7-31-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WGC-Bridgestone Invitational: Golf betting preview and picks
By MATT FARGO

The PGA Tour is doing double duty this week, the second time this season that a regular tour event and a WGC event are taking place the same week.

This week, the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational takes center stage with all but two players in the Top 50 in the OWGR competing from the Firestone Country Club South Course in Akron, Ohio. The Reno-Tahoe has to deal with that along with preceding the PGA Championship.

We focus on the Bridgestone for betting purposes as we have a field that has not been seen on many occasions this season because of its strength. In total, 72 players are in the limited field and, as is the normal case in these invitational tournaments, there’s no cut and the winner’s purse is $1.4 million while the minimum payout is $35,000. So there is a lot on the line.

The South Course at Firestone seems almost unfair to amateurs. It’s a Par 70 but measures 7,400 yards making it the longest Par-70 course of all non-majors. Surprisingly, the bombers off the tee don’t have a huge edge. The real way to score is hitting greens in regulation as the greens can be very receptive and can lead to good birdie chances. Firestone South ranked 16th out of 49 courses in difficulty last season.

Tiger Woods (+400) is the overwhelming favorite this week and for good reason. He’s won here seven times throughout his career, although his last victory came in 2009. He’s coming in with plenty of confidence with four wins but a Sunday meltdown at the Open Championship is his most recent action. Still, he’s tough to look past and even at short odds, we will add him as a hedge bet.

Matt Kuchar (+2,000) is coming off another strong finish as he placed T2 in Canada last week. The last time he finished second, which was at Colonial, he came back the very next week at the Memorial and won it. He has won twice this season to go along with five other Top 10s. Firestone is a place he likes, finishing T8, T19 and T9 the last three years.

The limited starts for Steve Stricker (+2,500) have not hurt his performance. He has four Top 10s in seven medal play events. He has finished outside the Top 20 only once and he’s coming off a T10 at the John Deere Classic in his last start. He leads the tour in greens hit, even though it’s unofficial because of his lack of rounds. He followed up a T9 in 2010 and a solo 14th in 2011 with a T2 at Firestone last year.

Henrik Stenson (+3,000) is getting the best odds from the Top 15, in my opinion. He’s playing his best golf of the season with two Top 5s in his last five PGA Tour starts, including a solo second at Muirfield. Prior to that was a T3 at the Scottish Open and his statistics fit the bill at Firestone. He’s first in driving accuracy at 71 percent and second in greens hit, also at 71 percent.

Bubba Watson (+4,000) is getting some solid odds despite having a rather disappointing season. He has three Top 10s with a solo fourth and a T4 being his best finishes, but he has been consistent with only two missed cuts in 15 medal play events. His length could be an advantage based on weather and his recent form at Firestone has been solid with a T19, T21 and T22 the last three years.

For a long shot this week, we turn to Angel Cabrera (+5,000). He was in the hunt at Muirfield until a double bogey on 16 Saturday turned the corner and he went 5-over in his last 21 holes. Still, it was a T11 finish which was his third straight Top 15. His solo second at the Masters is still his best finish of the season and he has had success at Firestone with three Top-5 finishes.

Recommended tournament win six pack at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational (all for one unit)

Tiger Woods (+400)
Matt Kuchar (+2,000)
Steve Stricker (+2,500)
Henrik Stenson (+3,000)
Bubba Watson (+4,000)
Angel Cabrera (+5,000)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

English Premier League goalscorer prop bets

It feels like the Premier League season ended just a couple of weeks ago, but the new campaign gets underway August 17. The transfer window is still open and clubs are still in the middle of some wheeling and dealing trying to get the best XI that they can afford ready for kickoff.

One of the most popular prop bets in the Premier League is Top Goalscorer and with the hitmen that have come into the league (Jovetic and Negredo at Man City, Soldado's potential move to Spurs) and some goalscorers' futures still in the balance (think Wayne Rooney, Gareth Bale and Luis Suarez), the race for the leagues' top marksman has the potential to be an entertaining one.

Here is a look at a few guys worth some consideration (odds courtesy of William Hill):

Favorite

Robin Van Persie, Manchester United (+350)
2012-13: 26 goals

The Dutchman has led the Premier League in scoring the past two seasons with 26 goals last season for United and 30 the season before with Arsenal. It will be interesting to see how the Red Devils adapt to life with new manager David Moyes calling the shots from the touch line. United has not made a splash in the transfer market, failing in its pursuit of ex-Barcelona playmaker Thiago Alcântara, who decided to join the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich.

Outsider

Romelu Lukaku, Chelsea (+2500)
2012-13: 17 goals (on loan with West Brom)

This could be the season that the young Belgian establishes himself as a star. Luakau finished sixth in the league with 17 goals while playing with an overachieving West Brom side. Lukaku could very well be José Mourinho's first-choice striker, with Fernando Torres never really fitting in at Stamford Bridge and Demba Ba only notching a pair of goals in 11 appearances following his move from Newcastle in January. Lukaku is big, strong, physically dominant, and can score with either foot or his head. With the likes of Eden Hazard, Juan Mata, Oscar and Andre Schürrle playing around him capable of making the killer pass, Lukaku could be in for a very, very big season.

Long shot

Michu, Swansea (+6600)
2012-13: 18 goals

Michael Laudrup was appointed Swansea boss after Brendan Rodgers bolted for Liverpool in 2012. Laudrup employs a free flowing, attacking style that caters to the attractive passing style that made him a star player. Michu was the beneficiary of Laudrup's tactics, having notched 18 goals in his first season in the Premier League. The Spaniard made an immediate impact, scoring in bunches, and became a cult hero at the Liberty Stadium. The Swans have re-loaded in the transfer window adding more attacking pieces to the lineup, such as Wilfried Bony and Jonjo Shelvey. The future appears bright for the Welsh club and the goals should come fast and furious for Michu.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Under bettors happy to see Marlins vs. Martinez melee

The Miami Marlins’ terrible 2013 season got even uglier this past weekend when hitting coach Tino Martinez quit after an altercation with players during batting practice.

But it’s not like the Marlins can get any worse at the plate without the former Yankee great tinkering with their swings. Miami is dead last in just about every hitting statistic, including runs per game (3.20), batting average (.232) and home runs (62).

Those stinky stats have led to a 40-64 record heading into Tuesday and have cost Miami backers – if they really exist - -7.28 units on the year. Total bettors, however, are more than happy to see the Marlins offense continue to implode and Martinez walk away.

Miami is 43-54-7 over/under (fourth-best under in NL), most notably 19-30-3 over/under on the road (60.5 percent under). Since Martinez walked, the Marlins are 1-1 over/under, losing 6-5 to the New York Mets and topping the 7-run total Monday.

According to FoxSports Ken Rosenthal, Martinez got in a confrontation after three players refused to pick up balls during batting practice, including second baseman Derek Dietrich, who Martinez said he grabbed by the jersey. Martinez officially resigned Sunday after the press caught wind of the BP dust-up.

“Do you realize I’m out of baseball basically because a couple of players didn't pick up balls in the cage when I asked them to?,” he told FoxSports. “As a coach, when I asked them to pick up the balls, why didn’t they just say, ‘Absolutely, no problem, I’ll do it right now.’ ”

Miami is a -137 home favorite hosting New York Tuesday. The total is set at 7.5 runs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Brewers (Game 1) on Tuesday and likes the Reds on Wednesday.

The deficit is 1333 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Locke is 4-2, 1.90 in his last eight starts. Wainwright is 3-1, 3.20 in his last six starts.
-- Gaudin is 3-0, 3.68 in his four road starts this season.
-- Minor is 2-1, 2.22 in his last four starts. Chatwood is 3-1, 2.28 in his last four outings.
-- Alvarez is 1-0, 0.00 (13 IP) in his last two starts. Mejia blanked Nationals for seven innings in his first '13 start.
-- Peralta is 2-1, 2.45 in his last five starts. Jackson is 3-1, 2.78 in his last five.

-- GGonzalez is 4-0, 2.19 in his last ten starts.
-- Rays won last seven Hellickson starts (6-0, 2.09). Miley is 3-1, 1.87 in his last five starts.
-- Kershaw is 4-1, 1.72 in his last six starts. Kuroda is 3-0, 0.69 in his last four.

-- Colon is 11-1, 1.53 in his last thirteen starts.
-- Kluber is 1-0, 2.42 in his last four starts.
-- MGonzalez is 4-0, 2.60 in his last four home starts.
-- Iwakuma is 3-0, 1.80 in his last three starts.


Cold pitchers
-- Bailey is 0-4, 4.68 in his last four starts. Stults is 0-2, 8.18 in his last two.
-- Kendrick is 2-3, 6.07 in his last five starts.

-- Verlander is 1-3, 6.31 in his last four starts.

-- Dickey is 0-3, 6.48 in his last four starts.
-- Norris is 0-2, 8.47 in his last three starts.
-- Lackey is 1-3, 4.33 in his last four starts.
-- Axelrod is 0-2, 9.64 in his last six.
-- Williams is 0-5, 8.42 in his last seven starts. Perez is 0-2, 9.39 in his last three outings.
-- Guthrie is 3-4, 5.85 in his last eight starts; Correia is 1-3, 6.39 in his last six.


Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Bailey 3-21; Stults 2-22
-- Wainwright 5-22; Locke 3-20 (0 of last 12)
-- Gaudin 2-8; Kendrick 7-21
-- Chatwood 4-14; Minor 7-21
-- Mejia 0-1; Alvarez 1-4
-- Peralta 4-22 (0 of last 9); Jackson 7-21

-- GGonzalez 6-21; Verlander 6-22
-- Miley 6-21; Hellickson 7-21 (0 of last 11)
-- Kuroda 6-21 (1 of last 10); Kershaw 2-22

-- Dickey 6-22 (1 of last 10); Colon 5-21
-- Axelrod 6-18; Kluber 3-17
-- Norris 7-21; MGonzalez 6-18
-- Iwakuma 5-22 (0 of last 6); Lackey 7-18
-- Williams 5-14; Perez 4-8
-- Guthrie 6-21; Correia 6-20

Totals
-- Five of last seven Milwaukee games went over the total; nine of last eleven Cub games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine St Louis games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last ten Colorado road games stayed under.
-- Four of last six San Francisco games stayed under.
-- 12 of last 14 Marlin games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Cincinnati games.

-- Three of last four Washington games stayed under total.
-- Eight of last ten Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Bronx games.

-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Baltimore games.
-- Eight of last eleven Cleveland games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Texas games.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Kansas City games.
-- Six of last nine Toronto games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Brewers won four of their last five games.
-- Pirates won six of their last seven home games.
-- Braves won five of their last six games.
-- San Diego won seven of its last nine games.

-- Detroit won eight of its last nine games. Nationals won four of their last six.
-- Tampa Bay won 23 of its last 27 games.
-- Dodgers won 27 of their last 33 games.

-- Boston won 14 of its last 20 games at Fenway Park.
-- Indians won their last six games, scoring 38 runs.
-- Kansas City won its last seven games, allowing 12 runs.
-- Rangers won three of their last four home games.
-- A's won 13 of their last 18 home games.


Cold teams
-- Cubs lost their last three games, scoring seven runs.
-- Cardinals lost their last six games, scoring six runs.
-- Rockies lost three of their last four games.
-- Phillies/Giants both lost eight of their last nine games.
--
Miami lost three of its last four games. Mets lost three of their last five.
-- Reds lost their last five games, scoring five runs total.

-- Arizona lost 13 of its last 17 road games.
-- Bronx lost nine of its last thirteen games.


-- Mariners lost three of their last four games.
-- Astros lost 14 of their last 17 games; Baltimore lost five of last seven.
-- White Sox lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Minnesota lost four of its last six games.
-- Angels lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Blue Jays lost four of their last six road games.

Umpires
-- Cin-SD-- Five of last six Davis games stayed under the total.
-- StL-Pitt-- Underdogs won 10 oif last 15 Fairchild games.
-- SF-Phil-- Five of last six Bellino games stayed under the total.
-- Col-Atl-- Five of last seven Foster games stayed under total.
-- NY-Mia-- Four of six Hamari games went over the total.
-- Mil-Chi-- Last five Estabrook games stayed under the total.

-- Wsh-Det-- Last six Gorman games stayed under the total.
-- Az-TB-- Favorites won last four Hallion games.
-- NY-LA-- Last four Bucknor games went over the total.

-- Tor-A's-- Eight of last ten LBarrett games stayed under total.
-- Chi-Cle-- Over is 11-6-2 in last eighteen Reyburn games.
-- Hst-Balt-- Four of last five Barksdale games stayed under.
-- Sea-Bos-- Last nine Darling games stayed under the total.
-- LA-Tex-- Last five Layne games went over the total.
-- KC-Min-- Under is 6-2-2 in last ten Nauert games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Cincinnati at San Diego

The Padres look to build on their 13-3 record in Eric Stults' last 16 home starts. San Diego is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 31 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at San Diego (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.619; San Diego (Stults) 16.649 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115); Over

Game 953-954 St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.286; Pittsburgh (Locke) 14.503 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Under

Game 955-956: San Francisco at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Gaudin) 14.815; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 13.887 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-105); Over

Game 957-958: Colorado at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chatwood) 14.177; Atlanta (Minor) 16.640 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-160); Under

Game 959-960: NY Mets at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Mejia) 15.698; Miami (Alvarez) 14.579 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Miami (-110); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Under

Game 961-962: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 13.575; Cubs (Jackson) 14.934 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-125); N/A

Game 963-964: Toronto at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 14.936; Oakland (Colon) 16.471 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-160); Under

Game 965-966: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Axelrod) 15.751; Cleveland (Kluber) 15.127 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-170); 8 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+150); Over

Game 967-968: Houston at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Bedard) 13.744; Baltimore (Gonzalez) 15.150 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-240); 9 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-240); Over

Game 969-970: Seattle at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 16.111; Boston (Lackey) 15.157 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+130); Under

Game 971-972: LA Angels at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Williams) 13.896; Texas (Perez) 15.497 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Over

Game 973-974: Kansas City at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.462; Minnesota (Correia) 15.165 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Minnesota (-110); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Under

Game 975-976: Washington at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 16.621; Detroit (Verlander) 15.700 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125); Under

Game 977-978: Arizona at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 14.199; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 16.118 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 9 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-170); 8 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-170); Over

Game 979-980: NY Yankees at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 14.925; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.906 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 5 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-185); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

New York at Washington

The Liberty look to build on their 4-1-1 ATS record in their last 6 road games. New York is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mystics favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: New York (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 31 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: New York at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 106.609; Washington 110.690 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 4; 142 Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 6 1/2; 147 Dunkel Pick: New York (+6 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Philadelphia Phillies -113 over San Francisco Giants
(System Record: 56-6, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 56-61-1

Soccer Crusher
Atletico MG + Paranaense OVER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 434-15, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 434-371-57

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Nationals +145
Cardinals -125
Cubs -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1072-802 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner WED Cinci -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Wednesday

Rockies/Braves over 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Wiz

Free Play Wednesday Houston/Baltimore Under 9 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bookiemonsters

121-78 run

29-21 run last 50 plays

pod rockies game under 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vic Monte Sports

Private Play Game of the Year #5 RED SOX