11-22-08

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

JOHN RYAN

Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Oklahoma. AiS shows an 86% probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 7 or more points. TT is in a series of weak roles based on the AiS projections; all of which have an 85% probability of occurring in the game. TT is just 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) in road games when they commit 1 more turnover than their opponents since 1992; 29-54 ATS (-30.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Oklahoma is in a series of strong roles noting they are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards over the last 2 seasons; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 26-6 ATS for 81% since 1992. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining >6 and allowing <2 rush yards/attempt last game. Here is a second system that has gone 36-13 for 74% since 2002. Play against road dogs in a game involving two explosive offensive teams scoring >=34 PPG in conference games. Here are some more strong roles that Oklahoma is in for this game. Note that they are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins this season; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after outgaining opposition by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games since 1992. TT is in a horrid role noting they are just 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games since 1992. Take Oklahoma.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

JOHN RYAN

Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Ohio University – AiS shows an 84% probability that Ohio University will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 65% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 44-15 ATS for 75% since 2002. Play on a home team with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season and after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Here is a second system that has gone 38-13 ATS for 75% since 1992. Play against road favorites that are good offensive teams scoring 28-34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG after 7+ games and after scoring 37 points or more last game. This is Ohio’s last home game so with all of the Seniors on this squad you can most assuredly expect a full throttle effort from them. Now, here is a remarkable money line system that has gone 26-7 making 24 units since 1997. Play against a road team versus the money line that are good offensive teams scoring 28-34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG and after 7+ games of the regular season and after allowing 37 points or more last game. This Ohio team nearly upset Central Michigan. Had it not been for a devastating hit late in the 4th quarter at the goal line, Ohio would have taken the lead and possibly won the game. They were also up 14-6 over then 3rd ranked Ohio State in week 2. They also had Temple shutout till late in the 4th quarter and allowed 2 TD to lose 14-10. So, you can see that this is a much better team than the 2-8 record would indicate, but they have taken the season to learn how to complete a full game. Against Akron they will accomplish this with the leadership of their Seniors. Take Ohio and consider an optional money line wager as well, but not to exceed 2.5* units.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

JOHN RYAN

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Syracuse – Wow, could you imagine if somehow Syracuse would upset the Irish? Well, it has happened before with several double digit dogs who won SU again this year. I think the one that comes closest to this game was a monumental upset when O’le Miss defeated Florida at the swap as 24 point dogs. The projections for this game are a near mirror image of that one. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 40-18 ATS for 69% since 1997. Play against a home team that is a good team winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season and in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. ND is in a series of poor roles for this home game noting they are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game. since 1992; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games versus mistake free teams 42 or less penalty yards per game since 1992. Take Syracuse
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[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Youngstown Connection
Date: Saturday, November 22, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed Selection:
High Noon Play
NC State +11 Noon EST

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Lee Kostroski
TITLE: 10* CFB Midwest Game - 82% lifetime!!
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 10* College FB Midwest Game of year - Penn State (-) vs. Michigan State, 3:30 PM EST $75.00

The Nittany Lions are playing for the right to go to their first Rose Bowl since 1994. Their calling it the biggest game in Beaver Stadium since PSU joined the Big Ten back in 1993. It’s also Senior Day for 17 players on the Penn State team and they can be the first class to win two Big Ten titles (they earned one in 2005 also). On top of that, tickets are going for astronomical prices as many believe this could be Joe Paterno’s final home game as head coach. Of course that is all speculation, however either way the atmosphere will be beyond electric.

Now to the game on the field. We feel that PSU is the FAR superior team here and apparently so do the odds makers who’ve made them a two TD chalk, despite the fact that MSU is also playing for a share of the conference title. However, a PSU win puts them in the Rose Bowl while if the Spartans win (they won’t) they also need Michigan to win at Ohio State for them to jet off to California. That won’t happen either. Penn State has huge advantages on BOTH sides of the ball here. On offense they are averaging 442 yards per game (6.39 yards per play) ranking them 18th nationally. MSU puts up 355 YPG (just 5.11 yards per play) which puts them in the bottom half of all college teams at 66th. The defensive side of the ball is a very similar story. The Nittany Lions are in the top 10 in EVERY major defensive category (yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed). Penn State is 4th nationally in overall defense giving up just 258 total yards (4.15 yards per play). The Spartans give up 340 yards per game (5.04 yards per play) which is again middle of the pack in the NCAA. Thus in the yards per play differential PSU is a great +2.24 while MSU is a very mediocre +0.07. That’s quite a large disparity with basically and entire season of statistics.

While the Spartans are 9-2, we’ve been rather unimpressed for the most part. While they have won six of their seven conference games, MSU has actually been out gained in four of those seven games. The only teams they have out yarded in conference play were Michigan, Purdue and Indiana who just happen to sit at 9th, 10th and 11th place in the conference going into this weekend. Their Big Ten road schedule has been very easy for the most part. Their three conference road games have come at Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern. The Spartans win at Northwestern was a gift as the Wildcats lost despite out gaining MSU by 162 total yards.

This Spartan team is carried by their running game. RB Javon Ringer is very good, but he is really starting to wear down late in the season. Watching him against Wisconsin a few weeks ago, he simply doesn’t have the burst he had earlier in the year and it’s not even close. That’s what happens when a team leans on a tailback to carry the ball 30+ times each game. He had just 54 yards on 21 carries in that game vs. the Badgers. He cracked the 100-yard barrier in his most recent game vs. Purdue, however he only averaged 3.7 yards per carry in that game. And that was against a Boilermaker defense that ranks 96th in the nation in rush defense. Now he faces a top 10 rush defense on the road. We realize that MSU had two weeks off, however that isn’t enough time to recoup from getting beat up for 11 straight games. To push the point home even more, MSU has actually been out rushed in 4 of their last 6 games and they have somehow gotten by because of the level of competition and mistakes by the opposition. Not here. They don’t want to rely on QB Brian Hoyer who has completed just 49% of his passes this year but they will have to in this game. MSU’s luck runs out at Beaver Stadium on Saturday.

Many are concerned that Penn State’s offense is struggling. We don’t agree. They haven’t been putting up 40+ PPG as they were earlier, however much of that is due to the defenses they have faced. Ohio State held them to 13 and the Bucks are excellent on defense. Iowa held them to 23, however PSU had five scoring opportunities in the red zone but settled for field goals. They simply weren’t efficient @ Iowa. Last week they were in gigantic letdown mode vs. Indiana after their first loss of the season @ Iowa. They only scored 10 points in the first half before snapping out of their “haze” and rolling to a 34-7 win. With the shock of their first loss now two weeks behind them and smell of roses right in front of them, this will be the PSU team we saw a month ago. They will ROLL to a big win vs. a vastly over rated Michigan State team.

Best of Luck, Lee.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

DOC

5 Unit Play.Take Purdue Boilermakers -11 over Indiana Hoosiers

The battle for the Old Oaken Bucket will have extra meaning this year, as it will be Coach Joe Tillers last game at Purdue. His style of offense caught on fast in the Big 10 and everybody seems to think he will finish his career with a blowout victory. That scares me a little, but the fact remains that Purdue has a huge talent edge over their in-state rival. The defense for Purdue has played well this season, but the offense has not been up to Tillers standard. That being said, they certainly have the talent with QB Painter, as he played his best game of the season last week against Iowa completing 24 of 30 passes. I look for another big game out of this senior, especially since Indiana is banged up on defense. Purdue sends Coach Tiller out in style, as we collect in the process as well. Purdue 42, Indiana 17.

4 Unit Play.Take Michigan State Spartans +14 over Penn State Nittany Lions

The Big 10 Championship and a trip to the Rose Bowl is on the line for Penn State in this battle. I still believe that Penn State is the best team in the conference; however, one has to wonder if they peaked against Ohio State. Their offense has not been crisped and passing attack has been non-existent. As for the Spartans, QB Hoyer has stepped up against Penn State throwing for over 500 yards and 5 touchdowns in his career against them. Cold weather could be a factor and look for the Spartans to unleash Ringer, as the last three meetings have been decided by nine or less points. Lions win in a real battle. Penn State 20, Michigan State 17.


4 Unit Play.Take NC State Wolf Pack +11 over North Carolina Tar Heels

These are the type of games that emotion becomes a big factor, as this battle of North Carolina is renewed. UNC does not have a big home field advantage since it is just a bus ride away from Raleigh. State struggle in the middle of the season but has seen new light especially since QB Wilson took over under center. As for the Tar Heels, their offense has struggle of late which makes me believe that this will be a low scoring game and getting double digits is too good to pass up. NC State is 6-0 ATS in conference play and this will be a hard fought game that goes down to the wire. UNC 24, NC State 21.


4 Unit Play.Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish -20 over Syracuse Orange

The Irish need to pound someone and will be able to do that against one of the worst teams in the country. Coach Weiss took over the play calling last week and the offense responded well; however, five turnovers did them in. Their defense has played much better in 2008 then 2007 and I think that is the real key here. The Orange have very little firepower and a lame duck coach who is gone after the season is completed. Irish need this win and certainly will not be looking ahead to USC, since this game gives them seven wins. Weiss, the players, and the fans all need a game that they dominate and light it up for sixty minutes and that will be the case today. Notre Dame 42, Syracuse 10.


4 Unit Play.Take Utah Utes -7 over BYU Cougars

This is one of the marquee games in the country this weekend, as two of the top teams in the MWC do battle in this battle of Utah. It also has two of the top quarterbacks in the country in Hall and Johnson. They may be equal in talent; however, I think Johnson has the best cast around him. Utah also has an edge on defense, as they are 24th in country (BYU is 73rd) and this is the main factor in my choice. I look for Utah to put pressure on QB Hall all day long. Since 1999, BYU has not fared well against ranked teams and that trend will continue here, as Utah marches onto the BCS. Utah 38, BYU 24.


4 Unit Play.Take Ole Miss Rebels +4 over LSU Tigers

Never like the fact of going against LSU in Baton Rouge; however, this visitor is the time to pull the trigger. Rebels have already won in Florida and Arkansas and LSU has played poorly since their close loss to Alabama. LSU was being dominated by Troy last week before making a late rally to win the game. They still do not have a quarterback and although they have won six straight in this series, four have come by three points or less. Ole Miss did outgain LSU last year, 466-396 and Coach Nutt will end the streak and pull the upset. Ole Miss 28, LSU 24

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Keith Martin Sports

CBB
Kansas st +1.5
Clemson -3.5 (Best Bet)
Boston Coll. -2
New Mexico -15

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

NC Power Sweep

4* Purdue
3* Notre Dame
3* Ohio

Other Selections

2* Unlv
2* Ohio St
2* Mississippi

Underdog POW

Tennessee +3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Tommy Rider

3* tcu -19

2* okla - 6.5

2* nittany lions/ mich st over 48

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Michigan State Spartans @ Penn State Nittany Lions - Saturday November 22, 2008 3:30 pm
Detail: IC'S CHALK DESTROYAL!
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) ATS: Penn State Nittany Lions -14.5 (-105)




Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Florida State Seminoles @ Maryland Terrapins - Saturday November 22, 2008 12:00 pm
Detail: IC'S ACC NEAR PICK-EM WINNER!
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: Maryland Terrapins +1 (-105

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Erin Ryning

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20*over purdue/ indiana.
10*army
10*virginia

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Christian Alexander's Pick Pack

Premium Plays
Matchup: Boston College at Wake Forest
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Wake Forest (-2.0 -110)
Line Source: Sports.com
Posted on: November 20, 2008 @ 6:15:13 PM EST

Wake can not afford another loss in conference or all hopes for making a trip to the ACC Championship will be lost.

No question the Deacons have struggled recently but they are dangerous at home and QB Riley Skinner should have success against a soft BC secondary. Look for WR D.J. Boldin, who leads the ACC in catches per game with an average of 6.1 to have a big game.

The Eagles won't be able to slug it out in the trenches here and will suffer a close loss.




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Matchup: Stanford at California
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Stanford (+9 -110)
Line Source: Sports.com
Posted on: November 20, 2008 @ 6:52:12 PM EST

Stanford has been stuck on five wins for the past couple weeks, meaning they are on the doorstep of being eligible but not yet there. A trip to Oregon and a visit from the Trojans have the Cardinal on a mini two- game losing streak. Coach Jim Harbaugh knows his squad has one game left to reach the postseason so expect max effort from Stanford.

Cal is on a two-game losing streak as well and if they aren't careful, could end the season with three straight losses.

Look for Stanford QB Tavita Pritchard to give the Golden Bears defense fits, especially with his scrambling ability. As long as Pritchard limits his mistakes - and most importantly, turnovers - Harbaugh and company should be right there at the end.

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Matchup: BYU at Utah
Time: 6:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: BYU (+7 -110)
Line Source: Sports.com
Posted on: November 20, 2008 @ 6:31:05 PM EST

You have to go all the way back to 1994 to find the last time these two hooked up when both were ranked. But I promise you this, there wasn't as much on the line then as there will be this Saturday.

The key stat here to me is this: Each of the last three Utah-BYU games have come down to the final minute.

Outside of a blemish at TCU, the Cougars have been every bit as impressive as Utah if not more.

Too many points in a game that could go either way.

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Matchup: Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Texas Tech (+7 -110)
Line Source: Sports.com
Posted on: November 20, 2008 @ 6:42:52 PM EST

This line is all about respect. Too much for the Sooners and too little for the Red Raiders.

Seriously, if Texas Tech hasn't proved by now that they have the best offense in the land, I'm not sure what else they can do.

So you have to look at defense. Yes, historically that has been a weak spot with the Red Raiders. But this year is different, just look at what they did to Oklahoma State and Texas - at least for a half.

Granted, those two games were both at Texas Tech and this is on the road in Norman - and make no mistake, it will be hostile.

But if that's the only difference - and I think it is - it's not worth seven points.

I'll take my chances with the superior offense and a very well coached team.



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Member Plays
Matchup: Indiana at Purdue
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Indiana (+11 -110)
Line Source: Sports.com
Posted on: November 20, 2008 @ 6:23:06 PM EST

Any game that plays for something called the "Old Oaken Bucket" is good by me.

The question I have here is how the hell is Purdue favored by 11 points over anyone? Yes, Indy has been pretty pitiful at 3-8, 1-6 but guess what? That's the exact same record that Purdue has. The Boilers have only beaten one team by double digits and that was Northern Colorado.

Last time I checked, home field advantage was worth three points, not ten. Throw the records out when these two teams play and guess what? I'm gonna take a taste of the Hoosiers on the money line as well.

Strong play here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Bullseye
Member Plays
Matchup: West Virginia at Louisville
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Louisville (7-110)
West Virginia needs to win out if it is to take down the Big East championship and a BCS bowl bid, which makes this game against a .500 Louisville team crucial. Despite Louisville's disappointing play, 1-4 in the Big East, winning at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium is never easy and they have called for a "Black Out", where everyone wears black to the game. The last time WVU came to Louisville it was the same scenario and the Cardinals prevailed. The two teams have met 10 times and WVU has won seven of them. There have been some memorable games in the series, including WVU's initial Big East victory over Louisville in overtime and last year's 38-31 shootout that wasn't decided until QB Patrick White broke loose for a 50-yard run in the closing minutes. That capped a day in which he had 328 total yards. White again will hold the key to this game, for if he can find his running magic again the Mountaineers will be able to keep Louisville's strong offense off the field.

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Matchup: Arkansas at Miss. State
Time: 2:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Miss. State (1.5-110)
Arkansas at Mississippi State, Nov. 22 -- The Razorbacks enter needing to win out to go bowling under first-year coach Bobby Petrino. The Bulldogs are still trying to find answers on offense as coach Sylvester Croom comes under increasing scrutiny.

WR Arceto Clark -- May see more time. He caught a pass and had a carry against Alabama, bringing the total plays in which he's touched the football this year to six. The coaching staff has drawn scrutiny over whether the burning of his redshirt was justified.

C J.C. Brignone -- He will probably return to center this week. Look for Michael Gates at left guard and Craig Jenkins at right. Brignone played left guard last week with backup D.J. Looney starting at center.

LB Dominic Douglas -- Continues to persevere as the defense's team leader. He had six tackles in the first quarter last week alone and promises no quit when Arkansas comes to town. He has battled an ankle and a groin injury recently.

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Matchup: Iowa State at Kansas State
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Kansas State (-9.5-110)
Since the inception of the Big 12, outgoing coaches in the league have gone 7-14 in their final games. That's a mark Ron Prince will impact in his final game as the Wildcats try to prevent the Cyclones from dragging them into the North Division cellar. The matchup pits the two worst defenses in the conference and the teams with the longest losing streaks, nine for Iowa State and five for Kansas State. One attribute for the Cyclones is they lead the league with 26 takeaways. QB Austen Arnaud is developing as a passer for Iowa State. The sophomore ranks 28th nationally with 2,352 yards

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Matchup: Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Oklahoma (-6.5-110)
Texas Tech at Oklahoma, Nov. 22. -- The biggest game in the nation, the Red Raiders are playing to reach the Big 12 championship game and possibly the national championship game, while an Oklahoma victory can throw the Big 12 South division into a tiebreaker scenario that would involve Texas Tech, Texas and Oklahoma.

QB Sam Bradford -- For a change, the Sooner will share the field with another quarterback of similar credentials in Tech's Graham Harrell. Still, Bradford has a case as the nation's best quarterback, having completed 67.9f his passes, 38 for touchdowns against six interceptions. He is averaging 340 yards through the air each game and, maybe his most impressive number, more than 10 yards per attempt: 330 attempts, 3,406 yards.
__________________

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Al DeMarco
Saturday's Pick
10 Dime - Arizona



You might recall that last week in this space I had told you to back Oregon State as my PAC-10 Game of the Year at home against California. Although the Beavers delivered with a 34-21 win, recovering from an early 7-0 deficit, I was surprised that the game was that close considering they were playing in Corvallis and the Golden Bears had been struggling offensively because of quarterback issues.



No doubt Oregon State has dominated this series, but then again, this is the best and most competitive team Arizona has fielded in a number of years. Yes, the Wildcats are coming off a 55-45 loss at Oregon last Saturday, a game they trailed 48-17 early before making an aborted comeback bid. To be honest, their rally didn't impress me at all because the Ducks simply relaxed after taking such a big first-half lead. Look for S. Mingee to have a standout performance and gain much support from the home fans. Clearly Arizona came out with a lack of focus after become bowl eligible a week earlier with a road win versus Washington State.



So why the change of heart on my part on week later regarding Oregon State? Keep in mind the Beavers' two wins this season on the road came against Washington and UCLA, two teams that are a combined 4-16 SU this season. Plus, this game is being played on a grass field, which will affect their biggest asset offensively: their speed.



Arizona is a much better team at home than on the road, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in Tucson this season where they've covered by a combined 79.5 points. Their two best performances came in league games against Southern Cal (a hard-fought 17-10 loss) and California (a 42-27 win that wasn't as close as the final score indicated). Note that was the same Cal team that Oregon State struggled with at home last Saturday.



Oregon State's defense is coming off a five-sack performance - their third in five games - against California, but Arizona quarterback Willie Tuitama (328 yards, 2 TDs vs. Oregon last week; 2,321 yards, 18 TDs this season) has the mobility to keep the pass rush at bay. And unlike previous seasons, he's getting ground support from the likes of Nic Grigsby, who has rushed for 941 yards to pace the PAC-10's second-ranked scoring offense, a unit that averages 39.7 points a game.



Expect a high-scoring game with the Wildcats prevailing in a shooting in the desert by seven.

$mcming$

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-22-08

Tim Trushel

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20* tennessee
10*pitts.
10*iowa st.
10*byu
10*arizona