that was right in line with the exact same line-drive rate he had in his first game back against New York. His groundball rate in that game was just 33%. The road back and the timing for both these starters is very similar. The difference is that Garza was much sharper in his return and while the Reds are certainly the superior squad here, the Cubbies have a very good chance to be leading after five innings.

St. Louis +126 over LA
Clayton Kershaw needs no introductions. Kershaw has been one of the best and most consistent (85% dominant starts the past two seasons) pitchers in the game. Even with three 200-IP seasons, workload is not an issue, as pitch counts were well managed and he’s off to another great start this season. Clayton Kershaw always gives the Dodgers a great chance of winning. However, he has just five wins in 10 starts because in order to notch wins your offense has to score some runs and the bullpen has to hold up. Both those things could work against the Dodgers here and anytime we can take back a price like this on the Cardinals with Shelby Miller going, you can pencil us in and we make no exception here.

Miller also has five wins in one less start than Kershaw. He has 62 K’s in 57 frames with just 15 walks issued. Miller has a 1.74 ERA to go along with a 0.94 WHIP. Miller has fulfilled his ace potential so far, both on the surface and beneath it and the best news is that current Dodgers have just four career AB’s against him, meaning most of them have never faced him before. By contrast, the Cardinals have seen plenty of Kershaw and current Cardinals have 29 hits in 118 career AB’s against Kershaw for a combined BA of .246. This one has all the makings of a pitcher’s duel that is very likely going to be decided in the late innings or by the pens. That alone makes the Cardinals worthy of a bet and even if Kershaw throws a gem, Miller is very capable of matching it. Definite overlay.

L.A. Angels -1 +106 over KC

It’s very difficult to like the Royals chances here. K.C. has dropped four in a row and eight of its last nine games with only win over that span occurring against the Astros. The Royals have been outscored in the first three games of this series by a count of 17-6 and things don’t figure to get better here. Wade Davis has thrown two quality starts in nine attempts this season and he couldn’t have picked a worse time to face the hot-hitting Halos. Davis has trouble throwing strikes, he has a disturbing 1.95 WHIP and a just as disturbing 5.91 ERA. Davis’s skills are getting worse too. 15% of his batted balls hit in the air have gone yard. His profile is even worse than that with 38%/31%/31% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates. Davis’s confidence is shot and now the Royals have to rely on him to snap an ugly losing streak. That’s unlikely.

Meanwhile, the Angels have reeled off seven in a row and have scored five runs or more in every game. Over that span, the Angels have outscored the opposition 54-18 and they allowed nine runs in one game. Since moving into the rotation covering three starts, Jerome Williams has allowed just four earned runs in 20.2 innings. Williams comes in with a 1.08 WHIP and a 2.53 ERA and has the full skills support of those numbers. In 46 innings overall, Williams has allowed just 38 hits while striking out 29 and walking just 12. His groundball rate his last game was 65% and his overall groundball rate is a solid 48%. The Royals haven’t been able to hit these Angels starters all weekend while the Halos are teeing off on K.C.’s pitching. Hot versus cold gets the call again.

Baltimore -½ +116 over TOR

1st 5 innings. How do you belt out 30 hits over two days and go 0-2? Just ask the Blue Jays, who have seen their bats get hot but against Baltimore, the Jays have not been able to throw the knockout punch against two horrible pitchers over the past two days and as a result, they lost Friday and Saturday. The Blue Jays have also been falling behind early in the game and even in Thursday’s win in the opener of this series, the Jays were down 4-0 early. Baltimore scored nine times in the first three innings on Friday and five runs in the first three innings yesterday. The O’s have now pounded out 112 hits (.301) over their past 10 games to lead the majors in that category. 22 of those hits have left the park and that, too, is tops in the majors. The O’s are obviously seeing the ball well at this venue and have another great chance of putting up some early crooked numbers against Chad Jenkins. Jenkins is just coming off a shoulder injury, which has limited him to only one start this season at New Hampshire (AA) and one start with the Blue Jays. He saw his first big league call-up in '12 and fared reasonably well with a 4.50 ERA in 32 innings. He has a durable 6'4" 230-pound frame with good arm action and mindset on the mound. His fastball and slider are his best pitches, while both his curveball and change-up need further development. Jenkins’ pitching line against Boston last week looks decent on paper but luck played a big role, as many balls were hit hard (27% line-drive rate) but they were hit right at people. He still allowed seven hits in five innings and struck out just two batters. Jenkins is very hittable because his repertoire features two slightly above average pitches and at this level, that’s not good enough. Against these hot-hitting Orioles, Jenkins will play a price.

At age 29, the perseverance Miguel Gonzalez has showed to get to the big leagues is commendable and he has demonstrated that he has enough talent to stick in the Oriole rotation. Gonzalez just came off the 15-day DL (blister) and subsequently five-hit the Yankees in seven frames and it took just 92 pitches to get there. Over his past two starts covering 13 innings, Gonzalez has struck out 10 and walked none. Gonzalez is throwing better than he was last season. His xERA over his past three starts is 3.00. Gonzalez’s line-drive rate is just 16% and his groundball rate is 49%. There is not a pitcher in baseball with more heart and determination than this right-hander and if you ever get a chance you should read his story here. All of Gonzalez’s skills are trending strongly in the right direction and he’s grossly undervalued here in this pitching mismatch. It’s for that reason we will play the Orioles in the first five innings as oppose to spotting a tag in the full game.

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INDIAN COWBOY WNBA

5-Unit play Take #602 Los Angeles Sparks -15 vs Seattle Storm

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BOB BALFE

Heat -2

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SB Professor MLB 5/26

966. Toronto Blue Jays +104
972. Tampa Bay Rays -120
956. Milwaukee Brewers -129

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Seabass Report for Sunday:
50 Cleveland
50 Oakland on run line
50 Angels
200 Miami Heat

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Goodfella

Both double dime
Angels
Orioles


Orioles TT ov 4.5

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Tmc SportsAdvisor

Pacers/Heat Under 182

Angels -120

Braves -135

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The Linesmaker on Sporting News

The Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals have met 2,137 times throughout each of their storied histories with St. Louis holding a slight 1,076-1,043 advantage.

Sunday's game is small in scope given that history, but we have one of the better pitching matchups between the two teams. Shelby Miller vs. Clayton Kershaw might not ever reach the level of Bob Gibson vs. Sandy Koufax, but it's definitely up there with John Tudor vs. Orel Hershiser.

Miller (5-3, 1.74 ERA) and Kershaw (5-2, 1.35 ERA) enter today's contest as two of only six starting pitchers in baseball with an ERA less than 2.00, with Kershaw's 1.35 ERA leading the way. We've had a few hyped pitching duels this season, but since this is late May, given the credentials each pitcher has, it wouldn't be a bold statement to say this is the best pitching matchup of the young season.

The Cardinals are 6-3 behind Miller this season, and in the three combined losses, St. Louis provided only two runs of support. Miller has allowed only 11 earned runs all season.

Before their last starts, Miller and Kershaw were tied for the best ERA in baseball, but Miller gave up three runs at San Diego in a 4-2 loss. Miller had allowed only one run in his previous three starts.

Kershaw is putting up even more dominant numbers. He's allowed just three earned runs over his last five starts (39.2 innings). Still, the Dodgers have compiled a pedestrian 6-4 record behind Kershaw, but he'll be going for a season-best third straight win today.

The one thing bettors have relied on more than anything else with Kershaw is his games will stay UNDER the posted total. Eight of his 10 starts have stayed UNDER, including his last five. The combined score over his last five games has been 10-6, a tally so low bettors feel they should get some kind of bonus for staying well below the number.

Miller's success staying UNDER the total has been almost as good. The Cardinals have stayed UNDER in seven of his nine starts, including his past four.

Miller's UNDER success is graded even higher than Kershaw's when considering the Cardinals (31-17) can actually score some runs and hit the ball consistently, which is why they are in first-place of the NL Central and the Dodgers (20-27) are last in the NL West. Only the Marlins have scored fewer runs than the Dodgers (161).

When breaking down the matchup, we thought the total in the game should have been 6 UNDER -130, and when it came 6.5 flat, we immediately felt there was value. We also like Kershaw to get his third straight win, which would give the Dodgers their fourth series win in their last five on the season.

Mets' misery with Marcum to continue

Shaun Marcum, once considered one of the bright young pitchers in the game, can't seem to get anyone out -- at least when it counts. The Mets have lost five of his six starts this season and are on a five-game losing streak as they attempt to avoid a sweep against the red-hot Braves, winners of eight straight games. Julio Teheran comes off his best outing of the season against the Twins, and Atlanta has won in seven of his eight starts in 2013.

Sunday selections:

Dodgers (Kershaw) -140 vs. Cardinals

Dodgers/Cardinals UNDER 6.5 (-120)

Braves (Teheran) -127 at Mets Pirates (Rodriguez) +115 at Brewers

Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 10 (-110)

Indians/Red Sox OVER 10 (-105)

Angels (Williams) -120 at Royals

Season to date record: 95-82-1 (+1475)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Landau

PHI +147 ..... MIL -130 ..... COL +158 ..... MIN +235 ..... NYY +115 ..... MIA +190

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RICH SPORTS

MLB
1* 952 Cin -1 -133
1* 955 Pit +110
1* 964 Nym +rl -145
1.5* 970 Bos -135
1.5* 972 TB -125
1* 974 Hou - OVER 9
3* 978 Sea -115

NHL
2* 60 SJ OVER 4.5 -135

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Stephen Nover | MLB ML - Sunday, May 26 2013 1:05PM
ML 965 BAL (-120) 5Dimes vs 966 TOR double-dime bet

Stephen Nover | MLB ML - Sunday, May 26 2013 2:10PM
ML 975 ANA (-124) BetOnline vs 976 KAN double-dime bet

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Allen Eastman

4-Unit Play. Take #968 Detroit (-1.5, -115) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, May 26)

The Tigers had a rare home loss last night. I think they will make up for it today. Mike Pelfrey has been hit hard since he came to the American League and has an ERA of 6.69. He is 0-3 in his last three starts and will have trouble with the Tigers lineup today. The Twins have lost nine of their last 10 games. One win won't turn around their troubles. Take the home team here.

2-Unit Play. Take #961 St. Louis (+130) over L.A. Dodgers (4 p.m., Sunday, May 26)

This is the rubber match of this series and the price on the underdog is too good to pass up. The Cardinals can hit Clayton Kershaw. And the Dodgers have been a below .500 team all year. So I don't know why they are such a strong favorite here. The Cardinals are 17-6 in their last 23 games and they are 11-4 in their last 15 road games. Take them in a great value spot.

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Goodfella

Tigers/DBacks moneyline parlay