5-28-13

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

MLB
NY Yankees

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JOE GAVAZZI

Philadelphia (Lee) at Boston (Dempster) (-120) 7:10 ET

10* Philadelphia (Lee) (+110)
No questioning that the Red Sox have gotten hot again. After opening the season 20-8, they went 2-9 only to be followed by their current surge of 10-3 to wrest the Division lead from NYY. Such torrid performance cannot be claimed by Dempster. In his previous 3 starts spanning 12 2/3 IP, Dempster has allowed 15 runs and 20 hits. In his most recent outing, Dempster lasted just 3 IP in a 12-3 loss to Cleveland in which he allowed 4 runs with 4 walks in 3 IP. Far prefer Lee behind whom the Phillies have a 4-0 TRGS. In that span, Lee has gone 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA. His season numbers of 1.02 WHIP and 55/13 KBB speak to his seasonal excellence.

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The Linesmakers

The Mets’ Matt Harvey may have come back to earth a bit after a white-hot start to the season, but he’s still among the best pitchers in the National League and remains firmly in the Cy Young conversation.

Since recording the win in his first four outings of the season, Harvey has just one win and five no-decisions over his next six starts. The Mets are 3-3 in those games. One of those no-decisions was a scintillating one-hit, nine-inning effort at home against the White Sox, in which he struck out 12 and walked none. The Mets got the winning run in the 10th inning.

Harvey has yet to be tagged with a loss this year.

Tuesday, Harvey (5-0, 1.93 ERA) faces the Yankees, who send Hiroki Kuroda to the Citi Field mound. Kuroda (6-3, 2.67 ERA) has been solid in his own right, but the Yankees’ makeshift lineup figures to be no match for Harvey.

At -123, Harvey’s a bargain. The opportunity to take this rising star at such a cheap a price won’t present itself often.

Elsewhere on MLB’s exclusively interleague Tuesday slate, the Phillies bring Cliff Lee to Fenway Park to face Boston’s Ryan Dempster.

After an inconsistent first month of the season, Lee has looked like his former self over this last four starts. He’s allowed just four earned runs and is 3-0 over that stretch, and his last outing was a complete-game shutout in Miami.

Two of the Red Sox’s biggest offensive threats have not had a lot of success vs. Lee – David Ortiz is .207 lifetime against Lee, and Jacoby Ellsbury is 1-for-12 off of him.

Dempster, on the other hand, has been getting slapped around this season (2-5, 4.69 ERA) and has given up a combined 15 earned runs over this last three starts. The Red Sox are 1-3 over his last four outings, and he hasn’t picked up a win since May 2.

And Lee is the dog in this spot? When we see the chance to get the better pitcher at plus-money, we’re usually on it.

Tuesday’s selections

Mets (Harvey) -123

Phillies (Lee) +115

Season-to-date record: 99-89-1 (+1045)

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The Linemakers More Experts
Published: May 27, 2013

The Heat made a giant statement in Game 3 and played at a level that the Pacers—and pretty much any team in the NBA—would be hard-pressed to match.

Does Indiana have an answer in Game 4 (8:30 p.m., TNT)?

The Heat opened as 2-point favorites at most Vegas shops for Tuesday’s game at Indiana’s Conseco Fieldhouse. The Wynn sports book was dealing -2 ½ as of Monday evening.

If Miami plays as well as it did in Sunday’s 18-point beat down of the Pacers, that number is way short. The Heat shot 54.5 percent from the field and had only five turnovers. All five starters scored in double figures, and Miami made 24 of 28 free throws. The Heat scored 70 points and opened up a 14-point lead at halftime. They were barely challenged in the second half.

Live odds from seven Vegas sports books.

LeBron James showed off his improved post game, and Indiana had no answer. That’s got to be a concern for Pacers' fans heading into Tuesday’s game. Paul George, clearly, can’t handle James in the post. Pacers coach Frank Vogel must figure out who can. David West isn’t known for his defense, but is a more physical presence that could at least keep James from going straight to the rim.

“They didn’t come down and double me all game, so I just tried to take advantage of it,” James said after Game 3.

Surely, that will change Tuesday night. But James is such an exceptional passer that, if the double-team comes, he’ll be able to find a teammate for an open shot. And his teammates were hot Sunday. Udonis Haslem hit jumper after jumper from the baseline. Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Mario Chalmers, Norris Cole and Ray Allen each connected from the outside as well. That’s what happens when you score 114 points.

The total for Game 4 opened at 184.5. Eight of the last nine Pacers-Heat games have gone over the total.

The Linemakers Lean: The first three games of this series have gone over the total, averaging 201.6 points. We like Game 4 to eclipse the total as well. The games are being played at an up-and-down pace with a plethora of players shooting the ball well. We’ll lean to the Pacers to bounce back as well, but cautiously.

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The Linemakers More Experts
Published: May 28, 2013

The San Jose Sharks and Los Angeles Kings meet Tuesday night in a deciding Game 7 with the winner advancing to the Western Conference finals. The Sharks forced the contest after squeaking out a 2-1 win in Game 6.

The home team has won every game of the series, and the Sharks have looked worse on opposing ice. They have been shut out twice, 2-0 in Game 1 and 3-0 in Game 5, whereas the Kings' losses in San Jose have all been by a single goal.

With home-ice advantage, the Kings are the favorites for Game 7. The total is 4.5 -- a mark the teams have gone over just once in previous six games.

The lines are from LVH as of about 8:00 a.m. P.T. Check our live odds boards for updated odds.

*Denotes goalie start is not confirmed. Goalie starts can be subject to change.

9 PM ET: No. 6 San Jose Sharks at No. 5 Los Angeles Kings

Series tied 3-3.

Puck Line: Sharks +1.5 (-230) ,Kings -1.5 (+200)

Money Line: Sharks +145, Kings -155

Total: 4.5o-130* (This total is a Vegas consensus.)

Goalies: Antti Niemi* (24-12-6, 2.16, .924) vs. Jonathan Quick* (18-13-4, 2.45, .902)

Scoring: The Sharks average 2.41 goals per game. They allow 2.28. The Kings average 2.58 goals per game. They allow 2.22.

Sharks injuries:

RW Martin Havlat (Doubtful)

LW Raffi Torres (Suspended)

Kings injuries:

C Jarret Stoll (Questionable)

D Willie Mitchell (Out)

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Greg Shaker

Tuesday Twitter Play #1: #974 Oakland Athletics Team Total Over 4 -115

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Chicago Syndicate
Top Play Tonight - Detroit Tigers

LA Syndicate Top Plays
Over Dodgers
A's

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Unit Kings

Colorado ML (4 Units)

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Brandon Lang

60 DIME
OFF LINE
MONEY MOVE
Cardinals

BONUS PLAYS

30 DIME
MONEY MOVE
Phillies

10 DIME
PLAYOFF WINNER
#2 IN A ROW
Pacers


Free Play: Yankees/Mets Under

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Sports Money Profit System

#1: Take Minnesota Twins as +116 underdogs on the Money Line against Milwaukee Brewers risking 2% (Diamond and Figaro must start)
Neither of these teams have been very good this season but just because a team hasn't been playing well doesn't necessarily mean there is no value in a particular play. This game is all about match-up and I believe the Twins match up extremely well with the Brewers in this spot.
Milwaukee has dropped 20 of their last 27 games and are just 1-4 in their last 5 home games! What is even more staggering is the fact that Milwaukee is just 1-10 in their last 11 games when slated as a favorite!
Even with Milwaukee struggling as much as they have in May, the line-makers still insist on installing them as the favorites even though they simply aren't winning. Tonight the Brewers will start mid-relief pitcher Alfredo Figaro (0-0, 3.46 ERA). In 15 relief appearances this season, this will be the first time that Figaro has started this season. This is not the first time a mid reliever has been placed in a starting role this season; various other teams have tried this and very rarely has it panned out well. Most of the time relief pitchers do not understand what it is like to start a baseball game and their lack of experience or at least recent experience doing so becomes their undoing. Their typical role is to throw hard and fast and create outs, the starting pitchers' role is more finesse than anything. Often times you will see relief pitchers get tagged early on in ball games and that's what I believe will happen here tonight. The Twins already hit the Brewers hard in last night's game and it should be even easier for them tonight. Add in the fact that Brewers slugger Ryan Braun will more than likely sit out tonight with a sore thumb and that will truly put this team at even more of a disadvantage.
The Twins will send left handed Scott Diamond (3-4, 4.96 ERA) to the mound tonight. I feel that Diamond is a better pitcher than his numbers are suggesting right now simply because he has been asked to pitch against some of the leagues more potent offenses (Detroit, Boston and Baltimore). Diamond however has been solid in his road starts this season where he is 3-0 with a 2.19 ERA and once again those starts have been against some of the better offenses in the league (Detroit twice and Boston).
With the way that the Brewers are struggling right now, this is the perfect opportunity for Diamond to shine (no pun intended). Keep in mind that the Brewers are a horrendous 4-17 against Left-handed starting pitchers so far this season. Finally, it's worth noting that the Twins' bullpen has limited Milwaukee to just 3 earned runs in the last 19 innings, for an ERA of 1.42! Take Minnesota as slight underdogs for the win tonight.

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Jimmy Boyd

5* (NBA) Heat/Pacers UNDER 185.5

4* (MLB) LA Dodgers ML -131

3* (NBA) Indiana Pacers +3

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Joe Gavazzi Tuesday:

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

NBA

Miami (-2-) at Indiana 8:30 ET TNT

3% Indiana +2-

Anyone who witnessed the Miami decapitation of these Pacers on Sunday night must surely question as to whether Indiana can bounce back from such a thrashing. Against the best defense in the Eastern Conference, Miami made repeated forays into the paint more than neutralizing any interior advantage the Pacers had shown in the previous two games. Now, Miami is 47-4 SU recently and has all but been anointed as the Eastern Conference Champ following that victory. But the NBA Playoffs are all about adjustments and it is unlikely that the Pacers, who are clearly the more physical team, will be allowing James and Company to have their way in the paint again tonight. Look for a physical game from Indiana as they reclaim the interior and play with far more intensity and passion as they reestablish a home court on which, prior to the Sunday debacle, they had gone 6-0 SU, ATS in these Playoffs with an average winning margin of 15 PPG.



MLB

Pittsburgh (Gomez) at Detroit (Porcello) (-150) 7:05 ET

3% Pittsburgh (Gomez) (+140)

A 2-3 MLB Monday was characterized by (3) 1 run losses including evening defeats by the Yankees and Angels. Look for the MLB gods to swing our way with a couple of close wins tonight. (6) MLB selections including a pair of 10* plays are joined by the Miami/Indiana NBA winner tonight for a package that will give you a healthy return. Always remember that buying all selections saves you money on your purchase price and increases your profit.

Yesterday Pittsburgh was one of our narrow 1 run losses. I like them at this value price again today. As is the case with many Pirate selections this season, the past does not agree. Detroit is now 6-1 in this series while Porcello is 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA vs. Pittsburgh. In 3 starts with Cleveland against Detroit, Gomez has a 13.50 ERA at this site. But current form is clearly in the Pirates favor as they are a far superior team to recent editions. Though Detroit is now 6-1 recently, that pales in comparison to the Pittsburgh surge of 30-15 and 13-4. Gomez has been reborn as a member of the outstanding Pittsburgh rotation. Since entering the rotation, Pittsburgh has won all 5 Gomez starts. For the season, Gomez has a 2.75 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Porcello has pitched a bit better of late with a 3.24 ERA in his previous 5 starts. But his last outing was a downer in which he returned to the mediocre form that has characterized his career. In an eventual 7-6 victory vs. Minnesota, Porcello allowed 5 runs and 10 hits in 5 IP. Once we get to the late innings, this is all Pittsburgh with a bullpen index advantage of 164-131.



NY Yankees (Kuroda) at NY Mets (Harvey) (-125) 7:10 ET ESPN

3% NY Yankees (Kuroda) (+115)

On consecutive nights, the Mets have rallied to take a lead in the bottom of the 8th then hold on in the 9th with their humble bullpen. Those victories followed a slide in which the Mets had gone 7-21. But last night’s victory does not bode well for the home team who has not won consecutive games in this series since 2010. In fact, the boys from the Bronx are 11-4 in the series outscoring their neighboring borough rivals by 71-40 count. No denying that Harvey is authoring an outstanding season. He is 5-0 with a 1.93 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 74/17 KBB and .169 BAA. But a chink in the armor was revealed in this previous outing when he allowed 4 runs on 9 hits in 6 1/3 IP in an eventual 7-4 loss to Cincinnati. Kuroda has not pitched well at this site with a record of 0-4 and 8.20 ERA. In his previous outing, Kuroda suffered a calf injury when hit by a line drive in the 2nd inning. It resulted in allowing 5 runs on 8 hits in 2+ IP in a 6-3 loss to Baltimore. Now fully recovered, expect the consistent Kuroda to match serve for serve with Harvey as in Kuroda’s previous 8 starts he was 6-1 with a 1.73 ERA. The late innings belong to the Yankees with a grossly divergent Yankees bullpen index edge of 156-115. Yankees as underdog off a loss too good to pass up!



Cleveland (McAllister) at Cincinnati (Latos) (-145) 7:10 ET

3% Cincinnati (Latos) (-145)

McAllister has been a pleasant surprise for Cleveland. He has allowed 3 or less runs in all 9 of his starts. During the recent 18-5 Cleveland run up, the Tribe won all 5 recent starts by McAllister in which he went 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA. But an inspection of his home/road splits finds a divergence characterized by a 2.16 home ERA vs. 3.97 road ERA. Now that the winning streak has ended, Cleveland is on a 1-6 slide, losing their last 4 games by a combined score of 25-12. That victory boosted the Reds series record to 13-4 vs. Cleveland including 5-0 recently in which they have outscored the Tribe 35-16. That victory also boosted the red hot Reds to 13-3 of late and increased their MLB best home record to 19-7. Feel comfortable laying this price behind Latos who is 4-0 with a 3.17 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 55/16 KBB. Late innings belong to the home team with a bullpen index advantage of 148-115 against a quickly declining Cleveland revenge corps.



Philadelphia (Lee) at Boston (Dempster) (-120) 7:10 ET

4% Philadelphia (Lee) (+110)

No questioning that the Red Sox have gotten hot again. After opening the season 20-8, they went 2-9 only to be followed by their current surge of 10-3 to wrest the Division lead from NYY. Such torrid performance cannot be claimed by Dempster. In his previous 3 starts spanning 12 2/3 IP, Dempster has allowed 15 runs and 20 hits. In his most recent outing, Dempster lasted just 3 IP in a 12-3 loss to Cleveland in which he allowed 4 runs with 4 walks in 3 IP. Far prefer Lee behind whom the Phillies have a 4-0 TRGS. In that span, Lee has gone 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA. His season numbers of 1.02 WHIP and 55/13 KBB speak to his seasonal excellence.



St. Louis (Lyons) (-105) at Kansas City (Santana) 8:10 ET

4% St. Louis (Lyons) (-105)

The St. Louis rotation continues to take a beating. Now, 4 former starters Carpenter, Westbrook, Garcia and Gast are all on the DL. Lyons will establish his spot in the rotation if he continues with the excellence of his first outing in which he allowed 1 run in 7 IP vs. San Diego. Santana began the year with an outstanding April but in his last 4 starts, Santana has a 4.71 ERA and is 0-3. In his most recent outing, Santana allowed 5 runs in 7 2/3 IP of a 5-4 loss to the LA Dodgers. Team form and series history clearly comply. St. Louis has the best record in baseball at 33-17 including an MLB best 19-9 on the road. Recently, St. Louis is 19-6 outscoring the opposition 124-78. With last night’s 6-3 series victory, it boosts the Cards record in this series to 17-7, 6-0 recently and 12-3 in this series at this site. KC continues their slide following their 17-10 start. The Royals are now 4-17 of late including 1-10 in which they have totaled only 29 runs. KC has now lost 9 straight home games. With a bullpen index that has slid to 117, the Cardinals may well have a pitching advantage throughout.

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Hoopsgooroo

added
[977] Los Angeles Angels +115 vs Los Angeles Dodgers
[975] San Diego Padres +102 vs Seattle Mariners

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Bob Balfe

Redsox -125

Pacers +3

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ANDRE GOMES

MLB - 957 Baltimore Orioles @ 958 Washington Nationals
(Starting Pitchers: K. Gausman vs N. Karns)
Kevin Gausman didn't have a great MLB debut at Toronto, where I faded him and the Orioles with success. However, he is a top prospect and I expect him to pitch much better tonight, as he was comprehensively nervous on his debut, especially while facing a Blue Jays' lineup that has been simply on fire lately by being #3 in the league with a .862 OPS over the last 14 days. I expect things to be different today. Gausman will have his first MLB experience already on his legs, besides the fact that Washington's offense is struggling without Bryce Harper with just .631 OPS (#28) on the last 14 days.

On the other side, I expect Nathan Karns to struggle on his MLB debut just like Gausman struggles against Toronto. He is coming directly from AA to the MLB and to make things worst, Baltimore's offense is red hot right now! If Toronto is #3 on the league over the last two weeks, Baltimore is #2 with .891 OPS! Besides that, the Orioles are also #2 on the league against RH pitchers with .811 OPS! Therefore, I expect Baltimore to pound Karns and get a comfortable win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 957 Baltimore Orioles ML (w/ K. Gausman)