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Erin Rynning
10* Miami
10* Miami
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Kyle Hunter
4* Tampa BayComment
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INDIAN COWBOY
WNBA
4* Over 159 - Minnesota
4* Tulsa -2
4* Fever -5Comment
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CHRIS JORDAN
600* Pirates +105 (list Liriano only)Comment
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Sportswagers 7/19 MLB
Today's Free Picks for Jul 19, 2013
Seattle @ HOUSTON
HOUSTON/Seattle over 8½ -110
Joe Saunders’ 50% groundball rate this season is the best percentage that he’s ever posted over his career. While that groundball rate growth is nice, it still only brings him up to mediocrity. Saunders has a lousy 33/61 BB/K split over 115 frames. His 1.40 WHIP and .283 BAA are both further proof that Saunders hasn’t discovered anything new. He’s also benefitted from pitching at Seattle’s Safeco Field. On the road, Saunders is 3-5 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. He’s allowed 79 hits in 59.2 road innings while issuing 18 walks and striking out 24. The M’s have won Saunders’ last three starts but he had a ridiculous 89% strand rate over that span. Truth is, this is a marginal skill set at best, making Joe Saunders on the road, an implosion waiting to happen. In 11 home starts this season, Bud Norris is 4-3 with a 2.27 ERA in 71.1 IP. Don’t buy into those numbers for a second because Norris’s profile has more warning signs than swimming in Lake Ontario. Norris’s one weapon from previous years, the strikeout, has fallen off and the results tell us the caliber of pitcher he is without it. Recent back problems may have hastened the decline, but it was equally unimpressive in April. Pitching to lefties has never been his specialty, and he's getting pounded especially hard this year. We can't blame the results on a small sample size either (230 LHB total batters faced vs. 211 RHB). Left-handed hitters have batted .322 against Norris this year with a .378 OBP, a .491 SLG% and a .868 OPS. Those are sick numbers and that’s a big problem here against the M’s because of the nine hitters in Seattle’s line-up, seven or eight will bat left. Some serious ERA regression is coming in Norris’s second half and it’s time to capitalize on it.
Our Pick
HOUSTON/Seattle over 8½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Oakland @ L.A. ANGELS
L.A. ANGELS -1½ +165 over Oakland
Enough is enough already and it’s time to stop the madness regarding the Oakland Athletics. The A’s .245 team batting average is the fourth worst in the AL and it’s also .001 points ahead of the Mariners .244 team batting average. In the AL, Oakland’s BA is ahead of only the Mariners, Yankees and Astros. Prior to the break, Oakland took two of three from Boston but had just 16 total hits in the three games. Prior to that series, Oakland had 13 hits in three games against the Pirates. The A’s are not going to keep winning with four hits a game. The baseball gods have been on the A’s side in the first half but it’s unsustainable. The A’s are not even an average team, they are below average and their second half record will prove so. Then there’s A.J. Griffin and his 8-6 record with a 3.68 ERA. That’s nice but like the team he pitches for, Griffin too, is bordering on average. Control is Griffin’s best asset but he also misses bats reasonably well with 94 K’s in 122 innings. However, Griffin has a 33%/49% groundball/fly-ball profile. He’s benefitted greatly from pitching at home but on the road, he is just 4-4 with a 3.94 ERA and an xERA of 5.22. He’s also given up 12 jacks in 61 road innings and that’s what happens at other parks with a huge fly-ball bias profile. If you’re a regular reader of this space than you’re aware we’re not big supporters of Jered Weaver. This guy has been overvalued for years but in this case he’s not. As we start the second half, it’s the A’s misleading record that has this visitor way overvalued and they will be high on our fade list until the prices dictate otherwise. This one is all about fading the A’s weak lineup and with a nice take-back spotting the runs, the reward is worth the risk.
Our Pick
L.A. ANGELS -1½ +165 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)
Chicago @ COLORADO
Chicago +135 over COLORADO
The Cubbies are playing some pretty good ball. They earned a split in a four-game set with the Cardinals before the break and have won 11 of their past 18 games. Jeff Samardzija has been whacked in his last two starts but he faced a hot-hitting Angels’ squad that took him yard four times but it should be of little concern because he was throwing well. Samardzija has some of the best skills in the league with 128 K’s in 124 frames to go along with a 50% groundball rate. Current Rockies have just 13 hits in 59 career AB’s (.220) against Samardzija and it would be of no surprise to see him thrive again to start the second half. Before missing almost all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, Jorge De La Rosa fell into the category of pitchers who were "one skill away" from turning the corner and becoming truly profitable. That one skill in De La Rosa's case was control. So far this season, the lefty has limited walks and improved results have followed but De la Rosa's post-TJ surgery skill set raises questions. His control has improved but at the expense of strikeouts. De la Rosa's improved ERA is a product of a lucky 81% strand rate. His hr/f is well below the levels established in two prior full seasons. By all accounts, De La Rosa is fully healthy again and his surface numbers are encouraging. But below the surface, a marginal strikeout rate, an historically low HR/9 rate and a reliance on stranding base runners raise questions about his ability to maintain the level of performance he's displayed so far. And if his control abandons him (4 walks and 4 K’s in his last start in 5 IP) there's a real potential for his second half to turn ugly. The window of opportunity to sell high on De La Rosa may not be open long so we’ll look to take advantage now.
Our Pick
Chicago +135 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.70)
N.Y. Yankees @ BOSTON
BOSTON -1½ +125 over N.Y. Yankees
The Yankees are a team in trouble. You’ll usually find that after the break the pretenders go away quietly and that’s precisely what we expect from this makeshift Yankees lineup. The Yanks limped into the break by losing two of three at home to the Twins, a team they previously slaughtered every time they played them. In that three-game set, the Yanks scored seven runs against the league’s worst starting staff. The Pinstripes have scored two runs or less in five of their last eight. Andy Pettitte’s career is winding down and we’ll continue to fade his struggling 41-year old arm that has over 3200 career innings in the regular season and 276 playoff innings. In his last start, Pettitte struck out one batter in six innings. Over his last three starts, he’s struck out seven in 16.1 frames. Overall Pettitte has a 4.39 ERA but an xERA of 5.30 over his last three starts to go along with a 1.57 WHIP tells us that he’s a huge second half risk. Meanwhile, Felix Doubront has a 1.91 ERA over his last five starts and has thrown four pure quality starts in the process. He has been outstanding against the Yankees over the last two seasons, as all five of his starts against them have been what we call dominant. The Yankees do not hit left-handed pitching well (.235 BA and .649 OPS). Doubront has posted some of the best skills of any starter the second and third time he goes through lineups (55% groundball rate and an elite strikeout rate) so the key is to get to him early when he’s inconsistent with his control. However, we’re not sure the Yanks are capable of getting to anyone early right now, especially a guy like Doubront, who possesses some nasty stuff. For the Red Sox, this is the perfect way to begin the second half, against a banged up Yankees team that is more ripe to get beat than they’ve been in a very long time.
Our Pick
BOSTON -1½ +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)Comment
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Sportswagers CFL
Today's Free Picks for Jul 19, 2013
Toronto @ WINNIPEG
WINNIPEG +3½ +105 over Toronto
The Grey Cup champs are 1-2 but even that mark is a fortunate one because they did not deserve to win their opener, a game in which the Tiger-Cats pretty much did anything they wanted to. The Argos subsequently could not generate enough offense in a Week 2 loss to B.C. and they were manhandled in Week 3 by the Riders in Toronto last Friday. Not only should the Argos be 0-3, there is nothing exciting going on here. The offense has been predictable with Ricky Ray having a high completion percentage because of little dump offs that are getting the team nowhere. The Argos offense is not difficult nor is it complex. You basically stop, contain or frustrate Chad Owens and you ruin the Argos chances.
Winnipeg is so close to being relevant. Last week against Hamilton, the Bombers cleaned up their turnover issue but committed an astounding 19 penalties for 161 negative yards. In the first two weeks of the season, Winnipeg turned the ball over a staggering 10 times. Despite the penalties and turnovers, Winnipeg is 1-2 and both losses have been by just five points each. Wipe out those mental miscues and we’d be talking about a 3-0 Blue Bombers squad that would likely be giving away 3½ points instead of being offered them. This line opened as a pick-em but has been bet up because the Bombers defense has suffered some injuries to key personnel. The body count on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers defense has risen to four. Terrell Parker, Desia Dunn and D-tackles J.T. Gilmore and Bryant Turner will all miss this week. Injuries are a part of the game. Every team suffers them and every team is ready with suitable backups. These are key players, yes, but it also opens the door for some other guys to show what they have and it’s not like they’re coming in against some juggernaut offense. With those injuries, Winnipeg might just dig down deeper tonight and focus on playing 60 minutes of smart football. Being at home will give the Bombers a boost for sure. Combine home field with playing a smarter 60 minutes and Winnipeg is more than capable of defeating a Toronto team that has shown very little in terms of creativity, motivation, big-play capabilities or anything else. The Argos are not only being asked to win here, they’re being asked to win by a margin and there is no way the Double Blue is getting our money with the way they’ve played thus far. Let them prove otherwise. We’re calling Winnipeg outright but will gladly accept the points with a little juice as well.
Our Pick
WINNIPEG +3½ +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)Comment
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Sports Cash System
free picks:
Los Angeles Dodgers +150 over the Washington Nationals (MLB Baseball)
Cleveland Indians / Minnesota Twins OVER 9 (Total Runs Scored in Game) (MLB Baseball)
Tampa Bay Rays -131 over the Toronto Blue Jays (MLB Baseball)Comment
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Roxxy WNBA
shock over 157
fever -6
lynx -10Comment
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Vic Monte Sports
PRIVATE PLAY - ST LOUIS CARDS -1.80Comment
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RIVER CITY SHARPS
MLB
8:10 PM Miami Marlins/Milwaukee Brewers
2 UNITS OVER 8 -105Comment
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Brad wilton
60 dime
giantsComment
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Ben Burns' Week 4 BEST BET! (3-0/100% YTD!)
Long known for his GRIDIRON DOMINANCE, Ben Burns ABSOLUTELY KILLED IT w/ his football picks (pro AND college!) last regular season. Then, he DID SO AGAIN in the playoffs and bowls! So, it comes as NO SURPRISE that he's already off to a PERFECT 3-0/100% start to the CFL season. Here's WINNER #4!
Hamilton +6.5Comment
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BOB BALFE
CINCINNATI REDS -115
(Leake/Liriano)
It happens every year to this Pittsburgh team. They hit the all star break and start fading. I hope its not the case because I love watching this team play. I just don't think they are as stacked as some of the other teams in their division and until they get a few more big named guys this will continue to happen. Again, I hope I am wrong. We have two great pitchers on the mound tonight. The Pirates were really struggling to put up runs and a long layoff never helps hitters.
Take the Reds at home.Comment
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DHayes
1* SD Padres RL+1.5 -130Comment
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BEN BURNS
*EARLY* Customer Appreciation Divisional O/U BEST BET!
UNDER - Toronto vs Tampa Bay
*10* BLUE CHIP O/U BLOWOUT!
UNDER - Baltimore vs Texas
**FRIDAY HOT SIDE** *10* Personal Favorite!
LA Angels ML
CFLWeek 4 BEST BET!
Sunday July 21st
Hamilton +6.5Comment
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