7-24-13

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King Creole MLB Total Wed, 07/24/13 - 9:40 PM

dime bet - 912 ARI / 911 CHC - OVER 8
Analysis:
6:40pm PT - 9:40pm ET / #911 / Chicago Cubs w/ Samardzija @ Arizona Diamondbacks w/ Kennedy
Play on: OVER the TOTAL

When it comes to 'OVER' Umpires, Man in Blue ANGEL HERNANDEZ takes a back seat to NO one. Hernandez is the clear-cut #1 OVER Umpire in all of Major League Baseball for the 2013 season. Entering tonight's game out in Arizona. his YTD record is 16-5 O/U. 76% of his games have gone OVER the Total. He's one of only two umpires that have averaged 10 or more runs-per-game for the entire season. He has a very small strike zone as evidenced by his 13.3 strikeouts per game (lowest among all MLB Umps). He's gone 6-2 O/U in all National League games this year (10.5 runs-per-game). And he's gone 12-2 O/U (10.8 RPG) in all 'Righty vs Righty' pitching matchups. In terms of his current form, he enters tonight's game on a 8-1 O/U run dating back to late May. Average runs per game during that streak has been a whopping 12.0.

Last night's Game Two of this Chicago / Arizona series saw a combined 14 runs (Arizona won 10 to 4). Jeff Samardzija gets the call for the visiting Cubbies. In his last three starts, Samardzija's ERA is a whopping 7.50. He's allowed 5 home runs in his last two starts totaling only 12 innings... so we'll get a few long ball opportunities tonight. Yes, Samardzija is off a Quality Start in his last game. But he's gone 5-0-1 O/U in his last 6 games following a 'QT'. Also 6-1-1 O/U pitching on 4 days of rest and 5-1-1 O/U when the OU line is 8.5 or less runs.

Ian Kennedy will be the starting pitcher for the host D'Backs... and his ERA on the season is 5.29 (3-7 overall W/L record). That includes 5.36 when pitching at home... and 5.37 in his nighttime starts. He's also performed WORSE in his last three starts with an ERA of 6.00... and very poor K/BB ratio in which he's given up as many walks (9) as strikeouts (9).

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Paul Leiner

100* Cubs/DBacks - Over 8

50* Orioles -110

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GoodFella

Wednesday Early MLB Team Total

OAKLAND A's OVER 4.5 RUNS (-125)

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Sportswagers

Today's Free Picks for Jul 24, 2013





Los Angeles @ TORONTO
Los Angeles +103 over TORONTO


Once again it’s not that the Blue Jays lost for the sixth straight time yesterday, it’s the way they loss that has this team more demoralized than they’ve been the entire year. One night after committing five errors and getting smoked 14-5, the Blue Jays blew a five-run lead after six innings by allowing seven runs combined in the seventh and eighth innings en route to a 10-9 loss. In two games here, the Dodgers have scored 23 times on 29 hits. The Blue Jays have 28 hits over the past two days but the difference is they have two losses. Toronto is finding ways to lose. Poor defense, untimely hitting and lousy starting pitching have all contributed to the Jays being nine games under .500 and in last place in the AL East. The Blue Jays are not a team you want to back at a price right now against the hottest club in the majors. Prior to the season, Esmil Rogers was a "legitimate bullpen weapon," based upon the decent skills he posted in the 2H after escaping Coors Field for more pitcher-friendly pastures in Cleveland. Injuries have forced him back into the rotation, where he owns a career 6.56 ERA but he’s holding up well with a 3.85 ERA. The question is, can it last? Better luck and plate command have been the key drivers behind Rogers’ moderate success but a 26% line drive rate assures us that his 77% strand rate is not going to last. With Ricky Romero still scuffling in Triple-A and injured Brandon Morrow unlikely to return until mid-August, Rogers' encore audition as a starter will continue into the immediate future. A recent 7 ER disaster vs. Detroit and a not so good start against the Rays has the confidence Rogers was gaining trending the wrong way. Rogers now has the unenviable task of facing the Dodgers in an unforgiving park (Rogers Centre enhances HR’s by 24%).
Over his last five starts covering 29 innings, Ricky Nolasco has a strong 5/24 - BB/K rate. Since coming over from Miami, Nolasco is 1-1 in three starts with a 3.12 ERA. Nolasco was once a near-elite skill set just waiting for some hit/strand rate regression to facilitate a major breakout but pitching for a losing team year after year takes its toll. Now pitching for a team that is a legit threat to win a championship, Nolasco’s drive and focus has been rejuvenated. The Dodgers have won nine road games in a row and are very aware that the club has never won 10 road games in succession since moving from Brooklyn to L.A. in 1955. Not that they need any extra motivation but L.A. figures to have some here in an attempt to do something that no other Dodger team has done before them. The fact that the Dodgers are billed as the underdog in this contest is a bit ludicrous. Wrong side favored.

Our Pick
Los Angeles +103 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.06)





Chicago @ ARIZONA
Chicago +125 over ARIZONA


Since the start of 2012, Ian Kennedy’s skills have been getting progressively worse and have never been as bad as they are right now. When Kennedy posted a 21-4 record, a 2.88 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 2011, he exhibited great command but that is no longer the case. Last year, Kennedy posted a 1.30 WHIP and 4.02 ERA over 33 starts. This year his 1.39 WHIP is bordering on disastrous and the results are three wins in 19 starts with only eight of those being of the pure quality variety. Over his last five starts, Kennedy has walked 14 batters in 29 frames, leading to a 1.64 WHIP and 5.52 ERA. Kennedy has always had a fly-ball bias profile (37%/40% GB/FB) but this year his line-drive rate is higher than it’s even been at 25%. Kennedy also has a 5.40 ERA the first time he goes through lineups and his skills do not improve the second and third times through. Ian Kennedy has averaged over 200 innings per year over the past three seasons. In total, he’s pitched 636.2 innings since the start of the 2010 season. He’s spent 0 days on the DL over that span and it appears all those innings, including the 114 he’s worked this season, have taken a big toll on his arm. As the chalk, Kennedy, the D-Backs offense and their weak bullpen is far too big a risk.
Jeff Samardzija has some of the best skills in the game. He’s 4th in the NL in strikeouts with 134 in 131.1 innings. Samardzija also has a 48% groundball rate to go along with an impressive 18% line-drive rate. Samardzija is coming off a beauty at Coors Field, where he held the Rockies to one earned run in 7.1 frames. Samardzija is simply the far superior pitcher in this match-up and he’s taking back a tag. The D-Backs went off for 10 runs yesterday but that was a rare outburst from this host, as they have been held to three runs or less in eight of their past 12 games and as a group they have had little success against Samardzija with just 12 hits in 51 AB’s for a BA of .235.


Our Pick
Chicago +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)

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Philly Godfather

Jays
Phillies

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Playersbet 2-0 last night +5 units 15-2 run overall.

Colorado vs Miami

The linesmakers have been off this entire series on the total. We 1st saw it posted at 11, then they tried to fix it last night by setting it at 9 and tonight they are coming out with 9.5. It just doesn't make any sense. The Marlins entered Mondays game with a 37 inning scoreless stretch and you’re going to tell me the total is set at 11….come on now don’t give money away. Colorado on the other hand has scored 2 runs or fewer in nine of their last 15 games. The clear pick in this game is to ride the under, and that’s exactly what we are going to do. All series the under has cashed and it hasn't even been close. If we combine all the scores from the 1st 2 games we would be at 10 which wouldn't have even covered the 1st total set at 11 and barley covered game 2’s total of 9. We really see this as a gift and we are going to ride this streak and enjoy the lack of offense that both teams have. Colorado has just averaged 2.9 rpg in their last 10 and they have never faced Jacob Turner which is a clear advantage. The Marlins have averaged 1.57 rpg in their last 7. All the facts point us to a low scoring game as we look for another 3-2 type ball game and extend our streak to 16-2!

3 units: Colorado/Miami under 9.5

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Bankroll Sports

MLB Free Pick
2* Marlins/Rockies Over 9

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MLB odds and picks; Pirates back on the winning track
Andrew McCutchen playing himself into MVP race
Follow The Linemakers on Twitter

Andrew McCutchen is working his way into the NL MVP discussion.
By: The Linemakers More Experts
Published: Jul 24, 2013

Coming out of the All-Star break, the Washington Nationals were one of the teams we thought could make a serious move in their division. Let's face it, the Braves aren't that imposing of a team, and the Nationals appear to have more talent. However, instead of cutting into what was only a six-game lead by the Braves at the break, a five-game losing streak has dropped the Nats five games under .500 and put them eight games behind Atlanta and one back of Philadelphia.

Washington was in such dire need of finding a solution to their problems that they fired hitting coach Rick Eckstein on Monday and gave the job to Nats minor league hitting instructor Rick Schu. A similar tactic worked for the Ravens when they fired their offensive coordinator during a tough time in the regular season and ended up winning the Super Bowl, but expecting a rise out of this baseball team may be a lot to ask, especially since their pitching has been equally part of the problem.

Stephen Strasburg, unfairly or not, has been at the focus of those pitching problems and will take the mound tonight against the Pirates. Strasburg (5-7, 2.97 ERA) was outstanding in his first start after the break, allowing only two runs in seven innings, but still got the no-decision in a 3-2 loss to the Dodgers. It was the Nationals' fourth loss in five starts for Strasburg and reminiscent of early in the season when the Nats lost five of his first six starts.

Strasburg hopes to keep momentum from his last start going tonight as he faces a Pirates team that has begun to play well again. The Nationals are a -140 favorite, a number that still doesn't seem to account for what's happening with the two teams lately. If we're going on flat out talent and high expectations, yes, the Nats should probably be -160 with Strasburg. But if we're factoring current form from the offense, defense and pitching of each team, while also mixing in the actual recent performances of today's starting pitchers, the Nats should probably be no higher than -125.

The positives with Strasburg:

* Strasburg faced the Pirates on May 4 and got a no-decision, allowing four runs in seven innings during a 5-4 Washington win.

* Over his last six home starts, Strasburg is 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA.

The negatives with Strasburg:

* You can't rely on him to lay big money. He's been -140 or higher in his last five starts and the only win in that span came as a -230 favorite over the Padres on July 7. That includes losses at -154, -169, -260 and -140.

* The Nats' offense isn't giving support to any pitcher. Washington is 6-for-78 (.077) with runners in scoring position while losing 10 of their last 12 games.

* The Pirates have won 10 of their last 14 road games. This isn't the Padres, or the Marlins, who he lost to on July 12.

Why the Pirates will win tonight:

The Pirates had lost seven of their final 12 games before the All-Star break and began the second half by losing two straight to the Reds. But they've bounced back by winning their last three, and part of the reason is because their only true superstar on the team has stepped up.

Andrew McCutchen has a chance to really jump ahead as the favorite to win the NL MVP this season. He hasn't even gotten hot yet, or at least not until recently, but still has the numbers in place to make him a serious candidate. Most of all, he's on the verge of leading his team to the playoffs for the first time since 1992, which will surely garner him some votes.

As for the numbers, they are starting to come around. He's hit five homers in his last seven games to give him 14 for the season and is among league leaders in hits (112), average (.307) OPS (.879), stolen bases (21) and doubles (27). Last season, McCutchen fizzled down the stretch, but he seems to be rising to the occasion this time around.

Francisco Liriano (9-4, 2.44 ERA) has simply been better than Strasburg this season. He's coming off one of his worst outings, against the Reds, where he gave up five runs in 4.1 innings, but it was only his second loss over his last eight starts. In the other six starts, he stuck around long enough to grab the win. In fact, despite Pittsburgh having one of the best bullpens in baseball and going to it early, Liriano makes his starts count; he has received a decision in all 13 starts he's made.

If this were the third and final game of the series, it would be a tougher situation to play the Pirates, but since they play tomorrow as well, it doesn't have the same urgency for the home team trying to stop the sweep.

Wednesday's selections:

Pirates (Liriano) +130 at Nationals

Pirates/Nationals UNDER 7 (-105)

Rays (Price) -108 at Red Sox

Dodgers (Nolasco) +101 at Blue Jays

Second half record: 14-8 (+725)

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Joe Gavazzi MLB (3-1 last night, 11-2 L3 days, 15-5 MLB since ASB)

Wednesday, July 24th

Pittsburgh (Liriano) at Washington (Strasburg) (-140) 7:05 ET
3% Pittsburgh (Liriano) (+130)

While rumblings have begun about the lack of Pittsburgh offense, the team with major offensive deficiencies is Washington. The Nats are 2-10 recently going 6-78 (a .077 BA) with RISP. In their most recent 0-5 slide, Washington has scored just 11 runs with a .212 BA. Changing the hitting coach won’t alter those woes. That ineptitude is a microcosm of their support for Strasburg. In 15/19 starts, Washington has scored 3 or less runs for their ace. Despite a 1.75 home ERA, the Nats are 4-6 in Strasburg home starts. The Pirates remain upwardly mobile as they hunt down St. Louis. The recent runs are now 18-8 and 3-0. Among numerous surprises for the Pirates this year has been the work of a reborn Liriano. He is 9-4 with a 2.44 ERA. At a bargain underdog price, we look to play the better team once again.


Philadelphia (Lannon) at St. Louis (Westbrook) (-165, -1 ½ runs +135) 8:15 ET
4% St. Louis (Westbrook) (-165, -1 ½ runs +135)

Following a 9-3 run, the Philadelphia bats have gone cold. In losing 3 straight games, the Phillies have scored 5 runs and gone 1-19 with RISP. A review of recent Lannon performances show that he has twirled to a 0.56 ERA in his L2 starts. A closer inspection shows that each of those were home starts against CWS and Wash, 2 of the weakest offenses in MLB. A better indicator of his performance tonight is that in 4 road starts Lannon has a 5.49 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. That should present a major problem against the St. Louis offense with a .289 BA in their recent 10-3 uptick. Few losing teams have had success against Westbrook this season. A 2.88 ERA YTD and 2.66 ERA L3 reinforce that statement. But nowhere has he been stronger than from this mound where in 5 Westbrook home starts St. Louis has gone 4-1 with Westbrook posting a 0.76 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and .198 OBA. Run line players take note: 47/60 St. Louis wins, including 24/30 home wins have been by 2 or more runs. Consider part of your wager on the run line.


Chicago Cubs (Samardzija) at Arizona (Kennedy) (-135) 9:40 ET
4% Chicago Cubs (Samardzija) (+135)

Arizona is now the hunter in the Division race with LAD. But that is not enough to get us to their side in this pitching matchup. Kennedy is far from the pitcher who went 21-4 in 2011. In fact this season, he is 3-7 with a 5.29 ERA. This includes a 5.36 ERA from this mound with a 1.58 WHIP. Arizona has won just 1 of his last 8 starts and in his last 3 outings, Kennedy has gone 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA. In 7 starts against the Cubs, Kennedy has a 6.65 ERA. All clearly Play Against numbers. A surprising fact to some is that the Cubs have been a winning team in the last 50 games posting a 26-24 mark. They are also recently 9-2/loss. Samardzija has been in a funk until prior to his previous start when he made necessary mechanical adjustments to his alignment. In his return to form start, Samardzija allowed just 1 run in 7 1/3 IP at Colorado. In 10 road starts, Samardzija has a 2.56 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. That includes a 1.40 ERA in his last 5 road starts resulting in 4 consecutive Chicago wins in those road starts. Make the Cubs your Dog of the Day!


Cleveland (Kazmir) (-110) at Seattle (Saunders) 3:40 ET
3% Seattle (Saunders) EVEN

This is a battle between a pair of veteran pitchers who are each pitching well. Kazmir has a 1.95 ERA his last 6 and 1.50 ERA in his last 3 road starts. Saunders has gone 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a 1.73 ERA and has allowed 3 or less earned runs in 9/10 games. The difference is the home/road dichotomy presented by these starters and current form of each of these teams. Cleveland has gone just 2-7 in Kazmir road starts where he has a 4.66 ERA. Saunders continues his fine work from this mound with a 3.11 ERA. From a team perspective following a 15-5 surge, the streaky Tribe has gone 7-10 and 1-4 recently. Seattle, however, has won their last 8 games averaging 6.3 RPG with a 2.09 ERA for their starters.



LA Dodgers (Nolasco) at Toronto (Rogers) (-110) 7:05 ET

4% LA Dodgers (Nolasco) (EVEN)

No way we are jumping off the meal ticket that has been the LA Dodgers for us in recent days. They could have easily exhaled after taking the Division lead from Arizona then trailing in the late innings Tuesday night. But they fought back for a 10-9 victory meaning they scored 24 runs the last 2 night in this ballpark. That also pushes their recent run to 22-5 with 9 straight road wins. In 3 starts for LAD, Nolasco has a 3.12 ERA. For the season in 11 road starts, Nolasco has a 3.01 ERA. The loss last night drops Toronto to 7-18 and 0-6. Rogers has been a decent replacement starter with a 3.62 ERA in 9 starts but that includes a 5.90 ERA from this mound while in 3 starts vs. LAD, he has a 6.23 ERA.

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Poor field conditions could give under value in Gold Cup semis

Poor turf conditions in Dallas could give under bettors an edge in Wednesday’s CONCACAF Gold Cup semifinal action.

FoxSports.com reported on the terrible surface inside Cowboys Stadium, where natural grass sods were laid over the existing artificial field turf. According to Leander Schaerlaeckens, the field “looks in dreadful shape long before it’s even been played on”. Teams could have a tough time moving the ball on the poor surface with noticeable seams and bumps all over the field.

Oddsmakers have set the over/under for both semifinal matchups at 2.5 goals, with the under priced at +100 for the United State’s contest with Honduras and at -188 for Panama’s match versus Mexico.

Schaerlaeckens writes:

“Frankly, it looks like it was poorly laid, using a poor stock of grass. It is patchy, with long gashes between strips of it that don’t touch or line up. Green sand was being used to fill those holes, but that could do little to make the surface any softer. Walking over it even as a reporter in sneakers, the ground beneath you was noticeably hard and unforgiving.”

Books have the U.S. set as a -300 favorite versus Honduras (+900) with a draw at +375. Mexico is an EVEN money favorite against Panama (+275) with the draw paying +240.

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Sports Cash System

free pick:

Pittsburgh Pirates +125 over the Washington Nationals (MLB Baseball)

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SB Professor MLB Picks

920. Seattle Mariners -102

902. Washington Nationals -138

904. New York Mets +118

912. Arizona Diamondbacks -133

914. San Francisco Giants

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Razor Ray Monohan

Rockies vs Marlins under 9.5

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Hollywood Sports

25* Chicago White Sox

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Matt Fargo

9* Philadelphia