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2 UNIT = St Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins - CARDINALS TO WIN (-136)
Listed Pitchers: Westbrook vs Fernandez
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.47 units)
St Louis is coming off a series win vs the Mets taking 2 of 3 and they've now won 5 of their last 7 games. Over that span they've scored 46 runs (6.57 per game). The Cardinals are now 43-23 on the year and a very impressive 24-11 on the road. They head to Miami to take on the Marlins who are coming off a series loss at home vs Milwaukee which included a 10-1 loss last night. The Marlins are just 19-46 on the season and 11-22 at home. While the Cardinals sit 2nd in team batting average hitting .276 the Marlins are 29th hitting .229 as a team. The Cards have scored 329 runs to date this season (4.98 per game), while Miami is in last by over 30 runs with just 194 (2.98 runs per game). Tonight's starter for St Louis is Jake Westbrook who is coming off the DL but should be good for about 100 pitches. He is 2-1 on the season with a 1.62 ERA, .275 OBA and 1.46 WHIP. Rookie Jose Fernandez looks for another good start as he is 3-3 0n the season with a 3.17 ERA, .208 OBA and 1.15 WHIP. Tonight will be one of his toughest tests of the season against a great hitting Cardinals team. The Cards are 23-8 in their last 31 road games, 5-1 in their last 6 as a road favorite, and 8-2 in their last 10 vs NL East opponents. The Cardinals are also 8-3 in Westbrook's last 11 starts as a road favorite, and 5-2 in his last 7 starts vs a team with a losing record. The Marlins are just 11-23 in their last 34 home games, and 30-63 in their last 93 as a home underdog dating back to last season. Although Fernandez has pitched well this year the Marlins are 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs a team with a winning record. St Louis has taken 10 of their last 12 meetings with the Marlins and we are getting a good price on them tonight.
Play On - Home teams (NY METS) with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL), after scoring 1 run or less
90-50 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.3% 38.7 units )
15-15 this year. ( 50.0% -2.4 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets
MLB LA DODGERS at PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 28-13 (+19.3 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: PITTSBURGH (5.0) , OPPONENT (3.8)
Play On - Home favorites (ATLANTA) [/B]after a game where a team made 80% of their free throws or better against opponent after a game where a team made 15% of their 3 point shots or worse
57-25 since 1997. ( 69.5% 29.5 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.1 units )
WNBA CONNECTICUT at NEW YORK
Play Against - Underdogs vs the money line (CONNECTICUT) after 2 or more consecutive unders against opponent after 3 or more consecutive unders
107-30 since 1997. ( 78.1% 0.0 units )
WNBA MINNESOTA at TULSA
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after playing a home game, playing with 2 days rest
67-31 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.4% 32.9 units )
Game: San Francisco at Atlanta (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: San Francisco +125 (moneyline)
The Atlanta Braves looked like they were off and running away from the pack early on, as they jumped out to a 12-1 start. But, they were just swept in San Diego, and since their blazing start, the Bravos have been a pedestrian one game over .500. The Braves have had issues driving in runners in scoring position, residing second to last in the league with a poor .228 average. Madison Bumgarner has a 3.58 ERA on the season, and while Kris Medlen was a near invincible 10-1 a year ago with a 1.67 ERA, things have been much different this year as he is pitching well with a 2.88 ERA, but is just 3-6. That is a product of the Braves' inability to drive in runs. The Braves are now just 1-4 in Medlen's last five starts vs. a winning team. Take the road team here.
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