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NBA action report: Public likes Pacers, sharps sizing up under
Not too many people thought the Eastern Conference finals would be this close, knotted at 2-2 heading into Game 5 Thursday. Oddsmakers are expecting a spirited effort from the Miami Heat, setting them as 7.5-point home favorites after a Game 4 loss.
We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the betting action heading into tonight’s tipoff.
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat – Open: -7.5, 185.5, Move: -7.5, 186
Indiana’s Game 4 win is convincing the betting public, with 65 percent of the early action coming in on the road underdog. But despite that one-sided lean toward the Pacers, books want to hold at the current spread knowing Miami money is on the way.
“We are reluctant to go to -7 just yet because the Heat are such a public team and we believe they will attract a lot of money as we get closer to game time,” Stewart told Covers. “We're going to stand firm at -7.5 for now. “
The total for Game 5 has seen the most movement, jumping from 185.5 to 186. According to Stewart, it’s been nothing but money on the over heading into Thursday night but they don’t want to go much higher, expecting sharp money to pound the under if they do up the total.
“We believe the wiseguys are just waiting for books to respond to all this over money and give them even more value on the under,” says Stewart. So far all four games have flown over the total. But this is Game 5 of a very competitive series that is tied 2-2, with two of the top defensive teams in the league."
“We're fairly confident we're going to get hit with sharp under money if we move our total too high," he adds. "That said, 85 percent of the early action is on the over so the public might force our hand here and have us go to 186.5 or even 187.”
Not too many people thought the Eastern Conference finals would be this close, knotted at 2-2 heading into Game 5 Thursday. Oddsmakers are expecting a spirited effort from the Miami Heat, setting them as 7.5-point home favorites after a Game 4 loss.
We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the betting action heading into tonight’s tipoff.
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat – Open: -7.5, 185.5, Move: -7.5, 186
Indiana’s Game 4 win is convincing the betting public, with 65 percent of the early action coming in on the road underdog. But despite that one-sided lean toward the Pacers, books want to hold at the current spread knowing Miami money is on the way.
“We are reluctant to go to -7 just yet because the Heat are such a public team and we believe they will attract a lot of money as we get closer to game time,” Stewart told Covers. “We're going to stand firm at -7.5 for now. “
The total for Game 5 has seen the most movement, jumping from 185.5 to 186. According to Stewart, it’s been nothing but money on the over heading into Thursday night but they don’t want to go much higher, expecting sharp money to pound the under if they do up the total.
“We believe the wiseguys are just waiting for books to respond to all this over money and give them even more value on the under,” says Stewart. So far all four games have flown over the total. But this is Game 5 of a very competitive series that is tied 2-2, with two of the top defensive teams in the league."
“We're fairly confident we're going to get hit with sharp under money if we move our total too high," he adds. "That said, 85 percent of the early action is on the over so the public might force our hand here and have us go to 186.5 or even 187.”
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