7-19-13

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Hondo

Hondo has big red deficit

Hondo wrapped up the horse racing portion of fiscal year in typical fashion yesterday, losing with Rowdy Gal in the fourth at Del Mar to expand the deficit to 645 chacons.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will open the second half with Edward Snowden’s all-time favorite pitcher, Leake—20 units on the Reds.

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB DETROIT at KANSAS CITY

Play On - Home teams (KANSAS CITY) bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.50) (AL), after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less
44-25 since 1997. ( 63.8% 28.0 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% 0.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB SAN DIEGO at ST LOUIS

SAN DIEGO is 15-6 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing <=0.35 SB's/game over the last 3 seasons.

The average score was: SAN DIEGO (5.3) , OPPONENT (3.4)

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA WASHINGTON at INDIANA

Play On - Favorites (INDIANA) revenging a same season loss versus opponent, well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days
118-64 since 1997. ( 64.8% 47.6 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% 1.9 units )

WNBA WASHINGTON at INDIANA

Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (INDIANA) revenging a loss versus opponent, off an upset win as a road underdog
40-17 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.2% 0.0 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% 0.0 units )

WNBA WASHINGTON at INDIANA

Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points after 1 or more consecutive unders
415-267 since 1997. ( 60.9% 121.3 units )
10-8 this year. ( 55.6% 1.2 units )

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CHASE DIAMOND

9* MLB DIAMOND DOMINATOR

Miami vs. Milwaukee
Money Line: Milwaukee-145

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EAGLE EYE----Billy Joe Hershey
Houston Astros
KC Royals

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PAUL LEINER

100* Phillies -105

50* Over 7.5 - Reds/Pirates

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Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants - GIANTS TO WIN (-121)
Listed Pitchers: Kennedy vs Gaudin
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.65 units)

The Diamondbacks come out of the All Star break in first place in the NL West with a 50-45, although they are below .500 on the road at 23-25. The Giants sit fourth in the NL West after a bad month or so heading into the All Star break. The Giants are 43-51 overall, but they are 25-20 at home. Tonight the Diamondbacks will send Ian Kennedy to the mound who is just 3-6 on the season with a 5.42 ERA, .268 OBA and 1.40 WHIP. He posted a 6.83 ERA in June, and over 3 July starts he has a 5.68 ERA. Chad Gaudin has been great since making the switch to starting rotation as he is 3-1 with a 2.39 ERA overall, with a .214 OBA and 1.14 WHIP. As a starter he is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA. At home this season he has been exceptional with a 0.69 ERA, .191 OBA and 1.04 WHIP through 26 innings of work. Heading into the break he had a 1.10 ERA over his last 3 starts. Take note that the Diamondbacks are just 3-10 in their last 13 road games, 2-8 in their last 10 as a road underdog, 1-4 in Kennedy's last 5 road starts and 1-6 in his last 7 starts overall. The Giants are 6-3 vs the Diamondbacks this year. Kennedy has started against the Giants twice this year with the teams splitting those meetings, and Gaudin has faced Arizona once in a 6-2 victory. Gaudin has been a pitcher I've had my eye on as he always seems to keep the Giants in their games, and he has pitched great at home. Take the Giants here getting a short price at home.

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The Philly Godfather

My Moves

MLB [954] NY METS -111 100: -111

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Accu-Score MLB

ML-Home Wins 55 to 59.9% 142-83, 63.1% +2378 -

NYY 967 vs BOS 968 -- Over 50% on Boston Red Sox -158

SV-Home Wins 55 to 59.9% 122-103, 54.2% +2323 -

NYY 967 vs BOS 968 -- Value on New York Yankees +146

NL WEST DIV GAME SV 60-37, 61.9% +2252 -

ARI 963 vs SF 964 -- Value on San Francisco Giants -124

SV-Home Line is -130 to -149 119-100, 54.3% +1884 -

BAL 969 vs TEX 970 -- Value on Baltimore Orioles +128
CHC 961 vs COL 962 -- Value on Colorado Rockies -146
MIA 957 vs MIL 958 -- Value on Milwaukee Brewers -147

4 STAR TOTALS 178-146, 54.9% +1740 -

BAL 969 vs TEX 970 -- Under 9.5
SD 959 vs STL 960 -- Under 9
ARI 963 vs SF 964 -- Under 7.5
NYY 967 vs BOS 968 -- Under 9.5
ATL 979 vs CHW 980 -- Under 8.5
DET 973 vs KC 974 -- Under 8.5

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Joe Gavazzi

MLB
Seattle (Saunders) (-120) at Houston (Norris) 8:10 ET
5* Houston (Norris) (+110)

The Seattle bats were booming before the break and Saunders has pitched better on the road in recent outings. But the YTD home/road pitching dichotomy is too much for us to pass up at this home dog price. While Seattle is just 3-7 in 10, Saunders road starts where he has a 5.28 ERA. Houston counters with another great home season by Norris in which he has a 2.27 ERA. Home dog is the way to go here!

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Vincent Rizzo Sports

MLB PREMIUM PLAY

BOSTON -150 (3.00U)

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"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

For Friday "Mr Chalk" likes two the Rockies -$142/Cubs and the Mets -$120/Phillies for $50.

"Mr Chalk" was 62-33 +$1109 for the 1st half of the 2013 MLB Season.

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Hot pitchers
-- Nolasco is 1-1, 3.00 in two starts for the Dodgers.
-- Hefner is 2-0, 2.00 in his last four starts.
-- Liriano is 4-0, 1.26 in his last four starts. Leake is 3-1, 2.86 in his last six.
-- Turner is 2-1, 2.48 in his last four starts. Milwaukee won Lohse's last four home starts, scoring 26 runs.
-- Westbrook is 1-1, 2.57 in his last couple starts.
-- Colorado won seven of de ka Rosa's eight home starts.
-- Gaudin is 3-0, 2.70 in six starts this season.

-- Price is 2-1, 1.08 in three starts since coming off the DL.
-- Doubront is 3-0, 2.18 in his last five starts.
-- Holland is 3-0, 2.51 in his last four starts. WChen is 2-0, 1.47 in his last three outings.
-- Kazmir is 2-1, 2.90 in his last five starts, but Indians lost six of his last seven starts on foreign soil. Pelfrey is 1-1, 2.25 in his last two starts.
-- Saunders is 3-0, 1.33 in his last three starts.
-- Griffin is 2-0, 1.38 in his last couple starts. Weaver is 2-1, 2.05 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Strasburg is 1-1, 12.38 in his last couple starts.
-- Kendrick is 1-2, 5.50 in his last three starts.
-- Marquis is 0-2, 6.14 in his last four starts.
-- Samardzija is 1-2, 7.30 in his last four starts.
-- Kennedy is 0-3, 6.81 in his last seven starts.

-- Braves lost eight of last nine Hudson road starts; home teams are 17-2 in his starts this season. Danks is 1-4, 4.89 in his last six starts.

-- Rogers is 1-1, 6.32 inb three home starts this season.
-- Pettitte is 2-3, 6.08 in his last six starts.
-- Sanchez is 1-4, 6.46 in his last six starts. Santana is 0-1, 7.50 in his last three.
-- Norris is 1-4, 4.40 in his last seven starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. You're reading armadillosports.com. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Nolasco 6-18; Strasburg 5-18
-- Kendrick 7-19; Hefner 7-18
-- Liriano 2-12; Leake 4-18
-- Turner 1-8; Lohse 7-19
-- Marquis 5-19; Westbrook 4-12
-- Samardzija 6-19; de la Rosa 4-19
-- Kennedy 7-18; Gaudin 1-6

-- Hudson 4-19; Danks 4-10

-- Price 4-12; Rogers 2-8
-- Pettitte 6-16; Doubront 4-16
-- Chen 2-9; Holland 2-19
-- Kazmir 4-16; Pelfrey 6-16
-- Sanchez 3-15; Santana 8-19
-- Saunders 5-19; Norris 6-19
-- Griffin 1-19; Weaver 2-11

Totals
-- Eight of last nine Dodger games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Philly games stayed under the total.
-- Last eight Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Milwaukee games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five San Diego games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Colorado games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Diamondback games stayed under total.

-- Over is 7-1-2 in last ten Atlanta games.

-- Last six Tampa Bay games stayed under the total; four of Blue Jays' last five games went over.
-- Last three Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Baltimore games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Cleveland games stayed under total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Kansas City home games.
-- Five of last seven Seattle games went over the total.
-- Last six Oakland games stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Dodgers won six of their last eight games.
-- Phillies won six of their last eight games. Mets won five of last seven.
-- Pirates won three of their last four games.
-- Marlins won three of their last four games.
-- Cardinals won seven of their last nine games.
-- Cubs won six of their last nine games.
-- Arizona/Giants both won three of their last four games.

-- Rays won 14 of their last 16 games.
-- Orioles won four of their last five games.
-- Indians won five of their last six games.
-- Detroit won six of its last seven road games.
-- Mariners won their last three games, scoring 18 runs.
-- Oakland won five of its last seven games.

Cold teams
-- Nationals lost five of their last seven games.
-- Reds lost five of their last eight games.
-- Brewers lost four of their last five games.
-- Padres lost 14 of their last 16 games.
-- Colorado is 1-6 in game following its last seven wins.

-- Braves are 5-7 in their last dozen games. White Sox lost 13 of last 18.

-- Blue Jays lost three of their last four games.
-- Bronx lost five of its last eight games. Boston is 4-5 in its last nine.
-- Rangers lost four of their last five games.
-- Minnesota lost six of its last eight games, but won last two.
-- Royals lost their last five games, outscored 30-12.
-- Astros lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Angels lost four of their last five games.

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Cincinnati -117 (moneyline) at Bovada

There is no doubt that the Pittsburgh Pirates have turned the corner. They must overcome the collapses they have experienced in the last two years where they had consecutive productive first halves. The challenge will be great in this series, as Cincinnati has put together a 30-16 mark at home where they have played well all season. Francisco Liriano has returned to his rookie season form, but has a career 0-2 mark vs. the Reds. Mike Leake has allowed 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts lowering his ERA to 2.69, and improving his season mark to 8-4. The Pirates are 91-210 in their last 301 games vs. a winning team, while the Reds are 40-19 in their last 59 as a favorite. Make the play on Cincinnati.

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JOHN RYAN

25* Texas