7-31-13

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Teddy Covers

10* Padres

10* Royals

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Vincent Rizzo Sports

MLB PREMIUM PLAY

NY YANKS / LA DODGERS - UNDER 6 (1.20U)

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Bob Balfe

BOSTON RED SOX -150
(Lackey/Iwakuma)

I never am thrilled when we take a favorite around this price, but I just can't see Seattle beating Boston tonight. Lackey is the better pitcher and Seattle has trouble scoring on the road. All it takes is that one crooked run inning for the Red Sox and its all over. This team just made a major trade and the buzz around Boston is starting to get stronger as they are in a tight playoff race. They need wins in these spots. Take the Red Sox.

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Paul Leiner

100* Phillies -120

50* Cubs -125

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Wednesday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Wednesday's American League games:

Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland A's (-147, 7.5)

Pitching stat: Toronto RHP R.A. Dickey is tied for second in the major leagues with 24 home runs allowed.

Batting stat: The Athletics added 2B Alberto Callaspo from the Angels. Callaspo batted .252 with five home runs and 36 RBIs in 86 games with the Angels.

Weather: Temperatures in the low 60s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing WSW at 8 mph.

Key betting stat: Blue Jays are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. American League West.

Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles (-219, 9)

Pitching stat: Baltimore LHP Erik Bedard is posting a 1-6 record with a 5.79 ERA and a .296 batting average against on the road.

Batting stat: Baltimore SS J.J. Hardy is showing signs of breaking out of his slump. After going 3-for-22 in his previous six games, Hardy had a two-run single on Tuesday.

Weather: Temperatures in the low 50s with a 27 percent chance of rain. Winds blowing south at 7 mph.

Key betting stat: Astros are 1-9 in the last 10 meetings with Orioles.

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-162, 8)

Pitching stat: Chicago RHP Dylan Axelrod has a 4.08 ERA in 17 2-3 career innings against Cleveland.

Batting stat: Cleveland C Yan Gomes is 9-for-22 with seven RBIs in six games against the White Sox this season.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with a 61 percent chance of thundershowers. Winds will blow NE at 2 mph.

Key betting stat: Indians are 6-0 in their last six during Game 3 of a series.

Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox (-146, 8.5)

Pitching stat: Boston RHP John Lackey saw plenty of the Mariners from his days with the AL West-rival Los Angeles Angels, compiling a 15-10 mark and 3.60 ERA in 30 career starts.

Batting stat: Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia homered and had three RBIs Tuesday, ending an 0-for-16 skid with his first extra-base hit since the All-Star break.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing SE at 7 mph.

Key betting stat: Under is 8-0-1 in umpire Gary Darling's last nine games behind home plate.

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (-139, 10)

Pitching stat: Los Angeles RHP Jerome Williams is 0-5 in his last eight outings after yielding four runs in five innings against the Athletics Friday.

Batting stat: Los Angeles OF Josh Hamilton is is 4-for-9 with six RBIs in this series against his former club.

Weather: Temperatures in the high 90s with a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing south at 2 mph.

Key betting stat: Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Texas.

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (-103, 8.5)

Pitching stat: Royals RHP Jeremy Guthrie is 3-4 over his last eight outings, allowing five or more runs five times in that span.

Batting stat: Kansas City is 9-2 since the All-Star break, hitting .253 and scoring 3.72 runs per game.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with partly cloudy skies and a 21 percent chance of rain. Winds blowing WNW at 9 mph.

Key betting stat: Royals are 23-9 in Guthrie's last 32 starts.

Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers (-135, 7.5)

Pitching stat: Detroit RHP Justin Verlander has yielded four or more runs in five of his last eight outings.

Batting stat: The Tigers could be without third baseman Miguel Cabrera, who left Tuesday's contest after seven innings as he apparently aggravated the hip injury that sidelined him for four games last week.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid 60s with a 67 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds blowing SSE at 4 mph.

Key betting stat: Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays (-173, 8)

Pitching stat: Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson is 8-1 with a 3.17 ERA in 10 starts since June 1, allowing only four homers while striking out 50 against 12 walks over 59 2-3 innings.

Batting stat: Diamondbacks 2B Aaron Hill, who had two hits Tuesday, is 19-for-44 in his last 12 interleague games.

Weather: N/A

Key betting stat: Rays are 23-7 in their last 30 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.

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Wednesday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Wednesday's National League games:

Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres (+113, 7)

Pitching stat: Reds RHP Homer Bailey is 4-0 in seven career starts against the Padres despite allowing nine homers in 44 innings.

Batting stat: Reds 3B Todd Frazier went 0-for-4 on Tuesday and is hitless in 16 at-bats over the last five games.

Weather: Temperatures in low 70s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing west at 5 mph.

Key betting stat: Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in San Diego.

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (+108, 7)

Pitching stat: The Cardinals have lost a season-worst six straight games and have been outscored 28-6 during the stretch.

Batting stat: Pirates CF Andrew McCutchen is 9-for-21 with three doubles and a triple against Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright.

Weather: Temperatures in low 70s with a 34 percent chance of rain. Winds blowing SSE at 3 mph.

Key betting stat: Pirates are 3-18 in their last 21 games with umpire Chad Fairchild behind home plate.

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (-119, 8.5)

Pitching stat: Philadelphia RHP Kyle Kendrick is 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA in six career games (three starts) against the Giants.

Batting stat: The Giants have been outhomered 10-1 over their last 11 games.

Weather: Temperatures in the high 70s with partly cloudy skies and a 14 percent chance of rain. Winds blowing south at 6 mph.

Key betting stat: Over is 20-8-1 in Kendrick's last 29 starts vs. National League West.

Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves (-172, 7.5)

Pitching stat: Atlanta LHP Mike Minor has allowed six earned runs in his last four starts.

Batting stat: Braves 3B Chris Johnson went 2-for-4 on Tuesday to increase his NL-best batting average to .341.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with a 90 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds blowing SSW at 6 mph.

Key betting stat: Rockies are 7-28 in the last 35 meetings in Atlanta.

New York Mets at Miami Marlins (-108, 7)

Pitching stat: Miami's starting pitchers have allowed three or fewer runs in 32 of the past 37 games.

Batting stat: The Marlins have managed 10 hits in the past two games, after interim hitting coach John Pierson took over for Tino Martinez, who quit after an altercation with players.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid 80s with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds blowing east at 10 mph.

Key betting stat: Under is 12-2 in Marlins' last 14 overall.

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (-125, 8)

Pitching stat: The Cubs have 22 blown saves - including both games Tuesday - and have lost nine games when leading or tied entering the ninth inning.

Batting stat: Milwaukee is 38-0 when leading after eight innings and is the only team in the majors that has not lost after taking a lead to the ninth.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with a 29 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds blowing NNE at 3 mph.

Key betting stat: Over is 27-13-2 in the last 42 meetings in Chicago.

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers (-181, 6)

Pitching stat: Yankees RHP Hiroki Kuroda has not allowed a run in three of his last four starts spanning 26 innings and has not permitted a home run in that stretch after coughing up five in back-to-back starts.

Batting stat: The Dodgers are riding a streak of eight straight one-run victories, including back-to-back walk-off wins.

Weather: Temperatures in the high 60s with clear skies and winds blowing SSW at 5 mph.

Key betting stat: Yankees are 6-13 in their last 19 games as road underdogs.

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Peavy deal doesn't budge Red Sox World Series odds

The Boston Red Sox added veteran pitcher Jake Peavy from the Chicago White Sox Tuesday, boosting their starting rotation for the home stretch of the MLB season.

The Red Sox, who currently sit second in the American League East at 64-44 (+12.76 units) entered week priced at +475 to win the AL Pennant and +1,000 to win the World Series. Despite adding Peavy, who was 8-4 with a 4.28 ERA with the White Sox, Boston’s futures will remain steady, according to Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas.

Peavy was acquired in a three-team, seven-player deal with the Red Sox, White Sox and Detroit Tigers. Boston sent infielder Jose Iglesias to Detroit and Chicago picked up promising outfielder Avisail Garcia along with three other prospects. The Red Sox also added minor league reliever Brayan Villarreal.

Boston is a -146 home favorite hosting the Seattle Mariners Wednesday.

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Dr. Ed Meyer

Triple Dime UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE YEAR!!

NY Yankees +170 over LA DODGERS – The Dodgers have revenge vs Hiroki Kuroda for a 6-4 loss in New York on June 19th. However, the Dodgers are an unbelievable 0-8 as a 120-plus home favorite when they are seeking same season revenge for a loss vs their opponent’s starting pitcher, when that starter went more than five innings against them. The SDQL text is:

team=Dodgers and H and line<=-120 and oS:W and oS:season=season and oS:SIP>5 and date>=20120730

The Dodgers NEVER LED in any of the eight games and they were a 170-plus favorite in FIVE of the eight games. Wow.

Clayton Kershaw is off a great performance; eight innings of work in a 2-1 win. This, however, is no reason to play on the Dodgers, as they are 0-7 at HOME WITH KERSHAW when he is off a start in which he faced 28-plus hitters and struck out fewer than ten, as long as he was not a 200-plus favorite in that start. See for yourself by running this SDQL text:

starter=Clayton Kershaw and H and s:SSO<10 and s:SHF>=28 and date>=20120820 and p:line>-200

Yesterday, the Yankees lost 3-2 in the series opener, managing only five hits without drawing a single walk. NY has a long history of success in this spot. The Yanks are 16-0 as a DOG when they are off a loss in which they had ten or fewer hits and drew one or fewer walks. That’s SIXTEEN straight wins as a dog. The SDQL text is:

team=Yankees and D and p:walks<=1 and p:L and p:hits<=10 and date>=20080901

In addition, THIS SEASON, the Yankees are 8-0 as a dog of more than 100 when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they never led and had six or fewer hits. Check it out with this SDQL text:

team=Yankees and line>100 and p:hits<=6 and p:BL=0 and season=2013

In the game listing, you can see Kuroda’s two starts in this spot. The Yankees beat the Red Sox 5-2 in Boston at plus-140 and beat the Rangers 2-0 at plus-140.

The reason that this game is so strong is not that the Yankees have an overwhelming chance of winning. In fact, we make them somewhere between 50-55% to win. The reason that the game is so strong is that we are getting plus 170 on slightly better than a coin toss. If Kershaw beats us 2-1, we tip our hat to him. The side on which to be is the Yankees.

MTi’s FORECAST: NY Yankees 5 LA DODGERS 2

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J.R Stevens/SMOOTH44

ALL ARE TOP-RATED (5-STAR OR 5-UNIT)

(951) CINCINNATI -125/RL -1.5 +135

(975) WASHINGTON +125/RRL -1.5 +200

*Play side and runline/reverse runline equally
"RRL" means "Reverse Runline" or "Alternate Runline

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INDIAN COWBOY

WNBA

4* Under 146.5 - New York vs. Washington (7:05pm)

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Ben Burns

**EARLY** MLB Run-Line Annihilator!
Padres +1.5

*10* MLB Personal Favorite!
Cubs ML

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Joe Gavazzi

Kansas City (Guthrie) (-105) at Minnesota (Correia) 8:10 ET
Kansas City (Guthrie) (-105)

The Royals blasted through the .500 barrier recording their 7th straight victory with the 7-2 defeat of the Twins on Tuesday. Guthrie has been a streaky pitcher who returned to form in his previous outing allowing just 1 run in 6 IP of a 7-1 victory vs. Baltimore. He will pitch today with confidence knowing that in 3 outings this year vs. the Twins, he has a 3.32 ERA. Correia is at the other end of the spectrum. His downturn began with an outing against these Royals in which he allowed 5 runs in 5 IP of a 9-8 loss. Including that game, the Twins have gone 1-5 in his starts over which time he has allowed 20 runs in 24 IP with a 15/13 KBB. In his most recent outing, Correia allowed 6 runs in just 1 2/3 IP of an 8-2 loss to Seattle.

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Ocal Sports

(3) A's -159

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Danny B

Reds
Cards

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SportsWagers MLB
Today's Free Picks for Jul 31, 2013





Kansas City @ MINNESOTA
Kansas City -107 over MINNESOTA

Here come the Royals. K.C. has won seven straight and they are now just five games back in the Wild Card race with a long way to go. Over the Royals seven-game winning streak they defeated Chris Sale, swept the Orioles and took the opener of this series last night, 7-2. They now get their easiest assignment of them all when facing Kevin Correia. How desperate are the Twins for starting pitching? They inked this stiff to a two-year deal worth 10M. Correia has walked 13 batters and struck out 15 over his past 24 innings. Over his last five starts he has a 1.88 WHIP, an xERA of 5.85 and a 26% line-drive rate. This year, Correia has a BAA of .296. He didn’t make it out of the second inning in his last start, which should come as no surprise, as 50% of his starts this year have been disasters. He now faces one of the hottest teams in the league.
Jeremy Guthrie is the picture of consistent mediocrity but a trade back to the AL served him well. With KC: 3.16 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. Guthrie is 10-7 this season with a 4.27 ERA and while he won't turn into a new pitcher at age 34, he remains a far better option at a short price than Kevin Correia does at any price. With a 93-mph fastball and four other pitches he uses at any time he's in position here to extend the Royals winning streak to eight. Value doesn’t always come in playing the dog. That applies here.

Our Pick
Kansas City -107 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)





Washington @ DETROIT
Washington +120 over DETROIT

1:00 PM EST. It’s different to see Justin Verlander as a risky favorite but the numbers don’t lie. Verlander’s recent string of performances has raised questions about what is wrong with the long-time ace. Over his last seven starts, he has just 31 K in 50.2 IP, while walking 23. Two of those seven starts came against the White Sox in which Verlander surrendered 23 hits in 13 innings against the AL’s lowest scoring team. Overall, Verlander has an unacceptable 1.41 WHIP, a decreasing groundball rate that has gone from 41% in April and May to 36% in June and July. At 220+ IP for four straight years and 137 already this year, the signs suggest Verlander might be in trouble with a “dead arm”. Verlander’s ERA over his last five starts is 4.68 and his xERA is 5.08. He may look appealing spotting a cheap price at home by his standards but the warning signs are loud and clear.
To say that Gio Gonzalez has come on strong after a slow start is an understatement. Since June 1, nine of his 10 starts have been pure quality. His skills for each month have gotten progressively better. Gonzalez’s 16% line-drive rate is the lowest among NL starters that have pitched 50 innings or more. Gonzalez also has an elite 53% groundball rate, 136 K’s in 130 innings and a solid 1.19 WHIP. He rarely loses on his own, as his three losses in 21 starts this season attest to. Gonzalez is among the elite. His 16% line-drive rate and all his other skills is a testament to how difficult it is for opponents to square up his stuff. Expect nothing less here.

Our Pick
Washington +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)





Toronto @ OAKLAND
Toronto +139 over OAKLAND

3:35 PM EST. Over his last three road starts, R.A. Dickey has faced Cleveland, Texas and Tampa Bay. He allowed 14 hits and three earned runs over 20.2 innings in those starts and that’s against three very good hitting clubs. Once again, this isn’t the Rogers Center, where Dickey can’t keep the ball in the yard. This is perhaps the best pitcher’s park in the AL and Dickey has a great chance to thrive here.
The Blue Jays can hit. They have several players in their line-up that are swinging a hot bat at the moment and they scored four times in the opener of this series and five times last night. Over the past 30 games, Toronto is a top-3 team in several offensive categories that include runs scored, team batting average, HR’s and SLG % to name a few. Now the Blue Jays get their shot at Bartolo Colon. We keep suggesting Colon’s dream season can’t last but so far it has with below average skills that are getting worse. Colon has 16 K’s over his past 35 frames. In his last start against the Angels, his WHIP was 1.50 but he somehow managed to escape jam after jam and ended up allowing two runs over six innings with two walks and two strikeouts. Colon’s 87% strand rate over his last 10 starts is the highest in the majors and it’s not close. The closest one to him is 79%. He relies primarily on his fastball, which doesn’t get above 90 mph these days. The Blue Jays have feasted on fastballs all season long and once again we’ll fade the luckiest pitcher in baseball.

Our Pick
Toronto +139 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.78)





Seattle @ BOSTON
Seattle +138 over BOSTON

One has to figure that the trade the Red Sox made yesterday was in direct reaction to what the Tampa Bay Rays have done over the past two months. Tampa is the team that the Red Sox must go through in order to make the playoffs and/or advance deep should they get there. The Rays just took four of five games from Boston. Tampa throws out young, dominant arms with stuff every night. The Rays are a freight train right now and the Red Sox figured they had to do something with Clay Buchholz’s status becoming more uncertain every day. The Red Sox took a huge risk in trading for Jake Peavy, a guy that is past his prime and has spent 145 days on the DL over the past three years. There’s a big difference pitching for San Diego and the South Side than from pitching in a pressure filled pennant race in Boston. The Red Sox traded away Jose Iglesias, an outstanding glove that is also hitting .330 this year and that is going to be a fixture wherever he plays for the next 10 years or more. We mention this because the Red Sox players (and their fans) might be in a bit of shock today over a trade that has long term consequences that cannot turn out well for Boston. That move doesn’t exactly instill Boston’s faith in John Lackey either. Lackey was on a huge roll recently but over his past two games he has surrendered 19 hits and nine runs over 12.2 innings and one of those starts came against the light-hitting Yankees. Lackey’s ERA went from 2.78 to 3.19 after his last two starts and perhaps the Red Sox see something that is worrisome. Boston has lost three of Lackey’s last four starts.
When you’re a starting pitcher in Seattle, you’re going to find yourself in the shadow of King Felix Hernandez but with a 10-4 record Hisashi Iwakuma is casting some shadows of his own. Iwakuma’s skills keep getting better. Over his last five starts over 29 innings, Iwakuma has a 56% groundball rate, a 13% line-drive rate and 28 K’s with just five walks issued. Iwakuma’s dominance can be seen in his 72%/5% dominant start/disaster start split over 22 starts. Overall, Iwakuma has a 0.95 WHIP, a 2.87 ERA and 129 K’s in 144 frames. While he’ll never challenge the King for the top slot in the Seattle rotation, he’s been as good as or better than Hernandez but he’s not priced in the same range and that offers up some great value.

Our Pick
Seattle +138 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.76)