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Dr. Bob
Monday Opinion
UNDER (180 ½) – San Antonio at MEMPHIS (-3)
6 pm Pacific
Game 2 and game 3 were both under the total heading into overtime and this series has averaged only 177 points per 48 minutes. The pace of the first 3 games has been lower than expected and using the average pace (possessions per 48 minutes) of the first 3 games of this series, with expected scoring efficiencies (points per possession) would yield a predicted total of just 173 points. I’ll lean Under 179 points or higher.
I think the side is tough to pick in this game. Memphis is still 55-22 ATS at home when not favored by 7 points or more (18-6 ATS this season) but teams down 3 games to 0 in a playoff series are just 23-35-3 ATS in game 4, including 2-12-2 ATS as a favorite. However, I don’t see the Grizzlies giving up like most teams do when they’ve lost the first 3 games. My ratings favor Memphis by 2 ½ points, so the line is pretty fair. I have no opinion on the side.
A very nice weather pattern for us here (and of course it being a DAY GAME is good for us here too.) Also these A's thrive off LH pitching. Oakland is hot at the plate right now as well, ande SF starter Bumgarner has not been sharp of late. Let's cash another one on these hot hitting Oakland A's in their "best hitting position" today.
Stephen Nover
triple-dime bet 909 STL (-115) Hilton vs 910 KAN
Analysis:
I realize the oddsmaker can't make James Shields too much of a home 'dog, but still this low is way too low. The Royals have lost their last eight home games.
Adam Wainwright is an outsanding pitcher and the Cardinals are a far superior team to the Royals, who are at their lowest point.
Kansas City is 5-16 in its last 21 games, including dropping nine of 10. The Royals' lone victory during this span was versus Houston. Kansas City is averaging just 2.6 runs during its last 10 games. That puny road production was against the A's, Astros and Angels, too.
St. Louis is 18-6 in its last 24 games. The Cards are 7-2 the past nine times Wainwright has pitched. Wainwright is 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA in his last three starts.
3-unit Play Take #922 Seattle Mariners (-115) vs. San Diego Padres (4:10pm ET) The first rule of Interleague play is to look towards the American League team first. The AL has dominated the NL for years, evidenced by their dominant record against them for the better part of a decade. The Padres and Mariners both look like mediocre below .500 teams with similar records on paper. But by virtue of playing in the tougher league, the M's have played a tougher schedule and that counts for something. Today we'll see two struggling pitchers take the mound - Clayton Richard and Aaron Harang. Richard is 0-4 with an 8.54 ERA and 2.05 WHIP and is making his first start off the 15-day disabled list today. He's walking 5.8 batters per nine innings, while only striking out 4.4. That's about as bad as it gets. On the surface Harang hasn't looked much better with an 8.58 ERA in six starts. But his WHIP is down at 1.55 and he's striking out 8.6 batters per nine innings while only walking 1.6. With numbers like those, his ERA will surely come down and rest somewhere in the 4's. Seattle is the better ballclub overall and has a better pitcher going today. Throw in the fact that they're at home and we get a great price in this one.
STL 909 vs KC 910 -- Over 50% on Kansas City Royals +106
SD 921 vs SEA 922 -- Over 50% on Seattle Mariners -113
LAA 931 vs LAD 932 -- Over 50% on Los Angeles Dodgers +102
ML-Home Wins 45 to 49.9% 67-49, 57.8% +1665 -
NYY 927 vs NYM 928 -- Over 50% on New York Yankees -117
4 STAR TOTALS 95-75, 55.9% +1250 -
CHC 929 vs CHW 930 -- Under 7.5
STL 909 vs KC 910 -- Under 7.5
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