7-3-13

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

The Dallas Cowboys have had a hard time covering the spread at home since opening their $1 billion palace in 2009. America’s Team is a dismal 11-21 ATS at home in that span, including a 3-13 ATS record in Cowboys Stadium the last two seasons. And games like Week 13’s home date with the Oakland Raiders are a big reason why.

The Raiders come to “Jerry’s World” for Thursday Night Football in late November, sandwiched between a huge divisional road game versus the New York Giants in Week 12 and a Monday nighter at Chicago in Week 14, which will likely hold playoff implications. Oddsmakers have set Dallas as an 8.5-point home favorite hosting lowly Oakland, peaking past its AFC opponent and to an important Monday showdown in the Windy City.

Letdown spot

The Pac-12 title hunt should be fun to watch this college football season, if most of the country can stay up that late. A number of teams are contending for the conference crown, including UCLA and Washington, who clash on a Friday night in Week 12. The Golden Nugget in Las Vegas opened the Bruins as 2-point home favorites and early money pushed that spread to -4.

Those two extra points could give Huskies backers some added value with Washington, which catches UCLA coming off an important road game in Arizona the week before. The Huskies have a veteran squad with 20 starters back from 2012, including QB Keith Price. The junior was overshadowed by a surplus of QB talent in the Pac-12 last year and is a sleeper to win the 2013 Heisman Trophy.

Schedule spot

The Boston Red Sox had better pack the sun block with an approaching West Coast road swing. Boston is home to the San Diego Padres to start the week, finishing Thursday afternoon before jumping on a cross-country flight to play the Los Angeles Angels Friday. That three-game set with the Halos opens a 10-game, 10-day stretch that takes the team from L.A. to Seattle to Oakland before the All-Star break.

The Red Sox have yet to hit the left side of the country this season, only going as far as Texas for a three-game sweep at the hands of the Rangers in early May. Boston is 10-6 versus AL West foes so far this season but went just 8-24 against them in 2012. The BoSox visited those three teams over a nine-game, late-summer road trip last year, coming away with a 1-8 record.

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WNBA under bettors winning at more than 59 percent
By JASON LOGAN

If you’ve been following the WNBA this summer – and let’s be honest, you haven’t – you’d recognize that more games are finishing under the total than not.

In fact, heading into Tuesday’s four-game slate, 59.32 percent of this season’s WNBA contests have stayed below the number (24-35-2 over/under). That percentage jumps to 64.7 over the last 30 days, with WNBA action posting an 18-33 over/under count in that span.

WNBA teams are scoring slightly less than last summer, with teams averaging 77.36 points per game compared to 77.53, but also the 2013 schedule is much more spread out due to the 2012 Summer Olympics conflicting with last season.

At this time last year, WNBA teams posted a 42-38 over/under record, playing 80 games through the first two months of the schedule, compared to only 61 heading into July this season.

The London Games put the WNBA on a month hiatus (July 14 to August 15) and had schedule makers compressing the first half of the calendar. That busier pace gave teams less time to rest, gameplan and practice, unlike 2013 when most teams have at least two full days off between contests.

Western Conference teams have the biggest lean toward the under this year. Out of six Western squads, just one – the Phoenix Mercury (6-5 over/under) – is over .500 for the over. Outside of Phoenix, the five other West clubs have a combined over/under count of 19-31-1.

The Eastern Conference, however, is home to the three best under plays: Indiana Fever (2-8 O/U), New York Liberty (2-6-1 O/U) and Connecticut Sun (2-6-1 O/U).

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Baseball Crusher
Toronto Blue Jays +100 over Detroit Tigers
(System Record: 46-5, lost last 7 games)
Overall Record: 46-48-1

Soccer Crusher
Goias + ABCRN UNDER 3
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 420-15, lost last game)
Overall Record: 420-363-55

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Locke is 4-0, 1.08 in his last eight starts.
-- Cingrani is 2-0, 3.54 in his last five starts, but only one of them has been since May 17.
-- Harvey is 2-1, 1.59 in his last five starts.
-- Lohse is 2-0, 2.51 in his last five starts.
-- Greinke is 3-1, 3.18 in his last five starts. Chatwood is 4-2, 1.61 in his last eight outings.

-- Colon is 8-0, 1.37 in his last eight starts. Garza is 2-0, 0.82 in his last three.

-- Scherzer is 5-0, 2.38 in his last five starts.
-- FHernandez is 3-0, 3.27 in his last six starts. Holland is 1-0, 2.25 in his last two starts.
-- Norris is 2-2, 2.38 in his last eight home starts.
-- Kazmir is 1-0, 1.29 in his last couple starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Detwiler is 0-3, 7.54 in his last five starts.
-- Lannan is 1-2, 7.23 in his last four starts.
-- Delgado is 0-2, 4.00 in three starts for Arizona.
-- Zito is 0-5, 13.50 in his six road starts this season.
-- Nolasco is 1-2, 5.48 in his last four starts. Minor is 0-1, 6.00 in last three.

-- Lester is 2-4, 7.08 in his last eight starts. Volquez has a 6.92 RA in his last five outings.
-- Miller is 1-3, 6.38 in his last four starts. Williams is 1-2, 4.26 in his last four.

-- Johnson is 1-1, 4.40 in his last five starts.
-- Feldman is 2-2, 5.18 in his last four starts.
-- RHernandez is 0-3, 5.23 in his last three starts.
-- Sabathia is 2-2, 5.46 in his last four starts. Walters is 0-4, 8.46 in his last five.
-- Guthrie is 0-3, 8.04 in his last three starts. Santiago is 1-1, 5.17 in his last three outings.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Lohse 6-16; Detwiler 5-12
-- Lannan 3-6; Locke 3-16
-- Nolasco 5-16; Minor 6-16
-- Zito 6-16; Cingrani 1-7
-- Delgado 2-3; Harvey 3-17
-- Greinke 3-11; Chatwood 2-9

-- Volquez 5-17; Lester 5-17
-- Garza 0-8; Colon 3-16
-- Miller 5-16; Williams 2-9

-- Scherzer 4-16; Johnson 1-9
-- Feldman 4-15; Santiago 1-9
-- FHernandez 3-17; Holland 1-16
-- RHernandez 6-15; Norris 4-17
-- Sabathia 5-17; Walters 4-7
-- Kazmir 3-13; Guthrie 5-16

Totals
-- Eight of last ten Philly games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten New York games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Cincinnati home games.
-- Four of last five Miami games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Colorado games stayed under the total.

-- Six of last eight San Diego games went over the total.
-- Last eight Cub games went over the total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in Angels' last five games.

-- Ten of last thirteen Detroit games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Kansas City games went over total.
-- Under is 11-5-1 in last seventeen Bronx road games.
-- Under is 12-6-2 in last twenty Houston home games.
-- Six of last eight Baltimore games stayed under total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won nine of their last ten games.
-- Washington is 8-5 in its last thirteen games.
-- Cincinnati won three of its last four games.
-- Mets won three of their last four games.
-- Marlins won eight of their last eleven games. Atlanta won six of last seven.
-- Dodgers won nine of their last ten games.

-- Red Sox won six of their last seven games.
-- A's won five of their last six games; Cubs won four of last six.
-- Angels won their last seven games, scoring 43 runs.

-- Blue Jays won seven of their last eight home games.
-- Texas won nine of its last twelve games.
-- Indians won their last five games, scoring 42 runs.
-- Tampa Bay won seven of its last nine games.
-- Orioles won four of their last five games.

Cold teams
-- Phillies are 9-13 in their last 22 games.
-- Brewers lost six of their last eight games.
-- Giants lost ten of their last 12 games.
-- Arizona lost eight of its last nine games.
-- Rockies lost five of their last seven games.

-- Padres lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Cardinals lost seven of their last nine games.

-- Detroit lost six of its last eight games.
-- Mariners lost four of their last six games.
-- Royals lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Astros lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Bronx lost 13 of its last 20 games, but won last two. Minnesota lost six of its last eight games.
-- White Sox lost five of their last six games.

Umpires
-- Mil-Wsh-- Under is 8-4 in last 12 Iassogna games; dogs won four of last six.
-- Phil-Pitt-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Emmel games.
-- Mia-Atl-- Last four Barry games stayed under the total.
-- SF-Cin-- Home side won nine of last ten O'Nora games.
-- Az-NY-- Wolcott's first MLB game behind the plate went under.
-- LA-Colo-- Favorites won eight of last ten Winters games.

-- SD-Bos-- Underdogs won six of last eight Eddings games.
-- Chi-A's-- Five of last seven Vanover games went over total.
-- StL-LAA-- Seven of last eight Scott games stayed under.

-- Det-Tor-- Last four Estabrook games went over the total.
-- Blt-Chi-- Five of last six Holbrook games stayed under.
-- Sea-Tex-- Favorites won seven of last nine Foster games.
-- TB-Hst-- 12 of last 15 Davidson games went over total.
-- NY-Min-- Underdogs won nine of last 12 Nelson games, with six of last seven going over the total.
-- Cle-KC-- Last five Danley games stayed under the total.

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Today's MLB Picks

LA Dodgers at Colorado

The Dodgers look to follow up last night's 8-0 win and take advantage of a Colorado team that is 0-7 in its last 7 games after allowing 5 runs or more in the previous game. LA is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 3 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Milwaukee at Washington (6:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 15.167; Washington (Detwiler) 14.029 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 8 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+130); Over

Game 953-954: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lannan) 15.276; Pittsburgh (Locke) 16.961 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-155); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-155); Under

Game 955-956: Miami at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Nolasco) 15.545; Atlanta (Minor) 16.960 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-200); Under

Game 957-958: San Francisco at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 14.654; Cincinnati (Cingrani) 14.026 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-180); 9 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+160); Over

Game 959-960: Arizona at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Delgado) 15.306; NY Mets (Harvey) 14.698 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: NY Mets (-200); 7 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+170); Over

Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 16.306; Colorado (Chatwood) 13.705 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-115); Under

Game 963-964: Detroit at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 17.117; Toronto (Johnson) 15.679 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); Under

Game 965-966: Baltimore at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Feldman) 15.050; White Sox (Santiago) 15.661 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+120); Over

Game 967-968: Seattle at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 14.524; Texas (Holland) 16.117 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-135); Over

Game 969-970: Tampa Bay at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hernandez) 16.643; Houston (Norris) 12.692 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 4; 8 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-135); Under

Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.240; Minnesota (Walters) 13.919 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-150); Over

Game 973-974: Cleveland at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kazmir) 15.204; Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.275 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 9 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-120); Under

Game 975-976: San Diego at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Volquez) 13.869; Boston (Lester) 16.192 Dunkel Line: Boston by 2 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Boston (-185); 10 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-185); Under

Game 977-978: Chicago Cubs at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Garza) 16.273; Oakland (Colon) 15.205 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Oakland (-180); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+160); Over

Game 979-980: St. Louis at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Miller) 16.676; LA Angels (Williams) 15.490 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 9 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-115); Under

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1055-790 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner 6-1 run in a row WED Cards w/ Miller

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Wednesday

NYY -150

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Hondo

Yankees

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Joe Wiz

Free Play Wednesday Cleveland/Kansas City Under 9

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Cappers Access

Nationals -155
Cardinals -110

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB SEATTLE at TEXAS

Play Against - Road teams (SEATTLE) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start
201-119 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.8% 66.8 units )
24-20 this year. ( 54.5% 0.1 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB PHILADELPHIA at PITTSBURGH

PITTSBURGH is 40-24 (+21.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.

The average score was: PITTSBURGH (4.0) , OPPONENT (3.5)

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Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

MLB

DETROIT -113 TORONTO (7pm)

SD/BOSTON - UNDER 10 -120 (7pm)

TEXAS -138 SEATTLE (8pm)

LA/COLORADO - OVER 9.5 +105 (8pm)

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PAUL LEINER

100* Dodgers -115

50* Over 8.5 - White Sox/Orioles

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CHRIS JORDAN

800* Mets run line +125