7-22-13

[goirish25]

Today's MLB Picks

Cleveland at Seattle

The Indians look to take advantage of a Seattle team that is coming off a 14-5 win over Houston and is 0-5 in Aaron Harang's last 5 starts after scoring 5 or more runs in the previous game. Cleveland is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, JULY 22 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.755; Washington (Haren) 14.734 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+115); Under

Game 903-904: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 14.757; NY Mets (Gee) 14.108 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 8 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Over

Game 905-906: San Diego at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Cashner) 15.416; Milwaukee (Gorzelanny) 14.631 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Over

Game 907-908: Miami at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 14.452; Colorado (Pomeranz) 15.992 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Colorado (-165); 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-165); Under

Game 909-910: Chicago Cubs at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Garza) 13.501; Arizona (Skaggs) 14.961 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Arizona (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-140); Under

Game 911-912: Cincinnati at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.872; San Francisco (Lincecum) 13.660 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 8 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+100); Over

Game 913-914: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 16.123; Boston (Workman) 15.113 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 915-916: NY Yankees at Texas (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nova) 13.478; Texas (Darvish) 14.947 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Texas (-180); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-180); Over

Game 917-918: Baltimore at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Feldman) 14.500; Kansas City (Davis) 15.620 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-135); 9 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115); Under

Game 919-920: Oakland at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Milone) 16.155; Houston (Keuchel) 13.412 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 9 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-170); Over

Game 921-922: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.472; White Sox (Sale) 14.733 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); Over

Game 923-924: Minnesota at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Deduno) 15.938; LA Angels (Blanton) 14.995 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-165); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+145); Under

Game 925-926: Cleveland at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Jimenez) 16.764; Seattle (Harang) 15.676 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+100); Over

Game 927-928: LA Dodgers at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ryu) 14.329; Toronto (Johnson) 15.729 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 9 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-120); Under

[goirish25]

Chase Diamond

9* Baltimore -125

[goirish25]

DAVE ESSLER

MLB

Pirates at Nationals: Either cheap for Washington or a trap. Haren has been terrible and not backable, really, at any price. People will want to fade Morton, but the Pirates won a huge game on Sunday in Cincinnati. The drawback here is the Pirates used a lot of arms. There's part of me that says this goes over (because of bullpens) and at 8 I might, but not 8.5

Atlanta-Mets: Teheran is by far the Braves liability and has benefited from Turner Field. I do like the Mets against RHP much better, but Atlanta used NONE of their bullpen in the loss to the White Sox. If the Braves are all healthy and have the right lineup, I think they win this one late, if not sooner.

Padres-Brewers: Milwaukee just used way too many pitchers to back again here, and the Padres do far better against LHP. They're playing well and no reason not to back them, other than Gorzellany gets me more often than not.

Miami-Colorado: Again, the Fish used a ton of arms and Keohler isn't typically someone that's going to pitch deep, and I simply don't trust Pomeranz yet, at least not at -160. Just hasn't has enough experience, and actually pitched a minor league game over the AS break to keep his routine, which COULD be a plus. At 10 I could consider the over, but not 10.5 and would have to pass the side or take Fish RL.

Cubs-D-backs: Skaggs also pitched in Visaloia over the break, but simply cannot be trusted here. We've got a known entity in Garza facing a team that comes home after a brutal series with the Giants. Cubs or nothing, and lean under.

Reds at Giants: Not betting a Reds game! I would take the Giants simply because Arroyo is not that great against RHP's, but really think the play here is on the under. Giants not hitting and Lincecum should do just enough to keep the Giants in this game. I don't fade a good team that plays sound (except when Sandoval tries to score on a WP) with a good bullpen at home.

New York-Texas: Very obvious rest factor here since Texas has been home and NY won't get to Arlington till about when the sun rises. Pretty steep price for Darvish here and some of that likely based on the travel factor, because the Rangers haven't been hitting. Might consider the Yankees RL and the under here.

Baltimore-Kansas City: Two teams that cannot be trusted and two pitchers that cannot be trusted. Because it's still Feldman I almost always expect some regression which never seems to come, and because Davis is a flyball pitcher I have to lean Orioles here. But, they've got some travel to do as well. When I take the Royals they are the Royals, so probably better games, but not sure this doesn't go over.

Oakland-Houston: I would dearly love to find a way to take the Astros at this number, but could only do it with the RL. One has to wonder if Oakland isn't a little fat after having beaten up on the Angels and then travelling, but it's still Houston. Facing Milone should seem like BP after facing Felix, and that's an awful bit total, even in Houston, for teams than CAN go into slumps. Could be tough here with the Astros using so many arms against Seattle, but if and when I do fade the A's it's typically against LHP. We'll see who does and doesn't play first.

Detroit at Chicago: I suppose if we were ever to bet on the White Sox again it would be with Sale on the mound. With a manager perhaps going and players on the trading block, they're a dicey proposition, but they've got a hated division rival coming in, and although Max is an all-star, he's not unhittable. Have to lean White Sox and under.

Minnesota-LA Angels: Because it's Joe Blanton and because most of the Twins have hit him hard, I can't take the Angels. Good luck. If Deduno is on, he is a groundball pitcher in a big park going against a team that lost badly to a division rival Sunday. This could well be the disaster play of the day.

Seattle-Cleveland: I suspect everyone will want to back Harang after his early season success at home as well as the beating Seattle has been giving people lately. Ubaldo simply isn't (usually) going to pitch deep, and at -110 they're seemingly begging for people to bet on the Mariners. Lean over at 8, but think it may go up.

Dodgers at Blue Jays: Probably the most interesting game of the day. We love the Jays against LHP, we love the Dodgers with their full (most of it) lineup back, we love the Dodgers bullpen, we love the Dodgers not having to have Ryu bat. And, we love the fact that the Dodgers have seen plenty of Johnson when he was with the Fish. So, we should take Toronto

[goirish25]

Jack Clayton

5* Mound Mismatch Massacre

5* Tigers.
A pair of aces are on the hill, but only one of these teams has an offense. The Chicago White Sox have been awful at the plate all season, 29th in runs scored, 27th in on base percentage. That's why they have a losing record both home and away. Chicago is on a 2-7 run at home, and the White Sox are 17-35 in their last 52 vs. a team with a winning record. Detroit comes to town with a great offense and starter Chris Sale has a losing record in 39 innings against them, along with a 4.35 ERA. The Tigers are 27-11 in their last 38 during game 1 of a series and 9-4 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Strikeout ace Max Scherzer (13-1) will have a field day against this popgun Chicago offense. Play the Tigers.

[goirish25]

Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

Milwaukee Brewers

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB PITTSBURGH at WASHINGTON

Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (PITTSBURGH) with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season-NL, with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (NL)
197-83 since 1997. ( 70.4% 69.4 units )
11-9 this year. ( 55.0% -3.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB BALTIMORE at KANSAS CITY

BALTIMORE is 139-97 (+51.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.5) , OPPONENT (4.3)

[goirish25]

MLB

Monday, July 22

Hot pitchers
-- Gee is 2-0, 3.08 in his last four starts.
-- Gorzelanny has a 2.81 RA in three starts, but is 0-2.
-- Garza is 5-0, 1.72 in his last five starts.
-- Lincecum is 2-0, 1.69 in last two starts; he threw a 148-pitch no-hitter nine days ago. Arroyo is 2-1, 2.37 in his last three starts.

-- Moore is 5-0, 1.91 in his last five starts. Workman gave up two runs in 6.2 IP in his only start (Donaldson hit homer off him in 7th for only runs).
-- Nova is 2-0, 1.59 in his last couple starts.
-- Scherzer is 3-0, 2.96 in his last four road starts.
-- Jimenez is 3-0, 4.00 in his last seven starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Washington lost Haren's last ten starts (0-7, 5.93, but 0-1, 1.64 in last two outings). Morton is 0-1, 4.55 in his last four starts.
-- Teheran is 1-1, 6.11 in his last three starts.
-- Cashner is 0-2, 4.88 in his last five starts.
-- Pomeranz is 0-3, 8.76 in his three starts this season. Koehler is 1-3, 6.20 in his last seven starts.
-- Skaggs is 1-1, 5.09 in his last four starts.

-- JJohnson is 0-3, 8.44 in his last four starts. Ryu is 1-1, 4.10 in his last six.

-- Darvish is 1-2, 4.88 in his last four starts.
-- Feldman is 1-1, 6.00 in three starts for Baltimore.
-- Davis is 0-3, 11.73 in his last three starts.
-- Keuchel is 0-2, 5.57 in his last four starts. Milone is 2-2, 6.67 in his last five outings.
-- Sale is 1-6, 3.70 in his last eight starts.
-- Blanton is 0-2, 9.20 in his last three starts. Deduno is 1-2, 4.26 in his last three outings.
-- Harang is 1-2, 5.90 in his last five starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. You're reading ***************.com. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Morton 1-6; Haren 3-17
-- Teheran 7-18; Gee 4-19
-- Cashner 5-15; Gorzelanny 1-3
-- Koehler 4-10; Pomeranz 0-3
-- Garza 0-11; Skaggs 2-5
-- Arroyo 2-19; Lincecum 8-19

-- Ryu 6-18 (3 of last 3); Johnson 2-12

-- Moore 6-19; Workman 0-1
-- Nova 3-7; Darvish 5-17
-- Feldman 5-18; Davis 6-17
-- Milone 6-19; Keuchel 1-12
-- Scherzer 4-19; Sale 6-18
-- Deduno 3-10; Blanton 7-19
-- Jimenez 5-19; Harang 5-15

Totals
-- Nine of last eleven Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Atlanta games.
-- Ten of last eleven Milwaukee games stayed under total.
-- Nine of last eleven Colorado games stayed under total.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Diamondback games.
-- Three of last four Cincinnati games went over the total.

-- Ten of last twelve Dodger games stayed under the total.

-- Five of last six Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Texas games.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Baltimore road games.
-- Last nine Oakland games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten White Sox games went over the total.
-- Last five Angel games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten Seattle games went over the total; eight of last ten Cleveland games stayed under total.

Hot teams
-- Mets won seven of their last ten games.
-- Brewers won five of their last six home games.
-- Rockies won three of their last four games.
-- Giants won five of their last seven games. Reds won four of their last six.

-- Dodgers won nine of their last eleven games.

-- Rays won 17 of their last 19 games.
-- Orioles won seven of their last eight games.
-- Angels won four of their last five home games. Minnesota won four of its last five games.
-- Mariners won their last six games, scoring 44 runs.

Cold teams
-- Pirates lost seven of their last eleven games. Nationals lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Braves lost three of their last four games.
-- Padres lost 16 of their last 19 games.
-- Marlins lost their last six road games, scoring only seven runs.
-- Cubs/Arizona both lost three of their last four games.

-- Blue Jays lost six of their last seven games.

-- Red Sox are 5-6 in their last eleven games.
-- Bronx lost six of its last ten games. Rangers lost seven of last eight.
-- Royals lost six of their last eight games.
-- Astros lost ten of their last 12. Oakland is 3-4 in its last seven games.
-- Detroit is 0-5 in game following its last five wins. White Sox lost 14 of their last 21 games.
-- Indians lost four of their last five road games.

[goirish25]

Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

ATLANTA -120 NYM (7pm)

MARC

NY/TEXAS - UNDER 8.5-105 (7pm)

DETROIT/CHICAGO - UNDER 7.5 -115 (8pm)

CHICAGO/ARIZONA - UNDER 8.5 -120 (940pm)

PJ - WTA

(ACE PLAY 2 units) - Sorana Cirstea -190 Ayumi Morita (515pm)

Kiki Bertens +145 Nicole Gibbs (1pm)

Stefanie Voegele +115 Ajla Tomljanovic (1pm)

Olga Govortsova +170 Julia Goerges (230pm)

Francesca Schiavone +125 Mallory Burdette (4pm)

[goirish25]

TMC Sports Advisors

Detroit/Chicago Under 7.5

Cincinnati

Cleveland

Oakland -1.5

10-3 last 13 Since ASG

[goirish25]

Teddy Covers

10* Dodgers

20* Rays

[goirish25]

Hondo

Hondo gets bludgeoned

Hondo returned most of his second-half profits yesterday because the Phillies and Nats obviously have no interest in his deficit-reduction program. As a result, the NRN (nasty red number) ballooned to 605 sabos.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will put in play the Post-No-Hitter-Letdown Theory – 20 units on Arroyo and the Reds to freak out Lincecum.

[goirish25]

Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

ATLANTA -120 NYM (7pm)

MARC

NY/TEXAS - UNDER 8.5-105 (7pm)

DETROIT/CHICAGO - UNDER 7.5 -115 (8pm)

CHICAGO/ARIZONA - UNDER 8.5 -120 (940pm)

PJ - WTA

(ACE PLAY 2 units) - Sorana Cirstea -190 Ayumi Morita (515pm)

Kiki Bertens +145 Nicole Gibbs (1pm)

Stefanie Voegele +115 Ajla Tomljanovic (1pm)

Olga Govortsova +170 Julia Goerges (230pm)

Francesca Schiavone +125 Mallory Burdette (4pm)

[goirish25]

CHRIS JORDAN

600 Mariners
200 Pirates

[goirish25]

Sportswagers

Today's Free Picks for Jul 22, 2013





Los Angeles @ TORONTO
Los Angeles +108 over TORONTO

The Blue Jays didn’t get any favors after the break by having to play the AL’s hottest team, the Tampa Bay Rays, who have won 20 of their past 24 ball games. Things don’t get any easier here with the Dodgers, the NL’s hottest team, who have won 21 of their past 26 games. In terms of frame of mind, give a big edge to the Dodgers, who are coming off a three-game sweep in Washington against three very tough starters in Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman. L.A. takes a big step down in class here in facing Josh Johnson. A normalized hit% and strand% are all it took for Johnson to go from elite to mediocre, though lingering effects of a shoulder injury may explain lost velocity. Johnson has started just 12 games this season and has one win and five quality starts. The Jays have lost Johnson’s last four starts and over his last five games he has a disturbing groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 37%/30%/33%. Pay close attention to Johnson’s 30% line-drive rate because there isn’t a pitcher in baseball that can have success with a rate that high. It’s also worth noting that these Dodgers have had plenty of success against Johnson when he was a member of the Marlins. Current Dodgers have 34 hits in 92 career AB’s versus Johnson for a BA of .370, an OBP of .416 and a sick OPS of 1.003. That’s when he was good.
In 18 starts, Hyun-jin Ryu has 14 pure quality one’s. He has a 51% groundball rate and a line-drive rate of 14%. Those are both elite numbers. Ryu just keeps going out there every five days and he gives the Dodgers a great chance of winning. xERA loves his strike-throwing ability and batted ball profile. Ryu has been as consistent as any pitcher in the game and that’s pretty impressive when you consider that he’s the first pitcher to make the jump directly from the Korean League to MLB. The Blue Birds are hitting just .248 against southpaws this season and they’ve never seen Ryu before. Wrong side favored.

Our Pick
Los Angeles +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)




Pittsburgh @ WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh +124 over WASHINGTON

The Nationals rarely win when Dan Haren starts. The last time Washington won a game that Haren started was way back on May 9, 11 starts ago when he beat the Tigers, 5-4. Since then, the Nationals have lost his last 10 starts with Haren going 0-7 over that span. Haren has become a big health risk given his cranky shoulder and bad back. His poor surface stats (5.61 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) have made him a big performance risk too. Haren has a fly-ball bias profile, a .299 BAA and 15% of the fly-balls hit off him have left the yard. The Nats continue to underachieve and every time they take a step forward they subsequently take two steps backwards.
Charlie Morton has been a pleasant surprise for the Pirates since joining the rotation. He's moved his dominance rate up, which pairs nicely with a very impressive 60% groundball rate. More groundballs is a recipe for success when you are pitching for the Pirates, who are innovators in the liberal use of infield shifts. Charlie Morton was never a big-K guy in the majors but he's been able to maintain a decent strikeout rate (and a 3.63 xERA) in his post-Tommy-John season. Morton is getting better with each start and his results are fully supported by his skills. Morton is high on our radar as a pitcher with great profit potential and we’ll gladly step in on him and the Pirates here.

Our Pick
Pittsburgh +124 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.48)




Cincinnati @ SAN FRANCISCO
Cincinnati +113 over SAN FRANCISCO

One of the most profitable angles in all of sports has been to wager against a pitcher coming off a no-hitter. We cashed in on that angle betting against Homer Bailey earlier this month and will look to do the same here. A no-hitter is rare. The focus it takes intensifies with each passing inning and then with each passing out after the sixth inning. What follows is a celebration, interviews, tons of accolades and a real sense of accomplishment. To come out for your next start is completely anti-climactic, not to mention a serious letdown. And it’s not like Lincecum is having a great year. In 19 starts, only eight have been of the pure quality variety. Lincecum has shown the least aggregate movement on his pitches in 2013 among NL starters. It's a problem that has made him extremely hittable and it's one that is exacerbated by his gradual loss of fastball velocity. He had a 94 mph average fastball velocity early in his career. Now it barely cracks 90 mph. Lincecum has a pedestrian 4.12 ERA at home this year in the majors best pitcher’s park and it’s likely that he runs into some serious trouble today.
After a disastrous 2011, the 35-year-old Bronson Arroyo came to camp in “the best shape of my life" and had his best skills season since 2004. Improved command and on base average were keys. Arroyo has carried that over to this season. Not only are his surface stats (3.42 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) good again, so too are his base skills. One explanation for Arroyo's resurgence could be his pitch mix. He is using his 87 mph fastball significantly less and is throwing more sliders and curveballs in its place. Another is his dominance with the bases empty. Arroyo has posted strong numbers both above and below the surface. It’s even more impressive when you consider that he pitches half his games at Great American Ballpark. Arroyo is a crafty lefty that is on a two-year good run and against this struggling line-up at this park, he’s very likely to thrive again. The Reds may very well be the best value on today’s card.

Our Pick
Cincinnati +113 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.26)

[goirish25]

SuperSportsGroup MLB

Pittsburgh v. Washington 7:05pm
PICK: Pirates ML +121 Game
PICK: UNDER 8.5 GAme -110

Atlanta v. NY 7:15pm
PICK: Mets ML +121 Game


Cincinnati v. SAn Fran 10:15pm
PICK: UNDER 7 Game -110


3 Team Parlay for
Cubs ML +125 Game
OVER 7.5 Mets Game -120
Reds ML +105 Game