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In MLB take CHI-CUBS +105 to dodge a close win at home today!
In MLB take ATLANTA +115 to be more brave tonight
In NFL Take DALLAS and MIAMI to fly OVER 32!
Los Angeles @ CHICAGO
Los Angeles -115 over CHICAGO
When the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, as it is today, playing the run-line is too risky but wagering against Carlos Villanueva at this price is not. The Dodgers are much undervalued today and we’re on it. Villanueva has experienced the greatest fastball velocity drop vs. 2012 of any NL starting pitcher, a fact that has led to his strikeout rate dip from an acceptable one in 2012 to a rapidly declining one this year. Villanueva has transformed himself into more of a groundball pitcher but even that rate (42%) is not close to being at an elite level. With an 87 mph fastball, that really has been his only choice. The Cubbies have lost Villanueva’s last four starts. He’s also walked 12 batters over his past 25 innings because he’s afraid to come at hitter’s now. Villanueva has a 6.04 ERA over his past five starts with only one of those five being of the pure quality variety. As a starter, Villanueva has nothing but downside and these hot Dodgers can sniff a wounded prey.
Stephen Fife has had a lot of injury woes over the past few years but when he’s healthy he’s damn good. Fife was a third round selection of the Red Sox in ’08 before being sent to Los Angeles at the trade deadline in ’11. He reached the majors in ’12 and started five games. He offers a big and durable frame along with the ability to induce groundball outs. He throws with loose arm action that gives him some projection but he hasn’t realized his true velocity potential. He generally sits in the 88-93 mph range with his quality sinker and he can sometimes touch 95 if he has to. Fife works ahead in the count consistently and rarely puts hitters on base via the walk. In just eight starts with the Dodgers this year he has posted a 2.76 ERA over 46 innings. Fife also has an outstanding groundball/line-drive/fly-ball ratio of 53%/20%29%. Fife has not allowed a home-run in four of his last five starts and absolutely has a great chance to thrive here. The same can’t be said for Villanueva.
Our Pick
Los Angeles -115 (Risking 2.3 units - To Win: 2.00)
Washington @ MILWAUKEE
Washington +102 over MILWAUKEE
The Brewers are a train wreck right now. They’ve lost three in a row and have scored just two runs over that span. Only the Marlins, Astros and White Sox have fewer wins than Milwaukee and only the Astros and White Sox have fewer wins since the beginning of May. The two very nice seasons logged by Kyle Lohse in St. Louis were easily dismissed as a) flukes and b) the result of some wizardry by Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan. Now in his debut season as a Brewer, Lohse is pitching as well as ever, even if the W-L record doesn't show it. Well, sort of. Lohse has never been a dominant pitcher and survives on pinpoint control and the ability of his defense to make plays. His hit and strand rates the past two years plus, including this season are mildly lucky and explain the gap between ERA and xERA. Lohse's hr/f rate has jumped but before you blame Miller Park (+30% LHB HR) know the HR totals have been pretty evenly split home and away. Lohse is coming off three dominant starts in a row in which he’s allowed one earned run over 19 innings. However, those three starts came against the Marlins, Cubs and Padres and the results have him overvalued here. Lohse is 34 years old and has been pretty stable in an otherwise turbulent Brewers rotation but he’s nothing more than a serviceable pitcher on a reeling ball club.
Are the talented Nationals going to put together even one great run this season? This has to be one of the most disappointing seasons ever for a team with this much talent and starting pitching. The Nationals have taken the first two games of this series and have now won five of their last seven. That’s not saying much, especially when considering the opposition but it is a start and they need to keep the momentum going with the first place Braves on deck. Jordan Taylor is getting better with each start. At 24 and no time above A-ball, Jordan was not even ranked in the Nationals top 15 prospects at the start of the year but after his sizzling start to the 2013 season, he quickly moved up the ranks and is beginning to dominate at this level too. This kid can pitch. Overall, he has an elite 58% groundball rate over six starts. He also has pinpoint control that has seen him walk just three batters over his past 20 innings. Only once has Jordan allowed more than three runs in a game. His strikeout rate is also trending the right way. With that, we’ll gladly take our chances on the Nationals taking back a small price here because we get the team in better form with the better offense, bullpen, defense and starter.
Our Pick
Washington +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)
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