5-31-13

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MLB betting: Three hot 'over' bets on the mound Friday

Friday's major league baseball schedule features a few arms who have seen scorelines go over the total in their most recent outings. If you are looking for some over wagers in the bigs, here are three guys taking the hill that been involved in some high-scoring games.

Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox (6-1, 3.34 ERA)

The over is 3-0 in Lester's last three starts and each of those three games have had a combined score of at least 10. Lester gets the third-highest run support in the American League at 6.36 runs per game. The lefty tossed a complete game one-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays on May 10 but has given up 11 earned runs in the 20 innings he has thrown in his last three outings.

Lester and the BoSox travel to the Bronx to face the New York Yankees Friday.

Derek Holland, Texas Rangers (4-2, 2.97 ERA)

The Rangers haven't gone over the total too often this season but they have in Holland's last three starts. He had one of his least effective outings on May 19, lasting 4 2/3 innings and giving up four earned runs on 106 pitches. Texas has been giving him good support with 4.90 runs per start.

The Rangers start a three-game home series with the Kansas City Royals Friday.

Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners (5-1, 2.35 ERA)

Iwakuma has been quite the revelation for the Mariners. He leads the rotation in ERA at 2.35 and nine of his 11 outings have been quality starts. The Mariners have played over the total in four of his last five appearances including four straight before his last outing, which resulted in a push. Like Holland and Lester, Iwakuma gets plenty of run support with 5.18 runs per start.

The Mariners are on the road to face the Minnesota Twins at Target Field Friday.

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Capping the calendar: June's best and worst MLB pitchers
By MARC LAWRENCE

The MLB calendar flips to June and we look at which pitchers perform well in the third month of the schedule and which ones run out of gas in June.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a 2-to-1 or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of June. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in June team starts, winning 33 percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts with at least one start each June over the last three years.

GOOD JUNE PITCHERS

Joe Blanton, Los Angeles Angels • 7-3

This might take a leap of faith to back the Angels right-hander who is on pace to have the worst year of career. If he’s going to help his team the rest of the season, giving up over 1.5 hits per innings pitched has to change immediately. Maybe turning the calendar will help.

Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox • 11-1

Buchholz begins this month after missing a start with irritation in his collarbone/AC joint. Otherwise, the Red Sox righty has done little wrong in 2013, as opposing batters are below the Mendoza Line (.200 batting average) against his tosses this year. The biggest difference is his ability to be focused for each start, which was not the case previously.

Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds • 10-4

Having returned from the DL on May 20, Cueto is expected to continue what was the start of a quality campaign. Being backed with a ballclub which can score runs helps, but the Dominican native hides the ball expertly with a lively two and four-seam fastballs and a quick biting slider. Confident hurler.

Ryan Dempster, Boston Red Sox • 11-3

The 36-year-old right-hander has struggled to find his pitch location, explaining his mediocre record. The fastball has lacked the tailing action of the past and left-handed batters are squaring up his tosses more often. It’s time for Dempster to start contributing for Boston.

R.A. Dickey, Toronto Blue Jays • 12-4

The dancing knuckleball has not been there for the Cy Young winner. Consistently, Dickey has not had the same dropping action from his knuckler as last year, which is why he’s been so prone to the long ball. The conundrum is exasperated by the fact this has not happened even when he changed speeds. It is time for Dickey to start earning his wages.

Jason Hammel, Baltimore Orioles • 11-5

In spite of a solid record this year, Hammel still has an ERA over 5.00. Where he’s been generally improved is more quality starts, but when Orioles starter has an “off day”, he is hammered. If the 6-foot-6 right-hander can maintain the same win percentage in June as in the past, manager Buck Showalter will take it.

Tommy Hanson, Arizona Diamondbacks • 12-2

Has been on the restricted list and on May 25 threw a five-inning, 75-pitch simulated game in Arizona and appears to be on the verge of rejoining the Angels' staff. With the Angels’ recent play; they would really like to have one of their main starters back to strengthen the rotation and the bullpen. Having Hanson put together another hot June would be a big plus.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland Indians • 11-5

No longer the mid-to-upper 90’s pitcher from his Colorado days, Jimenez is a back of the rotation starter for Cleveland, capable of two or three solid outings in a row and then struggle with his complicated delivery and be tagged. Always the key for this 29 year old is not walking batters, since that is when things unravel.

Mat Latos, Cincinnati Reds • 12-4

Since arriving in Cincinnati, Latos has grown up and pitched with greater maturity. He is less bothered with mistakes and moves on to the next pitch instead of dwelling on what happened two batters ago. Could reach the next level as a pitcher if he develops a better plan for going through the lineup the third and fourth time.

Jon Niese, New York Mets • 13-4

Not having a very good season on a below average club, Niese has started to focus on himself. The lefty has developed bad mechanics, leaning to the side and forward in his delivery instead of being straight up. The Mets year is probably lost, but Niese can turn it around by doing what he does best with his drop-and-drive motion.

David Price, Tampa Bay Rays • 12-5

Price has been on the DL since May 15 with a left triceps strain in the midst of his worst professional season. Maybe the rest will help and the velocity will return for the current AL Cy Young winner. Hard to imagine Tampa Bay makes the playoffs without Price finishing the year strong when he returns.

C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees • 14-2

For really the first time, the Yankees big man is starting to show some mileage. Sabathia’s batting average allowed is on a pace for a career-worst and he is well ahead of surrendering the most home runs of his storied career (11 to this point; 22 HR is previous high). The fastball has lost a couple of miles per hour and his slurvy breaking pitches have not yet had the usual bite. Nonetheless, he’s still C.C. and chances are he will figure out how to win more games.

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers • 14-3

After a couple of domineering years, Detroit’s ace has been ordinary by his standards in 2013. Verlander is permitting a hit an inning, something he has not done since his breakout year in 2006. His past suggests he could return to his usual productive ways at any moment and this is typically a sendoff point for him.

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels • 8-4

The tall, lanky Halos hurler is back from a broken left elbow and is expected to do what he throughout his career, win nearly two out three decisions (102-53 record). This premier starter works all four corners of the strike zone like a surgeon.

C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels • 14-1

Interesting to note there are four Anaheim starters on this list, thus if history is a predictor of the future, the Halos could have a monster June. A little hesitant at first being an ace when Weaver was injured, the left-hander looked more comfortable as time wore on and at least looked the part. Has owned this month.

BAD JUNE PITCHERS

Jeremy Guthrie, Kansas City Royals • 3-10

After setting a Kansas City franchise-record with 17 consecutive starts without a loss, Guthrie was roughed up the latter part of May and seen his ERA begin to return to career norms. Unless the Royals offense displays the ability to score like they did in sharp 17-10 start to the season, it is going to be difficult to back Guthrie.

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies • 5-12

The Phillies’ left-hander has already lost more games (8) than all of last season (6). After a rocky start, Hamels’ ERA has been in the mid-four’s since late April and though run support has been an issue from time to time, his yo-yo performances have made a bad situation worse. Hamels’ unusually high ERA at home (5.35) is what has really hurt him and finishing above .500 could be quite a task.

Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians • 5-10

Playing on his best team since joining Cleveland, Masterson is trending positively. The Jamaican-born sidearm pitcher is at career-lows in batting average allowed and WHIP and if he can surpass the problems he’s endured in past June’s, he is setting himself up for a fine campaign.

Brian Matusz, Baltimore Orioles • 4-13

Has only been used in relief by Baltimore this season and appears to have found a niche as a non-starter.

Ricky Nolasco, Miami Marlins • 5-12

The Corona, CA native is statistically having his best year since 2007, when he was 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA. Unfortunately, Nolasco can’t be expected to come close to matching the same win total, playing for an abysmal Marlins outfit. He has to be considered prime acquisition material for a contender before the season heads too much further down the road.

Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers • 5-10

Unlike Nolasco, Sanchez has been saved from Miami, pitching for Detroit. More comfortable in his first full season in MoTown, Sanchez’s 5-4 record does not indicate how well he thrown for the Tigers. His previous negative numbers figure to be in the past with a championship contender.

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THE FACTSMAN

Atlanta Braves

[DaKid]

THE FACTSMAN

Atlanta Braves

Wow, this dude is still at it?

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Rodriguez is 4-0, 3.00 in his last four starts. Cueto is 2-0, 2.76 in five starts this season.
-- Teheran is 1-1, 1.71 in his last three starts. Strasburg is 2-0, 1.57 in his last three outings.
-- Miller is 2-1, 1.99 in his last five starts. Giants won last six Cain starts (4-0, 3.86).
-- Kershaw is 3-1, 1.54 in his last six starts.

-- Marquis is 5-0, 3.34 in his last six starts. Toronto won both Jenkins starts this season (1-0, 3.60), scoring 18 runs.

-- Scherzer is 4-0, 2.92 in his last five starts. MGonzalez is 0-0, 2.13 in two starts since coming off the DL.
-- Rays are 9-1 when Moore starts (2-0, 2.37 in last three). Kluber is 1-1, 3.32 in his last three starts.
-- Texas won last five Holland starts (3-0, 3.09).
-- Seattle won five of last six Iwakuma starts (4-0, 2.85).
-- Hanson was 1-0, 2.65 in his last three starts before going on bereavement leave; his last start was May 4.
-- Colon is 2-0, 1.29 in his last two starts. Axelrod is 3-0, 4.32 in his last three.

Cold pitchers
-- Miley is 0-3, 9.82 in his last three starts. Garza is 0-0, 4.00 in his first couple starts this season.
-- Hamels is 0-5, 4.60 in his last five starts. Milwaukee lost last five Gallardo starts (0-4, 5.54).
-- Marcum is 0-4, 5.79 in six starts this season. Turner is 3-4, 4.47 in 10 AAA starts this season; he is 2-6, 5.19 in 13 career starts in major leagues.
-- Garland is 0-4, 6.86 in his last four starts.

-- Sabathia is 0-1, 5.70 in his last four starts. Lester is 0-1, 6.92 in his last two.
-- Davis is 0-3, 7.06 in his last four starts.
-- Pelfrey is 0-2, 7.64 in his last four starts.
-- Keuchel is 1-1, 7.36 in his last three starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Miley 1-10; Garza 0-2
-- Gallardo 2-11; Hamels 3-11
-- Cueto 0-5; Rodriguez 2-10
-- Marcum 1-6; Turner 0-0
-- Strasburg 4-11 (0 of last 5); Teheran 4-9
-- Cain 4-11; Miller 3-10
-- Kershaw 0-11; Garland 4-10

-- Jenkins 0-2; Marquis 3-10

-- Scherzer 3-10; Gonzalez 2-8
-- Moore 4-10 (4 of last 5); Kluber 0-6
-- Lester 3-11; Sabathia 4-11
-- Davis 2-10; Holland 0-10
-- Iwakuma 4-11; Pelfrey 5-10
-- Keuchel 0-4; Hansen 2-5
-- Axelrod 3-10; Colon 2-10

Totals
-- Six of last eight Arizona road games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Eight of last twelve Pirate games stayed under the total.
-- Ten of Mets' last fourteen games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Washington games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in Cain's last eight starts.
-- Eight of last eleven Colorado games stayed under the total.

-- Seven of last eight Toronto games went over the total.

-- Over is 11-3-1 in Baltimore's last fifteen games.
-- Over is 23-7-1 in last 31 Tampa Bay games.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Boston games.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Texas games.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in last seven Mariner games.
-- Six of last seven Angel games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Oakland home games stayed under total.

Hot teams
Royals led Cardinals 4-2 in top of 9th, but game has been in a very long rain delay; stats here reflect Royals winning this game.
-- Cubs won their last four games, scoring 29 runs. Arizona won four of its last six games.
-- Pirates won 13 of their last 16 games. Reds won 14 of their last 19.
-- Mets won their last five games, allowing nine runs.
-- Atlanta won ten of its last thirteen games.
-- Cardinals won 21 of their last 28 games.

-- Rays won their last four games, scoring 33 runs.
-- Red Sox won five of their last seven games.
-- Twins won five of their last six games.
-- Angels won nine of their last eleven games. Houston won three of last four.
-- A's won 11 of their last 13 games.

Cold teams
-- Brewers lost 13 of their last 16 games. Philly is 3-4 in its last seven games.
-- Marlins lost 19 of their last 22 games.
-- Nationals lost four of their last six games.
-- Giants lost five of their last eight games.
-- Dodgers lost nine of their last eleven road games. Rockies lost five of their last six games overall.

-- Padres lost six of their last nine games. Toronto lost six of its last nine road games.

-- Detroit lost its last three games, despite allowing only seven runs. Orioles lost seven of their last eleven home games.
-- Indians lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Bronx lost its last five games, outscored 24-10.
-- Royals lost 12 of their last 14 games. Texas lost three of last four.
-- Mariners lost ten of their last thirteen games.
-- White Sox lost their last three games, allowing 24 runs.

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Baseball Crusher
Chicago Cubs -117 over Arizona DBacks
(System Record: 29-4, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 29-32-1

Soccer Crusher
Icasa + Avai UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 404-15, won last game)
Overall Record: 404-353-49

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Today's MLB Picks

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

The Pirates look to follow up last night's 1-0 win over Detroit and build on their 5-0 record in Wandy Rodriguez' last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in the previous game. Pittsburgh is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, MAY 31 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Arizona at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 14.894; Cubs (Garza) 16.373 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-120); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-120); N/A

Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 13.964; Philadelphia (Hamels) 13.442 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+115); Over

Game 905-906: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.345; Pittsburgh (Rodriguez) 16.462 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 7 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Over

Game 907-908: NY Mets at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Marcum) 15.778; Miami (Turner) 13.395 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 909-910: Washington at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.192; Atlanta (Teheran) 16.304 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+100); Over

Game 911-912: San Francisco at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 16.465; St. Louis (Miller) 15.440 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+130); Under

Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.632; Colorado (Garland) 14.132 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-155); Under

Game 915-916: Detroit at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 15.401; Baltimore (Gonzalez) 16.123 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 9 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Over

Game 917-918: Tampa Bay at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 16.856; Cleveland (Kluber) 15.214 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Under

Game 919-920: Boston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 14.965; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.295 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 8 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-115); Over

Game 921-922: Kansas City at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davis) 14.186; Texas (Holland) 15.725 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Texas (-210); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-210); Under

Game 923-924: Seattle at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 15.958; Minnesota (Pelfrey) 14.395 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 8 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-140); Over

Game 925-926: Houston at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 14.673; LA Angels (Hanson) 16.022 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-250); 9 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-250); Under

Game 927-928: Chicago White Sox at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Axelrod) 15.266; Oakland (Colon) 14.982 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+150); over

Game 929-930: Toronto at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Jenkins) 14.512; San Diego (Marquis) 15.939 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-135); Under

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1040-772 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner FRI Phillies -130

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Friday

Connecticut Sun -5.5

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Joe Wiz

Free Play Friday Houston/Angels Under 9

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Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers - RANGERS -1.5 (-103)
Listed Pitchers: Davis vs Holland
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.94 units)

This is a run line bet on the Rangers.

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Cappers Access

D'Backs -125
A's -1.5 (+126)

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HONDO

Cincinnati Reds

"Hondo’s inexorable march toward solvency and points beyond continued yesterday when he breezed with the Mariners to reduce the deficit to 35 vander meers going into last night’s Card game.
Tonight, Mr. Aitch expects the Reds to wallop Mr. Wandy-ful — 10 units on Cueto. Also, if the Cards won last night, he will go with Miller to grind out a victory."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Tulsa at New York

The Liberty look to take advantage of a Tulsa team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games in New York. New York is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Liberty favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: New York (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

FRIDAY, MAY 31 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: Atlanta at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.332; Indiana 117.416 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 2; 160 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 155 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4); Over

Game 603-604: Tulsa at New York (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 101.356; New York 112.536 Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 11; 152 Vegas Line & Total: New York by 7 1/2; 158 Dunkel Pick: New York (-7 1/2); Under

Game 605-606: Connecticut at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 113.814; Chicago 120.698 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 7; 152 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 5; 157 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-5 1/2); Under