7-25-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee won on Wednesday with the Brewers -$155/Padres.

For Thursday "Mr Chalk" likes two the Nationals -$135/Pirates and the Dodgers -$130/Reds for $50.

"Mr Chalk" is 65-35 +$1407 for the 2013 MLB Season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapping Kings

PJ

ATP
Ryan Harrison -120 Igor Sijsling (2pm)

JIMMY

MLB
Atlanta -115 NYM (12pm)
Philly/St Louis - under 8-120 (715pm)

MARC

WNBA
New York Liberty /San Antonio Silver Stars
under 148 (1230pm)

MLB
New York Yankees /Texas Rangers
under 8.5 -120 (2pm)

Miami Marlins /Colorado Rockies
under 10 -115 (3pm)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KYLE HUNTER

MLB	Jul 25 '13 12:35p	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals Take: Total 7½ un-120		in 4h
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals are two of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball. The Pirates actually have the single best team ERA in baseball. Washington has a very good rotation, and Gio Gonzalez has been lights out of late. A.J. Burnett has had a couple bad starts here and there, but he has been very good for the Pirates this season. Both of these offenses really struggle to put together a big inning. Look for a pitchers duel as both pitchers pitch deep into the game. Take the under.

MLB	Jul 25 '13 2:05p	New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers Take: Total 8½ un+103		in 6h
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Hiroki Kuroda and Derek Holland will be on the mound for the finale of this series. Holland has struggled in the past against the Yankees but that was a completely different Yankees lineup than he will face Thursday afternoon. Holland pitched a complete game shutout a few weeks ago against this Yankees lineup. Kuroda has an ERA of less than 3 against the Rangers. Vick Carapazza is the home plate umpire here, and he has a very large strike zone which will help both pitchers. The under is 5-0 in Holland's last 5 home starts. The under is 8-1-2 in the Rangers' last 11 overall. The under is 7-0 in Kuroda's last 7 as an underdog. The under is 14-2-1 in the Yankees last 17 road games versus a left handed starter. Take the under.

MLB	Jul 25 '13 3:10p	Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies Take: Total 10 un+109		in 7h
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The oddsmakers continue to put high totals on this series so I'll take this last opportunity to take advantage of a line that is set too high. Miami didn't score a run for 37 straight innings, and even at Coors Field, the Marlins offense hasn't been productive at all. Nathan Eovaldi has pitched very well in his two previous starts at Coors Field. With this being get away day, the Rockies may as well sit one or two of their best players. The under is 8-0 in the Marlins last 8 games. The under is 7-0 in the Marlins last 7 road games. The under is 6-0 in the Marlins last 6 against a right handed starter. Take the under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

10* Blue Jays over

10* Athletics

[Can'tPickAWinner]

betting line moves

indy und 145.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KYLE HUNTER

12:35p Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO*
Take: Total 7½ un-120

2:05p New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special*
Take: Total 8½ un+103

3:10p Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies
*4 Star MLB Play of Day*
Take: Total 10 un+109

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

5* (MLB) Baltimore Orioles ML -125

3* (MLB) St Louis Cardinals ML -168
3* (MLB) Chicago Cubs ML +160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers
Today's Free Picks for Jul 25, 2013





Atlanta @ N.Y. METS
N.Y. METS +115 over Atlanta

12:10 PM EST. This is a battle between two rookie pitchers. Zack Wheeler has started just six games for the Mets since being called up on June 18 to face these same Braves. He won that that game and became just the third starting pitcher in franchise history to earn a win in his big league debut and first since Masato Yoshii in 1998. For whatever reason, the Mets bats come alive when Wheeler starts. They’ve won four of his six starts and have scored five runs or more in all four of those games. The Mets have won Wheelers last three starts while outscoring the opposition 24-11. Wheeler was ranked as the Mets top prospect before the season began. He throws two plus pitches: a 93-95 mph fastball (tops out 98) with good late movement and a tight slider. He’s a pooch here because he’s facing the higher ranked Braves and his numbers in his six starts have not been great with 18 walks, 26 K’s and an ERA of 3.58 in 33 frames. However, Wheeler has pure raw stuff and he’s only going to get better as he continues to learn.
Alex Wood was ranked the seventh best prospect in the Braves system (not in the majors) prior to the season starting. Wood has appeared in 16 games for the Braves this season but only one of those was a start and wouldn’t you know it, that lone start came against these same Mets on June 18. Wood lasted just three innings against New York in that start after allowing just two hits and one run but he walked three batters, threw 73 pitches and struck out five. His longest outing this season is 3.2 innings so it would be unreasonable to expect him to go past five frames here. Wood, a second round pick (88th overall) in the 2012 draft, has risen quickly through the system, dominating at AA-Mississippi before getting the call-up in late May. Wood is a lefty that brings a three pitch arsenal to the mound, featuring a plus fastball that sits 90-94 up to 96, a solid, average change-up, and a below average slider. His unorthodox delivery creates a lot of deception, allowing him to give up lots of weak contact but makes his mechanics inconsistent at times, causing his command and control to suffer. Scouts have two concerns with Wood: his breaking ball and mechanics. He struggles to throw his below-average slider for strikes and may need a better third pitch in order to remain a starter. He also employs a high-effort delivery in which he hops backward on his right leg after landing on it, though he does throw strikes. This is really an emergency start for Wood. He’s only pitched a total of 9 innings over the past 31 days and starting is a completely different animal than coming out of the pen to face five or six batters. The Mets are 21-14 against southpaws this year, they’ve seen this kids’ act and they offer up some nice value.

Our Pick
N.Y. METS +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)





Tampa Bay @ BOSTON
Tampa Bay +120 over BOSTON

John Lackey is getting plenty of press these days because of an outstanding first half. Lackey is 4th in the AL in ERA and top 10 in WHIP and strikeout to walk ratio (23/100 - BB/K -106.2 IP). Prior to the All-Star break, Lackey had gone six straight starts in which he allowed two runs or fewer. His current year-to-date command and 50% groundball rate both are the best levels of his career. All of this is very nice for Lackey and the Red Sox but it provides us with a great ”sell high” opportunity. Lackey is 34 years old with plenty of miles on his arm. Current Rays have 55 hits in 179 AB’s versus Lackey for a BA of .307. His BB/K rate against Tampa Bay (16/29 BB/K’s) is a fraction of what it is against other clubs. The Rays remain one of the hottest teams in the league and while Yasiel Puig of the Dodgers is getting all the press for being a stud rookie, there is also one in Tampa Bay that is quietly doing some serious damage of his own. Wil Myers is batting .322. He has two hits or more in eight of his past nine games and has five jacks and 21 RBI’s over his past 10 games. This kid has raw talent and has added as much spirit and pop to the Rays line-up as Puig has in L.A.
Jeremy Hellickson is on a roll. He’s 4-0 in his last five starts with an ERA of 2.03. Over that span, covering 33 frames, Hellickson has whiffed 30 batters. Hellickson’s 4.62 ERA, which is due to some disastrous early starts and a low 65% strand rate, continues to keep him undervalued. Unlike Lackey, who has been torched by the Rays, Hellickson has thrived against Boston. In fact, current Red Sox have just 37 hits in 157 AB’s against Hellickson for a BA of .237. David Ortiz, who is out, is 8-22 off Hellickson (.364) and when you take away his bat, these Red Sox are batting a mere .196 off Hellickson. Yeah, we’d say the Rays have a shot here.


Our Pick
Tampa Bay +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)





L.A. Angels @ OAKLAND
L.A. Angels +101 over OAKLAND

You’ll have to excuse us while we crap our pants in awe of the A’s series win over the Astros in Houston. Oakland won two of three games in Houston. On Monday, the A’s scored two in the 7th and one in the 8th to eke out a 4-3 win. They lost on Tuesday and yesterday they scored three in the 8th to win 4-3 again. Had you bet the A’s in the first five innings, you would have gone 0-2-1. Somehow, someway, these imposters from Oakland have found late inning magic almost daily but it cannot last. The A’s are hitting a major-league low .209 in July, where they barely averaged six hits per game. Dan Straily has been in-and-out of the A’s rotation in the first half but he's got the goods to have a strong second half. He has an elite 11.5% swinging strike rate, which suggests that his decent strikeout rate has even more upside. His ERA has been hurt by a low 63% strand rate but his skills with runners on base have been excellent. However, current Angels have 24 hits 82 AB’s versus Straily (.293) and he has a fly-ball bias profile (36%/42% - FB/GB). What we know for sure is that the Angels offense is vastly superior to that of the A’s and that makes L.A. a very live pup.
C.J. Wilson threw 8.1 shutout innings against Oakland in his most recent start and all three of his starts against them this season have been dominant. Wilson has allowed one earned run or less in four straight starts and over that span, he’s allowed just two earned runs in 29 innings. Wilson’s skills have improved every month since the start of the year. He has 118 K’s in 129 frames and has a 1.85 ERA over his last seven starts. Wilson has allowed just one jack over his past eight starts and has thrown seven full innings or more in six of his past eight. C.J. Wilson may just be the hottest pitcher in the majors and the fact that he’s the underdog here against this meek hitting line-up is bordering on absurd.

Our Pick
L.A. Angels +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportswagers CFL
Today's Free Picks for Jul 25, 2013






Edmonton @ MONTREAL
Edmonton +5½ -105 over MONTREAL

Montreal stormed out to a 24-point, first quarter lead against Calgary last week and that outburst has many people trusting that the Als will snap out of it here with a solid 60 minutes of football. We’re not so sure. The Als caught the Stamps napping in the first quarter last week but they were outscored 38-3 the rest of the way en route to an 11-point defeat. The Alouettes defense is allowing more points per game than Edmonton and let’s not forget that the Als have played twice against Winnipeg while Edmonton has played B.C twice, Saskatchewan and Hamilton. Big contrast there is terms of strength of opposition and it’s not in Montreal’s favor. The Als have proven nothing so far to trust in this price range and remain a huge risk when spotting points.
Edmonton is closer than Montreal in terms of being a relevant football team. Mike Reilly is far better than his numbers have shown. This kid is on the verge of a big game and this could be the week he puts it all together. Reilly gets to face a Montreal defense that is not only scrambling but that has had limited practice time this week because of the schedule that has the Als on a short week.
Edmonton is also on a short week, however, its defense is rock solid and they figure to step up the pressure here against the rather immobile Anthony Calvillo. Edmonton is coming off back-to-back losses to the Lions but B.C. has not lost at home since early last season and the Eskies didn’t look a bit out of place in B.C. last week. Edmonton did a lot of good things in that game, eventually losing by 10 but they were in it the entire way up until very late in the fourth quarter. The Als have been outscored 42-2 in the third quarter of games this year, suggesting that the half time adjustments made by the opposition is killing the Als. Edmonton went on the road in Week 2 and destroyed the Tiger-Cats and played two decent games against B.C., one in the pouring rain. Montreal hasn’t come close to blowing out anyone. In fact, the Als have had the bounces go their way in terms of turnovers and penalties to the opposition, yet they’re 1-3 and have not been able to take advantage of anything. Edmonton is simply the better team here receiving points. We’re calling the upset.

Our Pick
Edmonton +5½ -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cleveland Insider

MLB
16* Nationals (-142) 2272/1600
4* Astros/Blue Jays under 9.5 480/400
2.5* Phillies +1.5 (-135) 338/250
2* Pirates/Nationals over 7 220/200
2* Blue Jays (-210) 420/200
2* Phillies/Cardinals under 7.5 210/200
1* White Sox +1.5 (-135) 135/100

WNBA
2* Liberty/Silver Stars under 147 210/200

CFL
1* Montreal ML (-210) 210/100
1* Edmonton/Montreal under 48.5 110/100

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Todays Best Bets

(4 UNITS) NYY/Tex - UNDER 8.5
Betting $400 to win $420

(5 UNITS) Tigers
Betting $650 to win $500

(5 UNITS) T.B./Bos - UNDER 9
Betting $500 to win $525

(4 UNITS) Dodgers
Betting $500 to win $400

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ANDRE GOMES

WNBA - 651 Indiana Fever @ 652 Tulsa Shock
Projected Line: 148 points
I believe that we have in here a good matchup that will favor both offenses. These two teams are now playing better offense right now than they were earlier on the season. Tulsa is finally showing some decent chemistry between their great frontcourt of Glory Johnson and Liz Cambage, something that has been allowing them to dominate their opponents lately! The Shock are coming from a game against Atlanta where they scored 56 points in the paint, with Johnson and Cambage combining 17-24 FG, 47 points and 25 rebounds! For today's game, they will face one of the most undersized teams in the league and so, they should pound Indiana down low in here.
However, Indiana will also have some key edges on offense today. First of all, their defense is so aggressive that they lead the league in turnovers forced. Tulsa is a turnover-prone team (16.0% TO/rate), so the Fever should have an edge in here. Indiana is basically a jump shooting team that will have a good mismatch in here with Tamika Catchings playing at the PF position and as good as Tulsa's frontcourt is, they are slow and they struggle in defending quick players. So, it wasn't a surprise that on the first game between these two teams this season, a shorthanded Indiana team still scored 80 points, with Tamika dominating with 9-18 FG, 9-9 FT, 28 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 6 steals! I expect a relatively good offensive game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 651/652 Over 144,5 @ -110

WNBA - 653 New York Liberty @ 654 San Antonio Silver Stars
Projected Line: 144 points
This is a bad spot for the Liberty with just 1 day of rest and then a travel between Indiana and San Antonio to play an early game today. Both teams have been struggling on offense lately. The Liberty is coming from a huge win at Indiana, where they had a great second half. The key for this game was Cappie Pondexter, who had an incredible game with 8-16 FG, 5-5 FT, 24 points and 4 assists. The problem for today's game is that Pondexter played 38 minutes in that game and so, she's likely to be still tired today. New York doesn't have a post game who can pound San Antonio's poor and undersized interior defense, so Cappie will need to carry the team's offense on her own again and this should be problematic for the Liberty.

On the other side, if the Silver Stars were already shorthanded, they are even worse now without Milton-Jones. San Antonio's offensive threats are in the backcourt on the guards Adams and Perkins, two one-dimensional players, who will make the Liberty have a similar defensive approach on this game. This will be a jump shooting game and with the Liberty being #4 in the league on 3pts defense with 31% 3pts allowed and San Antonio #6 with 31.9% 3pts, I expect this game to be a poor low-scoring affair and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 653/654 Under 147,5 @ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

CINCINNATI REDS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: San Diego at Milwaukee (2:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Milwaukee -130 (moneyline) at Diamond

The San Diego Padres made a nice run in the NL West when they went on a 16-8 tear. The problem is that they have been just 7-21 since then. Outside of the 16-8 run, this team stands in at just 29-49 in all other games. There have been a lot of inquiries made as to the availability of Yovani Gallardo, but the Brewers insist he is unavailable. Gallardo is 68-46 over the last five seasons. Edinson Volquez has been a huge disappointment with a 7-8 record and an ERA not far from 6. He has not had success when facing the Brew Crew where his 11 career starts show an ERA of 5.05. San Diego is just 3-12 in their last 15 road games. Milwaukee owns a crisp 48-18 mark in Gallardo's last 66 starts as a home favorite. Milwaukee is also 5-1 in Gallardo's last six starts against the Padres. Play this one on Milwaukee.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INTPICKS
Thursday, July 25, 2013

All 1 unit

MLB

2:05 PM ET

NY Yankees @ Texas

Take NY Yankees Money Line +140

10:10 PM ET

Cincinnati @ LA Dodgers

Take LA Dodgers Money Line -125