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Today's Free Picks for Jul 05, 2013
1-2 In MLB Yesterday
Miami @ ST. LOUIS
Miami +159 over ST. LOUIS
On the surface, the Marlins wouldn’t look like such a good bet in St. Louis against Jake Westbrook and his 2.95 ERA. However, Westbrook’s skills (26/27 BB/K and 4.47 xERA) say there's been quite a whole lot of of luck involved so far. Westbrook's 79% strand rate and 5% hr/f are due for some correction, though he is doing a great job of keeping the ball on the ground (60% GB%). The Miami offense also hasn't been a doormat lately with a .256 BA in June and 5.5 runs per game over the last week heading into this one. Westbrook isn’t even an average pitcher. He’s a serviceable. Below average one on a very good team. That doesn’t mean he should be in this price range. The Marlins are an enthusiastic group that has been playing well for over a month. Miami is 8-2 over its last 10 and just took two of three in Atlanta, who own the best home record in baseball. Incidentally, the Cardinals are just 22-16 at home. Once again, we get a sweet price on the Marlins with Jacob Turner going and once again we’re on it. Turner has started just six games this season and could easily be 6-0 after he allowed three runs or fewer in all of them and two runs or fewer in five of those six. In 2011, Turner was the Tigers #1 pitching prospect. His fastball sits between 90-95 mph and he uses his 6’5” height well to pitch on a downward plane. The fastball exhibits nasty late life and he gets hitters to pound it into the ground. Turner has an elite 51%/18%/30% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile and has allowed just one jack over 41 innings. The Fish have won four of Turner’s six starts and he remains one of the league’s most undervalued starters. The Marlins absolutely have a great chance of extending their strong play of late. Big overlay.
Our Pick
Miami +159 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.18)
Chicago @ TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY -1½ +108 over Chicago
The White Sox managed to squeeze out a rare win yesterday but don’t expect lightning to strike twice in a row, especially on the road, where the South Side has won just 15 of 43 games. All it takes is a quick glance at Dylan Axelrod's monthly ERA trend to know something isn't right: 3.95 in April, 4.10 in May, and 5.88 in June. Axelrod's June was particularly troubling as he walked 15 batters, struck out just 14 in 26 frames and had a 5.97 xERA covering five starts. Axelrod also owns a disturbing 1.44 WHIP this season but perhaps the most disturbing number of all is his high 83% strand rate in June, which should have led to a low ERA month but instead he had an awful ERA month. Dylan Axelrod is on the verge of imploding for several starts in a row and is now officially on our fade list. Jeremy Hellickson is so much better than his 4.90 ERA suggests. Hellickson is 5-1 over his last six starts with a skills supported 3.23 ERA. During that stretch he struck out 27 and walked seven over 35.2 innings Even more impressive is the six-game stretch in which Hellickson thrived occurred against Detroit, Toronto, Boston, K.C., Baltimore and Cleveland. That’s just sick. After facing that group in succession, facing the White Sox should be appear in slow motion for both Hellickson and the Rays. Put it on the board……Yes!
Our Pick
TAMPA BAY -1½ +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)
Oakland @ KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY +104 over Oakland
Tommy Milone is 7-7 with a 4.17 ERA, which isn’t so good when you consider that he’s benefited greatly from pitching half his games at O.co Coliseum. On the road, Milone has an ERA of 5.07 but he has an xERA on the road of 6.26. Milone is pure garbage. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a groundball/fly-ball split of 25%/57%. He has the lowest groundball rate of any starter in the majors with at least 10 starts this year. Milone has already surrendered 19 bombs in just 105.2 innings and will face a Royals team that owns the fourth best BA (.272) in the league against southpaws. Over the last month, covering five starts, Milone’s WHIP was 1.38. Milone is hittable, he can’t keep the ball in the yard and frankly, he has no business being favored on the road. The A’s are favored here with Milone going because Wade Davis walked five batters in one inning in his last start in Minnesota and allowed six runs. Davis has been smacked around on more than a few occasions this season and he does come with some serious risk. However, prior to imploding in his last start, Davis had strung together four starts in a row of allowing two earned runs or fewer and that includes a game against the Tigers. That said, we’re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest that Davis qualifies as a strong starting pitcher because he does not. We’re merely pointing out that Davis has strikeout ability (73 K in 83 IP) and he and the Royals are undervalued at home against one of the most overvalued combos on the road, that being the A’s (22-22 on the road overall) with Tommy Milone going.
OurPick
KANSAS CITY +104
Today's Free Picks for Jul 05, 2013
| Season to Date | 128 | 130 | 0.00 | +39.74 |
1-2 In MLB Yesterday
Miami @ ST. LOUIS Miami +159 over ST. LOUIS
On the surface, the Marlins wouldn’t look like such a good bet in St. Louis against Jake Westbrook and his 2.95 ERA. However, Westbrook’s skills (26/27 BB/K and 4.47 xERA) say there's been quite a whole lot of of luck involved so far. Westbrook's 79% strand rate and 5% hr/f are due for some correction, though he is doing a great job of keeping the ball on the ground (60% GB%). The Miami offense also hasn't been a doormat lately with a .256 BA in June and 5.5 runs per game over the last week heading into this one. Westbrook isn’t even an average pitcher. He’s a serviceable. Below average one on a very good team. That doesn’t mean he should be in this price range. The Marlins are an enthusiastic group that has been playing well for over a month. Miami is 8-2 over its last 10 and just took two of three in Atlanta, who own the best home record in baseball. Incidentally, the Cardinals are just 22-16 at home. Once again, we get a sweet price on the Marlins with Jacob Turner going and once again we’re on it. Turner has started just six games this season and could easily be 6-0 after he allowed three runs or fewer in all of them and two runs or fewer in five of those six. In 2011, Turner was the Tigers #1 pitching prospect. His fastball sits between 90-95 mph and he uses his 6’5” height well to pitch on a downward plane. The fastball exhibits nasty late life and he gets hitters to pound it into the ground. Turner has an elite 51%/18%/30% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile and has allowed just one jack over 41 innings. The Fish have won four of Turner’s six starts and he remains one of the league’s most undervalued starters. The Marlins absolutely have a great chance of extending their strong play of late. Big overlay.
Our Pick
Miami +159 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.18)
Chicago @ TAMPA BAY TAMPA BAY -1½ +108 over Chicago
The White Sox managed to squeeze out a rare win yesterday but don’t expect lightning to strike twice in a row, especially on the road, where the South Side has won just 15 of 43 games. All it takes is a quick glance at Dylan Axelrod's monthly ERA trend to know something isn't right: 3.95 in April, 4.10 in May, and 5.88 in June. Axelrod's June was particularly troubling as he walked 15 batters, struck out just 14 in 26 frames and had a 5.97 xERA covering five starts. Axelrod also owns a disturbing 1.44 WHIP this season but perhaps the most disturbing number of all is his high 83% strand rate in June, which should have led to a low ERA month but instead he had an awful ERA month. Dylan Axelrod is on the verge of imploding for several starts in a row and is now officially on our fade list. Jeremy Hellickson is so much better than his 4.90 ERA suggests. Hellickson is 5-1 over his last six starts with a skills supported 3.23 ERA. During that stretch he struck out 27 and walked seven over 35.2 innings Even more impressive is the six-game stretch in which Hellickson thrived occurred against Detroit, Toronto, Boston, K.C., Baltimore and Cleveland. That’s just sick. After facing that group in succession, facing the White Sox should be appear in slow motion for both Hellickson and the Rays. Put it on the board……Yes!
Our Pick
TAMPA BAY -1½ +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)
Oakland @ KANSAS CITY KANSAS CITY +104 over Oakland
Tommy Milone is 7-7 with a 4.17 ERA, which isn’t so good when you consider that he’s benefited greatly from pitching half his games at O.co Coliseum. On the road, Milone has an ERA of 5.07 but he has an xERA on the road of 6.26. Milone is pure garbage. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a groundball/fly-ball split of 25%/57%. He has the lowest groundball rate of any starter in the majors with at least 10 starts this year. Milone has already surrendered 19 bombs in just 105.2 innings and will face a Royals team that owns the fourth best BA (.272) in the league against southpaws. Over the last month, covering five starts, Milone’s WHIP was 1.38. Milone is hittable, he can’t keep the ball in the yard and frankly, he has no business being favored on the road. The A’s are favored here with Milone going because Wade Davis walked five batters in one inning in his last start in Minnesota and allowed six runs. Davis has been smacked around on more than a few occasions this season and he does come with some serious risk. However, prior to imploding in his last start, Davis had strung together four starts in a row of allowing two earned runs or fewer and that includes a game against the Tigers. That said, we’re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest that Davis qualifies as a strong starting pitcher because he does not. We’re merely pointing out that Davis has strikeout ability (73 K in 83 IP) and he and the Royals are undervalued at home against one of the most overvalued combos on the road, that being the A’s (22-22 on the road overall) with Tommy Milone going.
OurPick
KANSAS CITY +104
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