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Game: Minnesota at New York Yankees (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: New York Yankees -144 (moneyline) at TopBet
The Yankees haven't lost in five tries vs. the Twins this season. I think that streak continues this afternoon. Phil Hughes has struggled this season, but he did beat Minnesota. And, over his last three starts he's been very good, posting a 2.37 ERA. The Twins average just 3.6 runs per game on the road and as a result have gone just 16-30. This season Minny is just 13-34 vs. winning teams while the Yankees are 28-18 vs. AL opponents averaging under 4.8 runs per game. Take New York.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles
Take: Total 9½ ov-101
in 10h
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Here we get a nice value on the over with two pitchers who I believe are capable of giving up a very big number. Jason Hammel has an ERA above 6 at home this year. Todd Redmond has made only 2 career major league starts and his ERA was nearly 4 in triple A. Toronto's offense is much more dangerous in Jose Reyes in the lead off spot. Baltimore's lineup doesn't get the credit it deserves. The Orioles have one baseball's best offenses from top to bottom. Look for a high scoring affair. Take the over.
MLB
Jul 13 '13
4:10p
Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays
Take: Tampa Bay Rays -1½-115
in 10h
*3 Star MLB Runline Value* Tampa Bay was stunned 2-1 last night by the Houston Astros. Houston was nearly +300 at many sports books before last night's game. I think this is a great spot for the Rays to bounce back with a big win. Houston is a terrible team, and they aren't good at putting together winning streaks. Dallas Keuchel is a young lefty who has struggled on the road in his career. Tampa Bay is hitting .280 against lefties so far in 2013. Tampa Bay should put up a big number in this one, and Houston's offense shouldn't be able to keep up. Take Tampa Bay -1.5.
MLB
Jul 13 '13
7:15p
Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers
Take: Texas Rangers +155
in 13h
*3 Star MLB Dog of the Day* I am no fan of betting against the Detroit Tigers at home especially with Matt Scherzer pitching. At the same time, Texas is one of the best teams in baseball, and they have an up and coming pitching star on the mound in Derek Holland. The Rangers have been great the past couple years at bouncing back from a loss. They lost 7-2 last night and I expect a much better effort from them on Saturday. The Rangers are actually 5-0 in Holland's last 5 starts against the Tigers. At this price, I have to the underdog. Take Texas.
MLB
Jul 13 '13
10:10p
Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners
Take: Los Angeles Angels +102
in 16h
*4 Star MLB Moneyline Best Bet* The Los Angeles Angels have shown signs of life over the past couple weeks. One big positive for them has been the return of Jered Weaver. Weaver struggled when he first returned from an injury, but he has an ERA of less than 1 in his last 3 starts. That's particularly impressive when you consider the fact that Weaver's last 3 starts have been against St. Louis, Boston, and Detroit. The Angels have a huge offensive advantage in this series. The Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. The Angels are 7-0 in their last 7 road games versus a right-handed starter. The Angels are 10-1 in their last 11 games against a righty. The Mariners are 1-6 in Hernandez's last 7 starts against the Angels. Take the Angels.
-= TOP PLAY =-
MLB
Jul 13 '13
10:10p
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Take: Total 8½ un-105
in 16h
*5 Star TOP Play 100% Angle* The Milwaukee Brewers come into this game with a very short-handed lineup. Ryan Braun will miss the game as will Aramis Ramirez. Those two guys are their best run producers and this lineup is much weaker without them. The Diamondbacks have been a surprise this year, but it isn't because of their offense. Arizona's lineup isn't very good from top to bottom. Randall Delgado is a good young starter for the Diamondbacks and I think he has a bright future. Kyle Lohse has a solid 3.36 ERA on the road this year.
The under is 12-0 in Lohse's last 12 starts versus a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in Lohse's last 6 road games versus a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in Lohse's last 6 starts as a road underdog. The under is 8-0 in Lohse's last 8 games as an underdog. The under is 5-0 in the Brewer's last 5 games overall. The under is 4-0 in the Diamondback's last 4 versus a righty. The under is 6-0 in the Diamondback's last 6 versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%. The under is 4-0 in Lohse's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 4-0 in the Brewers' last 4 as an underdog. In all a massive 55-0 angle backs this play. Take the under BIG!
Washington (Haren) at Miami (Fernandez) (-120) 7:15 ET
4% Miami (Fernandez) (-120)
Not often we get to line up on the Marlins this season, but this is an ideal spot. In the last month since returning their 2 best bats to the lineup, Miami has gone 18-13. Washington continues to struggle on the road where their league worst .215 BA has led to a 20-26 road mark. Haren is having an awful year. Washington has lost his last 9 starts over which time Haren has gone 0-7 with a 6.66 ERA. Washington is 1-8 on the road in 9 Haren starts where he has a 5.57 ERA. And things are getting worse for Haren as he has a 7.52 ERA his L3 starts. Fernandez has been one of the biggest surprises in MLB. That has been especially true from this mound. Pitching for a team who is 34-57, Fernandez is 5-5 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .194 OBA and 99/37 KBB in 98 2/3 IP. Miami has won 6/8 Fernandez home starts in which he has a 1.47 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.
Chicago White Sox (Danks) at Philadelphia (Pettibone) (-125) 7:05 ET
4% Philadelphia (Pettibone) (-125)
Break up the Pale Hose. CWS comes off a series win at Detroit in which they scored 22 runs while batting .358 for a 2-1 record the last 3 nights. That is still not going to deter us from fading them in this pitching matchup. Despite those victories, CWS remains on negative slides of 12-29 and 4-11 with one of the worst offenses in the league. That does not figure to get any better in this pitching matchup or vs. a surging Philadelphia team who has won 7/10 to pull within 1 game of .500. I have recently authored articles entitled “TRGS Home/Road Dichotomies” available at WSA Sports Picks. I have taken a look at the all-important home/road splits for MLB pitchers for the 1st half of 2013. Each of these starters are on the list for his respective work home and away. In 5 road starts, both Danks and the White Sox are 0-5 as he has twirled to 6.43 ERA with a .310 OBA. Conversely, Philadelphia is 7-1 in 8 Pettibone home starts in which he has a 2.45 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Pitching in excellent current form, Pettibone has a 2.35 ERA in his last 4 starts. Look for him to cool off the temporary offensive surge of the White Sox.
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