7-13-13

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HARRY BONDI - Free Selection



MIAMI (-125) over Washington
7:15 p.m. ET


Some people's eyebrows may raise when they see us grab lowly Miami as a favorite, but this is simply a case where we'll continue to go against Nats starter Dan Haren, who been absolutely horrific. Washington has lost each of the veteran right-hander's last nine starts and in his last three starts, Haren has posted a 7.52 ERA. Meanwhile, Miami starter Jose Fernandez has a sparkling 1.89 ERA in his last three starts and the Fish have won five of his last seven starts. Washington's offense has also struggled all season on the road, averaging just 3.3 runs per game. Take Miami as a rare favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE ESSLER

Saturday MLB Thoughts

Cincinnati-Atlanta: Bailey has had his regression game as most pitchers do after a no-hitter, and because he simply owns both McCann and Uggla, and if Heyward is out, I lean Reds. Reed Johnson (Heywards' replacement) is 0-9 against Bailey. As good as Minor is, he's a flyball pitcher and has benefited from Turner Field, so I also lean under here.

Cardinals-Cubs: Lynn hasn't given up a home run in three straight starts, but he's thrown over 100 pitches in all three games. This looks like one of those "sooner or later" games. Garza has been a freak show lately, but he too has thrown a lot of pitches. Have to wonder if the Wrigley total might be too high. Coming into Friday the Cubs had won five of six, and if Holliday is still hobbled, no chance of trusting the Cardinals pen here.

Mets-Pirates: One has to wonder how much Burnett has in the way of strength, coming of the DL and only throwing 66 pitches against the Cubs. And Torres coming from the pen, even with impressive numbers, certainly bring the Mets pen into play. Almost talked myself into the Mets first five innings here.

Miami-Washington: I just love backing Fernandez and hate backing Haren. There is no chance of taking the Nationals here, barring something unforeseen, and it looks like at BetOnline the Fish opened as favorites, and IMO for a reason.

Rockies-Dodgers: Clearly there's going to be a price to be paid for Grienke that I'm probably not willing to pay. However, the Rockies pounded him in Colorado last week, and as you guys know I look for the pitcher to make the adjustments. Chatwood can be better than advertised, and the Dodgers pounded HIM in Colorado last week as well, which might lean me to believe the total will be a bit too high, especially in Dodger Stadium.

Giants-Padres: I suppose Timmy may be somewhat "back" but he's still given up three or more earned runs in four straight starts, so I just cannot justify taking him on the road against a team that at the very least knows him as well as most. With Volquez having exactly one good start at home in the last two months or so, it may be hard to go that route as well. With those things in mind, perhaps this is a higher scoring game than one might think.

Milwaukee-Arizona: Delgado is not on the Braves roster for a reason, and not because Atlanta is deep in starting pitchers, either. Lohse is on the Brewers for a reason, and his season-long 1.18 WHIP is something I can't overlook here. Total might be high based on the park, the pitchers, and the teams, however. Can't wrap my head around Delgado, so would take the Brewers if you made me.

Twins-Yankees: We'll have to see what happens between these two Friday, but the Twins ARE going to win a game here. Deduno could be a bit under valued here off the pasting he took in Tampa Bay, and he just faced the Yankees in Minnesota so he might be ahead of the curve a bit. When he's on, he is a groundball pitcher, and when Hughes is not on the ball leaves the yard. This one, to me, all depends on the Twins lineup. If all the LH hitters are in, the RL is a consideration.

Toronto-Baltimore: With Redmond's potential they're giving Hammel a bit too much credit at -150, IMO. Let's not forget that Hammel's WHIP is over 1.40, which is simply not worth that price to me. He can give up the gopher ball with the best of them, so lean Jays and/or Jays RL.

Houston-Rays: Fausto is .60 cheaper than David Price was on Friday. Seems to me that that's still a bit of an over estimation for someone that's given up three or more runs in seven straight starts. That's especially after Kuechel just faced, and was hammered by, these same Rays. I have to think that Houston gets some here, and that even with some regression so does Tampa Bay, and the unthinkable over in the Trop may be the best play in this game.

Cleveland-Kansas City: I'd almost rather back the Indians against a LHP this season and almost rather back the Royals against a LHP as well, so I have the immediate lean to the Royals here, obviously pending what happens Friday. Both Kazmir and Guthrie are feast or famine pitchers (to me, anyways) so the advantage may be with the team with more bullpen arms after Friday. That -140 or so is just begging for people to take Cleveland, but IMO Kazmir is simply not worth it.

Detroit-Texas: So when exactly is Max going to lose a game. Even at -170 against the Rangers lineup, they're asking way too much, even to take the Tigers RL, IMO. I'd like to take Holland here, but the biggest issue for me is the 125 pitches he threw last outing, as well as the fact that he often has trouble inducing ground balls. Perhaps this is the sluggfest, but then there's Max, who actually the Rangers have had some success against. Rangers RL and/or over.

Boston-Oakland: I suppose the knee-jerk reaction would be to take Lester at plus-money, but that's exactly why I lean Griffin. In the big park, Boston is probably at somewhat of a disadvantage having to string hits together to score. Oakland or nothing. Sorry Kyle.

Seattle-Angels: Another knee-jerk reaction to Felix at only -110 to ANYONE. Yes, the Angels know him better than anyone, and Weaver has been unhittable lately. However, he did have three straight 100+ pitch games and it is getting warmer, and the last game was 114 pitches. Almost have to think this is NOT a pitchers' duel and may look at the over, simply because at 6.5 a 3-3 game is a winner.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's National League betting notes and tips

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Saturday's National League games:

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves (-118, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Reds starter Homer Bailey was hit hard Monday in his first start since his July 2 no-hitter against the Giants, surrendering four runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 4-3 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers.

Cold batting stat: The Braves’ roster is hitting .218 against Bailey with three extra-base hits - all doubles - in 78 at-bats.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow in from right field at 8 mph.

Key betting stat: Braves are 7-0 in SP Mike Minor's last seven Saturday starts.


Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (-159, 7)

Hot pitching stat: The Dodgers' bullpen has a 0.73 ERA in the last eight games.

Cold batting stat: Rockies slugger Carlos Gonzalez, who leads the NL with 25 home runs, struck out in all four of his at-bats Friday.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 10 mph.

Key betting stat: Dodgers are 6-0 in SP Zack Greinke's last six home starts.


St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (111, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Cubs starter Matt Garza has yielded just one earned run in each of his last four starts - all victories.

Cold batting stat: Cards star Carlos Beltran is 0-for-7 lifetime against Garza.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and sunny skies. Winds will blow in from right field at 9 mph.

Key betting stat: The Cardinals are 20-3 in SP Lance Lynn's last 23 starts against NL Central foes.


Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (-122, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: 20-year-old Marlins starter Jose Fernandez, who is the youngest All-Star in franchise history, leads all rookie pitchers in ERA (2.83).

Hot batting stat: Marlins SS Adeiny Hechavarria is batting .442 (19-for-43) during his career-high 11-game hitting streak.

Weather: Roof could be closed due to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Key betting stat: The Nationals are 0-9 in SP Dan Haren's last nine starts.


New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates (-170, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Pirates SP A.J. Burnett has struggled with his control, issuing multiple walks in each of his last six outings.

Cold batting stat: Mets 3B David Wright has struggled against Burnett, going 3-for-18 with eight strikeouts.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-80s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow in from center field at 6 mph.

Key betting stat: The Mets are 9-1 in their last 10 games following a loss.


Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks (-125, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Brewers starter Kyle Lohse pitched well in his last outing versus Arizona, allowing one run over six innings in a no-decision.

Cold batting stat: Diamondbacks 2B Aaron Hill is 0-for-7 in the series after collecting hits in five of his previous six contests.

Weather: Roof could be closed due to extreme temperatures.

Key betting stat: The under is 12-0 in Lohse's last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record.


San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres (-113, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Giants starter Tim Lincecum is 11-6 with a 2.34 ERA in 24 career starts against the Padres, including 1-1 with a 1.32 ERA in two starts this season.

Hot batting stat: Padres RF Chris Denorfia is a career .340 hitter in 50 games against San Francisco.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-60s and mostly clear skies. Winds will blow in from left field at 3 mph.

Key betting stat: The over is 6-0 in umpire Mark Wegner's last six games behind home plate.


INTERLEAGUE

Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies - Game 1 (-115, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Phillies starter Jonathan Pettibone owns a 3-1 mark with a 2.45 ERA at home this year.

Hot batting stat: Philadelphia CF Ben Revere went 2-for-4 on Thursday to extend his hitting streak to nine games.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-90s and a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out to left field at 11 mph.

Key betting stat: The under is 7-0 in the White Sox's last seven Saturday games.


Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies - Game 2 (-137, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Philies starter John Lannan has won two of his last three starts, including a triumph over Washington on Monday in which he scattered four hits over eight scoreless innings.

Hot batting stat: The Sox exploded for 22 runs in their three-game series versus the Tigers as they took two of three from their AL Central foes.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-80s and a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out to left field at 11 mph.

Key betting stat: The White Sox are 2-8 in SP Hector Santiago's last 10 starts on grass.

** Weather, probable starting pitchers and odds as of 11:05 a.m. ET.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's American League betting notes and tips

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Saturday's American League games:

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (-142, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Twins starter Samuel Deduno was tagged for five runs in 10 hits in a loss at Tampa Bay on Monday.

Hot batting stat: Minnesota's Ryan Doumit is 6-for-9 with a home run against Yankees hurler Phil Hughes.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and cloudy skies. Winds will blow from right field to left field att 9 mph.

Key betting stat: Twins are 6-1 in their last seven Saturday games.


Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (-143, 9.5)

Cold pitching stat: O's starter Jason Hammel is 0-3 over his last seven starts, surrendering 10 home runs in that span.

Hot batting stat: Orioles 1B Chris Davis (35) needs two home runs to equal the AL record for most homers in the first half, set by Oakland's Reggie Jackson in 1969.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-90s and a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out to left field at 11 mph.

Key betting stat: The over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.


Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (-237, 8.5)

Cold pitching stat: Astros starter Dallas Keuchel took the loss on July 1, allowing five runs and eight hits over 4 2/3 innings in his first career appearance against Tampa Bay.

Hot batting stat: Houston OF J.D. Martinez is 9-for-21 with four RBIs in his last five contests.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting stat: The Rays are 12-2 in their last 14 overall.


Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians (-143, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Indians starter Scott Kazmir has surrendered only six earned runs and 16 hits in 24 2/3 innings over his last four outings.

Hot batting stat: Royals 3B Miguel Tejada is batting .406 (13-for-32) against Kazmir.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-70s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow in from right field at 7 mph.

Key betting stat: The Royals are 5-0 in their last five when playing the second game of a series.


Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (-159, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Tigers hurler Max Scherzer's 18-game unbeaten streak to begin the season is the fourth-longest such run in the majors since 1916.

Hot batting stat: Detroit DH Victor Martinez is batting .446 with nine RBIs and 10 runs scored during his 14-game hitting streak.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow in from left field at 7 mph.

Key betting stat: The Tigers are 36-15 in Scherzer's last 51 starts.


Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics (-127, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Sox starter Jon Lester is limping into the break with only two quality starts in his last 10 outings. He is also coming off a rough performance in which he was charged with five runs in five innings in an 11-4 loss at Seattle on Monday.

Hot batting stat: Sox 1B Mike Napoli has five hits and six RBI in 13 AB versus Oakland this season.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-60s and clear skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 9 mph.

Key betting stat: The Athletics are 0-5 in their last five Saturday games.


Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners (-106, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Angels ace Jered Weaver has been sensational in his last three starts, allowing a total of two runs over 20 2/3 innings.

Hot batting stat: Seattle 3B Kyle Seager extended his hitting streak to 12 games Friday with a leadoff homer in the second inning.

Weather: Roof should be open. Temperatures in the low-70s and clear skies. Winds will blow in from left field at 8 mph.

Key betting stat: The over is 12-1 in the Mariners' last 13 home games.

** Weather, probable starting pitchers and odds as of 11:00 a.m. ET.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Handicapper King

braves

CFL
Hamilton
British Columbia

Freeloader phillies game 1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

The Reds paid back Hondo for ending his seven-game winning streak Thursday night, beating Los Bravos last night.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will join forces with the Lynn-sane Card posse — on Lance & Co. to drub the Cubs.

Cardinals

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CHRIS JORDAN

200* Rockies +155

(he's lost 5 in a row)

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Teddy Covers

10* Marlins

10* Giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vic Monte Sports

PRIVATE PLAY GAME OF THE YEAR - BOSTON RED SOX +1.20

[666les]

Thanks goirish,I already checked those Umpire trends and they are of value. Love to the site and love to yourself.666 gl.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Angels/Mariners Under 7

Two of the best pitchers in the game face off in a night time showdown. Neither team is good at hitting the ball at night and this looks to me like a 1-0 pitchers duel. Take the Under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EAGLE EYE SPORTS---Billy Joe Hershey
Detroit Tigers
Ny Mets

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thanks goirish,I already checked those Umpire trends and they are of value. Love to the site and love to yourself.666 gl.

666les,
glad it helps you, hope you hit em hard and always collect - stay within yourself and bet what you can afford to lose. GL!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

diamond club
phillies game 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee lost on Friday with the 2nd "Chalkest" game on the board the Dodgers-$240/Rockies.

For Saturday we have two plays from "Mr Chalk" the Phillies -$138/White Sox. (Game 1)

Also the Marlins -$120/Nationals for $50 Haren/Fernandez must go otherwise it's Np.

"Mr Chalk" is 59-32 +$1067 for the 2013 MLB Season.