7-13-13

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John Ryan

25* NL Titan GOW: Marlins
25* AL Titan: Angels

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Scott Landau Saturday:
OVER 7 -115 col-lad / KC +130 / TEX +151 / OAK -122

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Stephen Nover

Reds

Free Play Rangers

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SPORTS WAGERS

Winnipeg +6 over HAMILTON

This line has jumped from -4 to the current -6 and for us, that’s a huge red flag. The thinking is that the Ti-Cats will come in today extremely focused after opening the year 0-2 but we’re not convinced that Hamilton has the horses to win, let alone to cover by a margin. Tiger-Cats receivers, Andy Fantuz, Onrea Jones and Dave Stala are all injured and out of the lineup. All told, Hamilton's starting five receivers have combined for a grand total 1,952 receiving yards in their CFL careers. That is no doubt music to the ears of the veteran defensive backs in the Winnipeg secondary. The Ticats will start their third player at wide-side cornerback in three games on and none of the moves had to be made because of injury. It’s now Raymond Brown’s turn and before the season started, he was the third option. The Tiger-Cats are starting their backup tailback in Chevon Walker, who lost his starting job this year to C.J. Gable. Hamilton has proven nothing. They were torched by Edmonton in Week 2 and they’re in worse shape this week. The Ti-Cats have no running game to speak of and that means Henry Burris is going to have to make a lot of decisions. Under pressure, Burris has been known to make a lot of bad decisions and no doubt he’ll be under some pressure here.

Winnipeg is 1-1 after opening the year with two games against Montreal. As it turns out, Montreal has looked dreadful and that makes the Blue Bombers look less appealing but we’re not buying that for a second. Winnipeg turned the ball over 10 times in the first two games and should be 2-0 with outstanding defensive numbers. The Bombers have a huge edge on both the offensive and defensive lines and should be able to put up some big rushing yards against a defense that can’t stop the marching band. Winnipeg is so undervalued here. They’ve had three more days of preparation than the Ti-Cats, they have confidence and they’re taking back a sweet number. Hamilton has always been a poor favorite and in this spot, they’re a poor choice spotting points again. Upset possibility.


EDMONTON +4 over B.C. Lions

Tough game to call because the Lions have looked completely out of sorts and we’re not sure why. This guest has as much or more talent as any team in the CFL, yet they are 1-1 and have been anything but impressive. The Lions won last week at home against the Argonauts but pretty it was not. They could have buried Toronto early but did not have that killer instinct in them. The Lions were smoiked in Week 1, they let the Argos hang around in Week 2 and its entirety, B.C.’s performance thus far concerns us. Perhaps they get right this week but we’re not willing to bet on it, especially when asked to spot points on the road.

The Eskies looked brutal in Week 1 but had a complete turnaround in Week 2 and one has to wonder if that was them or are the Tiger-Cats that bad. What we know for sure is that Edmonton is getting better. They have a sound defense that could arguably be the top unit in the CFL. The offense is concerning, especially with a rookie QB making just his third career CFL start. No question Eskies QB Mike Reilly will be extra jacked up to face his former team but he’ll be facing a veteran and talented defense, unlike the one he saw in Hamilton last week. On paper, the Lions are the better team but games are not played on paper. The Lions have not looked sharp enough to get a road endorsement laying points and it’s for that reason we’ll sit this one. The best play of all here could be going under the total of 49 because both offense have struggled and figure to do so again today against two very good defenses. NO BETS

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SPORTS WAGERS

ARIZONA -1½ +165 over Milwaukee

The Brewers outhit the D-Backs 8-4 last night and lost 2-1. On Thursday night, Milwaukee outhit the Snakes 9-5 and lost 5-3. This visitor has just 15 wins in 44 road games, where it continues to find ways to lose. The Brewers figure to come into this one dejected and looking more forward to the break than playing more baseball. Kyle Lohse is not pitching for the Cardinals anymore. Lohse has five wins in 18 starts after going 16-3 last year for the Redbirds where he significantly outperformed his xERA again. Lohse’s control is legit, but history says not to trust him, especially at this park where he’s been tagged for 15 hits and nine runs over two starts since 2010 with an ERA of 9.00 over just eight frames. Current D-Backs have 34 hits in 103 AB’s (.330) against Lohse so an implosion here would not surprise.

Randall Delgado was mediocre at best in June, at least on the surface (4.05 ERA, 1.50 WHIP). However, his skills were really good with 16 K’s and just four walks in 20 innings to go along with a nice 52% groundball rate.In two July starts against the red-hot Dodgers and Mets, Delgado struck out nine and didn’t walk a batter in 13 frames. Delgado is getting better with each passing start. He has the arsenal and skills to stick in the rotation for a long time. Against the unmotivated Brewers, the price on the D-Backs spotting the runs is appealing enough to step in. D-Backs often put up crooked numbers at home and this one has that potential.


Houston +216 over TAMPA BAY

It’s not uncommon for a team to lose again the day after snapping a long winning streak. The Rays had just four hits last night as a -260 favorite and now Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona) is almost as big a favorite as David Price. Hernandez has a crazy 21% hr/f with runners on base, the highest mark in that scenario among starting pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched. Hernandez also has a below average 1.32 WHIP and just eight quality starts in 17 attempts this year. There are other warning flags as well. Hernandez is 0-4 in his past five starts with an ERA of 4.96. His strikeouts are decreasing with just 15 over his last 33 frames and over his past two starts, he has a WHIP of 1.61. Hernandez faced the Astros in Houston on July 3 and in six innings he had zero strikeouts. Overall, the Rays have lost six of his last nine starts and if he and the Rays win today, so be it but guys like Hernandez should never be in this price range.

It may surprise you to learn that Dallas Keuchel posted the fifth-best skills of any AL starter in June. Keuchel struck out 28 batters in 27 June innings while walking just five. Those skills gave nearly full support to the 3.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP he posted that month. The difference has been his slider. He has thrown it 167 times this year and prior to his last start, batters had two extra-base hits and a .250 SLG% against it. Keuchel was whacked by these Rays back in Houston on July 1 but the kid followed that up with a strong performance the next time out in Arlington, where he held the Rangers off the scoreboard for the first five frames. Keuchel is not a great pitcher. He’s found a pitch that is working big time and it remains to be seen how long he can rely on one pitch. However, he’s not the one spotting more than 2-1 and the take-back on him and the Astros make this risk worth the reward. Of course the Astros can win again because Roberto Hernandez loses far more games than he wins

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INTPICKS

Today's Official Picks

Saturday, July 13, 2013

All 1 unit

MLB

10:05 PM ET

Boston @ Oakland

Play OVER 8

10:10 PM ET

Milwaukee @ Arizona

Play UNDER 8.5

* PARLAY ALERT: Boston @ Oakland OVER 8 + Milwaukee @ Arizona UNDER 8.5 (Pays +265)

(7-1 official play run)

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Marc lawrence

tigers
Phil game 1
oak

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Dave Essler

Minnesota
Milwaukee
Toronto
Cincinnati

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Z Money Sports

Chicago White Sox gm 1
Detroit Tigers
La Angels

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ANDRE GOMES

WNBA - 653 Minnesota Lynx @ 654 Tulsa Shock
Projected Line: 156 points
This isn't a great spot for Minnesota, as they will play their fourth game in seven days. The Lynx's last game was a big emotional game for them. They played with a lot of revenge at Indiana due to last year's finals and after today's game, they won't play until July 19! Seimone Augustus is banged up and I wouldn't be surprised if she doesn't play today for precautionary reasons. This is a clear letdown spot for Minnesota, who has been quite inconsistent offensively this season, especially while playing on the road. They are averaging an offensive rating of 119.1 at home, but just 95.3 on the road! Tulsa is coming from one of their worst defensive games of the season against the LA Sparks, who was coming fired up for that game in order to pick up their first road win of the season. Things will be different tonight and so, I believe Minnesota won't be so dominant on offense in here.

On the other hand, I expect the Shock to struggle on offense tonight against the #4 ranked defense in the league. Their best player Glory Johnson left the team's last game against the LA Sparks with a neck injury and she is questionable for tonight. Also Tiffany Jackson-Jones played for the first time this season against the Sparks and she'll need time to get into game shape and to feel comfortable on the team's system. On the other side, Elizabeth Cambage will need to battle a lot tonight against a very powerful Lynx frontcourt. All these factors take me to believe that both teams will have subpar offensive performances in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 653/654 Under 160 @ -110

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

D'Backs ML

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DANNY B:

Redsox / A's going "OVER" 8

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Goodfella

All Double dime

Marlins
Twins +1.5
Reds

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INDIAN COWBOY

WNBA

4-Unit play Take #651 Indiana Fever +2.5 vs. New York (6pm)

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Accu-Score MLB


ML-Home Wins 55 to 59.9% 142-83, 63.1% +2378 -

BOS 975 vs OAK 976 -- Over 50% on Oakland Athletics -125
CIN 951 vs ATL 952 -- Over 50% on Atlanta Braves -129
KC 971 vs CLE 972 -- Over 50% on Cleveland Indians -140
NYM 955 vs PIT 956 -- Over 50% on Pittsburgh Pirates -180
WAS 957 vs MIA 958 -- Over 50% on Miami Marlins -127

SV-Home Wins 55 to 59.9% 122-103, 54.2% +2323 -

KC 971 vs CLE 972 -- Value on Cleveland Indians -140
NYM 955 vs PIT 956 -- Value on New York Mets +165
WAS 957 vs MIA 958 -- Value on Miami Marlins -127
BOS 975 vs OAK 976 -- Value on Oakland Athletics -125
CIN 951 vs ATL 952 -- Value on Atlanta Braves -129

NL WEST DIV GAME SV 60-37, 61.9% +2252 -

SF 961 vs SD 962 -- Value on San Diego Padres -106
COL 959 vs LAD 960 -- Value on Colorado Rockies +150

SV-Home Line is -130 to -149 119-100, 54.3% +1884 -

TOR 967 vs BAL 968 -- Value on Toronto Blue Jays +131
KC 971 vs CLE 972 -- Value on Cleveland Indians -140
CHW 981 vs PHI 982 -- Value on Chicago White Sox +125
MIL 963 vs ARI 964 -- Value on Milwaukee Brewers +123
CHW 979 vs PHI 980 -- Value on Chicago White Sox +125

4 STAR TOTALS 178-146, 54.9% +1740 -

TOR 967 vs BAL 968 -- Under 9.5
MIL 963 vs ARI 964 -- Under 8.5
MIN 965 vs NYY 966 -- Under 8.5