5-30-13

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Jimmy Boyd

5* (MLB) San Francisco Giants ML -103

3* (MLB) Chicago Cubs ML -105
3* (MLB) Baltimore Orioles ML -127
3* (NBA) Miami Heat -7.5

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vegas steam moves

Texas

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Kyle Hunter

4* Rockies RL

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5Lines

Total Line for 05/30/2013
(Won last 4 games)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Indiana Pacers : o185
Cost: -110

Run Line for 05/30/2013
(Lost last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - Miami Marlins : +1.5
Cost: -105

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JACK JONES

MLB Baseball Premium Picks

MLB | May 30 '13 (7:05p) Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Detroit Tigers -119 at BetOnline
15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -119 The Detroit Tigers should be a much heavier favorite tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'll gladly take advantage and back them in what I believe will be a blowout by the end of the 9th inning in their favor. Doug Fister is having yet another solid season for the Tigers. The right-hander has gone 5-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.265 WHIP through 10 starts this season. Fister will mow down a Pittsburgh lineup that is hitting just .242 and scoring 3.9 runs/game this season. Jeff Locke has had a solid season to this point for the Pirates, but he has yet to face a lineup as potent as the one he'll be up against tonight. The Tigers are hitting .280 and scoring 5.3 runs/game this year, including .287 and 5.6 runs/game against left-handed starters. The Tigers are 37-16 in their last 53 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Detroit is 6-2 in Fister's last 8 starts as a favorite. The Pirates are 42-89 in their last 131 interleague games as an underdog. Roll with the Tigers Thursday.

MLB | May 30 '13 (8:15p) Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals	Kansas City Royals +154 at BMaker
15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +154 The Kansas City Royals are showing solid value as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. The Royals have been struggling of late, which is why they are clearly undervalued tonight despite having one of the most underrated starters in the league on the mound. Jeremy Guthrie has gone 5-3 with a 3.91 ERA through 10 starts this season. The right-hander is coming off an incredible 2012 campaign with the Royals, and he has picked up right where he left off last year. St. Louis should not be this heavily favored considering they are handing the ball to rookie Michael Wacha, who is making his major league debut tonight. He'll be up against a hungry, talented Royals' lineup that will knock him around in his debut. The Royals are 16-5 in Guthrie's last 21 starts overall. Kansas City is 13-3 in Guthrie's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Royals are 10-3 in Guthrie's last 13 starts as an underdog. Take the Royals Thursday.

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NBA Basketball Premium Picks

-= TOP PLAY =-

NBA | May 30 '13 (8:30p) INDIANA GM5 vs MIAMI GM5

MIAMI GM5 -7½-107 at 5dimes

20* Pacers/Heat Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Miami -7.5 The Miami Heat get the nod Thursday in Game 5. I look for a similar dominant performance to their Game 3 effort when they won at Indiana 114-96 after losing Game 2 at home. They'll bounce back in similar fashion following a Game 4 loss tonight. Miami is a ridiculous 42-6 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 8.6 points/game. Indiana is just 22-26 on the road this season, and it will not be able to match the intensity of the Heat playing behind their home fans tonight. The Heat are 12-4 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. It is bouncing back to win by 12.4 points/game in this spot. Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games following a S.U. loss dating back to the regular season. Bet the Heat in Game 5 Thursday.

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GOODFELLA

3 DIME GOM NBA HEAT/PACERS OVER 185
1 Dime St Louis ML

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Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres - PADRES TO WIN (+109) *AFTERNOON START*
Listed Pitchers: Hernandez vs Cashner
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 2.18 units)

The Padres have won 2 of 3 in this interleague series and two straight. Last night San Diego gave up a solo homerun in the top of the ninth to put Seattle ahead, but the Padres tied it and then won in extra innings. The Padres are now 24-28 on the season and have a winning 14-12 home record. The Mariners fall to 22-31 on the year and just 9-19 on the road. Seattle has their ace Felix Hernandez on the mound who is 5-4 on the season with a 2.51 ERA, .244 OBA and 1.09 WHIP. Over his last two starts he hasn’t made it into the 6th inning and has allowed 5 earned runs in each (19 hits over 10.2 innings). The Padres will have Andrew Cashner on the mound who has been solid with a 4-2 record, 3.38 ERA, .241 OBA and 1.22 WHIP. Over his last 4 starts he is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA, and at home he is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA. Despite Hernandez’ solid numbers the Mariners are just 5-6 when he takes the mound, while the Padres are 5-2 when Cashner starts. The Mariners are 28th in team batting average (.231) in May and 27th overall on the year. Take note that the Mariners are just 2-10 in their last 12 games overall and 7-19 in their last 26 road games. Surprisingly they are also just 5-12 in Hernandez’ last 17 starts dating back to last season. The Padres are 9-2 in their last 11 home games vs right handed starter, 13-5 in their last 18 home games overall, 4-0 in Cashner’s last 4 starts overall and 4-1 in his last 5 home starts. Give me the Padres as underdogs this afternoon.

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Arizona at Texas (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Texas -145 (moneyline)

The Texas Rangers will have redemption on their minds when they take on Arizona this afternoon. The Rangers were swept in a doubleheader in Arizona, then got rained out yesterday. The Rangers have been very tough at home where they enter this contest at 15-7, and have a strong history here vs. the Diamondbacks where they are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings. The Rangers are very familiar with Brandon McCarthy as they have beaten him in four of his six starts against them. Justin Grimm has won his last three starts and has been very good at home with an ERA of 2.79. The D-Backs' 28-60 mark in their last 88 as a dog dos not bode well here. Take Texas.

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SB Professor MLB early pick

954. Chicago Cubs +103

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Cappers Access

Heat -7.5
W.Sox -115
Brewers -130

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Dave essler

mlb

cubs under

pittsburgh over

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

MLB
San Francisco Giants (Barry Zito)

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Bryan Leonard

We were going to use this as a paid play but the line movement took it out of our paid play value range

CHICAGO WHITE SOX w/Peavy -110 at CHICAGO CUBS w/Wood
Jake Peavy takes the mound against a team he's had a lot of recent success against while Travis Wood takes the hill for the Cubs. The White Sox have played pretty well over the last two weeks and they're looking to salvage a getaway day game in Wrigley this afternoon. Peavy is 5-1 with a 1.33 ERA over his last six starts against the Cubs and he's really throwing the ball well this season with 63 K in 60.2 innings and a 2.97 ERA over nine starts. The White Sox are 6-3 in his nine starts and seven of them have been quality outings. Peavy has seen an uptick in his ground ball rate, something that should benefit him on a balmy day at Wrigley.

Travis Wood has been overachieving and the regression that we're looking for began last start and could certainly continue over to today. Wood has a BABIP of just .211, despite a career mark of .264. That indicates a lot of luck, especially when you consider that his strikeout percentage is below his career average. His line drive rate is nearly 5% lower than his career number and when you look at all of the stats that need to normalize, you're looking at a pitcher who is due for some serious regression. Wood posted a 14.0% HR/FB rate at Wrigley Field last season and this season it is at just 3.5% because the weather has stayed relatively cool. As temperatures warm up, Wood's ERA and HR rate will go up. With temps expected to be in the 80s with humid conditions and winds blowing out to left at a pretty good clip, today looks like a good bet to be the day that Wood morphs back into the pitcher he's expected to be. His ERA is 2.73, but his FIP is 3.76 and his xFIP is 4.59. The bottom will fall out soon and the weather conditions, and an opposing lineup with a good amount of power, should be triggers.

After winning our Bryan's Diamonds play yesterday and splitting our paid plays we will be passing on Thursday.

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DAVE ESSLER

Thoughts on today's games:

The Yankees have an untested pitcher and have lost four straight. Untested pitcher is -160. Serious disrespect for the Mets and Gee. Mets (RL) or nothing.

Wade Miley hasn't been very good lately, be he can be. Holland has been good. Against bad teams. How often can you get the D-Backs/Miley/potential at +150.

Perhaps too much respect for Peavy or lack of for Wood. White Sox hitting woes and under .500 v/LHP. Wood is a LHP with a WHIP of 1.00.

Early/overnight money on the A's in the PM game, or perhaps really fading Zito. Really think the obvious over is the best play here given the weather. Will wait for lineups.

Early dineros seem to want to fade the Pirates again, showing no love for Fister and a lot for Locke. Can't really disagree with that, but lean over, especially if Martinez catches for the Tigers.

Fading Haren seems to be the early thing to do here, and with the warmth/wind and last nights' bullpen use, the over. My problem with that is the Nats may have scored their weekly allotment of runs last night.

Scott Kazmir is quite capable of beating Homer Bailey.

A year ago would R.A. Dickey have been +150 to anyone? Jays remarkably suck against LHP this year, but Minor CAN give up flyballs and it's hot and humid in Hot-Lanta.

I know Matt Moore is a super pitcher and that the Marlins are not a good team, but Nolasco is their best option and at +160 that's very tempting, since the Rays won't have a DH.

I am curious to see how Macha fares in his debut w/the Cardinals. He's awful young and clearly going to be on a limited pitch count. With St. Louis bullpen, I'd have a hard time backing them and lean over later rather than sooner.

Is Vargas really worth -150 or better against the Dodgers? Lilly is a gamer, but without Kemp I do think the better play is under.

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J.R Stevens SMOOTH44

ALL ARE TOP-RATED (5-STAR OR 5-UNIT)

MLB

(954) CHI-CUBS +105/RRL -1.5 +195

(956) SAN DIEGO +110/RRL -1.5 +255

(960) PITTSBURGH +110/RRL -1.5 +230

(968) CLEVELAND +115/RRL -1.5 +225

(969) TORONTO +140/RRL -1.5 +225

(975) KANSAS CITY +150/RRL -1.5 +240

I really like this card today and see a lot of value--great systems backing all plays!

"RRL" means "Reverse Runline" or "Alternate Runline"
*Play side and reverse runline equally

NBA

(520) MIAMI -7 (-20)

(520) UNDER 186 (-20)

*(-20) means buy half point if necessary.